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Impact of Institutional Factors on the Long-run Behaviour of Money Velocity in India 制度因素对印度货币流通速度长期行为的影响
Nandini Sud
The objective of the study is to examine the impact of institutional changes in the financial sector on the long-run behaviour of broad money velocity in India. For this purpose, annual time series data from 1970–1971 to 2019–2020 has been used. To avoid the problem of multicollinearity, three institutional factors (urbanisation ratio, ratio of total deposits to currency and DCPS) have been combined to form an institutional factor index using PCA. The unit root results indicate that variables are a mix of I(0) & I(1), therefore, ARDL-ECM methodology is applied. Results indicate that money velocity exhibits a structural break in 2008, conforming to the global economic crises. To examine the impact of institutional factors a benchmark model (BM) containing per capita GDP and rate of interest has been estimated along with an institutional factors model (IFM) which also contains institutional factors index. The results show that there is no co-integration in BM, whereas co-integration was established in IFM. The error-correction term and institutional factors index were highly significant for IFM, confirming the long-run relationship. The explanatory power (adjusted R2) for IFM was considerably higher than BM, indicating that the addition of institutional variables significantly improves the money velocity model for India. JEL Codes: C32, E41, E52
本研究的目的是考察金融部门的制度变化对印度广义货币流通速度的长期行为的影响。为此,使用了1970-1971年至2019-2020年的年度时间序列数据。为避免多重共线性问题,本文利用主成分分析法将三个制度因素(城镇化率、存款与货币的比率和居民存款准备金率)结合起来形成制度因素指数。单位根结果表明变量是I(0)和I(1)的混合,因此采用ARDL-ECM方法。结果表明,2008年货币流通速度出现结构性断裂,与全球经济危机相适应。为了检验制度因素的影响,我们估计了包含人均GDP和利率的基准模型(BM)以及包含制度因素指数的制度因素模型(IFM)。结果表明,BM中不存在协整,而IFM中存在协整。误差修正期和制度因素指数对IFM具有显著性,证实了两者之间的长期关系。IFM的解释能力(调整后的R2)显著高于BM,表明制度变量的加入显著改善了印度的货币速度模型。JEL代码:C32, E41, E52
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引用次数: 0
Does Health-related Aid Really Matter? Evidence from South Asia 与健康相关的援助真的重要吗?南亚的证据
Salma Ahmed, D. Chakrabarty, Kishor Sharma
Using data from South Asia for the period 1990–2017, this paper examines the effectiveness of the health sector aid on infant mortality, neonatal mortality, child mortality and a new composite index of child mortality. The investigation of South Asia is interesting not only because it accounts for roughly one quarter of the world population and has attracted significant aid over the years but also because of the significant variations in health outcomes between countries in the region. Applying the instrumental variables method to account for the endogeneity of aid, we find that health-focused aid assists in improving child health outcomes in South Asian countries. The effect operates mainly through female literacy and is robust to a variety of specifications. Our findings have significant policy implications for achieving the post-MDG target and point to the importance of the health sector aid to improve child health for countries swamped with poorer health status. JEL Codes: F35, I15, O53
本文利用南亚1990-2017年期间的数据,研究了卫生部门援助对婴儿死亡率、新生儿死亡率、儿童死亡率和一个新的儿童死亡率综合指数的有效性。对南亚的调查之所以有趣,不仅因为它约占世界人口的四分之一,多年来吸引了大量援助,还因为该地区各国的健康状况存在显著差异。应用工具变量法解释援助的内生性,我们发现以健康为重点的援助有助于改善南亚国家的儿童健康状况。这种效果主要通过女性识字来发挥作用,并在各种规格下都很强大。我们的研究结果对实现千年发展目标后的目标具有重大的政策意义,并指出卫生部门援助对改善健康状况较差的国家的儿童健康的重要性。JEL代码:F35、I15、O53
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引用次数: 0
Monetary Policy and Stock Market Interaction: International Evidence 货币政策与股市互动:国际证据
Sakshi Saini, S. Sehgal
This article investigates monetary policy and stock market interaction across 41 developed and developing economies using GMM-Panel VAR model. The analysis is undertaken in two sub-periods—before and after the crisis of 2008 to make a comparative assessment of whether the relationship between monetary policy and stock prices altered in the aftermath of the crisis. We verify the existence of different channels of monetary transmission to stock prices. Our results point to the prevalence of discount rate channel of monetary policy in affecting stock prices after the crisis of 2008. Further, our results indicate an important role of excess liquidity in pushing stock prices upward in developed economies in the post-crisis period. In developing economies, term premia channel is the dominant channel of transmission to stock prices. Also, we find evidence of monetary authorities of developed economies responding directly to stock price movements to ensure financial stability in the post-crisis period. Central banks react primarily to inflationary pressures by tightening monetary policy both before and after the crisis in developed and developing economies. JEL Codes: C32, E44, E52, F42
本文使用GMM-Panel VAR模型研究了41个发达和发展中经济体的货币政策和股市互动。该分析分为两个子时期进行——2008年危机前后,以比较评估货币政策和股价之间的关系在危机后是否发生了变化。我们验证了货币对股票价格传导的不同渠道的存在。我们的研究结果表明,2008年金融危机后,货币政策的贴现率渠道对股价的影响十分普遍。此外,我们的研究结果表明,在后危机时期,流动性过剩在推动发达经济体股价上涨方面发挥着重要作用。在发展中经济体,定期溢价渠道是股价传导的主要渠道。此外,我们发现有证据表明,发达经济体的货币当局直接对股价波动作出反应,以确保后危机时期的金融稳定。发达经济体和发展中经济体的央行主要通过在危机前后收紧货币政策来应对通胀压力。JEL代码:C32、E44、E52、F42
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引用次数: 0
Employment and Income Shock During COVID-19 Lockdown in a Metropolitan city in India 新冠肺炎封锁期间印度一大都市的就业和收入冲击
Pritha Dev, J. Unni, A. Vijayalakshmi
The COVID-19 crisis had a harsher impact on women globally, as they were disproportionately represented in sectors offering low wages, few benefits and least secure jobs. We examined the economic impact of loss of employment and incomes on workers in relatively low income households during and after the first stringent lockdown—April to June 2020—in Ahmedabad, Gujarat. We analyse employment impact using a logistic regression and impact on incomes using a Fixed Effect OLS regression. We find that the impact on women workers was greater in terms of loss of employment and income. Women had clearly not resumed work at the same rate as men after lockdown was eased. We address the specific question, ‘why were women less likely to resume work after the shock of lockdown?’ We found that care responsibilities did not explain later resumption of work, but the place of work did. In addition we address the question ‘which segments of workers suffered greater income loss?’ We analyse these questions for wage and self-employed workers and by prominent occupations in the sample. We find that while wage-employed workers resumed work later, they suffered less income loss than the self-employed. We attempt to explain this paradox. JEL Codes: J4, J46, J39, O17, R23
新冠肺炎危机对全球女性的影响更为严重,因为她们在工资低、福利少、工作最不安全的行业中所占比例过高。我们研究了在古吉拉特邦艾哈迈达巴德第一次严格封锁期间和之后(2020年4月至6月),相对低收入家庭的工人失去就业和收入对经济的影响。我们使用逻辑回归分析就业影响,并使用固定效应OLS回归分析对收入的影响。我们发现,在就业和收入损失方面,对女工的影响更大。封锁解除后,女性显然没有以与男性相同的速度恢复工作。我们解决了一个具体的问题,“为什么女性在封锁冲击后不太可能恢复工作?”我们发现,护理责任并不能解释后来的复工,但工作地点可以解释。此外,我们还讨论了“哪些部门的工人收入损失更大?”我们分析了工资和个体经营者以及样本中突出职业的这些问题。我们发现,虽然工资雇佣工人恢复工作的时间较晚,但他们遭受的收入损失比自营职业者少。我们试图解释这个悖论。JEL代码:J4、J46、J39、O17、R23
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引用次数: 0
Surplus Transfers from British Colonial Malaya 英属殖民地马来亚的盈余转移
Martin Khor Kok Peng, J. K. S.
Martin Khor’s 1983 book on Malaysian economic dependence provided the first comprehensive estimates of the ‘colonial surplus’ from British Malaya. Khor described how Great Britain secured this from the colonial Malayan economy and estimated various types of surplus extracted via different means. Unsurprisingly, super-profits for privileged foreign capital owners are well known. The terms of trade have been important determinants of the colonial trade surplus. Financial surpluses are distinguished by those secured through the colonial currency board system, foreign commercial banks and colonial public finances, involving fiscal policy. The wealthy Malayan colony transferred funds to London at very low interest rates, but borrowed from British banks at exorbitant rates, besides paying high transactions charges. Colonial managerial privilege was also significant. Such surplus transfers were enabled by various colonial arrangements. Thus, colonial Malaya lost significant financial resources. Only some have changed in the post-colonial era, sometimes rather slowly. JEL Codes: B27, N15
马丁·霍尔(Martin Khor) 1983年出版的关于马来西亚经济依赖的书首次全面估算了英属马来亚的“殖民盈余”。霍尔描述了英国如何从殖民地马来亚经济中获得这些,并估计了通过不同手段提取的各种盈余。毫不奇怪,享有特权的外国资本所有者的巨额利润是众所周知的。贸易条件一直是殖民地贸易顺差的重要决定因素。财政盈余的区别在于那些通过殖民地货币发行局制度、外国商业银行和殖民地公共财政(涉及财政政策)获得的盈余。富裕的马来亚殖民地以极低的利率将资金转移到伦敦,但除了支付高昂的交易费用外,还以过高的利率从英国银行借款。殖民地的管理特权也很重要。这种盈余转移是由各种殖民安排促成的。因此,殖民地马来亚失去了大量的财政资源。在后殖民时代,只有一些国家发生了变化,有时变化相当缓慢。JEL代码:B27, N15
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting the Kerala ‘Model’ of Development: A Sixty-year Assessment of Successes and Failures 重新审视喀拉拉邦的发展“模式”:六十年的成功与失败评估
K. P. Kannan
This article seeks to revisit the much-acclaimed Kerala ‘Model’ of Development since the formation of the state of Kerala. As such it subjects the development experience of Kerala for a period of six decades from 1960 to 2020. This exercise reveals that the development experience of Kerala is largely shaped by its historical past which privileged social development over purely economic development based on the growth of the goods producing sectors. State response to social and human development demands were more successful than the conventional efforts to enhance capital formation thereby transforming the material basis of the economy. The high human and social development led to large scale migration of persons, mostly men, to the Gulf countries that resulted in a kind of economic growth induced by outside money in the form of remittances. The national economic context was also one that led to a higher growth of the service sector than the material producing sectors. The limited opportunities afforded by the national state or the increased flow of outside money could not be seized effectively by the regional state to transform goods producing sectors such as agriculture and industry. This resulted in such major and spectacular failures as declining tax collection efficiency, increased net loss of state-owned public enterprises and massive waste of resources in implementing capital projects. I end the article with a call for a study of political economy of development by taking into account the specificities of the Kerala context within a larger national and international context. JEL Codes: O15, R11, F24, J6, H21, H41, H75
本文试图重新审视自喀拉拉邦成立以来备受赞誉的喀拉拉邦发展“模式”。因此,它将喀拉拉邦从1960年到2020年的60年发展经验作为主题。这项工作表明,喀拉拉邦的发展经验在很大程度上是由其历史历史所塑造的,它赋予社会发展特权,而不是基于商品生产部门增长的纯粹经济发展。国家对社会和人类发展需求的反应比促进资本形成从而改变经济物质基础的传统努力更为成功。人类和社会的高度发展导致大量人口,主要是男子向海湾国家迁移,从而导致以汇款形式的外来资金引起的一种经济增长。国民经济环境也导致服务部门的增长高于物质生产部门的增长。地方政府无法有效地抓住国家提供的有限机会或外部资金流的增加,来改造农业和工业等商品生产部门。这导致了税收征收效率下降、国有公共企业净亏损增加、资本项目实施资源大量浪费等重大失误。在文章的最后,我呼吁在更大的国家和国际背景下,考虑到喀拉拉邦背景的特殊性,对发展的政治经济学进行研究。JEL代码:O15、R11、F24、J6、H21、H41、H75
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引用次数: 0
The Peasant Question Under Nyerere’s Socialism 尼雷尔社会主义下的农民问题
I. Shivji
This essay is a succinct overview of the manner in which the first president of Tanzania attempted to address the peasant question in the country. In the immediate aftermath of independence (1961–1966), Nyerere’s government bought into the World Bank’s recommendation of village settlement schemes and range development to pull the peasantry and the pastoralist out of the backward, traditional agriculture to modern, more productive agriculture and pastoralism spearheaded by what the WB called progressive farmers. Selected ‘progressive farmers’ would be resettled in new environment administered by hired management which would teach them modern husbandry under close supervision. Village settlement scheme was established at a great cost. By 1966 it was clear that both these projects were disastrous. With the adoption of the country’s socialist blueprint, the government adopted the policy of ‘small is beautiful’, so to speak. Peasant agriculture would be improved through extension services and collective production in Ujamaa villages. Peasants were not particularly enthusiastic about Ujamaa villages. Very few were established making the party diehards, including Nyerere, exasperated. In 1973 the President ordered that living in villages was compulsory and thus began the forced villagisation from 1971–1974 by which time it was estimated that some five million people were forcefully resettled in the so-called development villages. In hindsight, it can be surmised that this move both discredited the Ujamaa project and Nyerere could have lost his peasant base. Beginning late 1970s and early 1980s the country experienced its worst economic crisis due to a variety of internal and external reasons providing imperialism and internal proto-bourgeoisies an entry point for imposing the notorious structural adjustment programmes. The essay briefly discusses the fate and the fight of the peasant under the subsequent neo-liberal phase predicated on the so-called free market, private property regime and private investment exposing the peasant to the vagaries of capitalism and its crisis. The essay ends with outlining some elements of an alternative discourse to spearhead the peasant struggle for autonomous, sovereign development. JEL Codes: P32, Q15, Q24
这篇文章是对坦桑尼亚第一任总统试图解决该国农民问题的方式的简要概述。在独立后不久(1961-1966年),尼雷尔政府采纳了世界银行关于村庄定居计划和牧场发展的建议,将农民和牧民从落后的传统农业中拉出来,转向由世界银行所谓的进步农民引领的现代、更多产的农业和畜牧业。被选中的“进步农民”将被安置在新的环境中,由雇佣的管理人员管理,他们将在严密的监督下学习现代农业。村落定居计划的建立付出了巨大的代价。到1966年,这两个项目显然都是灾难性的。随着国家社会主义蓝图的采纳,政府采取了“小即是美”的政策。农民农业将通过推广服务和乌贾马村的集体生产得到改善。农民们对乌贾马村并没有特别的热情。这让包括尼雷尔在内的党内顽固派十分恼火。1973年,总统下令强制村民居住,从而从1971年至1974年开始强迫村民居住,到那时估计约有500万人被迫重新安置在所谓的发展村庄。事后看来,我们可以推测,此举既有损乌贾马项目的信誉,也可能使尼雷尔失去他的农民基础。从1970年代末和1980年代初开始,由于各种内部和外部原因,该国经历了最严重的经济危机,为帝国主义和内部原始资产阶级提供了实施臭名昭著的结构调整方案的切入点。本文简要讨论了农民在随后的新自由主义阶段的命运和斗争,这一阶段以所谓的自由市场、私有财产制度和私人投资为基础,使农民暴露在资本主义及其危机的变幻莫测之中。文章最后概述了另一种话语的一些要素,以引领农民争取自主、主权发展的斗争。JEL代码:P32, Q15, Q24
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引用次数: 0
On Capitalism and Imperialism: A Note Based on Prabhat Patnaik’s Contributions to Economic Theory 论资本主义与帝国主义:基于帕特奈克的经济理论贡献的评注
C. Chandrasekhar, J. Ghosh
From his days as a doctoral student, Prabhat Patnaik was convinced that given the structure and spontaneous logic of capitalism, its expansion and relative ‘stability’ could not be understood without incorporating the role of primitive accumulation and imperialism in its development. That quest made clear that without transcending capitalism and the spontaneity that came from its essential structure, it was impossible to ensure a just, egalitarian and sustainable social order. This article draws on a small corpus of his enormous work to highlight a few insights that emerged from his wide-ranging engagement with that critique and search for an alternative. JEL Codes: B14, B24, B51, E11, N10, N20
从他还是博士生的时候起,Prabhat Patnaik就确信,考虑到资本主义的结构和自发逻辑,如果不将原始积累和帝国主义的作用纳入其发展中,就无法理解资本主义的扩张和相对“稳定”。这一探索清楚地表明,如果不超越资本主义及其基本结构所产生的自发性,就不可能确保公正、平等和可持续的社会秩序。本文选取了他大量著作中的一小部分,以突出他在广泛参与批评和寻找替代方案中产生的一些见解。JEL代码:B14, B24, B51, E11, N10, N20
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引用次数: 0
Why Inter-caste Inequality in Educational Attainment Still Persists? Wealth and Caste Discrimination Matters 为什么不同种姓在教育程度上的不平等仍然存在?财富和种姓歧视问题
S. Thorat, Khalida Khan
Using recent data for 2017/2018 the article provides empirical evidence on the persistence of the traditional inter-caste inequality in higher educational attainment—enrolment rate being much low for low castes than the high castes. The educational attainment of middle caste is lower than high castes but better than low caste untouchables, indicating a graded inequality in education attainment, unique feature of caste system. Between the income group the low income groups suffered the most from low education attainment than the high oncome groups. The inequalities in ownership of wealth and income and caste discrimination faced by low caste untouchables are the main reasons for low education attainment among the low caste and low income groups. The shift in the government policy towards privatisation of higher education also has taken the education beyond the reach of low income household. The caste discrimination result into high drop out among the scheduled castes. In the end based on the empirical results relevant (caste) group specific and income group specific policies are proposed to promote higher education among the low castes and low income groups. JEL Codes: 123, J24, D63, J71
文章利用2017/2018年的最新数据,提供了高等教育中传统种姓间不平等持续存在的经验证据——低种姓的入学率远低于高种姓。中等种姓的受教育程度低于高种姓,但高于低种姓的贱民,表明了教育程度的等级不平等,这是种姓制度的独特特征。在收入群体中,低收入群体比高收入群体受教育程度低的影响最大。低种姓贱民所面临的财富和收入所有权的不平等以及种姓歧视是低种姓和低收入群体受教育程度低的主要原因。政府对高等教育私有化政策的转变也使低收入家庭无法接受教育。种姓歧视导致排定种姓中的高辍学率。最后,根据实证结果,提出了促进低种姓和低收入群体高等教育的相关(种姓)群体和收入群体政策。JEL代码:123,J24, D63, J71
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引用次数: 0
Celebrating the Patnaiks: Critical Reflections on the Past and the Present 赞颂帕特奈克:对过去和现在的批判性反思
P. Jha
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Indian economic journal : the quarterly journal of the Indian Economic Association
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