Journal of the Australian Population Association最新文献

"Educational development has played a role in rapid economic development in East and Southeast Asia.... Australia faces problems in common with countries of the region, including the need to provide greater equality of educational opportunity to students from disadvantaged backgrounds, and to find the appropriate disciplinary mix in tertiary education. The massive growth of the numbers with secondary and higher education in the region will provide opportunities to market our education, pose issues for Australian immigration policy, and provide both risks and opportunities in building a favourable image of Australia."

"This paper asks the question: How does the multistate population model need to be adjusted to provide forecasts of geographical populations? Following an exposition of the standard model, possible solutions to the problems posed by excessive number of parameters are discussed. Decomposition, aggregation and parameterization are described, drawing on some new results. Issues in the temporal forecasting of model components are outlined and the alternative approach of using a spatial interaction model is considered. The paper concludes by arguing that the design of forecasting models is a powerful learning device for both designers and users."

"In this study we decompose the gender based survival difference [in Australia] in 1970, 1980 and 1990 into components that can be attributed to different causes of death. Our analysis indicates that a significant component of the constriction in the differential was due to males having made larger gains than females over time with respect to heart disease, accidents and violence excluding suicide, and lung cancer.... We discuss [the] findings in the context of emerging epidemiological trends in the industrialized world, and the implications these have for the future of the sex differential in survival."

"Up to the 1980s, studies of Chinese population history were largely confined to the examination of aggregate population figures collected at national or provincial levels. Since then, however, investigations into Chinese demographic history have entered a new stage.... This paper...provides new information on past mortality, fertility and marriage patterns. In the light of these findings, a number of widely held beliefs about the traditional Chinese demographic system are critically examined."

"The Monthly Returns to the War Office in London are used to calculate death and sickness rates for British troops in Australia and New Zealand. In the first half of the century death rates peak in 1835-39 before declining, and are generally lower than for troops stationed in Britain. The sickness rates show no clear trend, apparently because of the impact of epidemics and war."

"Increased public policy focus on indigenous Australians over the past 30 years has resulted in a substantial expansion of demographic analysis over the same period. This paper reviews these efforts and summarizes the main topics, findings and debates. The accumulated evidence points to both demographic change and continuity. Change: in that mortality has declined; fertility levels have been much reduced; urbanization has burgeoned and population growth has entered a phase of rapid increase. Continuity: because mortality is still much higher than the Australian average; fertility remains at a level well above that reported for all women; most individuals still live away from major cities; and the estimation of overall numbers still hinges on a social construction of identity."