{"title":"Copyright","authors":"","doi":"10.1086/719607","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/719607","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88392382","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electrification of transportation and buildings to reduce greenhouse gas emissions requires massive switching from natural gas and refined petroleum products. All three end-use energy sources are mispriced due in part to the unpriced pollution they emit. Natural gas and electricity utilities also face the classic natural monopoly challenge of recovering fixed costs while maintaining efficient pricing. We study the magnitude of these distortions for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline purchased by residential customers across the continental United States. We find that the net distortion in pricing electricity is much greater than for natural gas or gasoline. Residential customers in much of the country face electricity prices that are well above social marginal cost (private marginal cost plus unpriced externalities), whereas in some areas with large shares of coal-fired generation, prices are below social marginal cost. Combining our estimates of marginal price and social marginal cost for each of the fuels with a large survey of California households’ energy use, we calculate the distribution of annual fuel costs for space heating, water heating, and electric vehicles under actual pricing versus setting price at social marginal cost. We find that moving prices for all three fuels to equal their social marginal cost would significantly increase the incentive for Californians to switch to electricity for these energy services.
{"title":"Headwinds and Tailwinds: Implications of Inefficient Retail Energy Pricing for Energy Substitution","authors":"S. Borenstein, J. Bushnell","doi":"10.1086/717218","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717218","url":null,"abstract":"Electrification of transportation and buildings to reduce greenhouse gas emissions requires massive switching from natural gas and refined petroleum products. All three end-use energy sources are mispriced due in part to the unpriced pollution they emit. Natural gas and electricity utilities also face the classic natural monopoly challenge of recovering fixed costs while maintaining efficient pricing. We study the magnitude of these distortions for electricity, natural gas, and gasoline purchased by residential customers across the continental United States. We find that the net distortion in pricing electricity is much greater than for natural gas or gasoline. Residential customers in much of the country face electricity prices that are well above social marginal cost (private marginal cost plus unpriced externalities), whereas in some areas with large shares of coal-fired generation, prices are below social marginal cost. Combining our estimates of marginal price and social marginal cost for each of the fuels with a large survey of California households’ energy use, we calculate the distribution of annual fuel costs for space heating, water heating, and electric vehicles under actual pricing versus setting price at social marginal cost. We find that moving prices for all three fuels to equal their social marginal cost would significantly increase the incentive for Californians to switch to electricity for these energy services.","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84795084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Electric vehicles are declining in cost so rapidly that they may claim a large share of the vehicle market by 2030. This paper examines a set of practical regulatory design considerations for fuel-economy standards or greenhouse gas standards in the context of highly uncertain electric vehicle costs in the next decade. The analysis takes a cost-effectiveness approach and uses analytical modeling and simulation to develop insight. I show that counting electric vehicles under a standard with a multiplier or assuming zero upstream emissions can reduce electric vehicle market share by weakening the standards. Furthermore, there are trade-offs from implementing a backstop conventional vehicle standard along with a second standard that also includes electric vehicles, but such a backstop offers the possibility of ensuring that low-cost conventional vehicle technologies are exploited.
{"title":"Designing Fuel-Economy Standards in Light of Electric Vehicles","authors":"K. Gillingham","doi":"10.1086/717220","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717220","url":null,"abstract":"Electric vehicles are declining in cost so rapidly that they may claim a large share of the vehicle market by 2030. This paper examines a set of practical regulatory design considerations for fuel-economy standards or greenhouse gas standards in the context of highly uncertain electric vehicle costs in the next decade. The analysis takes a cost-effectiveness approach and uses analytical modeling and simulation to develop insight. I show that counting electric vehicles under a standard with a multiplier or assuming zero upstream emissions can reduce electric vehicle market share by weakening the standards. Furthermore, there are trade-offs from implementing a backstop conventional vehicle standard along with a second standard that also includes electric vehicles, but such a backstop offers the possibility of ensuring that low-cost conventional vehicle technologies are exploited.","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78295274","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper identifies and quantifies major determinants of future electric vehicle demand to inform widely held aspirations for market growth. Our model compares three channels that will affect electric vehicle market share in the United States from 2020 to 2035: intrinsic (no-subsidy) electric vehicle demand growth, net-of-subsidy electric vehicle cost declines (e.g., batteries), and government subsidies. Geographic variation in preferences for sedans and light trucks highlights the importance of viable electric vehicle alternatives to conventional light trucks; belief in climate change is highly correlated with electric vehicle adoption patterns; and the first $500 billion in cumulative nationwide electric vehicle subsidies is associated a 7%–10% increase in electric vehicle market share in 2035, an effect that diminishes as subsidies increase. The rate of intrinsic demand growth dwarfs the impact of demand-side subsidies and battery cost declines, highlighting the importance of nonmonetary factors (e.g., charging infrastructure, product quality, and/or cultural acceptance) on electric vehicle demand.
{"title":"Future Paths of Electric Vehicle Adoption in the United States: Predictable Determinants, Obstacles, and Opportunities","authors":"James Archsmith, E. Muehlegger, D. Rapson","doi":"10.1086/717219","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717219","url":null,"abstract":"This paper identifies and quantifies major determinants of future electric vehicle demand to inform widely held aspirations for market growth. Our model compares three channels that will affect electric vehicle market share in the United States from 2020 to 2035: intrinsic (no-subsidy) electric vehicle demand growth, net-of-subsidy electric vehicle cost declines (e.g., batteries), and government subsidies. Geographic variation in preferences for sedans and light trucks highlights the importance of viable electric vehicle alternatives to conventional light trucks; belief in climate change is highly correlated with electric vehicle adoption patterns; and the first $500 billion in cumulative nationwide electric vehicle subsidies is associated a 7%–10% increase in electric vehicle market share in 2035, an effect that diminishes as subsidies increase. The rate of intrinsic demand growth dwarfs the impact of demand-side subsidies and battery cost declines, highlighting the importance of nonmonetary factors (e.g., charging infrastructure, product quality, and/or cultural acceptance) on electric vehicle demand.","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"73445785","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Growing amounts of intermittent renewable generation capacity substantially increase the complexity of determining whether sufficient energy will be available to meet hourly demands throughout the year. As the events of August 2020 in California and February 2021 in Texas demonstrate, supply shortfalls can have large economic and public health consequences. An empirical analysis of these two events demonstrates that similar supply shortfalls are likely to occur in the future without a paradigm shift in how long-term resource adequacy is determined for an electricity supply industry with significant intermittent renewables. An alternative approach to determining long-term resource adequacy that explicitly recognizes the characteristics of different generation technologies is outlined and its properties explored relative to current approaches.
{"title":"Long-Term Resource Adequacy in Wholesale Electricity Markets with Significant Intermittent Renewables","authors":"F. Wolak","doi":"10.1086/717221","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/717221","url":null,"abstract":"Growing amounts of intermittent renewable generation capacity substantially increase the complexity of determining whether sufficient energy will be available to meet hourly demands throughout the year. As the events of August 2020 in California and February 2021 in Texas demonstrate, supply shortfalls can have large economic and public health consequences. An empirical analysis of these two events demonstrates that similar supply shortfalls are likely to occur in the future without a paradigm shift in how long-term resource adequacy is determined for an electricity supply industry with significant intermittent renewables. An alternative approach to determining long-term resource adequacy that explicitly recognizes the characteristics of different generation technologies is outlined and its properties explored relative to current approaches.","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75474451","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Tatyana Deryugina, Nolan Miller, David Molitor, Julian Reif
Policies aimed at reducing the harmful effects of air pollution exposure typically focus on areas with high levels of pollution. However, if a population's vulnerability to air pollution is imperfectly correlated with current pollution levels, then this approach to air quality regulation may not efficiently target pollution reduction efforts. We examine the geographic and socioeconomic determinants of vulnerability to dying from acute exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution. We find that there is substantial local and regional variability in the share of individuals who are vulnerable to pollution both at the county and ZIP code level. Vulnerability tends to be negatively related to health and socioeconomic status. Surprisingly, we find that vulnerability is also negatively related to an area's average PM2.5 pollution level, suggesting that basing air quality regulation only on current pollution levels may fail to effectively target regions with the most to gain by reducing exposure.
{"title":"Geographic and Socioeconomic Heterogeneity in the Benefits of Reducing Air Pollution in the United States.","authors":"Tatyana Deryugina, Nolan Miller, David Molitor, Julian Reif","doi":"10.1086/711309","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711309","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Policies aimed at reducing the harmful effects of air pollution exposure typically focus on areas with high levels of pollution. However, if a population's vulnerability to air pollution is imperfectly correlated with current pollution levels, then this approach to air quality regulation may not efficiently target pollution reduction efforts. We examine the geographic and socioeconomic determinants of vulnerability to dying from acute exposure to fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) pollution. We find that there is substantial local and regional variability in the share of individuals who are vulnerable to pollution both at the county and ZIP code level. Vulnerability tends to be negatively related to health and socioeconomic status. Surprisingly, we find that vulnerability is also negatively related to an area's average PM<sub>2.5</sub> pollution level, suggesting that basing air quality regulation only on current pollution levels may fail to effectively target regions with the most to gain by reducing exposure.</p>","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://sci-hub-pdf.com/10.1086/711309","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"25342974","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Copyright","authors":"","doi":"10.1086/713581","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/713581","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74152588","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There is no country in the world that does not have at least one law or policy dealing with climate change. The most prolific countries have well over 20, and globally there are 1,800 such laws. Some of them are executive orders or policies issued by governments, others are legislative acts passed by parliament. The judiciary has been involved in 1,500 court cases that concern climate change (more than 1,100 of which were in the United States). We use Climate Change Laws of the World, a publicly accessible database, to analyze patterns and trends in climate change legislation and litigation over the past 30 years. The data reveal that global legislative activity peaked around 2009–14, well before the Paris Agreement. Accounting for effectiveness in implementation and the length of time laws have been in place, the United Kingdom and South Korea are the most comprehensive legislators among G20 countries and Spain within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Climate change legislation is less of a partisan issue than is commonly assumed: the number of climate laws passed by governments of the left, center, and right is roughly proportional to their time in office. We also find that legislative activity decreases in times of economic difficulty. Where courts have gotten involved, judges outside the United States have ruled in favor of enhanced climate protection in about half of the cases (US judges are more inclined to rule against climate protection).
{"title":"Global Lessons from Climate Change Legislation and Litigation","authors":"S. Eskander, S. Fankhauser, J. Setzer","doi":"10.1086/711306","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711306","url":null,"abstract":"There is no country in the world that does not have at least one law or policy dealing with climate change. The most prolific countries have well over 20, and globally there are 1,800 such laws. Some of them are executive orders or policies issued by governments, others are legislative acts passed by parliament. The judiciary has been involved in 1,500 court cases that concern climate change (more than 1,100 of which were in the United States). We use Climate Change Laws of the World, a publicly accessible database, to analyze patterns and trends in climate change legislation and litigation over the past 30 years. The data reveal that global legislative activity peaked around 2009–14, well before the Paris Agreement. Accounting for effectiveness in implementation and the length of time laws have been in place, the United Kingdom and South Korea are the most comprehensive legislators among G20 countries and Spain within the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Climate change legislation is less of a partisan issue than is commonly assumed: the number of climate laws passed by governments of the left, center, and right is roughly proportional to their time in office. We also find that legislative activity decreases in times of economic difficulty. Where courts have gotten involved, judges outside the United States have ruled in favor of enhanced climate protection in about half of the cases (US judges are more inclined to rule against climate protection).","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78543145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In response to the historic 2011–17 California drought, local governments enacted a raft of conservation policies, and little is known about which ones explain the sharp decline in residential water consumption. To answer this question, we use a novel data set of hourly water consumption data for more than 82,300 households in Fresno, California, where water consumption declined by nearly a third, and have three main findings. First, we estimate the price elasticity of demand for water to be 0.16 for marginal rates and 0.39 for average rates. Second, reducing the number of days where outdoor watering is allowable from 3 to 2 substantially decreases water use, despite the availability of opportunities to substitute between permitted and nonpermitted hours, days, and seasons. Third, “bully pulpit” pronouncements about the water crisis increased public awareness of drought conditions but did not contribute to water savings. Overall, higher water prices explain 40%–44% of the changes in residential water use observed during our sample period in Fresno, and reductions in the number of days when outdoor watering is allowable explain 45%–51% of these changes. However, the absence of experimental or quasi-experimental variation in these policies means that we interpret this associational evidence cautiously.
{"title":"Do Conservation Policies Work? Evidence from Residential Water Use","authors":"Oliver Browne, L. Gazzè, M. Greenstone","doi":"10.1086/711310","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711310","url":null,"abstract":"In response to the historic 2011–17 California drought, local governments enacted a raft of conservation policies, and little is known about which ones explain the sharp decline in residential water consumption. To answer this question, we use a novel data set of hourly water consumption data for more than 82,300 households in Fresno, California, where water consumption declined by nearly a third, and have three main findings. First, we estimate the price elasticity of demand for water to be 0.16 for marginal rates and 0.39 for average rates. Second, reducing the number of days where outdoor watering is allowable from 3 to 2 substantially decreases water use, despite the availability of opportunities to substitute between permitted and nonpermitted hours, days, and seasons. Third, “bully pulpit” pronouncements about the water crisis increased public awareness of drought conditions but did not contribute to water savings. Overall, higher water prices explain 40%–44% of the changes in residential water use observed during our sample period in Fresno, and reductions in the number of days when outdoor watering is allowable explain 45%–51% of these changes. However, the absence of experimental or quasi-experimental variation in these policies means that we interpret this associational evidence cautiously.","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87442133","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Executive Summary This paper examines the implications of a carbon-constrained future on coal-reliant county governments in the United States. We review modeling projections of coal production and argue that some local governments face important revenue risks. Complex systems of revenue and intergovernmental transfers and insufficiently detailed budget data make it difficult to parse out how exposed jurisdictions are to the coal industry. A look at three illustrative counties shows that coal-related revenue may fund a third or more of their budgets. When extrapolated outside the sample, our regression analysis of 27 coal-reliant counties suggests that the demise of coal could lower these counties’ revenue by about 20%. This does not account for the potential downward spiral of other revenues and economic activity as the collapse of the dominant industry erodes the tax base. Coal-dependent communities have issued outstanding bonds that will mature in a period in which climate policy is likely. Our review of illustrative bonds indicates that municipalities have not appropriately characterized their coal-related risks. Climate policies can be combined with investments in coal-dependent communities to support their financial health. We discuss how a small fraction of revenue from a federal carbon price could fund assistance to coal-dependent communities and workers.
{"title":"Revenue at Risk in Coal-Reliant Counties","authors":"A. Morris, Noah Kaufman, Siddhi Doshi","doi":"10.1086/711307","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1086/711307","url":null,"abstract":"Executive Summary This paper examines the implications of a carbon-constrained future on coal-reliant county governments in the United States. We review modeling projections of coal production and argue that some local governments face important revenue risks. Complex systems of revenue and intergovernmental transfers and insufficiently detailed budget data make it difficult to parse out how exposed jurisdictions are to the coal industry. A look at three illustrative counties shows that coal-related revenue may fund a third or more of their budgets. When extrapolated outside the sample, our regression analysis of 27 coal-reliant counties suggests that the demise of coal could lower these counties’ revenue by about 20%. This does not account for the potential downward spiral of other revenues and economic activity as the collapse of the dominant industry erodes the tax base. Coal-dependent communities have issued outstanding bonds that will mature in a period in which climate policy is likely. Our review of illustrative bonds indicates that municipalities have not appropriately characterized their coal-related risks. Climate policies can be combined with investments in coal-dependent communities to support their financial health. We discuss how a small fraction of revenue from a federal carbon price could fund assistance to coal-dependent communities and workers.","PeriodicalId":87249,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and energy policy and the economy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-05-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84162089","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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