Pub Date : 2023-04-28DOI: 10.1108/econ-07-2022-0101
Himanshu Goel, B. K. Som
PurposeThis study aims to predict the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) by employing macroeconomic variables as input variables identified from the literature for two sub periods, i.e. the pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (June 2011–February 2020) and during the COVID-19 (March 2020–June 2021).Design/methodology/approachSecondary data on macroeconomic variables and Nifty 50 index spanning a period of last ten years starting from 2011 to 2021 have been from various government and regulatory websites. Also, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained with the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm for predicting the National Stock exchange's (NSE) flagship index Nifty 50.FindingsThe findings of the study reveal that Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm achieved 96.99% accuracy in predicting the Indian stock market in the pre-COVID-19 scenario. On the contrary, the proposed ANN model achieved 99.85% accuracy in during the COVID-19 period. The findings of this study have implications for investors, portfolio managers, domestic and foreign institution investors, etc.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study lies in the fact that are hardly any studies that forecasts the Indian stock market using artificial neural networks in the pre and during COVID-19 periods.
{"title":"Stock market prediction, COVID-19 pandemic and neural networks: an SCG algorithm application","authors":"Himanshu Goel, B. K. Som","doi":"10.1108/econ-07-2022-0101","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-07-2022-0101","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study aims to predict the Indian stock market (Nifty 50) by employing macroeconomic variables as input variables identified from the literature for two sub periods, i.e. the pre-coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (June 2011–February 2020) and during the COVID-19 (March 2020–June 2021).Design/methodology/approachSecondary data on macroeconomic variables and Nifty 50 index spanning a period of last ten years starting from 2011 to 2021 have been from various government and regulatory websites. Also, an artificial neural network (ANN) model was trained with the scaled conjugate gradient algorithm for predicting the National Stock exchange's (NSE) flagship index Nifty 50.FindingsThe findings of the study reveal that Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) algorithm achieved 96.99% accuracy in predicting the Indian stock market in the pre-COVID-19 scenario. On the contrary, the proposed ANN model achieved 99.85% accuracy in during the COVID-19 period. The findings of this study have implications for investors, portfolio managers, domestic and foreign institution investors, etc.Originality/valueThe novelty of this study lies in the fact that are hardly any studies that forecasts the Indian stock market using artificial neural networks in the pre and during COVID-19 periods.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"29 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79867305","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-11DOI: 10.1108/econ-10-2022-0139
Keanu Telles
PurposeIn the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium economics through the theoretical deficiencies exposed by the Austrian theory of capital and its consequences on equilibrium analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.FindingsThe integration of capital theory into a business cycle theory by the Austrians and its shortcomings – e.g. criticized by Piero Sraffa and Gunnar Myrdal – called attention to the limitation of the theoretical apparatus of equilibrium analysis in dynamic contexts. This was a central element to Kaldor’s emancipation in 1934 and his subsequent conversion to John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). In addition, it was pivotal to Hayek’s reformulation of equilibrium as a social coordination problem in “Economics and Knowledge” (1937). It also had implications for Kaldor’s mature developments, such as the construction of the post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, the Cambridge capital controversy, and his critique of neoclassical equilibrium economics.Originality/valueThe close encounter between Kaldor and Hayek in the early 1930s, the developments during that decade and its mature consequences are unexplored in the secondary literature. The author attempts to construct a coherent historical narrative that integrates many intertwined elements and personas (e.g. the reception of Knut Wicksell in the English-speaking world; Piero Sraffa’s critique of Hayek; Gunnar Myrdal’s critique of Wicksell, Hayek, and Keynes; the Hayek-Knight-Kaldor debate; the Kaldor-Hayek debate, etc.) that were not connected until now by previous commentators.
{"title":"From Austrian theory of capital to dissent: Nicholas Kaldor, Friedrich A. Hayek and the way to disequilibrium","authors":"Keanu Telles","doi":"10.1108/econ-10-2022-0139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-10-2022-0139","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeIn the early 1930s, Nicholas Kaldor could be classified as an Austrian economist. The author reconstructs the intertwined paths of Kaldor and Friedrich A. Hayek to disequilibrium economics through the theoretical deficiencies exposed by the Austrian theory of capital and its consequences on equilibrium analysis.Design/methodology/approachThe author approaches the discussion using a theoretical and historical reconstruction based on published and unpublished materials.FindingsThe integration of capital theory into a business cycle theory by the Austrians and its shortcomings – e.g. criticized by Piero Sraffa and Gunnar Myrdal – called attention to the limitation of the theoretical apparatus of equilibrium analysis in dynamic contexts. This was a central element to Kaldor’s emancipation in 1934 and his subsequent conversion to John Maynard Keynes’ The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money (1936). In addition, it was pivotal to Hayek’s reformulation of equilibrium as a social coordination problem in “Economics and Knowledge” (1937). It also had implications for Kaldor’s mature developments, such as the construction of the post-Keynesian models of growth and distribution, the Cambridge capital controversy, and his critique of neoclassical equilibrium economics.Originality/valueThe close encounter between Kaldor and Hayek in the early 1930s, the developments during that decade and its mature consequences are unexplored in the secondary literature. The author attempts to construct a coherent historical narrative that integrates many intertwined elements and personas (e.g. the reception of Knut Wicksell in the English-speaking world; Piero Sraffa’s critique of Hayek; Gunnar Myrdal’s critique of Wicksell, Hayek, and Keynes; the Hayek-Knight-Kaldor debate; the Kaldor-Hayek debate, etc.) that were not connected until now by previous commentators.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"171 1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78130625","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-04-04DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0026
Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang
PurposeForecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.FindingsThe final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.Originality/valueThrough the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.
{"title":"Yellow corn wholesale price forecasts via the neural network","authors":"Xiaojie Xu, Yun Zhang","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0026","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0026","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeForecasts of commodity prices are vital issues to market participants and policy makers. Those of corn are of no exception, considering its strategic importance. In the present study, the authors assess the forecast problem for the weekly wholesale price index of yellow corn in China during January 1, 2010–January 10, 2020 period.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ the nonlinear auto-regressive neural network as the forecast tool and evaluate forecast performance of different model settings over algorithms, delays, hidden neurons and data splitting ratios in arriving at the final model.FindingsThe final model is relatively simple and leads to accurate and stable results. Particularly, it generates relative root mean square errors of 1.05%, 1.08% and 1.03% for training, validation and testing, respectively.Originality/valueThrough the analysis, the study shows usefulness of the neural network technique for commodity price forecasts. The results might serve as technical forecasts on a standalone basis or be combined with other fundamental forecasts for perspectives of price trends and corresponding policy analysis.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-04-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88650333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-21DOI: 10.1108/econ-09-2022-0126
Kingstone Nyakurukwa, Yudhvir Seetharam
PurposeUtilising a database that distinctly classifies firm-level ESG (environmental, social and governance) news sentiment as positive or negative, the authors examine the information flow between the two types of ESG news sentiment and stock returns for 20 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2021.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use Shannonian transfer entropy to examine whether information significantly flows from ESG news sentiment to stock returns and a modified event study analysis to establish how stock prices react to changes in the two types of ESG sentiment.FindingsUsing Shannonian transfer entropy, the authors find that for the majority of the companies studied, information flows from the positive ESG news sentiment to stock returns while only a minority of the companies exhibit significant information flow from negative ESG news sentiment to returns. Furthermore, the study’s findings show significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns on the event date and beyond for both upgrades and downgrades in positive ESG news sentiment.Originality/valueThis study is among the first in an African context to investigate the impact of ESG news sentiment on stock market returns at high frequencies.
{"title":"Investor reaction to ESG news sentiment: evidence from South Africa","authors":"Kingstone Nyakurukwa, Yudhvir Seetharam","doi":"10.1108/econ-09-2022-0126","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-09-2022-0126","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeUtilising a database that distinctly classifies firm-level ESG (environmental, social and governance) news sentiment as positive or negative, the authors examine the information flow between the two types of ESG news sentiment and stock returns for 20 companies listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange between 2015 and 2021.Design/methodology/approachThe authors use Shannonian transfer entropy to examine whether information significantly flows from ESG news sentiment to stock returns and a modified event study analysis to establish how stock prices react to changes in the two types of ESG sentiment.FindingsUsing Shannonian transfer entropy, the authors find that for the majority of the companies studied, information flows from the positive ESG news sentiment to stock returns while only a minority of the companies exhibit significant information flow from negative ESG news sentiment to returns. Furthermore, the study’s findings show significantly positive (negative) abnormal returns on the event date and beyond for both upgrades and downgrades in positive ESG news sentiment.Originality/valueThis study is among the first in an African context to investigate the impact of ESG news sentiment on stock market returns at high frequencies.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"52 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79235796","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-09DOI: 10.1108/econ-11-2022-0161
Raquel Mesquita Almeida
PurposeThis paper aims to argue that Economics is not a neutral science.Design/methodology/approachPost-structuralist perspective of Lyotard (1984), alongside the Pragmatics of Searle (1979) and Travis (1981) are useful for analyzing enunciations in mainstream Economics.FindingsEconomists use illocutionary acts expressed in formal language to achieve perlocutionary effects. Because of the importance attached to objectivity in mainstream Economics, the use of artificial languages is preferred to natural language. However, formal language is preferred regarding its perlocutionary effects on economists' community.Originality/valueThis paper puts together the Continental and the Analytical Philosophy and show, in an original manner, how their intersections and how they can be useful to better understand the epistemology of Economics.
{"title":"Economics as a rhetorical language game","authors":"Raquel Mesquita Almeida","doi":"10.1108/econ-11-2022-0161","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-11-2022-0161","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis paper aims to argue that Economics is not a neutral science.Design/methodology/approachPost-structuralist perspective of Lyotard (1984), alongside the Pragmatics of Searle (1979) and Travis (1981) are useful for analyzing enunciations in mainstream Economics.FindingsEconomists use illocutionary acts expressed in formal language to achieve perlocutionary effects. Because of the importance attached to objectivity in mainstream Economics, the use of artificial languages is preferred to natural language. However, formal language is preferred regarding its perlocutionary effects on economists' community.Originality/valueThis paper puts together the Continental and the Analytical Philosophy and show, in an original manner, how their intersections and how they can be useful to better understand the epistemology of Economics.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"90 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-03-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91466991","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.18800/economia.202202.001
Evelin Lasarga, Martín Leiter
The present paper aims to provide evidence about the POUM hypothesis (prospects of upward mobility) in Latin America. It postulates that preferences for redistribution decrease with the prospects of upward mobility of individuals, given that in a possible economic improvement they would be harmed by redistribution. The case of Latin America is analyzed for the period 2009-2018, which has registered changes in inequality and intragenerational mobility in part, due to redistributive policies in the past decade. For this, data from Latinobarómetro and the Probit-Adapted OLS methodology are used. The results support the POUM hypothesis, unlike what the studies carried out for previous periods obtain, in another context of inequality and mobility in Latin America. In addition, suggestive results are obtained about the influence of intergenerational mobility, religiosity, ideology and institutional quality on preferences for redistribution. It should be noted that these results vary according to the country.
{"title":"Mobility prospects and preferences for redistribution in Latin America","authors":"Evelin Lasarga, Martín Leiter","doi":"10.18800/economia.202202.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202202.001","url":null,"abstract":"The present paper aims to provide evidence about the POUM hypothesis (prospects of upward mobility) in Latin America. It postulates that preferences for redistribution decrease with the prospects of upward mobility of individuals, given that in a possible economic improvement they would be harmed by redistribution. The case of Latin America is analyzed for the period 2009-2018, which has registered changes in inequality and intragenerational mobility in part, due to redistributive policies in the past decade. For this, data from Latinobarómetro and the Probit-Adapted OLS methodology are used. The results support the POUM hypothesis, unlike what the studies carried out for previous periods obtain, in another context of inequality and mobility in Latin America. In addition, suggestive results are obtained about the influence of intergenerational mobility, religiosity, ideology and institutional quality on preferences for redistribution. It should be noted that these results vary according to the country.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"47 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77644189","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-30DOI: 10.18800/economia.202202.005
Pedro Francke, Diego Quispe-Ortogorin
We analyze the effect of women's empowerment on their demand for reproductive and sexual health services. In particular, we explore their use of modern contraceptive methods, if the women have had an HIV screening and if they have made a health consultation after experiencing symptoms of sexually transmitted infections. We calculate four women empowerment indexes, proxies to the economic dimension of empowerment, the freedom of movement to visit family or friends, the respect of their couple to their opinions, wishes and rights, and the ability of women to decide about their health. We found that freedom of movement for women at a medium level increases the probability of using modern contraceptive methods as well as screening for HIV/AIDS and that the couple's respect for the views and rights of women positively influences the use of modern contraceptive methods. However, women´s autonomy to make decisions regarding their health is the empowerment indicator with the most robust results on the use of sexual and reproductive health services, increasing the probability of using modern contraceptive methods and consulting for STI symptoms.
{"title":"Women Empowerment and Demand for Sexual and Reproductive Health Services","authors":"Pedro Francke, Diego Quispe-Ortogorin","doi":"10.18800/economia.202202.005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202202.005","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze the effect of women's empowerment on their demand for reproductive and sexual health services. In particular, we explore their use of modern contraceptive methods, if the women have had an HIV screening and if they have made a health consultation after experiencing symptoms of sexually transmitted infections. We calculate four women empowerment indexes, proxies to the economic dimension of empowerment, the freedom of movement to visit family or friends, the respect of their couple to their opinions, wishes and rights, and the ability of women to decide about their health. We found that freedom of movement for women at a medium level increases the probability of using modern contraceptive methods as well as screening for HIV/AIDS and that the couple's respect for the views and rights of women positively influences the use of modern contraceptive methods. However, women´s autonomy to make decisions regarding their health is the empowerment indicator with the most robust results on the use of sexual and reproductive health services, increasing the probability of using modern contraceptive methods and consulting for STI symptoms.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78340231","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-12-16DOI: 10.1108/econ-06-2022-0072
Banna Banik, C. Roy, R. Hossain
PurposeThis study aims to investigate the consequence of the quality of governance (QoG) in moderating the effect of healthcare spending on human development.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a two-step Windmeijer finite sample-corrected system-generalized method of moments (sys-GMM) estimation technique on a panel dataset of 161 countries from 2005 to 2019. The authors use healthcare expenditure as the main explanatory variable and the Human Development Index (HDI) as the dependent variable and also consider voice and accountability (VnA), political stability and absence of terrorism (PSnAT), governance effectiveness (GoE), regulatory quality (ReQ), rules of law (RLaw) and control of corruption (CoC) dimensions of governance indicators as proxies of good governance. The authors develop a new measure of good governance from these six dimensions of governance using principal component analysis (PCA).FindingsThe authors empirically revealed that allocating more healthcare support alone is insufficient to improve human development. Individually, PSnAT has the highest net positive effect on health expenditure that helps to increase human welfare. Further, the corresponding interaction effect between expenditure and the Good Governance Index (GGI) is negative but insignificant for low-income countries (LICs); negative and statistically significant for sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies and positive but insignificant for South Asian nations.Originality/valueThis study is an in-depth analysis of how governance impacts the effectiveness of healthcare expenditure to ensure higher human development, particularly in a large panel of 161 countries. The authors have developed a new index of good governance and later extended the analysis by separating countries based on the income level and geographical location, which are utterly absent in existing literature.
{"title":"Healthcare expenditure, good governance and human development","authors":"Banna Banik, C. Roy, R. Hossain","doi":"10.1108/econ-06-2022-0072","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-06-2022-0072","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study aims to investigate the consequence of the quality of governance (QoG) in moderating the effect of healthcare spending on human development.Design/methodology/approachThe authors employ a two-step Windmeijer finite sample-corrected system-generalized method of moments (sys-GMM) estimation technique on a panel dataset of 161 countries from 2005 to 2019. The authors use healthcare expenditure as the main explanatory variable and the Human Development Index (HDI) as the dependent variable and also consider voice and accountability (VnA), political stability and absence of terrorism (PSnAT), governance effectiveness (GoE), regulatory quality (ReQ), rules of law (RLaw) and control of corruption (CoC) dimensions of governance indicators as proxies of good governance. The authors develop a new measure of good governance from these six dimensions of governance using principal component analysis (PCA).FindingsThe authors empirically revealed that allocating more healthcare support alone is insufficient to improve human development. Individually, PSnAT has the highest net positive effect on health expenditure that helps to increase human welfare. Further, the corresponding interaction effect between expenditure and the Good Governance Index (GGI) is negative but insignificant for low-income countries (LICs); negative and statistically significant for sub-Saharan African (SSA) economies and positive but insignificant for South Asian nations.Originality/valueThis study is an in-depth analysis of how governance impacts the effectiveness of healthcare expenditure to ensure higher human development, particularly in a large panel of 161 countries. The authors have developed a new index of good governance and later extended the analysis by separating countries based on the income level and geographical location, which are utterly absent in existing literature.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"45 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-12-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76025809","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-08DOI: 10.1108/econ-05-2022-0014
V. F. Orellano, Taís Cardoso Tellini
PurposeThis study investigates the impact of political alignment on intergovernmental transfers to the Brazilian unified health system (SUS). The authors analyzed both automatic transfers based on pre-established rules and discretionary transfers, using two criteria of political alignment between mayors and the central government.Design/methodology/approachFor the empirical analysis the authors used regression-discontinuity design (RDD) and the outcomes of close elections between 2001 and 2017.FindingsThe results indicate positive and statistically significant effects of party alignment on the two transfer categories, especially discretionary transfers, but also on transfers based on pre-established rules. The effect of direct party alignment, when mayors and the president are from the same party, is greater than that resulting from coalitions established in municipal and federal elections.Research limitations/implicationsThe positive effect of party alignment was found both in discretionary transfers (those that do not have previously established rules) and some non-discretionary transfers (although they have previously defined regulations). A part of these regulations depends on production capacity and on taking part in programs promoted by the central government, which may produce entropy in the financing system, and a margin to benefit political allies. In the case of the SUS system, it is possible that this entropy is greater in the basic health care category than in the moderate and high complexity one, allowing a higher margin for discretion in transfers allocated to the former. Stricter rules associated to basic health care transfers would be desirable.Practical implicationsIn Brazil, stricter rules and monitoring associated to basic healthcare intergovernmental transfers would be desirable.Social implicationsThe results may inspire some improvement in the mechanisms that govern the distribution of resources to basic healthcare in Brazil, improving social welfare by improving social justice in the distribution of resources to basic healthcare.Originality/valueThe authors does not know any other study about the impact of party alignment on the distribution of intergovernmental transfers to the Brazilian unified health system.
{"title":"Intergovernmental transfers to the Brazilian unified health system and party alignment","authors":"V. F. Orellano, Taís Cardoso Tellini","doi":"10.1108/econ-05-2022-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1108/econ-05-2022-0014","url":null,"abstract":"PurposeThis study investigates the impact of political alignment on intergovernmental transfers to the Brazilian unified health system (SUS). The authors analyzed both automatic transfers based on pre-established rules and discretionary transfers, using two criteria of political alignment between mayors and the central government.Design/methodology/approachFor the empirical analysis the authors used regression-discontinuity design (RDD) and the outcomes of close elections between 2001 and 2017.FindingsThe results indicate positive and statistically significant effects of party alignment on the two transfer categories, especially discretionary transfers, but also on transfers based on pre-established rules. The effect of direct party alignment, when mayors and the president are from the same party, is greater than that resulting from coalitions established in municipal and federal elections.Research limitations/implicationsThe positive effect of party alignment was found both in discretionary transfers (those that do not have previously established rules) and some non-discretionary transfers (although they have previously defined regulations). A part of these regulations depends on production capacity and on taking part in programs promoted by the central government, which may produce entropy in the financing system, and a margin to benefit political allies. In the case of the SUS system, it is possible that this entropy is greater in the basic health care category than in the moderate and high complexity one, allowing a higher margin for discretion in transfers allocated to the former. Stricter rules associated to basic health care transfers would be desirable.Practical implicationsIn Brazil, stricter rules and monitoring associated to basic healthcare intergovernmental transfers would be desirable.Social implicationsThe results may inspire some improvement in the mechanisms that govern the distribution of resources to basic healthcare in Brazil, improving social welfare by improving social justice in the distribution of resources to basic healthcare.Originality/valueThe authors does not know any other study about the impact of party alignment on the distribution of intergovernmental transfers to the Brazilian unified health system.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"55 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84834947","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-08-01DOI: 10.18800/economia.202201.001
K. West, T. Cao
Using 100+ years of data from 18 developed countries, we use a frequency domain technique to compute “long-run” correlations between inflation on the one hand and money growth and nominal interest rates on the other. The estimated long-run correlations are almost always positive. Their magnitude is relatively substantial for money growth, more modest for interest rates. We conclude that some traditional propositions about monetary neutrality are broadly consistent with the data.
{"title":"Some Long-Run Correlations of Inflation in Developed Countries","authors":"K. West, T. Cao","doi":"10.18800/economia.202201.001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.18800/economia.202201.001","url":null,"abstract":"Using 100+ years of data from 18 developed countries, we use a frequency domain technique to compute “long-run” correlations between inflation on the one hand and money growth and nominal interest rates on the other. The estimated long-run correlations are almost always positive. Their magnitude is relatively substantial for money growth, more modest for interest rates. We conclude that some traditional propositions about monetary neutrality are broadly consistent with the data.","PeriodicalId":84551,"journal":{"name":"De economia","volume":"157 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79521317","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：