Jie Liu, Xiliang Sun, Qiang Guo, Zhiwei Yang, Bin Wang, Senmu Yao, Haiwei Xie, Changtao Hu
Avalanche susceptibility assessment is a core aspect of regional avalanche early warning and risk analysis and is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation on proposed highways. Using sky–ground integration investigation, 83 avalanche points within the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor were identified, and the avalanche hazard susceptibility of the transportation corridor was partitioned using the certainty factor (CF) model and the coupled coefficient of the certainty factor–Geodetector (CF-GD) model. The CF model analysis presented nine elements of natural conditions which influence avalanche development; then, by applying the Geodetector for each of the factors, a weighting coefficient was given depending on its importance for avalanche occurrence. The results demonstrate the following: (1) According to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve used to verify the accuracy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for the CF-GD coupled model is 0.889, which is better than the value of 0.836 of the CF model’s evaluation accuracy, and the coupled model improves the accuracy by about 6.34% compared with the single model, indicating that the coupled model is more accurate. The results provide avalanche prevention and control recommendations for the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor. (2) The slope orientation, slope gradient, and mean winter temperature gradient are the main factors for avalanche development in the study area. (3) The results were validated based on the AUC values. The AUCs of the CF-GD coupled model and the CF model were 0.889 and 0.836, respectively. The accuracy of the coupled model was improved by about 6.34% compared to the single model, and the coupled CF-GD model was more accurate. The results provide avalanche control recommendations for the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor.
{"title":"Snow Avalanche Susceptibility Mapping of Transportation Corridors Based on Coupled Certainty Factor and Geodetector Models","authors":"Jie Liu, Xiliang Sun, Qiang Guo, Zhiwei Yang, Bin Wang, Senmu Yao, Haiwei Xie, Changtao Hu","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091096","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091096","url":null,"abstract":"Avalanche susceptibility assessment is a core aspect of regional avalanche early warning and risk analysis and is of great significance for disaster prevention and mitigation on proposed highways. Using sky–ground integration investigation, 83 avalanche points within the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor were identified, and the avalanche hazard susceptibility of the transportation corridor was partitioned using the certainty factor (CF) model and the coupled coefficient of the certainty factor–Geodetector (CF-GD) model. The CF model analysis presented nine elements of natural conditions which influence avalanche development; then, by applying the Geodetector for each of the factors, a weighting coefficient was given depending on its importance for avalanche occurrence. The results demonstrate the following: (1) According to the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve used to verify the accuracy, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) value for the CF-GD coupled model is 0.889, which is better than the value of 0.836 of the CF model’s evaluation accuracy, and the coupled model improves the accuracy by about 6.34% compared with the single model, indicating that the coupled model is more accurate. The results provide avalanche prevention and control recommendations for the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor. (2) The slope orientation, slope gradient, and mean winter temperature gradient are the main factors for avalanche development in the study area. (3) The results were validated based on the AUC values. The AUCs of the CF-GD coupled model and the CF model were 0.889 and 0.836, respectively. The accuracy of the coupled model was improved by about 6.34% compared to the single model, and the coupled CF-GD model was more accurate. The results provide avalanche control recommendations for the G219 Wen Quan to Horgos transportation corridor.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"30 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190157","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yenca Migoya-Orué, Oladipo E. Abe, Sandro Radicella
In this paper, we investigate and propose the application of an unsupervised machine learning clustering method to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of ionospheric plasma irregularities over the Western African equatorial region. The ordinary Kriging algorithm was used to interpolate the rate of change of the total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) over gridded 0.5° by 0.5° latitude and longitude regional maps in order to simulate the level of ionospheric plasma irregularities in a quasi-real-time scenario. K-means was used to obtain a spatial mean index through an optimal stratification of regional post-processed ROTI maps. The results obtained could be adapted by appropriate K-means algorithms to a real-time scenario, as has been performed for other applications. This method could allow us to monitor plasma irregularities in real time over the African region and, therefore, lead to the possibility of mitigating their effects on satellite-based location systems in the said region.
{"title":"Regional Spatial Mean of Ionospheric Irregularities Based on K-Means Clustering of ROTI Maps","authors":"Yenca Migoya-Orué, Oladipo E. Abe, Sandro Radicella","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091098","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091098","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we investigate and propose the application of an unsupervised machine learning clustering method to characterize the spatial and temporal distribution of ionospheric plasma irregularities over the Western African equatorial region. The ordinary Kriging algorithm was used to interpolate the rate of change of the total electron content (TEC) index (ROTI) over gridded 0.5° by 0.5° latitude and longitude regional maps in order to simulate the level of ionospheric plasma irregularities in a quasi-real-time scenario. K-means was used to obtain a spatial mean index through an optimal stratification of regional post-processed ROTI maps. The results obtained could be adapted by appropriate K-means algorithms to a real-time scenario, as has been performed for other applications. This method could allow us to monitor plasma irregularities in real time over the African region and, therefore, lead to the possibility of mitigating their effects on satellite-based location systems in the said region.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190158","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Bianca Tenti, Massimiliano Romana, Giuseppe Carlino, Rossella Prandi, Enrico Ferrero
Timely forecast of atmospheric pollutants fallout due to accidental fires can provide decision-makers with useful information for effective emergency response, for planning environmental monitoring and for conveying essential alerts to the population to minimize health risks. The SAPERI project (Accelerated simulation of accidental releases in the atmosphere on heterogeneous platforms—from its Italian initials) implements a modeling chain to quickly supply evidence about the dispersion of pollutants accidentally released in the atmosphere, even in the early stages of the emergency when full knowledge of the incident details is missing. The SAPERI modeling chain relies on SPRAY-WEB, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model openly shared for research purposes, parallelized on a GPU to take advantage of local or cloud computing resources and interfaced with open meteorological forecasts made available by the Meteo Italian SupercompuTing PoRtAL (MISTRAL) consortium over Italy. The operational model provides a quantitative and qualitative estimate of the impact of the emergency event by means of a maximum ground level concentration and a footprint map. In this work, the SAPERI modeling chain is tested in a real case event that occurred in Beinasco (Torino, Italy) in December 2021, mimicking its use with limited or missing local input data as occurs when an alert message is first issued. An evaluation of the meteorology forecast is carried out by comparing the wind and temperature fields obtained from MISTRAL with observations from weather stations. The concentrations obtained from the dispersion model are then compared with the observations at three air quality monitoring stations impacted by the event.
{"title":"SAPERI: An Emergency Modeling Chain for Simulating Accidental Releases of Pollutants into the Atmosphere","authors":"Bianca Tenti, Massimiliano Romana, Giuseppe Carlino, Rossella Prandi, Enrico Ferrero","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091095","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091095","url":null,"abstract":"Timely forecast of atmospheric pollutants fallout due to accidental fires can provide decision-makers with useful information for effective emergency response, for planning environmental monitoring and for conveying essential alerts to the population to minimize health risks. The SAPERI project (Accelerated simulation of accidental releases in the atmosphere on heterogeneous platforms—from its Italian initials) implements a modeling chain to quickly supply evidence about the dispersion of pollutants accidentally released in the atmosphere, even in the early stages of the emergency when full knowledge of the incident details is missing. The SAPERI modeling chain relies on SPRAY-WEB, a Lagrangian particle dispersion model openly shared for research purposes, parallelized on a GPU to take advantage of local or cloud computing resources and interfaced with open meteorological forecasts made available by the Meteo Italian SupercompuTing PoRtAL (MISTRAL) consortium over Italy. The operational model provides a quantitative and qualitative estimate of the impact of the emergency event by means of a maximum ground level concentration and a footprint map. In this work, the SAPERI modeling chain is tested in a real case event that occurred in Beinasco (Torino, Italy) in December 2021, mimicking its use with limited or missing local input data as occurs when an alert message is first issued. An evaluation of the meteorology forecast is carried out by comparing the wind and temperature fields obtained from MISTRAL with observations from weather stations. The concentrations obtained from the dispersion model are then compared with the observations at three air quality monitoring stations impacted by the event.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Absorbing aerosols can absorb solar radiation, affect the atmospheric radiation balance, and further have a profound influence on the global and regional climates. The absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) as well as the absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) across China over 2005–2018 were systematically studied through the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) dataset. The monthly AAOD samples from the OMI generally showed a good correlation (~0.55) compared to the monthly data from AERONET at four typical sites (North: Xianghe, East: Taihu, South: Hongkong Polytechnic Univ; Northwest: Sacol) across China. The ensemble annual average of the OMI AAOD at 388 and 500 nm is 0.046 and 0.022, with minor changes during 2005–2015, and a relatively fast increase after that. The winter and spring seasons depict the maximum mean AAODs, followed by autumn, whereas summer shows minimum levels. On the contrary, the high AAE values appear in summer and low values in winter. The order of the annual average AAOD500 from 2005 to 2018 is the Tarim Basin (TB, 0.041) > the Yellow River Basin (YRB, 0.023) > Beijing and Tianjin (BT, 0.026) > the Sichuan Basin (SB, 0.023) > Nanjing and Shanghai (NS, 0.021) > the Pearl River Delta (PRD, 0.017), whereas the AAE388–500 exhibits the opposite trend except for the TB (3.058). From 2005 to 2018, the AAOD rises by nearly 1.5–2.0 fold in the six typical regions, implying a severe situation of dust and/or BC aerosol pollution in the last several years. The monthly mean AAOD388 over the TB, the SB, the YRB, BT, the PRD, and NS is estimated to be smallest at 0.072, 0.024, 0.026, and 0.027 in July, 0.024 in June, and 0.025 in September, respectively, whilst largest in January for NS, the YRB and BT, April for the TB, February for the SB, and March for the PRD with 0.055, 0.077 and 0.067, 0.123, and 0.073 and 0.075, respectively. The monthly averaged AAOD500 in each region is consistently about half of the AAOD388. The highest AAE appears in June while the lowest values are in December and January, and the daily AAE values in episode days slightly decrease as compared to non-episode days. Our study indicates that northwestern China plays an important role in the overall AAOD as a result of dust aerosols stemming from desert areas. Moreover, the meteorological conditions in winter and early spring are associated with more energy consumption conducive to the accumulation of high black carbon (BC) aerosol pollution, causing high alert levels of AAOD from November to the following March.
{"title":"Spatiotemporal Variation in Absorption Aerosol Optical Depth over China","authors":"Mao Mao, Huan Jiang, Xiaolin Zhang","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091099","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091099","url":null,"abstract":"Absorbing aerosols can absorb solar radiation, affect the atmospheric radiation balance, and further have a profound influence on the global and regional climates. The absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) as well as the absorption Angstrom exponent (AAE) across China over 2005–2018 were systematically studied through the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) dataset. The monthly AAOD samples from the OMI generally showed a good correlation (~0.55) compared to the monthly data from AERONET at four typical sites (North: Xianghe, East: Taihu, South: Hongkong Polytechnic Univ; Northwest: Sacol) across China. The ensemble annual average of the OMI AAOD at 388 and 500 nm is 0.046 and 0.022, with minor changes during 2005–2015, and a relatively fast increase after that. The winter and spring seasons depict the maximum mean AAODs, followed by autumn, whereas summer shows minimum levels. On the contrary, the high AAE values appear in summer and low values in winter. The order of the annual average AAOD500 from 2005 to 2018 is the Tarim Basin (TB, 0.041) > the Yellow River Basin (YRB, 0.023) > Beijing and Tianjin (BT, 0.026) > the Sichuan Basin (SB, 0.023) > Nanjing and Shanghai (NS, 0.021) > the Pearl River Delta (PRD, 0.017), whereas the AAE388–500 exhibits the opposite trend except for the TB (3.058). From 2005 to 2018, the AAOD rises by nearly 1.5–2.0 fold in the six typical regions, implying a severe situation of dust and/or BC aerosol pollution in the last several years. The monthly mean AAOD388 over the TB, the SB, the YRB, BT, the PRD, and NS is estimated to be smallest at 0.072, 0.024, 0.026, and 0.027 in July, 0.024 in June, and 0.025 in September, respectively, whilst largest in January for NS, the YRB and BT, April for the TB, February for the SB, and March for the PRD with 0.055, 0.077 and 0.067, 0.123, and 0.073 and 0.075, respectively. The monthly averaged AAOD500 in each region is consistently about half of the AAOD388. The highest AAE appears in June while the lowest values are in December and January, and the daily AAE values in episode days slightly decrease as compared to non-episode days. Our study indicates that northwestern China plays an important role in the overall AAOD as a result of dust aerosols stemming from desert areas. Moreover, the meteorological conditions in winter and early spring are associated with more energy consumption conducive to the accumulation of high black carbon (BC) aerosol pollution, causing high alert levels of AAOD from November to the following March.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190160","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the 21st century, the rapid urbanization process has led to increasingly severe urban heat island effects and other urban thermal environment issues, posing significant challenges to urban planning and environmental management. This study focuses on Zhengzhou, China, utilizing Landsat remote sensing imagery data from five key years between 2000 and 2020. By applying atmospheric correction methods, we accurately retrieved the land surface temperature (LST). The study employed a gravity center migration model to track the spatial changes of heat island patches and used the geographical detector method to quantitatively analyze the combined impact of surface characteristics, meteorological conditions, and socio-economic factors on the urban heat island effect. Results show that the LST in Zhengzhou exhibits a fluctuating growth trend, closely related to the expansion of built-up areas and urban planning. High-temperature zones are mainly concentrated in built-up areas, while low-temperature zones are primarily found in areas covered by water bodies and vegetation. Notably, the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are the two most significant factors influencing the spatial distribution of land surface temperature, with explanatory power reaching 42.7% and 41.3%, respectively. As urban development enters a stable stage, government environmental management measures have played a positive role in mitigating the urban heat island effect. This study not only provides a scientific basis for understanding the spatiotemporal changes in land surface temperature in Zhengzhou but also offers new technical support for urban planning and management, helping to alleviate the urban heat island effect and improve the living environment quality for urban residents.
{"title":"Remote Sensing Monitoring and Multidimensional Impact Factor Analysis of Urban Heat Island Effect in Zhengzhou City","authors":"Xiangjun Zhang, Guoqing Li, Haikun Yu, Guangxu Gao, Zhengfang Lou","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091097","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091097","url":null,"abstract":"In the 21st century, the rapid urbanization process has led to increasingly severe urban heat island effects and other urban thermal environment issues, posing significant challenges to urban planning and environmental management. This study focuses on Zhengzhou, China, utilizing Landsat remote sensing imagery data from five key years between 2000 and 2020. By applying atmospheric correction methods, we accurately retrieved the land surface temperature (LST). The study employed a gravity center migration model to track the spatial changes of heat island patches and used the geographical detector method to quantitatively analyze the combined impact of surface characteristics, meteorological conditions, and socio-economic factors on the urban heat island effect. Results show that the LST in Zhengzhou exhibits a fluctuating growth trend, closely related to the expansion of built-up areas and urban planning. High-temperature zones are mainly concentrated in built-up areas, while low-temperature zones are primarily found in areas covered by water bodies and vegetation. Notably, the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are the two most significant factors influencing the spatial distribution of land surface temperature, with explanatory power reaching 42.7% and 41.3%, respectively. As urban development enters a stable stage, government environmental management measures have played a positive role in mitigating the urban heat island effect. This study not only provides a scientific basis for understanding the spatiotemporal changes in land surface temperature in Zhengzhou but also offers new technical support for urban planning and management, helping to alleviate the urban heat island effect and improve the living environment quality for urban residents.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190159","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Baoqi Li, Yanyu Chi, Hang Zhou, Shaoxiong Zhang, Yao Lu
Extreme climate events are occurring frequently under global warming. Previous studies primarily focused on isolated extreme climate events, whereas research on the synergistic changes between extreme cold (EC) and extreme warm (EW) events remains limited. This study conducted trend, correlation, and dispersion analyses on EC and EW, as well as their synergistic changes, in the Sanjiang Plain from 1960 to 2019, using inverse distance weighting, statistical methods, and the Mann–Kendall test. The results indicated that cold-to-warm (C2W) and warm-to-cold (W2C) events were significantly and positively correlated with elevation, with correlation coefficients (r) of 0.76 and 0.84, respectively. Meanwhile, C2W showed a significant negative correlation with latitude (r = −0.55), while W2C also exhibited a significant negative correlation with latitude (r = −0.71). However, there was a significant positive correlation between (EC) and latitude (r = 0.65). After 1980, both the declining trend of EC and the increasing trend of EW slowed down, and the trends in C2W and W2C changed from decline to increase. The dispersion of EC and EW shows an increasing trend, while the dispersion of C2W and W2C exhibits a decreasing trend. This study provides important references for studying temperature fluctuations and addressing extreme climate changes.
{"title":"The Study of Synergistic Changes in Extreme Cold and Warm Events in the Sanjiang Plain","authors":"Baoqi Li, Yanyu Chi, Hang Zhou, Shaoxiong Zhang, Yao Lu","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091092","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091092","url":null,"abstract":"Extreme climate events are occurring frequently under global warming. Previous studies primarily focused on isolated extreme climate events, whereas research on the synergistic changes between extreme cold (EC) and extreme warm (EW) events remains limited. This study conducted trend, correlation, and dispersion analyses on EC and EW, as well as their synergistic changes, in the Sanjiang Plain from 1960 to 2019, using inverse distance weighting, statistical methods, and the Mann–Kendall test. The results indicated that cold-to-warm (C2W) and warm-to-cold (W2C) events were significantly and positively correlated with elevation, with correlation coefficients (r) of 0.76 and 0.84, respectively. Meanwhile, C2W showed a significant negative correlation with latitude (r = −0.55), while W2C also exhibited a significant negative correlation with latitude (r = −0.71). However, there was a significant positive correlation between (EC) and latitude (r = 0.65). After 1980, both the declining trend of EC and the increasing trend of EW slowed down, and the trends in C2W and W2C changed from decline to increase. The dispersion of EC and EW shows an increasing trend, while the dispersion of C2W and W2C exhibits a decreasing trend. This study provides important references for studying temperature fluctuations and addressing extreme climate changes.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190179","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration is highly challenging due to its evolution processes have complex and nonlinear patterns. Traditional mode decomposition methods struggle to accurately capture the mode features of PM2.5 concentrations. In this study, we utilized the global linearization capabilities of the Koopman method to analyze the hourly and daily spatiotemporal processes of PM2.5 concentration in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region from 2019 to 2021. This approach decomposes the data into the superposition of different spatial modes, revealing their hierarchical spatiotemporal structure and reconstructing the dynamic processes. The results show that PM2.5 concentrations exhibit high-frequency cycles of 12 and 24 h, as well as low-frequency cycles of 124 and 353 days, while also revealing spatiotemporal modes of growth, recession, and oscillation. The superposition of these modes enables the reconstruction of spatiotemporal dynamics with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of only 0.6%. Unlike empirical mode decomposition (EMD), Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) method avoids mode aliasing and provides a clearer identification of global and key modes compared to wavelet analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of KMD method in analyzing and reconstructing the spatiotemporal dynamics of PM2.5 concentration, offering new insights into the understanding and reconstruction of other complex spatiotemporal phenomena.
{"title":"Analysis of Global and Key PM2.5 Dynamic Mode Decomposition Based on the Koopman Method","authors":"Yuhan Yu, Dantong Liu, Bin Wang, Feng Zhang","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091091","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091091","url":null,"abstract":"Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of atmospheric PM2.5 concentration is highly challenging due to its evolution processes have complex and nonlinear patterns. Traditional mode decomposition methods struggle to accurately capture the mode features of PM2.5 concentrations. In this study, we utilized the global linearization capabilities of the Koopman method to analyze the hourly and daily spatiotemporal processes of PM2.5 concentration in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region from 2019 to 2021. This approach decomposes the data into the superposition of different spatial modes, revealing their hierarchical spatiotemporal structure and reconstructing the dynamic processes. The results show that PM2.5 concentrations exhibit high-frequency cycles of 12 and 24 h, as well as low-frequency cycles of 124 and 353 days, while also revealing spatiotemporal modes of growth, recession, and oscillation. The superposition of these modes enables the reconstruction of spatiotemporal dynamics with a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of only 0.6%. Unlike empirical mode decomposition (EMD), Koopman mode decomposition (KMD) method avoids mode aliasing and provides a clearer identification of global and key modes compared to wavelet analysis. These findings underscore the effectiveness of KMD method in analyzing and reconstructing the spatiotemporal dynamics of PM2.5 concentration, offering new insights into the understanding and reconstruction of other complex spatiotemporal phenomena.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"18 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Zhaopeng Li, Kai Zhao, Xiaoling Yuan, Yinan Zhou, Li Yang, Hanyu Geng
China’s approach to air pollution control has been shown successful in East Asian countries and even elsewhere in the world. The analysis of the evolution and control of air pollution in China over the past 75 years can be used as a reference for developing countries suffering from air pollution resulting from urbanization. Based on the sorting and mining of relevant indicators, data and policy texts from the areas of population, economy, space and social urbanization, the findings suggest that the presence of air pollution and its changing forms indeed have complex interactive relationships with the process of urbanization. Specifically: (1) the feature of air pollution has changed from “single pollutant and pollution source to multiple pollutants and pollution source, local pollution to regional pollution, light pollution to heavy compound pollution” as a result of urbanization, the emphasizing of construction and the neglect of governance, the emphasizing of economics and the neglect of ecology, and the emphasizing of immediate interests over long-term interests; (2) the interactive relationship between air pollution and urbanization has also gone through three stages from being irrelevant each other to “urbanization determines air pollution” and then “air pollution restricts urbanization”; (3) this has forced air pollution control to shift from the traditional “treating symptoms” to “high-quality urbanization”, thus promoting air pollution and urbanization to move “from confrontation to unification”. Therefore, air pollution control is not a simple technical issue; one of the keys lies in exploring how to adjust the urbanization model, so as to achieve the “win–win” of urbanization and air pollution control.
{"title":"Evolution and Control of Air Pollution in China over the Past 75 Years: An Analytical Framework Based on the Multi-Dimensional Urbanization","authors":"Zhaopeng Li, Kai Zhao, Xiaoling Yuan, Yinan Zhou, Li Yang, Hanyu Geng","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091093","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091093","url":null,"abstract":"China’s approach to air pollution control has been shown successful in East Asian countries and even elsewhere in the world. The analysis of the evolution and control of air pollution in China over the past 75 years can be used as a reference for developing countries suffering from air pollution resulting from urbanization. Based on the sorting and mining of relevant indicators, data and policy texts from the areas of population, economy, space and social urbanization, the findings suggest that the presence of air pollution and its changing forms indeed have complex interactive relationships with the process of urbanization. Specifically: (1) the feature of air pollution has changed from “single pollutant and pollution source to multiple pollutants and pollution source, local pollution to regional pollution, light pollution to heavy compound pollution” as a result of urbanization, the emphasizing of construction and the neglect of governance, the emphasizing of economics and the neglect of ecology, and the emphasizing of immediate interests over long-term interests; (2) the interactive relationship between air pollution and urbanization has also gone through three stages from being irrelevant each other to “urbanization determines air pollution” and then “air pollution restricts urbanization”; (3) this has forced air pollution control to shift from the traditional “treating symptoms” to “high-quality urbanization”, thus promoting air pollution and urbanization to move “from confrontation to unification”. Therefore, air pollution control is not a simple technical issue; one of the keys lies in exploring how to adjust the urbanization model, so as to achieve the “win–win” of urbanization and air pollution control.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this study, a stepwise multifactor vegetation regression analysis (SMVRA) approach was proposed to investigate the interaction of multiple climate factors on vegetative growth in the study area from 2000 to 2020. It was developed by integrating the stepwise linear regression method, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Pearson correlation coefficient. SMVRA can be used to intuitively understand the interactive effects of multiple correlated factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the drought index) upon vegetation. The results show that the resilience of vegetation in the BLR basin is influenced by the severity of drought. Annual changes in SPEI over the BLR basin show an increasing trend, with rates of 3.12 × 10−2. Precipitation and NDVI had a strong positive correlation (p < 0.05), found for 34.93% of the total pixels in the study area. In the BLR basin, vegetation growth is inhibited in the 4 years following a drought event. The area near 800 m is most sensitive to drought events. It provides a theoretical basis for future drought response and effective vegetation restoration in the region.
{"title":"A Stepwise Multifactor Regression Analysis of the Interactive Effects of Multiple Climate Factors on the Response of Vegetation Recovery to Drought","authors":"Jingjing Fan, Yue Zhao, Dongnan Wang, Xiong Zhou, Yunyun Li, Wenwei Zhang, Fanfan Xu, Shibo Wei","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091094","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091094","url":null,"abstract":"In this study, a stepwise multifactor vegetation regression analysis (SMVRA) approach was proposed to investigate the interaction of multiple climate factors on vegetative growth in the study area from 2000 to 2020. It was developed by integrating the stepwise linear regression method, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and Pearson correlation coefficient. SMVRA can be used to intuitively understand the interactive effects of multiple correlated factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and the drought index) upon vegetation. The results show that the resilience of vegetation in the BLR basin is influenced by the severity of drought. Annual changes in SPEI over the BLR basin show an increasing trend, with rates of 3.12 × 10−2. Precipitation and NDVI had a strong positive correlation (p < 0.05), found for 34.93% of the total pixels in the study area. In the BLR basin, vegetation growth is inhibited in the 4 years following a drought event. The area near 800 m is most sensitive to drought events. It provides a theoretical basis for future drought response and effective vegetation restoration in the region.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"58 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190183","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Accurate forecasting of wind speeds is a crucial aspect of providing fine-scale professional meteorological services (such as wind energy generation and transportation operations etc.). This article utilizes CMA-MESO model forecast data and CARAS-SUR_1 km ground truth grid data from January, April, July, and October 2022, employing the random forest algorithm to establish and evaluate a downscaling correction model for near-surface 1 km resolution wind-speed grid forecast in the complex terrain area of northwestern Hebei Province. The results indicate that after downscaling correction, the spatial distribution of grid forecast wind speeds in the entire complex terrain study area becomes more refined, with spatial resolution improving from 3 km to 1 km, reflecting fine-scale terrain effects. The accuracy of the corrected wind speed forecast significantly improves compared to the original model, with forecast errors showing stability in both time and space. The mean bias decreases from 2.25 m/s to 0.02 m/s, and the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases from 3.26 m/s to 0.52 m/s. Forecast errors caused by complex terrain, forecast lead time, and seasonal factors are significantly reduced. In terms of wind speed categories, the correction significantly improves forecasts for wind speeds below 8 m/s, with RMSE decreasing from 2.02 m/s to 0.59 m/s. For wind speeds above 8 m/s, there is also a good correction effect, with RMSE decreasing from 2.20 m/s to 1.65 m/s. Selecting the analysis of the Zhangjiakou strong wind process on 26 April 2022, it was found that the downscaled corrected forecast wind speed is very close to the observed wind speed at the station and the ground truth grid points. The correction effect is particularly significant in areas affected by strong winds, such as the Bashang Plateau and valleys, which has significant reference value.
准确的风速预报是提供精细化专业气象服务（如风能发电和交通运营等）的关键环节。本文利用2022年1月、4月、7月和10月的CMA-MESO模式预报资料和CARAS-SUR_1 km地面真实网格资料，采用随机森林算法，建立并评估了河北省西北部复杂地形区近地面1 km分辨率风速网格预报降尺度校正模型。结果表明，经过降尺度校正后，整个复杂地形研究区网格预报风速的空间分布更加精细，空间分辨率从 3 km 提高到 1 km，反映了精细尺度的地形效应。与原始模型相比，修正后的风速预报精度显著提高，预报误差在时间和空间上都表现出稳定性。平均偏差从 2.25 m/s 降至 0.02 m/s，均方根误差（RMSE）从 3.26 m/s 降至 0.52 m/s。复杂地形、预报准备时间和季节因素造成的预报误差明显减小。就风速类别而言，修正后的预报明显改善了风速低于 8 m/s 的预报，RMSE 从 2.02 m/s 降至 0.59 m/s。对于 8 米/秒以上的风速，校正效果也很好，均方根误差从 2.20 米/秒降至 1.65 米/秒。选择 2022 年 4 月 26 日张家口强风过程进行分析，发现降尺度校正后的预报风速与观测站和地面实况格点的观测风速非常接近。特别是在受强风影响的地区，如巴山高原和山谷，校正效果尤为显著，具有重要的参考价值。
{"title":"Study on Downscaling Correction of Near-Surface Wind Speed Grid Forecasts in Complex Terrain","authors":"Xin Liu, Zhimin Li, Yanbo Shen","doi":"10.3390/atmos15091090","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos15091090","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate forecasting of wind speeds is a crucial aspect of providing fine-scale professional meteorological services (such as wind energy generation and transportation operations etc.). This article utilizes CMA-MESO model forecast data and CARAS-SUR_1 km ground truth grid data from January, April, July, and October 2022, employing the random forest algorithm to establish and evaluate a downscaling correction model for near-surface 1 km resolution wind-speed grid forecast in the complex terrain area of northwestern Hebei Province. The results indicate that after downscaling correction, the spatial distribution of grid forecast wind speeds in the entire complex terrain study area becomes more refined, with spatial resolution improving from 3 km to 1 km, reflecting fine-scale terrain effects. The accuracy of the corrected wind speed forecast significantly improves compared to the original model, with forecast errors showing stability in both time and space. The mean bias decreases from 2.25 m/s to 0.02 m/s, and the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases from 3.26 m/s to 0.52 m/s. Forecast errors caused by complex terrain, forecast lead time, and seasonal factors are significantly reduced. In terms of wind speed categories, the correction significantly improves forecasts for wind speeds below 8 m/s, with RMSE decreasing from 2.02 m/s to 0.59 m/s. For wind speeds above 8 m/s, there is also a good correction effect, with RMSE decreasing from 2.20 m/s to 1.65 m/s. Selecting the analysis of the Zhangjiakou strong wind process on 26 April 2022, it was found that the downscaled corrected forecast wind speed is very close to the observed wind speed at the station and the ground truth grid points. The correction effect is particularly significant in areas affected by strong winds, such as the Bashang Plateau and valleys, which has significant reference value.","PeriodicalId":8580,"journal":{"name":"Atmosphere","volume":"74 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":2.9,"publicationDate":"2024-09-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142190161","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"地球科学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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