Pub Date : 2022-08-01DOI: 10.18800/economia.202201.006
Pablo Pincheira Brown
In this paper we introduce a “power booster factor” for out-of-sample tests of predictability. The relevant econometric environment is one in which the econometrician wants to compare the population Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) of two models: one big nesting model, and another smaller nested model. Although our factor can be used to improve finite sample properties of several out-of-sample tests of predictability, in this paper we focus on the widely used test developed by Clark and West (2006, 2007). Our new test multiplies the Clark and West t-statistic by a factor that should be close to one under the null hypothesis that the short nested model is the true model, but that should be greater than one under the alternative hypothesis that the big nesting model is more adequate. We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the size and power of our approach. Our simulations reveal that the new test is well sized and powerful. In particular, it tends to be less undersized and more powerful than the test by Clark and West (2006, 2007). Although most of the gains in power are associated to size improvements, we also obtain gains in size-adjusted-power. Finally we illustrate the use of our approach when evaluating the ability that an international core inflation factor has to predict core inflation in a sample of 30 OECD economies. With our “power booster factor” more rejections of the null hypothesis are obtained, indicating a strong influence of global inflation in a selected group of these OECD countries.
{"title":"A Power Booster Factor for Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability","authors":"Pablo Pincheira Brown","doi":"10.18800/economia.202201.006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.006","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we introduce a “power booster factor” for out-of-sample tests of predictability. The relevant econometric environment is one in which the econometrician wants to compare the population Mean Squared Prediction Errors (MSPE) of two models: one big nesting model, and another smaller nested model. Although our factor can be used to improve finite sample properties of several out-of-sample tests of predictability, in this paper we focus on the widely used test developed by Clark and West (2006, 2007). Our new test multiplies the Clark and West t-statistic by a factor that should be close to one under the null hypothesis that the short nested model is the true model, but that should be greater than one under the alternative hypothesis that the big nesting model is more adequate. We use Monte Carlo simulations to explore the size and power of our approach. Our simulations reveal that the new test is well sized and powerful. In particular, it tends to be less undersized and more powerful than the test by Clark and West (2006, 2007). Although most of the gains in power are associated to size improvements, we also obtain gains in size-adjusted-power. Finally we illustrate the use of our approach when evaluating the ability that an international core inflation factor has to predict core inflation in a sample of 30 OECD economies. With our “power booster factor” more rejections of the null hypothesis are obtained, indicating a strong influence of global inflation in a selected group of these OECD countries.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91231348","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-01DOI: 10.18800/economia.202201.007
Carlos A. Medel
This article aims to evaluate quantitative inflation forecasts for the Chilean economy, taking advantage of a specific survey of consumer perceptions at the individual microdata level, which, at the same time, is linked to a survey of employment in Chile’s capital city. Thus, it is possible to link, with no error, consumer perceptions and 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts with personal characteristics such as gender, age, educational level, county of living, and the economic sector in which they are currently working. By using a sample ranging from 2005.III to 2018.IV, the results suggest that women aged between 35 and 65 years old, with a college degree, living in the North-eastern part of Santiago (the richest of the city), and working in the Community and Social Services sector are the best forecasters. Men aged between 35 and 65 years old, with a college degree, in a tie living in the North-eastern and South-eastern zones but working in Government and Financial Services and Retail sectors, respectively, come in second. Some econometric exercises reinforce and give greater support to the group of most accurate forecasters and reveal that another group of forecasters, different from the second-best in terms of forecast accuracy, displays the characteristics required of a forecasting variable. Remarkably, this group has the same specifications as the most accurate group, with the only difference being that it is composed of men instead of women. Thus, it looks promising for further consideration. Importantly, a forecast accuracy test reveals that no factor comes out as superior to the naïve random walk forecast used as a benchmark. These results are important because they help to identify the most accurate group when forecasting inflation and, thus, help refine the information provided by the survey for inflation forecasting purposes.
{"title":"Searching for the Best Inflation Forecasters within an Employment Survey: Microdata Evidence from Chile","authors":"Carlos A. Medel","doi":"10.18800/economia.202201.007","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.007","url":null,"abstract":"This article aims to evaluate quantitative inflation forecasts for the Chilean economy, taking advantage of a specific survey of consumer perceptions at the individual microdata level, which, at the same time, is linked to a survey of employment in Chile’s capital city. Thus, it is possible to link, with no error, consumer perceptions and 12-month-ahead inflation forecasts with personal characteristics such as gender, age, educational level, county of living, and the economic sector in which they are currently working. By using a sample ranging from 2005.III to 2018.IV, the results suggest that women aged between 35 and 65 years old, with a college degree, living in the North-eastern part of Santiago (the richest of the city), and working in the Community and Social Services sector are the best forecasters. Men aged between 35 and 65 years old, with a college degree, in a tie living in the North-eastern and South-eastern zones but working in Government and Financial Services and Retail sectors, respectively, come in second. Some econometric exercises reinforce and give greater support to the group of most accurate forecasters and reveal that another group of forecasters, different from the second-best in terms of forecast accuracy, displays the characteristics required of a forecasting variable. Remarkably, this group has the same specifications as the most accurate group, with the only difference being that it is composed of men instead of women. Thus, it looks promising for further consideration. Importantly, a forecast accuracy test reveals that no factor comes out as superior to the naïve random walk forecast used as a benchmark. These results are important because they help to identify the most accurate group when forecasting inflation and, thus, help refine the information provided by the survey for inflation forecasting purposes.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74612062","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-01DOI: 10.18800/economia.202201.002
John W. Keating
Superneutrality of money and the Fisher Effect are well-known theoretical propositions. Empirical tests of long-run versions of these hypotheses have sometimes been done by estimating how a variable responds to a permanent shock to inflation. Substituting inflation for money growth in a test for superneutrality is motivated by the widely-accepted Monetarist precept that “inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” Use of permanent shocks to inflation and money growth for testing such hypotheses has declined, in part because permanent movements in these variables have an endogenous component and so estimates are biased. But the sign of the bias may be determined using credible qualitative assumptions about the effects of structural shocks on variables. These results are used to re-examine multi-country findings from two di˙erent structural VAR models that estimate the effects of permanent inflation shocks. One finding is rejection of superneutrality for output in favor of a long-run positive output effect from permanently higher money growth. The second is rejection of the Fisher Effect in favor of nominal rates moving less than one-for-one in the long run with inflation. Both rejections are shown to be robust to endogenous money growth bias under a wide range of plausible structural assumptions. These results for real interest rates and output provide evidence in support of structural models which give rise to a Mundell-Tobin effect.
{"title":"Implications of Endogenous Money Growth for Some Tests of Superneutrality and the Fisher Effect","authors":"John W. Keating","doi":"10.18800/economia.202201.002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.002","url":null,"abstract":"Superneutrality of money and the Fisher Effect are well-known theoretical propositions. Empirical tests of long-run versions of these hypotheses have sometimes been done by estimating how a variable responds to a permanent shock to inflation. Substituting inflation for money growth in a test for superneutrality is motivated by the widely-accepted Monetarist precept that “inflation is everywhere and always a monetary phenomenon.” Use of permanent shocks to inflation and money growth for testing such hypotheses has declined, in part because permanent movements in these variables have an endogenous component and so estimates are biased. But the sign of the bias may be determined using credible qualitative assumptions about the effects of structural shocks on variables. These results are used to re-examine multi-country findings from two di˙erent structural VAR models that estimate the effects of permanent inflation shocks. One finding is rejection of superneutrality for output in favor of a long-run positive output effect from permanently higher money growth. The second is rejection of the Fisher Effect in favor of nominal rates moving less than one-for-one in the long run with inflation. Both rejections are shown to be robust to endogenous money growth bias under a wide range of plausible structural assumptions. These results for real interest rates and output provide evidence in support of structural models which give rise to a Mundell-Tobin effect.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"20 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81423121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-15DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0013
Pedro Mendes Loureiro
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to first develop indicators for how total inequality, measured through the ANalysis Of GIni (ANOGI) framework, is mapped onto each group – i.e. indicators for each group's share of total inequality. Second, to develop indicators for the sensitivity of total inequality and its structure to changes in the composition of the population. Specifically, to develop indicators for how the Gini index and its ANOGI components react to (1) changes in the population-share of each group, (2) migration between groups, (3) changes in group incomes and (4) income transfers between groups.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the expressions for these indicators are derived analytically. Following this, the indicators are applied to labour-market data from Brazil, contrasting the results to others available in the literature.FindingsThe indicators described above are presented and their characteristics discussed. Empirically, it is illustrated how labour formalisation in Brazil was an inequality-reducing process between 2002 and 2011, contrary to previous incorrect measurements of the phenomenon based on income-source decompositions for Latin American countries.Originality/valueIndicators for how total inequality reacts to changes in group sizes and income were unavailable for the ANOGI framework, which this article provides. The empirical illustration shows how this leads to a reassessment of important inequality dynamics, using the example of labour formalisation in Brazil. Contrary to the existing literature, it is shown how this was a progressive development, with key implications for social and labour-market policy. This framework can be used to assess the impact of diverse processes in the ANOGI methodology.
{"title":"The sensitivity of the Gini to changes in group sizes and mean incomes: an extension of ANOGI applied to Brazil","authors":"Pedro Mendes Loureiro","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0013","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to first develop indicators for how total inequality, measured through the ANalysis Of GIni (ANOGI) framework, is mapped onto each group – i.e. indicators for each group's share of total inequality. Second, to develop indicators for the sensitivity of total inequality and its structure to changes in the composition of the population. Specifically, to develop indicators for how the Gini index and its ANOGI components react to (1) changes in the population-share of each group, (2) migration between groups, (3) changes in group incomes and (4) income transfers between groups.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the expressions for these indicators are derived analytically. Following this, the indicators are applied to labour-market data from Brazil, contrasting the results to others available in the literature.FindingsThe indicators described above are presented and their characteristics discussed. Empirically, it is illustrated how labour formalisation in Brazil was an inequality-reducing process between 2002 and 2011, contrary to previous incorrect measurements of the phenomenon based on income-source decompositions for Latin American countries.Originality/valueIndicators for how total inequality reacts to changes in group sizes and income were unavailable for the ANOGI framework, which this article provides. The empirical illustration shows how this leads to a reassessment of important inequality dynamics, using the example of labour formalisation in Brazil. Contrary to the existing literature, it is shown how this was a progressive development, with key implications for social and labour-market policy. This framework can be used to assess the impact of diverse processes in the ANOGI methodology.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"24 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88527337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-04DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0006
Haydory Akbar Ahmed
PurposeThis paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may incentivize unemployment and may also facilitate better matching in the labor market. Statistical evidence of the presence of a co-movement will thus shed new light on their dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThis research applies time-series econometric approach using monthly data from 1959:1 to 2020:3 to test threshold cointegration and estimate a threshold vector error-correction (TVEC) model. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics.FindingsThe Enders and Siklos (2001) test find evidence of threshold cointegration between the two indicating the presence of long-run co-movement. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics find evidence that the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in labor force participation rate adjust simultaneously to maintain the long-run co-movement above the threshold in the short run. The author also observes the same short-run dynamics for the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in the labor force participation rate for females.Research limitations/implicationsThis model is bi-variate by construction and does not address causality.Practical implicationsThe author argues that the UI program positively impacts the female labor market outcomes, for example, better matching. This finding may explain the upward trend in the labor force participation rate for females in the USA.Social implicationsThe research findings may justify the transfer programs for minority and immigrants.Originality/valueThis is first research that analyzes the UI programs impact on the labor force participation using a macroeconometric approach. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in this genre.
{"title":"Is there a long-run relationship between the unemployment insurance and the labor force participation rate in the USA? A nonlinear analysis","authors":"Haydory Akbar Ahmed","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0006","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper explores the evidence of a long-run co-movement between aggregate unemployment insurance spending and the labor force participation rate in the USA. The unemployment insurance (UI) program tends to expand during an economic downturn and contract during an expansion. UI may incentivize unemployment and may also facilitate better matching in the labor market. Statistical evidence of the presence of a co-movement will thus shed new light on their dynamics.Design/methodology/approachThis research applies time-series econometric approach using monthly data from 1959:1 to 2020:3 to test threshold cointegration and estimate a threshold vector error-correction (TVEC) model. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics.FindingsThe Enders and Siklos (2001) test find evidence of threshold cointegration between the two indicating the presence of long-run co-movement. The estimates from the TVEC model investigating the nature of short-run dynamics find evidence that the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in labor force participation rate adjust simultaneously to maintain the long-run co-movement above the threshold in the short run. The author also observes the same short-run dynamics for the growth in aggregate UI spending and the growth in the labor force participation rate for females.Research limitations/implicationsThis model is bi-variate by construction and does not address causality.Practical implicationsThe author argues that the UI program positively impacts the female labor market outcomes, for example, better matching. This finding may explain the upward trend in the labor force participation rate for females in the USA.Social implicationsThe research findings may justify the transfer programs for minority and immigrants.Originality/valueThis is first research that analyzes the UI programs impact on the labor force participation using a macroeconometric approach. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first study in this genre.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90795121","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-04DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0005
A. K. Dalcin
PurposeThis article aims to analyze the impact that the inclusion of students with disabilities has on the achievement of their schoolmates and to analyze the impact that this inclusion has on the achievement of the students with disabilities themselves.Design/methodology/approachThe author begins investigating how the inclusion of students with disabilities in regular schools affects achievement of schoolmates. To answer this research question, the author explores the natural variation in time in the number of students with disabilities and use data from National Exam of Upper Secondary Education (Enem). Then, the author investigates how the inclusion affects achievement of the students with disabilities themselves and uses propensity score matching methodologies and, again, data from Enem.FindingsThe results show that an additional percentage point in the proportion of students with disabilities would reduce schoolmates' writing scores by a 0.0031 standard deviation. In other subjects, the author finds weak or none evidence of a significant peer effect. In addition, using Propensity Score Matching methodologies, the results show that the mean scores are up to 44% of a standard deviation, which is higher among students with disabilities enrolled in regular schools compared to those who are enrolled in special schools. In summary, the evaluation is that inclusion policies achieve the goal of improving the performance of students with disabilities but such policies have a small and adverse side effect.Originality/valueFor this reason, the present study proposes to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing the impact of the inclusion of students with disabilities on both groups. In addition, this paper contributes to the empirical literature of peer effect with an analysis of the peer effect of students with disabilities per competency. Finally, the article is important given the existence of few articles in Brazil on the topic of education and people with disabilities.
{"title":"Learning together: the effects of inclusion of students with disabilities in mainstream schools","authors":"A. K. Dalcin","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0005","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis article aims to analyze the impact that the inclusion of students with disabilities has on the achievement of their schoolmates and to analyze the impact that this inclusion has on the achievement of the students with disabilities themselves.Design/methodology/approachThe author begins investigating how the inclusion of students with disabilities in regular schools affects achievement of schoolmates. To answer this research question, the author explores the natural variation in time in the number of students with disabilities and use data from National Exam of Upper Secondary Education (Enem). Then, the author investigates how the inclusion affects achievement of the students with disabilities themselves and uses propensity score matching methodologies and, again, data from Enem.FindingsThe results show that an additional percentage point in the proportion of students with disabilities would reduce schoolmates' writing scores by a 0.0031 standard deviation. In other subjects, the author finds weak or none evidence of a significant peer effect. In addition, using Propensity Score Matching methodologies, the results show that the mean scores are up to 44% of a standard deviation, which is higher among students with disabilities enrolled in regular schools compared to those who are enrolled in special schools. In summary, the evaluation is that inclusion policies achieve the goal of improving the performance of students with disabilities but such policies have a small and adverse side effect.Originality/valueFor this reason, the present study proposes to fill this gap in the literature by analyzing the impact of the inclusion of students with disabilities on both groups. In addition, this paper contributes to the empirical literature of peer effect with an analysis of the peer effect of students with disabilities per competency. Finally, the article is important given the existence of few articles in Brazil on the topic of education and people with disabilities.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"148 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79371027","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-30DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0010
Cleomar Gomes da Silva, F. A. Reis Gomes
PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics.Design/methodology/approachTo suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject.FindingsTherefore, this paper proposes a lesson, which consists of three parts, to help undergraduates better understand the subject: (1) a grading exercise to bring the topic closer to students’ lives; (2) a Keynesian and an optimal consumption function, followed by an example based on an unemployment insurance policy; and (3) two optional topics consisting of extensions of the optimal consumption function and some empirical results related to the Lucas Critique.Originality/valueThe Lucas Critique influenced the evolution of research in macroeconomics, but it is not easily grasped in a classroom.
{"title":"Using a consumption function to explain the Lucas Critique to undergraduate students","authors":"Cleomar Gomes da Silva, F. A. Reis Gomes","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0010","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to contribute to the teaching of undergraduate macroeconomics.Design/methodology/approachTo suggest a roadmap, based on a consumption function, to be used by instructors willing to teach the Lucas Critique subject.FindingsTherefore, this paper proposes a lesson, which consists of three parts, to help undergraduates better understand the subject: (1) a grading exercise to bring the topic closer to students’ lives; (2) a Keynesian and an optimal consumption function, followed by an example based on an unemployment insurance policy; and (3) two optional topics consisting of extensions of the optimal consumption function and some empirical results related to the Lucas Critique.Originality/valueThe Lucas Critique influenced the evolution of research in macroeconomics, but it is not easily grasped in a classroom.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"5 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89184960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-27DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0020
Andres Mauricio Gomez Sanchez, Juliana Isabel Sarmiento-Castillo, Claudia Liceth Fajardo-Hoyos
PurposeThe aim of this paper is to disentangle the contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous relationship between regional business cycles and manufacturing productivity in a developing country, namely Colombia.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology is quantitative. To deal with the problems of endogeneity in the production function and with the law motion of productivity (the Markov process), the authors obtain Total Factor Productivity (TFP) through the Wooldridge’s two equations system that can be jointly estimated under the generalized method of moments framework (GMM). Secondly, to avoid bias we estimate regional business cycles through the Kalman filter. Subsequently, we implement an instrumental variables/generalized method of moments regression (IV/GMM) to capture the contemporaneous and endogenous TFP–GDP cycles’ linkage at the regional level. Lastly, to deal with the non-contemporaneous link, the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) for each region. We also present the corresponding impulse–response functions.FindingsThe authors’ general results suggest a remarkable causality, both contemporary and non-contemporary, from productivity to GDP (but not vice versa) in the most developed regions of the country. This implied productivity could influence in the economic growth of regions in short and long runs. These results are different than those expected by economic theory and should be considered by local economic policy makers.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors consider that a more detailed analysis should be carried out at the level of each sector within the manufacturing industry to further clarify these findings.Practical implicationsThe policy should be oriented to obtaining cutting-edge technologies through subsidies, and also should facilitate the access to financial capital and the investment in R&D laboratories. On the other hand, the link with international trade also must be reinforced because the importing of intermediate inputs and exporting of output allow the firms to obtain embodied technologies, also to incur on learning by exporting and importing processes and finally to gain experience and competitiveness in foreign markets.Social implicationsThe causality in the region that provides more than 50% of economic activity within the country (Third region) is only in one directional, from TFP towards gross domestic product (GDP) and not vice versa. As the influence from GDP towards TFP is minimal in the remaining regions, the manufacturing productivity influences both short and long run regional economic growth in Colombia. This implies that economic policy at the level of macro-region must be modified; the government should give additional support to the manufacturing sector, especially in developed regions and for the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (wich represent 92% of manufacturing firms) to increase economic growth in the future.Originality/valueThe autho
{"title":"Regional business cycles and manufacturing productivity: empirical evidence in Colombia","authors":"Andres Mauricio Gomez Sanchez, Juliana Isabel Sarmiento-Castillo, Claudia Liceth Fajardo-Hoyos","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0020","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThe aim of this paper is to disentangle the contemporaneous and non-contemporaneous relationship between regional business cycles and manufacturing productivity in a developing country, namely Colombia.Design/methodology/approachThe methodology is quantitative. To deal with the problems of endogeneity in the production function and with the law motion of productivity (the Markov process), the authors obtain Total Factor Productivity (TFP) through the Wooldridge’s two equations system that can be jointly estimated under the generalized method of moments framework (GMM). Secondly, to avoid bias we estimate regional business cycles through the Kalman filter. Subsequently, we implement an instrumental variables/generalized method of moments regression (IV/GMM) to capture the contemporaneous and endogenous TFP–GDP cycles’ linkage at the regional level. Lastly, to deal with the non-contemporaneous link, the authors estimate a vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VARX) for each region. We also present the corresponding impulse–response functions.FindingsThe authors’ general results suggest a remarkable causality, both contemporary and non-contemporary, from productivity to GDP (but not vice versa) in the most developed regions of the country. This implied productivity could influence in the economic growth of regions in short and long runs. These results are different than those expected by economic theory and should be considered by local economic policy makers.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors consider that a more detailed analysis should be carried out at the level of each sector within the manufacturing industry to further clarify these findings.Practical implicationsThe policy should be oriented to obtaining cutting-edge technologies through subsidies, and also should facilitate the access to financial capital and the investment in R&D laboratories. On the other hand, the link with international trade also must be reinforced because the importing of intermediate inputs and exporting of output allow the firms to obtain embodied technologies, also to incur on learning by exporting and importing processes and finally to gain experience and competitiveness in foreign markets.Social implicationsThe causality in the region that provides more than 50% of economic activity within the country (Third region) is only in one directional, from TFP towards gross domestic product (GDP) and not vice versa. As the influence from GDP towards TFP is minimal in the remaining regions, the manufacturing productivity influences both short and long run regional economic growth in Colombia. This implies that economic policy at the level of macro-region must be modified; the government should give additional support to the manufacturing sector, especially in developed regions and for the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) (wich represent 92% of manufacturing firms) to increase economic growth in the future.Originality/valueThe autho","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"61 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89343408","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-01DOI: 10.1016/j.econ.2022.02.003
A. Orji, D. O. Ekeocha, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, Onyinye I. Anthony‐Orji
{"title":"Monetary policy channels, sectoral outputs and sustainable growth in ECOWAS region: A rigorous analysis and implications for policy","authors":"A. Orji, D. O. Ekeocha, Jonathan E. Ogbuabor, Onyinye I. Anthony‐Orji","doi":"10.1016/j.econ.2022.02.003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econ.2022.02.003","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"os-35 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87419724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-12-31DOI: 10.18800/economia.202102.001
Gabriel Lewis Arrieta Padilla
This paper is oriented to quantify the trade creation and diversion effects in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and the United States. For that purpose, using a disaggregated database at the 10-digit level for Peruvian goods with intervals of 3-years between 2002 and 2018, this article adopts a three-dummy variable methodology that allows the identification of intra-bloc and extra-bloc effects. In addition, a theoretically-founded gravity equation is employed with the incorporation of country-time and time-invariant fixed effects in order to solve common econometric specification problems, such as lack of multilateral resistance terms in modelling, heteroscedasticity of trade data, inclusion of zero trade flows, and endogeneity of trade policy. Estimating with the PPML method for the complete sample and among types of goods (group 1: raw materials and intermediate goods, and group 2: consumer and capital goods), the main results show that the Peru-US FTA generates intra-bloc trade creation for the entire sample and two groups of goods separately. In addition, the FTA produces export trade diversion for the complete sample and group 2, while import trade creation for both groups. In overall, the Peru-USA FTA is an “intra-bloc trade creation agreement” that boosted bilateral trade flows. These effects are considered in order to formulate some policy recommendations for improving the results of this Peruvian FTA.
{"title":"Trade Creation and Diversion Effects under the Free Trade Agreement between Peru and the United States: A Gravitational Analysis","authors":"Gabriel Lewis Arrieta Padilla","doi":"10.18800/economia.202102.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202102.001","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is oriented to quantify the trade creation and diversion effects in the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Peru and the United States. For that purpose, using a disaggregated database at the 10-digit level for Peruvian goods with intervals of 3-years between 2002 and 2018, this article adopts a three-dummy variable methodology that allows the identification of intra-bloc and extra-bloc effects. In addition, a theoretically-founded gravity equation is employed with the incorporation of country-time and time-invariant fixed effects in order to solve common econometric specification problems, such as lack of multilateral resistance terms in modelling, heteroscedasticity of trade data, inclusion of zero trade flows, and endogeneity of trade policy. Estimating with the PPML method for the complete sample and among types of goods (group 1: raw materials and intermediate goods, and group 2: consumer and capital goods), the main results show that the Peru-US FTA generates intra-bloc trade creation for the entire sample and two groups of goods separately. In addition, the FTA produces export trade diversion for the complete sample and group 2, while import trade creation for both groups. In overall, the Peru-USA FTA is an “intra-bloc trade creation agreement” that boosted bilateral trade flows. These effects are considered in order to formulate some policy recommendations for improving the results of this Peruvian FTA.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"240 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77082994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：