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The Asymmetric Relationship between Corruption, Political Stability and Economic Growth: New Evidence from BRICS Countries 腐败、政治稳定与经济增长的不对称关系——来自金砖国家的新证据
Ashmita Kesar, B. Kamaiah, P. Jena, M. Yadav
There are studies available that study the influence of corruption on economic growth, but no existing literature studies the asymmetric relationship in context to BRICS countries. In this study, we try to fill the gap in the literature by studying the symmetric and asymmetric association between corruption, political stability and economic growth in BRICS economies where gross fixed capital formation and final consumption expenditure are considered additional variables. Further, we employ panel non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model from 1996–2018. In the long run, the non-linear estimation results confirm an asymmetric relationship while all variables show the asymmetric relationship in the short run. Additionally, the study has employed Dumitrescu–Hurlin (2012) test to find the direction of causality among the variables. The test confirms the causality in particular variables taking economic growth as dependent variable and the decomposed explanatory variables. The article’s findings provide new insight into the relationship between corruption, political stability and economic growth. JEL Codes: D73, F35
现有研究研究腐败对经济增长的影响,但没有现有文献研究金砖国家背景下的不对称关系。在这项研究中,我们试图通过研究金砖国家经济体的腐败、政治稳定和经济增长之间的对称和非对称关联来填补文献中的空白,其中固定资本形成总额和最终消费支出被视为额外变量。此外,我们采用了1996-2018年的面板非线性自回归分布滞后模型。从长期来看,非线性估计结果证实了非对称关系,而所有变量在短期内都显示出非对称关系。此外,该研究采用了Dumitrescu–Hurlin(2012)检验来寻找变量之间的因果关系方向。检验以经济增长为因变量和分解的解释变量,证实了特定变量的因果关系。这篇文章的发现为腐败、政治稳定和经济增长之间的关系提供了新的见解。JEL代码:D73、F35
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引用次数: 3
Technology Intensive Exports and Growth of Asian Economies 技术密集型出口与亚洲经济增长
A. Siddiqui
The emphasis on enhancing and specialising in technology exports and altering policy environment in Asian economies has been dominant since 2000. The present study is an attempt to empirically investigate the effect of technology exports on enhancing growth of Asian economies during the period 2001 to 2018. To assess the linkages between growth, investments, labour productivity and technology exports, panel least squares with cross section weights is applied for the economies. To assess the relationship between the variables for each individual country ARDL technique is applied. The results indicate long run relationship between low, medium low and medium high technology exports and growth as well as domestic investment and growth. For individual nations, the results indicate varying intensity of technology exports have a different relationship with growth. The results also suggest the need for Government of each nation to enhance its effort on the development of policies which focus on attracting investments and further promoting exports of technology intensive sectors. JEL Codes: F14, F60, O19
自2000年以来,亚洲经济体一直强调加强和专门化技术出口和改变政策环境。本研究试图实证研究2001-2008年期间技术出口对促进亚洲经济增长的影响。为了评估增长、投资、劳动生产率和技术出口之间的联系,对各经济体采用了带有截面权重的面板最小二乘法。为了评估每个国家的变量之间的关系,应用了ARDL技术。研究结果表明,低、中低、中高技术出口与经济增长以及国内投资与经济增长之间存在长期关系。对于个别国家来说,研究结果表明,不同强度的技术出口与增长的关系不同。研究结果还表明,每个国家的政府都需要加强努力,制定侧重于吸引投资和进一步促进技术密集型部门出口的政策。JEL代码:F14、F60、O19
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引用次数: 2
Comovement of Fear Index, Stock Returns, Brent Oil Prices in BRIC Countries: The Case of COVID-19 金砖四国恐惧指数、股票收益、布伦特原油价格的复苏——以新冠肺炎为例
Sakshi Sharma, Kunjana Malik
The study investigates long-run and short-run cointegrating relationship between stock market returns, fear index (VIX), brent crude oil prices and growth in deaths due to the COVID-19 pandemic for BRIC countries using daily data from 23 January 2020 to 24 August 2020 using Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. CUSUM test and serial correlation test estimates point towards the robustness of the model used. The evidence reveals that for India and Brazil, with the outbreak of COVID-19, decrease in crude oil prices and increase in volatility index, the stock returns started declining in the short run, but the impact has declined and the stock returns have regained in the long run. For China, due to the outbreak of COVID-19 and increase in fear index, stock returns declined in the short run, but the Chinese economy has recovered well due to a strong industrial and services sector. For Russia, increase in deaths due to COVID and decline in oil prices has impacted the stock returns in the long- and short run. Due to a decline of 53% for crude oil prices from January 2020 to May 2020, the Russian economy would face the consequences in the long run as well. The results suggest that though BRIC countries were impacted by growth in COVID-19 deaths, but the recovery trajectory and stability has resumed for all countries except Russia. Results of Granger Causality indicate a bidirectional causality between VIX and stock returns for the Indian market.
该研究使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型,利用2020年1月23日至2020年8月24日的每日数据,调查了金砖四国股票市场回报、恐惧指数(VIX)、布伦特原油价格和COVID-19大流行导致的死亡人数增长之间的长期和短期协整关系。CUSUM检验和序列相关检验估计指向所使用模型的稳健性。证据表明,在印度和巴西,随着新冠疫情爆发,原油价格下跌,波动率指数上升,股票收益在短期内开始下降,但长期影响减弱,股票收益有所回升。就中国而言,受新冠肺炎疫情和恐慌指数上升影响,短期内股票收益有所下降,但由于工业和服务业强劲,中国经济复苏良好。对俄罗斯来说,COVID造成的死亡人数增加和油价下跌在长期和短期内都影响了股票回报。从2020年1月到2020年5月,原油价格下跌了53%,俄罗斯经济也将面临长期的后果。结果表明,尽管金砖四国受到新冠肺炎死亡人数增长的影响,但除俄罗斯外,所有国家都恢复了复苏轨迹和稳定。格兰杰因果关系的结果表明,波动率指数与印度市场股票收益之间存在双向因果关系。
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引用次数: 0
What Factors Drive Start-Up Investments in India’s Subnational Economies? 哪些因素推动印度地方经济的创业投资?
S. Gopalan
India has rapidly evolved into a fast-growing emerging market with one of the largest start-up ecosystems in the world. Despite the rapid strides, the nature of investment distribution of start-ups remain heavily concentrated in specific regions within India, fuelling concerns of regional disparities. In this research note, I empirically explore the determinants of start-up investments in India’s subnational economies, to identify the conditioning variables that possibly drive such investments. JEL Codes: L26, O53, R11, R12
印度已迅速发展成为一个快速增长的新兴市场,拥有世界上最大的初创企业生态系统之一。尽管进展迅速,但初创企业的投资分配性质仍然严重集中在印度的特定地区,这加剧了人们对地区差异的担忧。在本研究报告中,我实证研究了印度国家以下经济体创业投资的决定因素,以确定可能推动此类投资的条件变量。JEL代码:L26、O53、R11、R12
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引用次数: 1
Editorial 社论
S. Bhushan
The present issue examines relationships between growth and number of other variables such as innovation, per capita electricity consumption and air and road transport in India. The importance of innovation in economic development is well recognised in the academic literature. An article by Ajay K. Sarangi et al. on ‘How does innovation affect economic growth? Evidence from G-20 countries’ points out temporal causality between these two variables over the period 1961–2019 in majority of countries. Another article by Ranjan Aneja and Megha Mathpal on ‘Economic growth and electricity consumption in India: An econometric analysis’ notes that there exists a bidirectional causal relationship between the per capita electricity consumption and per capita gross domestic product whereas there exists unidirectional causality from employment pattern in India to per capita gross domestic product over the period 1991–2018. Prabir Kumar Ghosh and Soumyananda Dinda in an article on ‘Revisited the relationship between economic growth and transport infrastructure in India: An empirical study’ note that road and air transports have significant positive contribution to economic growth during the period 1990–2017. Moutushi Chakraborty and Biswajit Maitra in an article on ‘Import demand function in India under the liberalised trade regime’ analyse the import demand function in India during 1980–2018 and for the postreform period, 1992–2018 in terms of income, consumption, investment and export expenditure. The estimated import demand function is found to be stable and robust during the period. An article by Shilpi Tyagi and Varun Mahajan on ‘What determines profitability in the Indian automobile industry?’ finds that lagged profitability, marketing and advertising intensity, firms market power and operational efficiency have positive impact on firm level profitability whereas impact of raw material import intensity and export intensity has negative impact on firm level profitability. In an interesting study by Ishfaq Hamid and Pabitra Kumar Jena the impact of democracy on FDI flows in India is being examined over a period of 1980–2017. There is a positive and significant impact of democracy on the direct investment flows in India. An article by Poovitha Murugasamy and Vandita Mishra notes the importance of the policy of economies energy mix whereby non-renewable resources are combined with the demand for green energy and efficiency. Gourishankar S. Hiremath and Supratik Deb in the article on ‘Export performance of MSMEs in India: Is credit constraint an invisible Gorilla?’ note that access to foreign currency borrowings improved the performance of the micro, small and medium enterprises. Priyabrata Sahoo et al. in an article on ‘Inclusiveness of poverty reduction: A study of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana’ suggest that the poverty reduction scheme should focus on different sections of the people irrespective of rural and urban sectors to make the poverty reduction prog
本期研究印度的增长与诸如创新、人均电力消耗和航空和公路运输等其他变量之间的关系。学术文献充分认识到创新在经济发展中的重要性。Ajay K. Sarangi等人的一篇文章《创新如何影响经济增长?》来自20国集团国家的证据指出,在大多数国家,这两个变量在1961年至2019年期间存在时间因果关系。Ranjan Aneja和Megha Mathpal的另一篇文章《印度的经济增长和用电量:计量经济学分析》指出,1991-2018年期间,人均用电量和人均国内生产总值之间存在双向因果关系,而印度的就业模式与人均国内生产总值之间存在单向因果关系。Prabir Kumar Ghosh和Soumyananda Dinda在一篇题为“重新审视印度经济增长与交通基础设施之间的关系:一项实证研究”的文章中指出,1990年至2017年期间,公路和航空运输对经济增长做出了显著的积极贡献。mouushi Chakraborty和Biswajit Maitra在一篇题为“自由化贸易体制下印度的进口需求函数”的文章中,从收入、消费、投资和出口支出方面分析了1980年至2018年期间印度的进口需求函数以及改革后时期1992年至2018年的进口需求函数。在此期间,估计的进口需求函数是稳定和稳健的。一篇由Shilpi Tyagi和Varun Mahajan撰写的关于“是什么决定了印度汽车行业的盈利能力?”研究发现,滞后盈利能力、营销和广告强度、企业市场支配力和经营效率对企业水平盈利能力有正向影响,而原材料进口强度和出口强度的影响对企业水平盈利能力有负向影响。伊什法克·哈米德(Ishfaq Hamid)和帕比特拉·库马尔·耶纳(Pabitra Kumar Jena)进行了一项有趣的研究,研究了1980年至2017年期间印度民主对外国直接投资流动的影响。民主对印度的直接投资流动产生了积极和重大的影响。Poovitha Murugasamy和Vandita Mishra的一篇文章指出了经济能源组合政策的重要性,即将不可再生资源与绿色能源和效率的需求结合起来。gurishankar S. Hiremath和Supratik Deb在《印度中小微企业的出口表现:信贷约束是一只看不见的大猩猩吗?》请注意,获得外币贷款改善了中小微企业的业绩。Priyabrata Sahoo等人在一篇题为《减贫的包容性:对安得拉邦和特伦甘纳邦的研究》的文章中建议,减贫计划应该关注不同的人群,而不考虑农村和城市部门,以使减贫计划更具包容性。Vaibhav Sinha和Balaga Mohana Rao在一篇关于“印度制造业全球生产网络的实证调查”的文章中,使用1984-2017年的年度数据,分析了形成全球供应链的因素之间的长期和短期关系及其对供应链的影响。Chandan Kumar Boraiaha和Rashmi Chandan发表了一篇关于印度清洁能源矿产未来的评论文章。
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引用次数: 0
Limning India’s Direct Tax Collection Contractions 印度的直接税收税收缩
R. Deb
Indian direct tax collections have remained sluggish over the period coupled with the lesser tax buoyancy have compelled the government to collect revenues from the untapped or under-tapped sources to finance the galloping expenditure such as the health and defence. To achieve the fixed money value targets the taxmen have been putting excessive pressures on the taxpayers who have created a panic, likely to tantamount to infamous tax terrorism and tax disputes have arisen blocking substantial tax revenues in litigations. Taking this in to cognisance the government has attempted to rationalise the tax system by introducing tax amnesty scheme such as the Vivad-se-Viswas and by launching a Faceless Assessment Scheme (FAS) and tax charter, which is likely to address the tax disputes significantly. To increase the revenue, the best approach for the government is to broadening the tax base, reducing the tax rates, rationalising the tax system, formalising the unorganised sectors and by enhancing the lower household incomes substantially in lieu of serving notices to the non-filers is the need of the hour. JEL Codes: E62, H25
在此期间,印度的直接税征收仍然低迷,加上税收弹性较小,迫使政府从未开发或未充分利用的来源征收收入,以资助医疗和国防等快速增长的支出。为了实现固定的货币价值目标,税务机关对纳税人施加了过度的压力,造成了恐慌,这可能相当于臭名昭著的税收恐怖主义,并且出现了税收纠纷,阻碍了诉讼中的大量税收收入。考虑到这一点,政府试图通过引入税收赦免计划(如Vivad-se-Viswas)和启动无面评估计划(FAS)和税收宪章来合理化税收制度,这可能会显著解决税收纠纷。为了增加收入,政府的最佳方法是扩大税基,降低税率,使税收体系合理化,使无组织部门正规化,并通过大幅提高低收入家庭的收入,而不是向未申报者发出通知。JEL代码:E62, H25
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引用次数: 0
Energy Efficiency Versus Consumption: An Empirical Investigation of Jevons’ Paradox Across Sectors in India 能源效率与消费:印度各行业杰文斯悖论的实证研究
Poovitha Murugasamy, Vandita Mishra
Modernisation theorists reiterate endogenous growth models by acknowledging technological production for a rise in the efficiency of energy-use. Yet, world system analysts blame economic production for causing environmental degradation. As economic and demographic modernisation continue to raise the magnitude of extraction despite their declining economic intensity, the dichotomy draws attention to Jevons’ paradox. Debates ingeminating ‘The End of Cheap Oil’ raise arguments about India’s energy deficit despite measures to raise its energy self-sufficiency. Do policies aiming at reducing energy consumption through efficiency enhancement fulfil their targets or does the reality reverse the objectives of the policy? Focusing on the two pillars of energy policy (efficiency-demand and supply), Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and Granger causality have been employed to model the energy efficiency–consumption nexus and other determinants of energy consumption, across sectors. The magnitude of energy intensity effect is stronger in the agricultural sector than the other sectors. This analysis records evidence of Sectoral Rebound effects confirming Jevons’ paradox, whereby the economy’s energy mix which is strongly inclined towards non-renewable resources combined with the demand for green energy and efficiency, clearly supports the government’s recent policy moves in the direction of renewable energy generation and electricity substitution. JEL Codes: O13, Q42, Q43, Q48
现代化理论家通过承认技术生产对能源使用效率的提高重申了内生增长模型。然而,世界体系分析人士指责经济生产造成了环境退化。尽管经济强度不断下降,但随着经济和人口现代化不断提高采掘的规模,这种二分法引起了人们对杰文斯悖论的关注。关于“廉价石油的终结”的争论引发了人们对印度能源短缺的争论,尽管印度采取了提高能源自给率的措施。旨在通过提高效率来减少能源消耗的政策是否实现了目标,还是现实与政策的目标背道而驰?关注能源政策的两大支柱(效率-需求和供应),利用普通最小二乘(OLS)技术和格兰杰因果关系对能源效率-消费关系和跨部门能源消费的其他决定因素进行建模。能源强度效应的强度在农业部门强于其他部门。这一分析记录了行业反弹效应的证据,证实了杰文斯的悖论,即经济的能源结构强烈倾向于不可再生资源,加上对绿色能源和效率的需求,显然支持政府最近朝着可再生能源发电和电力替代方向的政策举措。JEL代码:O13, Q42, Q43, Q48
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引用次数: 0
Declining Women Work Participation in Rural India: Trends, Causes and Policy Implications 印度农村妇女工作参与率下降:趋势、原因和政策含义
R. P. Mamgain, Khalida Khan
One of the major policy concerns in recent years has been decline in the number of women workers in the Indian labour market. The ‘education’ and ‘income’ effect hypotheses for such decline are generally advocated. Such analyses, however, are limited in their focus. This study attempts to fill up this gap by exclusively focusing on rural women. Using the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) data for the years 2004–2005 and 2011–2012 and Periodic Labour Force Survey data for the year 2017–2018, it observes a widespread decline in rural women’s work participation rates (WPRs) across their different social groups, income strata and states in the country albeit at a significantly varying rate. While the major decline in women WPRs in the age-group, 15–24 years has been in favour of education, it has been largely in favour of ‘domestic works’ in the other age-groups. The major decline in women workforce is observed in case of those as not-literates, ‘unpaid family labour’ in agriculture and ‘casual wage labour’ both in farm and non-farm sectors. This is largely due to contraction in self-employment and casual wage works both in farm and non-farm sectors, more so during recent period. This study finds a positive impact of rising household income on women’s WPRs. While education emerges as a significant predictor of women joining workforce, its iteration with their social groups shows differing impact of similar level of education on different caste groups. It offers inputs for policy measures to be aimed at providing decent livelihoods in rural areas in a big scale, with strong focus on reducing caste and gender disparities. JEL Codes: E24, J16, J21, J18
近年来的一个主要政策问题是印度劳动力市场的女工人数下降。人们普遍认为这种下降的“教育”和“收入”效应假说。然而,这种分析的重点有限。这项研究试图通过专门关注农村妇女来填补这一空白。利用国家抽样调查组织(NSSO)2004–2005年和2011–2012年的数据以及2017–2018年的定期劳动力调查数据,它观察到农村妇女在全国不同社会群体、收入阶层和州的工作参与率普遍下降,尽管下降率差异很大。虽然15-24岁年龄组的女性WPR大幅下降,这有利于教育,但在其他年龄组,这在很大程度上有利于“家务劳动”。在非文盲、农业中的“无报酬家庭劳动”和农业和非农业部门的“临时工资劳动”的情况下,可以观察到女性劳动力的大幅下降。这在很大程度上是由于农业和非农业部门的自营职业和临时工资工作的收缩,最近一段时间更是如此。这项研究发现,家庭收入的增加对妇女的WPR有积极影响。虽然教育是女性加入劳动力市场的一个重要预测因素,但其与社会群体的迭代表明,相似的教育水平对不同种姓群体的影响不同。它为旨在大规模在农村地区提供体面生计的政策措施提供了投入,重点是减少种姓和性别差异。JEL代码:E24、J16、J21、J18
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引用次数: 0
What Determines Profitability in the Indian Automobile Industry? 是什么决定了印度汽车工业的盈利能力?
Shilpi Tyagi, Varun Mahajan
This study tends to examine the firm-level profitability determinants of Indian automobile and ancillary industry which is recognised for its global competitiveness. The study uses recent dataset to investigate the firm-level profitability determinants in the Indian automobile and ancillary industry and records the effect of shifts in profitability due to change in economic environment. This study intends at using real financial balanced panel data for a period 1999–2019 and applies the two-step system generalised method of moments regression model with robust standard errors. The study has found that lagged profitability, marketing and advertising intensity, firm’s market power and operational efficiency have exercised positive impact on firm-level profitability. Negative and statistically significant impact of raw material import intensity and export intensity highlights the need of planning and implementation of appropriate investment strategies. The findings of this study suggest that firms should pay more attention to optimise their operating expenditures, marketing and advertisement expenditures and expand their market power as a part of their survival and growth strategy. JEL Code: L25
本研究倾向于研究印度汽车和辅助产业的企业层面的盈利能力决定因素,这是公认的全球竞争力。本研究使用最新的数据集来调查印度汽车和辅助行业的企业层面的盈利能力决定因素,并记录了由于经济环境变化而导致的盈利能力变化的影响。本研究拟使用1999-2019年期间的真实财务平衡面板数据,并应用具有稳健标准误差的矩回归模型的两步系统广义方法。研究发现,滞后盈利能力、营销和广告强度、企业的市场支配力和经营效率对企业层面的盈利能力有正向影响。原材料进口强度和出口强度的负面和统计显著影响突出了规划和实施适当投资战略的必要性。研究结果表明,企业应更加注重优化其运营支出、营销和广告支出,并扩大其市场力量,作为其生存和增长战略的一部分。JEL代码:L25
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引用次数: 1
Inclusiveness of Poverty Reduction: A Study of Andhra Pradesh and Telangana 减贫的包容性:对安得拉邦和特伦甘纳的研究
Priyabrata Sahoo, Kalandi Charan Pradhan, T. Nayak
This study examines the inclusiveness of poverty reduction among the newly formed states of undivided Andhra Pradesh by looking into the poverty among the different socio-religious groups both in the rural and urban regions during the 2000’s. The major proposition that has highlighted in this study: which socio-religious groups are more poverty ridden in the undivided Andhra Pradesh and its bifurcated states (Andhra Pradesh and Telangana)? The National Sample Survey Organisation unit level data (61st and 68th rounds) on Consumption Expenditure Survey have been used for the analysis. The result reveals that Telangana is having lower poverty level than Andhra Pradesh and records a faster reduction in poverty during 2004–2005 to 2011–2012. Andhra Pradesh constitutes around 70% of the total poor of the undivided Andhra Pradesh. This study found that most of the Scheduled Tribes, Scheduled Castes among the social groups and Muslims among the religious groups are more vulnerable and having higher head count ratio than the state average. Although several welfare programmes and schemes have already been implemented to eradicate poverty and inequality, still it is not effective in the ground level. Based on this argument, our study suggests that the schemes should focus on different sections of the people irrespective of rural and urban sectors in both the recently bifurcated states of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. JEL Codes: I 32, D 63, P 25
这项研究通过调查2000年代农村和城市地区不同社会宗教群体的贫困情况,考察了新成立的安得拉邦减贫的包容性。本研究强调的主要命题是:在不可分割的安得拉邦及其分裂的邦(安得拉邦和特伦甘纳邦),哪些社会宗教团体更贫困?国家抽样调查组织单位层面的消费支出调查数据(第61轮和第68轮)已用于分析。结果显示,特伦甘纳的贫困水平低于安得拉邦,并且在2004-2005年至2011-2012年期间贫困减少速度更快。安得拉邦约占未分割的安得拉邦穷人总数的70%。这项研究发现,大多数在册部落、社会群体中的在册种姓和宗教群体中的穆斯林更容易受到伤害,人口比例高于州平均水平。尽管已经实施了一些消除贫困和不平等的福利方案和计划,但在基层仍然没有效果。基于这一论点,我们的研究表明,在最近分裂的特伦甘纳邦和安得拉邦,这些计划应该关注不同的人群,而不考虑农村和城市部门。JEL代码:I 32、D 63、P 25
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Indian economic journal : the quarterly journal of the Indian Economic Association
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