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Sensitivity of Estimation Precision to Moments with an Application to a Model of Joint Retirement Planning of Couples 估计精度对矩的敏感性及其在夫妻共同退休计划模型中的应用
Pub Date : 2019-07-05 DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2019.3619
Áureo de Paula, T. Jørgensen, Bo E. Honoré
This paper introduces measures for how each moment contributes to the precision of the parameter estimates in GMM settings. For example, one of the measures asks what would happen to the variance of the parameter estimates if a particular moment was dropped from the estimation. The measures are all easy to compute. We illustrate the usefulness of the measures through two simple examples as well as an application to a model of joint retirement planning of couples. We estimate the model using the UK-BHPS, and we find evidence of complementarities in leisure. Our sensitivity measures illustrate that the precision of the estimate of the complementarity is primarily driven by the distribution of the differences in planned retirement dates. The estimated econometric model can be interpreted as a bivariate ordered choice model that allows for simultaneity. This makes the model potentially useful in other applications.
本文介绍了在GMM设置中每个矩对参数估计精度的贡献。例如,其中一个度量询问如果从估计中删除一个特定时刻,参数估计的方差会发生什么。这些度量都很容易计算。我们通过两个简单的例子来说明这些措施的有用性,并将其应用于夫妻共同退休计划的模型。我们使用UK-BHPS估计模型,我们发现了休闲互补性的证据。我们的敏感性测量表明,互补性估计的精度主要是由计划退休日期差异的分布所驱动的。估计的计量经济模型可以解释为允许同时性的二元有序选择模型。这使得该模型在其他应用程序中具有潜在的用途。
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引用次数: 0
Heterogeneous regression models for clusters of spatial dependent data 空间相关数据簇的异构回归模型
Pub Date : 2019-07-04 DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2020.1784989
Zhihua Ma, Yishu Xue, Guanyu Hu
In economic development, there are often regions that share similar economic characteristics, and economic models on such regions tend to have similar covariate effects. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian clustered regression for spatially dependent data in order to detect clusters in the covariate effects. Our proposed method is based on the Dirichlet process which provides a probabilistic framework for simultaneous inference of the number of clusters and the clustering configurations. The usage of our method is illustrated both in simulation studies and an application to a housing cost dataset of Georgia.
在经济发展中,往往存在具有相似经济特征的区域,这些区域的经济模型往往具有相似的协变量效应。在本文中,我们提出了一个贝叶斯聚类回归对空间相关的数据,以检测聚类协变量效应。该方法基于狄利克雷过程,为同时推断聚类数量和聚类结构提供了一个概率框架。我们的方法在模拟研究和格鲁吉亚住房成本数据集的应用中都得到了说明。
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引用次数: 14
Complementarities in the Production of Child Health 儿童保健生产的互补性
Pub Date : 2019-06-14 DOI: 10.1920/WP.IFS.2019.1519
Angus Phimister, B. Malde, Pamela Jervis, Britta Augsburg, Laura Abramovsky
We propose to combine smoothing, simulations and sieve approximations to solve for either the integrated or expected value function in a general class of dynamic discrete choice (DDC) models. We use importance sampling to approximate the Bellman operators defining the two functions. The random Bellman operators, and therefore also the corresponding solutions, are generally non-smooth which is undesirable. To circumvent this issue, we introduce a smoothed version of the random Bellman operator and solve for the corresponding smoothed value function using sieve methods. We show that one can avoid using sieves by generalizing and adapting the `self-approximating' method of Rust (1997) to our setting. We provide an asymptotic theory for the approximate solutions and show that they converge with root-N-rate, where $N$ is number of Monte Carlo draws, towards Gaussian processes. We examine their performance in practice through a set of numerical experiments and find that both methods perform well with the sieve method being particularly attractive in terms of computational speed and accuracy.
我们建议结合平滑,模拟和筛近似来求解一般动态离散选择(DDC)模型中的积分函数或期望值函数。我们使用重要性抽样来近似定义这两个函数的Bellman算子。随机Bellman算子及其相应的解通常是非光滑的,这是不希望看到的。为了解决这个问题,我们引入了随机Bellman算子的平滑版本,并使用筛法求解相应的平滑值函数。我们表明,可以通过推广和适应Rust(1997)的“自逼近”方法来避免使用筛子。我们给出了近似解的渐近理论,并证明了它们以根N速率收敛于高斯过程,其中$N$为蒙特卡罗图的个数。通过一组数值实验验证了这两种方法的实际性能,发现两种方法都表现良好,其中筛法在计算速度和精度方面尤其具有吸引力。
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引用次数: 1
Finite Sample Inference for the Maximum Score Estimand 最大分数估计的有限样本推断
Pub Date : 2019-03-05 DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2020.2220
A. Rosen, T. Ura
We provide a finite sample inference method for the structural parameters of a semiparametric binary response model under a conditional median restriction originally studied by Manski (1975, 1985). Our inference method is valid for any sample size and irrespective of whether the structural parameters are point identified or partially identified, for example due to the lack of a continuously distributed covariate with large support. Our inference approach exploits distributional properties of observable outcomes conditional on the observed sequence of exogenous variables. Moment inequalities conditional on this size n sequence of exogenous covariates are constructed, and the test statistic is a monotone function of violations of sample moment inequalities. The critical value used for inference is provided by the appropriate quantile of a known function of n independent Rademacher random variables. We investigate power properties of the underlying test and provide simulation studies to support the theoretical findings.
我们提供了一种有限样本推理方法,用于在条件中位数限制下半参数二元响应模型的结构参数,该方法最初由Manski(1975,1985)研究。我们的推理方法对任何样本量都有效,无论结构参数是点识别还是部分识别,例如由于缺乏具有大支持度的连续分布协变量。我们的推理方法利用可观察结果的分布特性,条件是外生变量的观察序列。构造了以外生协变量的n序列为条件的矩不等式,检验统计量是样本矩不等式违反的单调函数。用于推理的临界值由n个独立Rademacher随机变量的已知函数的适当分位数提供。我们研究了潜在测试的功率特性,并提供了模拟研究来支持理论发现。
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引用次数: 4
Granger Causality Testing in High-Dimensional VARs: a Post-Double-Selection Procedure 高维var的格兰杰因果检验:后双重选择程序
Pub Date : 2019-02-28 DOI: 10.1093/JJFINEC/NBAB023
Alain Hecq, L. Margaritella, Stephan Smeekes
In this paper we develop an LM test for Granger causality in high-dimensional VAR models based on penalized least squares estimations. To obtain a test which retains the appropriate size after the variable selection done by the lasso, we propose a post-double-selection procedure to partial out the effects of the variables not of interest. We conduct an extensive set of Monte-Carlo simulations to compare different ways to set up the test procedure and choose the tuning parameter. The test performs well under different data generating processes, even when the underlying model is not very sparse. Additionally, we investigate two empirical applications: the money-income causality relation using a large macroeconomic dataset and networks of realized volatilities of a set of 49 stocks. In both applications we find evidences that the causal relationship becomes much clearer if a high-dimensional VAR is considered compared to a standard low-dimensional one.
本文提出了基于惩罚最小二乘估计的高维VAR模型格兰杰因果关系的LM检验。为了获得在套索完成变量选择后保持适当大小的测试,我们提出了一个后双重选择程序,以偏出不感兴趣的变量的影响。我们进行了一组广泛的蒙特卡罗模拟,以比较设置测试程序和选择调谐参数的不同方法。测试在不同的数据生成过程下表现良好,即使底层模型不是很稀疏。此外,我们研究了两个实证应用:使用大型宏观经济数据集的货币收入因果关系和一组49只股票的已实现波动率网络。在这两个应用中,我们发现证据表明,与标准低维VAR相比,如果考虑高维VAR,因果关系变得更加清晰。
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引用次数: 23
Distribution regression with sample selection, with an application to wage decompositions in the UK 样本选择的分布回归,并应用于英国的工资分解
Pub Date : 2018-11-28 DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2018.6818
V. Chernozhukov, Iv'an Fern'andez-Val, Siyi Luo
We develop a distribution regression model under endogenous sample selection. This model is a semiparametric generalization of the Heckman selection model that accommodates much richer patterns of heterogeneity in the selection process and effect of the covariates. The model applies to continuous, discrete and mixed outcomes. We study the identification of the model, and develop a computationally attractive two-step method to estimate the model parameters, where the first step is a probit regression for the selection equation and the second step consists of multiple distribution regressions with selection corrections for the outcome equation. We construct estimators of functionals of interest such as actual and counterfactual distributions of latent and observed outcomes via plug-in rule. We derive functional central limit theorems for all the estimators and show the validity of multiplier bootstrap to carry out functional inference. We apply the methods to wage decompositions in the UK using new data. Here we decompose the difference between the male and female wage distributions into four effects: composition, wage structure, selection structure and selection sorting. After controlling for endogenous employment selection, we still find substantial gender wage gap -- ranging from 21% to 40% throughout the (latent) offered wage distribution that is not explained by observable labor market characteristics. We also uncover positive sorting for single men and negative sorting for married women that accounts for a substantive fraction of the gender wage gap at the top of the distribution. These findings can be interpreted as evidence of assortative matching in the marriage market and glass-ceiling in the labor market.
建立了内生样本选择下的分布回归模型。该模型是Heckman选择模型的半参数推广,该模型在选择过程和协变量的影响中容纳了更丰富的异质性模式。该模型适用于连续、离散和混合结果。我们研究了模型的识别,并开发了一种计算上有吸引力的两步方法来估计模型参数,其中第一步是选择方程的概率回归,第二步包括对结果方程进行选择修正的多个分布回归。我们通过插件规则构建感兴趣的函数的估计器,例如潜在和观察结果的实际和反事实分布。我们给出了所有估计量的泛函中心极限定理,并证明了乘子自举法进行泛函推理的有效性。我们应用的方法工资分解在英国使用新的数据。这里我们将男女工资分布差异分解为构成效应、工资结构效应、选择结构效应和选择排序效应四种效应。在控制了内生就业选择之后,我们仍然发现了巨大的性别工资差距——在整个(潜在)提供的工资分布中,从21%到40%不等,这无法用可观察到的劳动力市场特征来解释。我们还发现,单身男性的积极排序和已婚女性的消极排序,在分布顶端的性别工资差距中占了相当大的一部分。这些发现可以被解释为婚姻市场的分类匹配和劳动力市场的玻璃天花板的证据。
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引用次数: 10
Estimation of a nonseparable heterogenous demand function with shape restrictions and Berkson errors 具有形状限制和Berkson误差的不可分离异质需求函数的估计
Pub Date : 2018-11-26 DOI: 10.1920/wp.cem.2018.6718
R. Blundell, J. Horowitz, M. Parey
Berkson errors are commonplace in empirical microeconomics and occur whenever we observe an average in a specified group rather than the true individual value. In consumer demand this form of measurement error is present because the price an individual pays is often measured by the average price paid by individuals in a specified group (e.g., a county). We show the importance of such measurement errors for the estimation of demand in a setting with nonseparable unobserved heterogeneity. We develop a consistent estimator using external information on the true distribution of prices. Examining the demand for gasoline in the U.S., accounting for Berkson errors is found to be quantitatively important for estimating price effects and for welfare calculations. Imposing the Slutsky shape constraint greatly reduces the sensitivity to Berkson errors.
伯克森误差在实证微观经济学中很常见,每当我们观察到特定群体的平均值而不是真实的个人价值时,就会出现这种误差。在消费者需求中,这种形式的测量误差是存在的,因为个人支付的价格通常是由特定群体(例如,一个国家)中个人支付的平均价格来衡量的。我们展示了在不可分离的未观察异质性的情况下,这种测量误差对估计需求的重要性。我们利用价格真实分布的外部信息开发了一个一致的估计器。考察美国的汽油需求,发现计算柏克森误差对于估计价格影响和福利计算在数量上是重要的。施加Slutsky形状约束大大降低了对Berkson误差的敏感性。
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引用次数: 5
Heterogenous coefficients, discrete instruments, and identification of treatment effects 异质性系数,离散仪器,和治疗效果的识别
Pub Date : 2018-11-23 DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2018.6618
Whitney Newey, S. Stouli
Multidimensional heterogeneity and endogeneity are important features of a wide class of econometric models. We consider heterogenous coefficients models where the outcome is a linear combination of known functions of treatment and heterogenous coefficients. We use control variables to obtain identi cation results for average treatment effects. With discrete instruments in a triangular model we find that average treatment effects cannot be identi ed when the number of support points is less than or equal to the number of coefficients. A sufficient condition for identi fication is that the second moment matrix of the treatment functions given the control is nonsingular with probability one. We relate this condition to identi fication of average treatment effects with multiple treatments.
多维异质性和内生性是一大类计量经济模型的重要特征。我们考虑异质性系数模型,其中结果是已知治疗函数和异质性系数的线性组合。我们使用控制变量来获得平均处理效果的识别结果。对于三角模型中的离散仪器,我们发现当支撑点的数量小于或等于系数的数量时,无法识别平均处理效果。辨识的一个充分条件是给定控制的处理函数的二阶矩矩阵非奇异且概率为1。我们将这种情况与多重处理的平均处理效果的确定联系起来。
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引用次数: 5
Nuclear norm regularized estimation of panel regression models 面板回归模型的核范数正则估计
Pub Date : 2018-10-25 DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2019.1419
M. Weidner, H. Moon
In this paper we investigate panel regression models with interactive fixed effects. We propose two new estimation methods that are based on minimizing convex objective functions. The fi rst method minimizes the sum of squared residuals with a nuclear (trace) norm regularization. The second method minimizes the nuclear norm of the residuals. We establish the consistency of the two resulting estimators. Those estimators have a very important computational advantage compared to the existing least squares (LS) estimator, in that they are de fined as minimizers of a convex objective function. In addition, the nuclear norm penalization helps to resolve a potential identifi cation problem for interactive fixed effect models, in particular when the regressors are low-rank and the number of the factors is unknown. We also show how to construct estimators that are asymptotically equivalent to the least squares (LS) estimator in Bai (2009) and Moon and Weidner (2017) by using our nuclear norm regularized or minimized estimators as initial values for a nite number of LS minimizing iteration steps. This iteration avoids any non-convex minimization, while the original LS estimation problem is generally non-convex, and can have multiple local minima.
本文研究了具有交互固定效应的面板回归模型。提出了两种基于凸目标函数最小化的估计方法。第一种方法通过核(迹)范数正则化最小化残差平方和。第二种方法最小化残差的核范数。我们建立了两个估计量的相合性。与现有的最小二乘(LS)估计器相比,这些估计器具有非常重要的计算优势,因为它们被定义为凸目标函数的最小化。此外,核规范惩罚有助于解决交互式固定效应模型的潜在识别问题,特别是当回归量是低秩的和因素数量未知时。我们还展示了如何构建渐近等效于Bai(2009)和Moon and Weidner(2017)中的最小二乘(LS)估计量的估计量,方法是使用我们的核范数正则化或最小化估计量作为最小二乘迭代步骤的初始值。这种迭代避免了任何非凸最小化,而原始LS估计问题通常是非凸的,并且可以有多个局部最小值。
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引用次数: 43
Using generalized estimating equations to estimate nonlinear models with spatial data 利用广义估计方程对空间数据非线性模型进行估计
Pub Date : 2018-10-13 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3265976
Cuicui Lu, Weining Wang, J. Wooldridge
In this paper, we study estimation of nonlinear models with cross sectional data using two-step generalized estimating equations (GEE) in the quasi-maximum likelihood estimation (QMLE) framework. In the interest of improving efficiency, we propose a grouping estimator to account for the potential spatial correlation in the underlying innovations. We use a Poisson model and a Negative Binomial II model for count data and a Probit model for binary response data to demonstrate the GEE procedure. Under mild weak dependency assumptions, results on estimation consistency and asymptotic normality are provided. Monte Carlo simulations show efficiency gain of our approach in comparison of different estimation methods for count data and binary response data. Finally we apply the GEE approach to study the determinants of the inflow foreign direct investment (FDI) to China.
本文研究了在拟极大似然估计框架下,用两步广义估计方程(GEE)估计具有横截面数据的非线性模型。为了提高效率,我们提出了一个分组估计量来解释潜在创新的空间相关性。我们对计数数据使用泊松模型和负二项II模型,对二元响应数据使用Probit模型来演示GEE过程。在弱依赖假设下,给出了估计一致性和渐近正态性的结果。通过对计数数据和二元响应数据的不同估计方法的比较,蒙特卡罗模拟表明了该方法的效率增益。最后,我们运用GEE方法研究了外商直接投资流入中国的决定因素。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
arXiv: Econometrics
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