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Comparative labor law journal : a publication of the U.S. National Branch of the International Society for Labor Law and Social Security [and] the Wharton School, and the Law School of the University of Pennsylvania最新文献

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Bayesian Imputation for Anonymous Visits in CRM Data 客户关系管理数据中匿名访问的贝叶斯估计
Julie Novak, E. M. Feit, Shane T. Jensen, Eric T. Bradlow
Targeting individual consumers has become a hallmark of direct and digital marketing, particularly as it has become easier to identify customers as they interact repeatedly with a company. However, across a wide variety of contexts and tracking technologies, companies find that customers can not be consistently identified which leads to a substantial fraction of anonymous visits in any CRM database. We develop a Bayesian imputation approach that allows us to probabilistically assign anonymous sessions to users, while ac- counting for a customer’s demographic information, frequency of interaction with the firm, and activities the customer engages in. Our approach simultaneously estimates a hierarchical model of customer behavior while probabilistically imputing which customers made the anonymous visits. We present both synthetic and real data studies that demonstrate our approach makes more accurate inference about individual customers’ preferences and responsiveness to marketing, relative to common approaches to anonymous visits: nearest- neighbor matching or ignoring the anonymous visits. We show how companies who use the proposed method will be better able to target individual customers, as well as infer how many of the anonymous visits are made by new customers.
针对个人消费者已经成为直接营销和数字营销的一个标志,尤其是随着客户与公司的反复互动,识别客户变得越来越容易。然而,在各种各样的环境和跟踪技术中,公司发现客户不能被一致地识别,这导致在任何CRM数据库中都有很大一部分匿名访问。我们开发了一种贝叶斯归算方法,该方法允许我们概率地将匿名会话分配给用户,同时计算客户的人口统计信息、与公司互动的频率以及客户参与的活动。我们的方法同时估计了客户行为的层次模型,同时概率地估算了哪些客户进行了匿名访问。我们提供了合成和真实的数据研究,证明我们的方法可以更准确地推断个人客户的偏好和对营销的响应,相对于常见的匿名访问方法:最近邻匹配或忽略匿名访问。我们展示了使用该方法的公司如何能够更好地定位个人客户,并推断出有多少匿名访问是由新客户进行的。
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引用次数: 4
The Future of Large, Internationally Active Banks: Does Scale Define the Winners? 在国际上活跃的大型银行的未来:规模决定赢家吗?
Joseph P. Hughes, Loretta J. Mester
Our research as well as that by other authors has found scale economies at all sizes of banks and the largest scale economies at the largest banks – that is, larger banks are able to provide products at lower average cost than smaller banks. While the earlier literature found that scale economies are exhausted beyond a modest size – no larger than $100 billion and usually much smaller – a number of recent studies have found scale economies beyond this point, in fact, economies that increase with size. Based on a model that appropriately accounts for endogenous risk-taking and controls for any cost-of-funding advantages conferred on large banks, we find that technological factors, not advantages in funding costs, account for their scale economies. The literature does not indicate whether these benefits of larger size outweigh the potential costs in terms of systemic risk that large scale may impose on the financial system. However, if public policy considerations imply that society would be better off with smaller financial institutions, restrictions that limit the size of financial institutions, if effective, may put large banks at a competitive disadvantage in global markets where competitors are not similarly constrained. Moreover, size restrictions may not be effective since they work against market forces and create incentives for firms to avoid them. Avoiding the restrictions could thereby push risk-taking outside of the more regulated financial sector without necessarily reducing systemic risk. If such limits were imposed, intensive monitoring for such risks would be required. These factors need to be considered when evaluating policies concerning financial institution scale.
我们的研究以及其他作者的研究发现,各种规模的银行都存在规模经济,而最大的银行存在最大的规模经济——也就是说,大银行能够以比小银行更低的平均成本提供产品。虽然早期的文献发现,规模经济超过适度规模(不超过1000亿美元,通常更小)就会枯竭,但最近的一些研究发现,规模经济超过了这一点,事实上,经济随着规模的增长而增长。基于一个模型,该模型适当地解释了内源性风险承担和对赋予大型银行的任何融资成本优势的控制,我们发现,技术因素,而不是融资成本优势,解释了它们的规模经济。文献并没有表明,就大规模可能给金融体系带来的系统性风险而言,这些更大规模的收益是否超过了潜在成本。然而,如果公共政策考虑暗示,社会将更好地与较小的金融机构,限制金融机构的规模的限制,如果有效的话,可能会使大型银行在竞争对手不受类似限制的全球市场上处于竞争劣势。此外,规模限制可能并不有效,因为它们违背了市场力量,并为企业创造了避免规模限制的动机。因此,避免这些限制可能会将冒险行为推到监管更严格的金融部门之外,而不一定会降低系统性风险。如果实行这种限制,就需要对这种风险进行密切监测。在评价金融机构规模相关政策时,需要考虑这些因素。
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引用次数: 1
Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast Unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You 再次重申预测的黄金法则:你希望别人怎样预测你,你就怎样预测别人
K. Green, J. Armstrong, A. Graefe
The Golden Rule of Forecasting is a general rule that applies to all forecasting problems. The Rule was developed using logic and was tested against evidence from previously published comparison studies. The evidence suggests that a single violation of the Golden Rule is likely to increase forecast error by 44%. Some commentators argue that the Rule is not generally applicable, but do not challenge the logic or evidence provided. While further research might provide useful findings, available evidence justifies adopting the Rule now. People with no prior training in forecasting can obtain the substantial benefits of following the Golden Rule by using the Checklist to identify biased and unscientific forecasts at little cost.
预测的黄金法则是一条适用于所有预测问题的通用法则。该规则是利用逻辑制定的,并与先前发表的比较研究的证据进行了检验。有证据表明,对黄金法则的一次违反可能会使预测误差增加44%。一些评论家认为该规则并不普遍适用,但并不质疑所提供的逻辑或证据。虽然进一步的研究可能会提供有用的结果,但现有证据证明现在就通过该规则是合理的。没有事先接受过预测培训的人可以通过使用清单以很小的成本识别有偏见和不科学的预测,从而获得遵循黄金法则的实质性好处。
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引用次数: 7
Are All Spillovers Created Equal? A Network Perspective on IT Labor Movements 所有溢出效应都是平等的吗?IT工人运动的网络视角
Lynn Wu, Fujie Jin, L. Hitt
This study examines how characteristics of a firm’s labor-flow network affect firm productivity. Using employee job histories, we construct inter-firm labor-flow networks for both IT-labor and non-IT labor and analyze how a firm’s network structure for the two types of labor affects firm performance. We find that hiring IT workers from a structurally-diverse network of firms can substantially improve firm productivity, which is likely due to the novel and non-redundant information provided in such networks. Interestingly, we find the opposite effects for hiring non-IT labor, which is likely due to a structurally- cohesive network enabling frequent and repeated exposure to a common knowledge base that is beneficial for implementing complementary organizational practices especially when they are often complex and tacit. Together, these results demonstrate the importance of incorporating a network perspective in understanding the full impact of spillover effects from organizational hiring activities.
本研究考察了企业劳动力流动网络的特征如何影响企业生产率。利用员工的工作历史,我们构建了it劳动力和非it劳动力的企业间劳动力流动网络,并分析了两种类型劳动力的企业网络结构如何影响企业绩效。我们发现,从结构多样化的企业网络中雇佣IT工人可以大大提高企业的生产率,这可能是由于这种网络中提供了新颖和非冗余的信息。有趣的是,我们发现雇佣非it劳动力会产生相反的效果,这可能是由于一个结构上有凝聚力的网络,使得频繁和重复地暴露于公共知识库,这有利于实现互补的组织实践,特别是当它们通常是复杂和隐性的时候。总之,这些结果表明,在理解组织招聘活动的溢出效应的全面影响时,纳入网络视角的重要性。
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引用次数: 10
Simple Contracts with Adverse Selection and Moral Hazard 具有逆向选择和道德风险的简单契约
D. Gottlieb, Humberto Moreira
We study a principal–agent model with moral hazard and adverse selection. Risk‐neutral agents with limited liability have arbitrary private information about the distribution of outputs and the cost of effort. We show that under a multiplicative separability condition, the optimal mechanism offers a single contract. This condition holds, for example, when output is binary. If the principal's payoff must also satisfy free disposal and the distribution of outputs has the monotone likelihood ratio property, the mechanism offers a single debt contract. Our results generalize if the output distribution is “close” to multiplicatively separable. Our model suggests that offering a single contract may be optimal in environments with adverse selection and moral hazard when agents are risk‐neutral and have limited liability.
研究了一个具有道德风险和逆向选择的委托代理模型。具有有限责任的风险中立代理具有关于产出分布和努力成本的任意私有信息。我们证明了在乘法可分性条件下,最优机制只提供一个契约。例如,当输出为二进制时,此条件成立。如果本金的支付也必须满足自由处置,且产出的分配具有单调似然比性质,则该机制提供单一的债务契约。我们的结果推广如果输出分布是“接近”乘可分的。我们的模型表明,在存在逆向选择和道德风险的环境中,当代理人风险中立且责任有限时,提供单一契约可能是最优的。
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引用次数: 23
Rational Groupthink 理性的群体思维
Matan Harel, Elchanan Mossel, P. Strack, O. Tamuz
We study how long-lived rational agents learn from repeatedly observing a private signal and each others’ actions. With normal signals, a group of any size learns more slowly than just four agents who directly observe each others’ private signals in each period. Similar results apply to general signal structures. We identify rational groupthink—in which agents ignore their private signals and choose the same action for long periods of time—as the cause of this failure of information aggregation.
我们研究长寿的理性主体如何通过反复观察私人信号和彼此的行为来学习。在使用正常信号的情况下,任何规模的团队都比四个智能体在每个时间段直接观察彼此的私人信号学习得慢。类似的结果也适用于一般的信号结构。我们认为,理性的群体思维——在这种情况下,代理人忽略了他们的私人信号,并在很长一段时间内选择相同的行动——是导致信息聚合失败的原因。
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引用次数: 16
Will They Take the Money and Work? An Empirical Analysis of People's Willingness to Delay Claiming Social Security Benefits for a Lump Sum 他们会拿钱和工作吗?人们延迟领取一次性社会保障福利意愿的实证分析
R. Maurer, O. Mitchell, Ralph Rogalla, Tatjana Schimetschek
This paper investigates whether exchanging the Social Security delayed retirement credit, currently paid as an increase in lifetime annuity benefits, for a lump sum would induce later claiming and additional work. We show that people would voluntarily claim about half a year later if the lump sum were paid for claiming any time after the Early Retirement Age, and about two-thirds of a year later if the lump sum were paid only for those claiming after their Full Retirement Age. Overall, people will work one-third to one-half of the additional months, compared to the status quo. Those who would currently claim at the youngest ages are likely to be most responsive to the offer of a lump sum benefit.
本文调查了将社会保障延迟退休信贷(目前作为终身年金福利的增加而支付)一次性交换是否会导致以后的索赔和额外的工作。我们表明,如果一次性付款是在提前退休年龄之后的任何时间支付的,人们会在大约半年后自愿申请,如果一次性付款只支付给那些在完全退休年龄之后申请的人,大约三分之二年后。总的来说,与现状相比,人们将多工作三分之一到半个月。那些目前在最年轻的年龄申请的人可能对一次性福利的提议反应最积极。
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引用次数: 13
The Effect of the Domestic Production Activities Deduction on Corporate Payout Behavior 国内生产活动扣除对企业股利行为的影响
Jennifer L. Blouin, Linda K. Krull, Casey M Schwab
The American Jobs Creation Act of 2004 created a tax holiday allowing firms to repatriate foreign earnings at a reduced tax rate and a domestic production activities deduction (DPAD) to encourage domestic investment. We investigate whether the DPAD affects firms’ decisions to use repatriated earnings to increase investment versus shareholder payout. We find that firms receiving an incremental benefit from the DPAD decrease payout by approximately $7.2 billion whereas firms receiving no incremental benefit from the DPAD increase payout by approximately $18.3 billion. This suggests that, under certain conditions, firms retain repatriated funds which may lead to increased domestic investment.
2004年的《美国创造就业法案》(American Jobs Creation Act)设立了免税期,允许企业以较低的税率将海外收入汇回国内,并实行国内生产活动扣减(DPAD),以鼓励国内投资。我们调查了DPAD是否会影响公司使用汇回收益来增加投资与股东支付的决定。我们发现,从DPAD中获得增量收益的公司减少了约72亿美元的支出,而没有从DPAD中获得增量收益的公司增加了约183亿美元的支出。这表明,在某些条件下,公司保留汇回的资金,这可能导致国内投资增加。
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引用次数: 10
Central Bank Policy Impacts on the Distribution of Future Interest Rates 中央银行政策对未来利率分布的影响
Douglas T. Breeden, R. Litzenberger
The century low, near-zero short-term interest rates in the USA, Euro Area, the UK and Japan after the Great Recession of 2008/2009 and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis of 2010-2013 make the non-normality and non-lognormality of short-term interest rates quite clear. To uncover the changing implicit state prices and risk-neutral densities for future short-term interest rates, we use the prices of interest rate caps and floors with various strike rates and maturities from 2 to 10 years. We show that butterfly spreads of time spreads of cap and floor prices give sensible implied risk-neutral densities and state prices that reflect key moves made by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The state prices and risk-neutral densities computed are largely distribution-free, preference-free and model-free results, building from the arbitrage-based computations of state prices from option prices that were presented in Breeden and Litzenberger (1978).
2008/2009年经济大衰退和2010-2013年欧洲主权债务危机之后,美国、欧元区、英国和日本的短期利率处于世纪低点,接近于零,这使得短期利率的非常态和非对数常态非常明显。为了揭示未来短期利率的隐含国家价格和风险中性密度的变化,我们使用了具有不同执行率和期限从2年到10年的利率上限和下限的价格。我们表明,上限和下限价格的时间点差的蝴蝶式价差给出了合理的隐含风险中性密度和状态价格,反映了美联储、欧洲央行和英格兰银行的关键举措。所计算的状态价格和风险中性密度在很大程度上是无分布、无偏好和无模型的结果,这些结果是基于Breeden和Litzenberger(1978)中对期权价格的基于套利的状态价格计算得出的。
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引用次数: 13
Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Equity Premium 股权溢价的最大似然估计
Efstathios Avdis, Jessica A. Wachter
The equity premium, namely the expected return on the aggregate stock market less the government bill rate, is of central importance to the portfolio allocation of individuals, to the investment decisions of firms, and to model calibration and testing. This quantity is usually estimated from the sample average excess return. We propose an alternative estimator, based on maximum likelihood, that takes into account information contained in dividends and prices. Applied to the postwar sample, our method leads to an economically significant reduction from 6.4% to 5.1%. Simulation results show that our method produces tighter estimates under a range of specifications.
股票溢价,即总股票市场的预期收益减去政府票据利率,对个人的投资组合配置、企业的投资决策以及模型的校准和检验都至关重要。这个数量通常是从样本平均超额收益中估计出来的。我们提出了一个基于最大似然的替代估计器,它考虑了股息和价格中包含的信息。应用于战后的样本,我们的方法导致经济上显著的减少,从6.4%到5.1%。仿真结果表明,我们的方法在一定范围的规格下产生更严格的估计。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Comparative labor law journal : a publication of the U.S. National Branch of the International Society for Labor Law and Social Security [and] the Wharton School, and the Law School of the University of Pennsylvania
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