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An End of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Sight? COVID-19大流行即将结束?
Pub Date : 2021-09-03 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2021222
E. Steele, R. Gorczynski, R. Lindley, G. Tokoro, D. Wallis, R. Temple, N. C. Wickramasinghe
We have set out to assess the data on the intensity of the COVID-19 pandemic with a view to making plausible predictions of its decline. A plot of "% COVID-19 Associated Death per Day” versus the timing and extent of the roll out of national vaccination campaigns in Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy and USA shows that the decline in the severity of the COVID-19 pandemic was well advanced noticeably before vaccinations began or could have become a significant contributory factor. Israel is an outlier in its manifest decline pattern, yet the data also demonstrate that vaccination has had no discernible impact at all on % Deaths per Day in Israel. © 2022 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
我们已着手评估有关COVID-19大流行强度的数据,以期对其下降做出合理的预测。“每日COVID-19相关死亡百分比”与瑞典、丹麦、荷兰、英国、法国、德国、意大利和美国开展国家疫苗接种运动的时间和范围的对比图表明,在开始接种疫苗之前,COVID-19大流行严重程度的下降就已经明显提前,或者可能成为一个重要的促成因素。以色列在其明显的下降模式中是一个异常值,但数据也表明,疫苗接种对以色列每天的死亡率没有任何明显的影响。©2022世界科学出版有限公司。
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引用次数: 15
Targeting Viral mRNA Translation Control as a New Concept for Anti-Virus Therapeutic Strategies 靶向病毒mRNA翻译控制作为抗病毒治疗策略的新概念
Pub Date : 2021-08-16 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2021221
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引用次数: 0
COVID-19 Sudden Outbreak of Mystery Case Transmissions in Victoria, Australia, May-June 2021: Strong Evidence of Tropospheric Transport of Human Passaged Infective Virions from the Indian Epidemic 2021年5月至6月在澳大利亚维多利亚州突然爆发的COVID-19神秘病例传播:强有力的证据表明,来自印度疫情的人类传染性病毒粒子通过对流层传播
Pub Date : 2021-07-12 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2021214
E. Steele, R. Gorczynski, Patrick Carnegie, G. Tokoro, D. Wallis, R. Temple, Milton, Wainwright, N. Wickramasinghe
A sudden yet very small outbreak of COVID-19 mystery community transmissions occurred in a defined arc across the inner Western and outer Northern suburbs of Melbourne in May-June 2021. An infection zone that could be 1000 km2 in size. These sudden outbreaks of genuine mystery cases could not be traced to any direct infected contacts nor could they be directly genomically linked to any known infection clusters (e.g. among infected international travellers in hotel quarantine). In response the Government of Victoria on the recommendation of the Chief Medical Officer and the Victorian Department of Health locked down the entire State of Victoria in an extreme Stage 4 emergency. As a consequence, large numbers of PCR COVID-19 tests on oro-nasal swabs were conducted (> 30, 000 per day at peak) and all positives quarantined at home, a directive enforced by police and in some cases the Australian Army. Citizens were neither allowed to leave Melbourne nor from Victoria to any other State of Australia. Contact tracing was conducted on a very large scale by teams of experienced tracers. Several sudden mystery outbreaks continued to occur despite the lock-down on people movements. This included restriction of numbers of visitors at homes, crowd-size limitations, curtailment of sporting events, school closures, mandatory mask wearing, and personal tracking of all individuals in shops and supermarkets (via a personal "QR” digital tracking system linked to mobile phones or via written personal contact statements at store or shop entry). Many of the COVID-19 variants of concern (PANGO classification) were clearly mature human-passaged virions, many of which have been identified in the current and very large 2nd Wave Indian epidemic. We show here there is plausible strong evidence that a heterogeneous set of these "Indian” variants may have been transported by prevailing tropospheric global wind systems via the Indian Ocean and Southern Ocean (Roaring Forties West to East on the 40o S Latitude line) to Victoria, Australia. There is much precedent for such global wind transportations in the history of past Influenza virus pandemics in the last 100 years and the present observations relating to COVID-19 events in Australia are discussed in that context. © 2022 by World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd.
2021年5月至6月,在墨尔本内西区和外北郊的一个确定的弧线内,突然爆发了一场非常小的COVID-19神秘社区传播疫情。感染区可能有1000平方公里那么大。这些真正神秘病例的突然爆发既不能追溯到任何直接感染接触者,也不能与任何已知的感染聚集性(例如,在酒店隔离的受感染国际旅行者中)有直接的基因组联系。对此,维多利亚州政府根据首席医疗官和维多利亚州卫生部的建议,将整个维多利亚州置于极端的第4级紧急状态。因此,对口鼻拭子进行了大量的PCR COVID-19检测(高峰时每天30万例),并在家中隔离了所有阳性患者,这是一项由警方执行的指令,在某些情况下由澳大利亚军队执行。公民既不允许离开墨尔本,也不允许从维多利亚州前往澳大利亚的任何其他州。接触者追踪是由经验丰富的追踪者小组大规模进行的。尽管封锁了人员流动,但仍然发生了几起突然的神秘疫情。这包括限制家庭访客人数、限制人群规模、减少体育赛事、关闭学校、强制佩戴口罩,以及在商店和超市对所有个人进行个人跟踪(通过与手机相连的个人“QR”数字跟踪系统,或通过商店或商店入口处的书面个人联系声明)。许多值得关注的COVID-19变体(PANGO分类)显然是成熟的人类传代病毒粒子,其中许多已在当前和非常大规模的第二波印度流行病中被发现。我们在此表明,有似是而非的有力证据表明,这些“印度”的异质变体可能是由对流层盛行的全球风系统经由印度洋和南大洋(南纬400度线上咆哮西经向东)输送到澳大利亚维多利亚的。在过去100年流感病毒大流行的历史中,这种全球风运输有很多先例,在此背景下讨论了目前与澳大利亚COVID-19事件有关的观察结果。©2022世界科学出版有限公司。
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引用次数: 1
Sleep Disturbance and COVID-19: An Epidemic Inside the Pandemic 睡眠障碍和COVID-19:流行病内部的流行病
Pub Date : 2021-02-21 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2021211
L. Spicuzza
occurrence Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging the world affecting heavily people’s mental health. The psychological consequences of this pandemic include depressive symptoms, anxiety, worry, and loneliness due to home confinement during lockdowns. A good sleep quality is essential to face this stressing condition, nevertheless one of the first complaint reported by the population, soon after the onset of the pandemic in China, was sleep disturbance. A large amount of work has now evidenced that sleep disturbance related to the pandemic affects more than one third of the population of both sexes across all involved countries. Very young people and the elderly are particularly affected by this problem. Anxiety, depression and post-traumatic stress disorder are strictly associated with sleep disturbance. As risk of suicide has increased during the pandemic, insomnia has also been proven to be a cause of suicidal ideation. The strict confinement measures adopted by most countries to tackle the outbreak have also contribute to create a sense of disorientation among people and to change their sleep habits. Poor sleep quality reduces daytime functioning and mental resources. These effects can have dramatic consequences in the general public, but more specifically in health care workers, now facing the most stressful experience right in the center of this catastrophe. In this article we review available evidence on the impact of COVID-19 on people’s quality of sleep and on the occurrence of sleep disturbance in different subsets of the population, analyzing also risk factors determining insomnia and the consequences of this dreadful condition.
新冠肺炎大流行正在挑战全球,严重影响人们的心理健康。这次大流行的心理后果包括封锁期间因居家隔离而导致的抑郁症状、焦虑、担忧和孤独。良好的睡眠质量对于面对这种压力状况至关重要,然而,在中国大流行爆发后不久,人们报告的第一个抱怨之一是睡眠障碍。大量工作现已证明,在所有相关国家,与大流行有关的睡眠障碍影响到三分之一以上的男女人口。年轻人和老年人特别容易受到这个问题的影响。焦虑、抑郁和创伤后应激障碍与睡眠障碍密切相关。随着大流行期间自杀风险的增加,失眠也被证明是自杀念头的一个原因。大多数国家为应对疫情而采取的严格隔离措施也助长了人们的迷失感,并改变了他们的睡眠习惯。睡眠质量差会降低白天的功能和精神资源。这些影响可能对普通公众产生巨大影响,但更具体地说,对卫生保健工作者来说,他们现在正面临着这场灾难中心最紧张的经历。在这篇文章中,我们回顾了COVID-19对人们睡眠质量的影响以及不同人群中睡眠障碍发生的现有证据,并分析了决定失眠的风险因素以及这种可怕状况的后果。
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引用次数: 1
Communicable Diseases in Homo sapiens for Immunologists 面向免疫学家的智人传染病
Pub Date : 2020-09-30 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2020122
Davies Ajs
using analytic methodology, of eliciting a specific antibody response without overloading the responsive system. There has also often been only restricted means of following the physiological consequences of the activation of the large numbers of the cells which are part of the overall immunological processes including, importantly, non-specific activation of the innate system following the creation of dead dying and damaged cells as a consequence of infection.
使用分析方法,在不使应答系统超载的情况下,引起特异性抗体反应。通常也只有有限的方法来跟踪大量细胞激活的生理后果这是整个免疫过程的一部分包括,重要的是,先天系统的非特异性激活随着死亡和受损细胞的产生而死亡和受损细胞是感染的结果。
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引用次数: 0
Are the Consequences of Gastrointestinal Infections of SARS-CoV-2 Underestimated? SARS-CoV-2胃肠道感染的后果被低估了吗?
Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2020121
K. Hilpert
in the same epithelia cell the the 53% tested for SARS-CoV-2 in a the respiratory samples remained positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA for a mean of 16.7 days (SD 6.7) and faecal samples remained positive for a mean of 27.9 days (SD 10.7) after first symptom onset verified in a number of additional in and asymptomatic, mild and severe COVID-19 patients. al. from released from after recovery 10% were still for SARS-CoV-2
在同一上皮细胞中,53%的SARS-CoV-2检测结果显示,在许多其他无症状、轻度和重度COVID-19患者首次出现症状后,呼吸道样本中SARS-CoV-2 RNA平均持续16.7天(SD 6.7),粪便样本中SARS-CoV-2 RNA平均持续27.9天(SD 10.7)。回收后释放的人中仍有10%为SARS-CoV-2
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引用次数: 0
Thoughts of an Immunobiologist about Covid-19 免疫生物学家对Covid-19的看法
Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2020115
Tony Davies
instinctively, or by learning, using aspects of our five senses, to avoid potential harm and what can either be pleasant or useful. Deployment of the five senses is similar in most vertebrates. In addition to the five basic senses, concerned directly with responses to environmental changes, there are internal more arcane senses which are also interface regulatory devices, operating either to protect us from danger or beneficially to enhance our life experiences. Some of these inner senses relate to such interactions as are involved with our responses to Covid-19 which we cannot see, smell, hear, taste or sense by touch. The inner senses are complex and include what are usually called the immune responses. The immune responses are widely believed, in a variety of ways, to be protective and to involve a non-cognitive learning element, referred to by many professional immunologists as immunologic memory. As far as protection is concerned this seems sensible in what can be seen as a hostile world that, following the thinking of Charles Darwin, Tennyson wrote of as ‘Nature, red in tooth and claw’. The whole concept of ‘immune’ implies ‘not affected by’. Wikipedia gives the meaning of ‘immune’ as ‘resistant to a particular infection or toxin owing to the presence of specific antibodies or sensitized white blood cells’. This definition could be thought largely to ignore one of the basic defense mechanisms of the body the innate immune response. Abstract Attention is drawn to the existence of two very different facets of the immune processes operating consequent upon infection; Innate, a primitive mechanism which is quick acting and which plays a major part in inflammatory processes, and Adaptive, a mechanism that is slower to deliver elements specifically adapted from its recognition of the foreign invader. The cytokine storms that can be a harmful outcome of the response to infection derive initially from components of the innate immune system which, in addition to responding to foreignness, are activated by dead and/or dying cells of the infected host. It is suggested that although attack on the invading virus, by, say vaccination, seems the logical way to reduce the consequences of infection, it could be that exploration of the immunopathological effects of invasion could also help to specify means to reduce their impact. In particular it is suggested that prebiotics, orally ingested materials that can have beneficial effects on the gut micro biota, may be able beneficially to modify potentially harmful patterns of inflammation. In addition attention is drawn to the possibly exacerbating role of CRP an acute phase protein for which antagonists have been devised which could also help to reduce immunopathology.
本能地,或者通过学习,运用我们的五种感官来避免潜在的伤害,以及那些可能令人愉快或有用的东西。在大多数脊椎动物中,五种感官的分布是相似的。除了直接与对环境变化的反应有关的五种基本感觉之外,还有内部更神秘的感觉,它们也是界面调节装置,要么保护我们免受危险,要么有益地增强我们的生活体验。其中一些内在感官与我们对Covid-19的反应所涉及的相互作用有关,而这些相互作用是我们无法看到、闻到、听到、尝到或触摸到的。内在感觉是复杂的,包括通常所说的免疫反应。人们普遍认为,免疫反应以各种方式具有保护作用,并涉及一种非认知学习因素,许多专业免疫学家将其称为免疫记忆。就保护而言,在一个可以被视为敌对世界的环境中,这似乎是明智的,按照查尔斯·达尔文的思想,丁尼生写道:“大自然,红色的牙齿和爪子”。“免疫”的整个概念意味着“不受影响”。维基百科给出的“免疫”的含义是“由于存在特定抗体或致敏的白细胞而对特定感染或毒素具有抵抗力”。这个定义在很大程度上忽略了人体的一种基本防御机制——先天免疫反应。摘要注意到存在两个非常不同的方面的免疫过程操作后感染;先天的是一种快速作用的原始机制,在炎症过程中起着重要作用;适应性的是一种较慢的机制,它通过识别外来入侵者来传递特定的元素。细胞因子风暴可能是对感染反应的有害结果,最初来自先天免疫系统的成分,除了对外来物的反应外,这些成分还被感染宿主的死亡和/或垂死细胞激活。有人建议,尽管通过接种疫苗等方式攻击入侵病毒似乎是减少感染后果的合乎逻辑的方法,但对入侵的免疫病理效应的探索也可能有助于确定减少其影响的方法。特别是益生元,这种口服摄取的物质对肠道微生物群有有益的影响,可能有利于改变潜在的有害炎症模式。此外,人们还注意到CRP(一种急性期蛋白)可能加剧的作用,已经设计出拮抗剂,可以帮助减少免疫病理。
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引用次数: 1
From Crisis to a New Routine 从危机到新套路
Pub Date : 2020-05-08 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2020113
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引用次数: 0
Alveolar Macrophages in Influenza A Infection Guarding the Castle with Sleeping Dragons. 甲型流感感染中的肺泡巨噬细胞与沉睡的龙守卫城堡。
Pub Date : 2020-05-01 Epub Date: 2020-05-15 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2020114
Lindsay Somerville, Amber Cardani, Thomas J Braciale
Despite major advances in influenza vaccination and flu-prevention community awareness campaigns, Influenza A virus (IAV) remains a worldwide and recurring threat [1, 2]. Seasonal influenza causes 3-5 million cases of severe respiratory and systemic illness and upwards of 650,000 deaths annually, particularly among the elderly, very young, and chronically ill [3]. Countless hours of missed school and work have significant economic consequences [4, 5]. In pandemic years, morbidity and mortality soars, especially among the young [6, 7].
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引用次数: 4
Treatment and Management in the Corona Virus Crisis: Think outside the Box While inside the Box 冠状病毒危机的治疗和管理:在盒子里思考,跳出盒子
Pub Date : 2020-04-27 DOI: 10.31038/idt.2020112
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Infectious diseases and therapeutics
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