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What Could Possibly Go Wrong? Predictable Misallocation in Simple Debt Repayment Experiments 哪里可能出错?简单债务偿还实验中的可预测错配
Pub Date : 2020-09-05 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3710493
Florian Gärtner, Darwin Semmler, C. Bannier
How do borrowers repay their debts? In two simple debt repayment experiments, we not only elicit different types of severe deviations from optimal, i.e. debt minimizing, repayment decisions. We rather show how these deviations can be triggered using supposedly irrelevant information and find evidence for a novel heuristic, the “Cuckoo Fallacy”, which is based on the amount of new debt rather than the interest rate. We also demonstrate that simple framing can decrease repayment misallocation, nudging borrowers to more optimal behavior. Our results inform scholars and policy makers on how to improve household’s financial decisions.
借款人如何偿还债务?在两个简单的债务偿还实验中,我们不仅引出了不同类型的严重偏离最优,即债务最小化,偿还决策。我们更愿意展示这些偏差是如何使用所谓的不相关信息被触发的,并为一种新的启发式方法——“布谷鸟谬论”——找到证据,这种方法基于新债务的数量,而不是利率。我们还证明,简单的框架可以减少还款错配,促使借款人采取更优的行为。我们的研究结果为学者和政策制定者提供了如何改善家庭财务决策的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Effects of Socioeconomic Characteristics on Income and Financial Behavior Amidst the COVID-19 Pandemic in the Democratic Republic of the Congo COVID-19大流行期间刚果民主共和国社会经济特征对收入和金融行为的影响
Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3705143
Kulondwa Safari, Aganze Bisimwa
The Democratic Republic of the Congo as many other countries across the world has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The government of the country declared a state of emergency in March 2020, which restricted travels within and outside the country, schools were closed and many other public activities were suspended. The containment measures taken to limit the spread of this new virus had a negative impact on economic activities. The present study analyzes how different socioeconomic groups were affected financially by the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic in the post conflict eastern region of the DRC. A sample of 312 individuals was selected in three provinces in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Ordered logit models were applied. Findings reveal that the individuals who were mostly affected financially by the effects of COVID-19 were married, females, youth, public and private sector employees, self-employed individuals and low income earners. Their income has been reduced and they reduced their spending, savings and investments. The present study suggests that social interventions programs are needed and they should prioritize the most vulnerable socioeconomic groups.
刚果民主共和国和世界上许多其他国家一样受到COVID-19大流行的影响。该国政府于2020年3月宣布进入紧急状态,限制国内外旅行,学校关闭,许多其他公共活动暂停。为限制这种新病毒传播而采取的遏制措施对经济活动产生了负面影响。本研究分析了冲突后刚果民主共和国东部地区2019冠状病毒病大流行的不利影响对不同社会经济群体的经济影响。在刚果民主共和国东部的三个省选取了312人的样本。采用有序logit模型。调查结果显示,受2019冠状病毒病影响最大的经济群体是已婚人士、女性、青年、公共和私营部门雇员、自雇人士和低收入者。他们的收入减少了,他们减少了开支、储蓄和投资。目前的研究表明,社会干预计划是必要的,他们应该优先考虑最脆弱的社会经济群体。
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引用次数: 0
How to Talk When a Machine is Listening: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI 机器在倾听时如何说话:人工智能时代的企业信息披露
Pub Date : 2020-08-31 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683802
S. Cao, Wei Jiang, Baozhong Yang, Alan L. Zhang
Growing AI readership (proxied for by machine downloads and ownership by AI-equipped investors) motivates firms to prepare filings friendlier to machine processing and to mitigate linguistic tones that are unfavorably perceived by algorithms. Loughran and McDonald (2011) and BERT available since 2018 serve as event studies supporting attribution of the decrease in the measured negative sentiment to increased machine readership. This relationship is stronger among firms with higher benefits to (e.g., external financing needs) or lower cost (e.g., litigation risk) of sentiment management. This is the first study exploring the feedback effect on corporate disclosure in response to technology.
越来越多的人工智能读者(以机器下载和人工智能投资者的所有权为代表)促使公司准备对机器处理更友好的文件,并减轻算法所感知的不利语言语调。Loughran和McDonald(2011)以及自2018年以来可用的BERT作为事件研究,支持将测量的负面情绪减少归因于机器读者人数的增加。在情绪管理收益较高(如外部融资需求)或成本较低(如诉讼风险)的公司中,这种关系更强。本研究首次探讨科技对企业信息披露的反馈效应。
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引用次数: 50
Behavioral Finance Perspectives on Pakistan Stock Market Efficiency: A theoretical review 行为金融学视角下巴基斯坦股票市场效率研究的理论回顾
Pub Date : 2020-08-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683113
Zareen Zafar, D. Siddiqui
The study is based on historical and hypothetical syntheses in understanding the sagacity of investors, stock returns, and stock market efficiency behavior in the theoretical frame of behavioral finance patterns. This research is guided by multidisciplinary behavioral related theories. This study explored Philosophy, theories, methods argument, and difference of opinions along with finance scholars in modern and behavioral finance paradigms. The perspectives on market efficiency studies between the two paradigms are discussed here based on interconnected theoretical perspectives.
本文在行为金融学模式的理论框架下,对投资者的明智性、股票收益和股票市场效率行为进行了历史和假设的综合研究。本研究以多学科行为相关理论为指导。本研究与金融学学者探讨了现代金融学与行为金融学范式的哲学、理论、方法、争论和意见分歧。本文在相互关联的理论视角的基础上,讨论了两种范式之间的市场效率研究视角。
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引用次数: 1
Proximity Bias Leading to Psychological Barriers in Pakistani Stock Market at Index Level 指数水平上邻近偏差导致巴基斯坦股市心理障碍
Pub Date : 2020-08-29 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3683099
T. A. Siddiqui, D. Siddiqui
People seem to carry a behavioral bias in investing in the stock market. This is usually depicted in people's investment behavior that coincides with market behavior in different up and down. These can be called psychological barriers’ that are certain index levels (usually in multiples of 100) at which the market tends to stick before breaking out either up or down. This behavior is devoid of any rational explanation and has nothing to do with the market fundamentals. This paper explored whether proximity bias exists in the Pakistani stock market that could create ‘psychological barriers’ and create investors’ subjective perception of ‘something special’ about certain index levels. We carry out an empirical analysis of the KSE-100 index to investigate these up and down that relate to human psychology. We obtained daily stock price indices of these emerging markets from the beginning of 1994 to the end of 2011 consisting of 2610 time-series data points. The psychological barriers were set at multiples of one hundred, such as the 500-level, 600-level, 700-level, and onwards. For the KSE-100 indices which are at multiples of a thousand, such as 6000-level, 7000-level, 8000-level.Our results reveal that the index price did display signs of barriers in both the price level and conditional return dynamics. The barrier effects indicated in the results of this study show clear infrequencies in the price distribution and conditional return dynamics of the series over the period examined. This study does not claim to link the barriers to a particular causal effect, but the authors believe that the lack of a formal rational explanation does seem to indicate a behavioral underpinning.
人们在投资股票市场时似乎带有一种行为偏见。这通常表现在人们的投资行为与市场行为的不同涨跌相吻合。这些可以被称为心理障碍,是指市场在突破上涨或下跌之前倾向于停留的某些指数水平(通常是100的倍数)。这种行为缺乏任何理性解释,与市场基本面无关。本文探讨了巴基斯坦股市是否存在接近性偏见,这种偏见可能会产生“心理障碍”,并使投资者对某些指数水平产生“特殊”的主观看法。我们对KSE-100指数进行了实证分析,以调查这些与人类心理有关的上下波动。我们获得了这些新兴市场从1994年初到2011年底的每日股票价格指数,包含2610个时间序列数据点。心理障碍设置为100的倍数,如500级、600级、700级等。对于6000点、7000点、8000点等千倍的kospi指数。研究结果表明,指数价格在价格水平和条件回报动态上均表现出障碍迹象。本研究结果中所显示的障碍效应表明,在研究期间,该系列的价格分布和条件回报动态明显不频繁。这项研究并没有声称将障碍与特定的因果效应联系起来,但作者认为,缺乏正式的理性解释似乎确实表明了行为基础。
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引用次数: 0
The Joint Influence of Information Push and Value Relevance on Investor Judgments and Market Efficiency 信息推送和价值关联对投资者判断和市场效率的共同影响
Pub Date : 2020-08-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3399252
W. B. Elliott, Brian T. Gale, Jessen L. Hobson
We use experimental markets to examine how pushing investment information and the value relevance of that information interact to influence investors’ value estimate accuracy and market price efficiency. Developments in technology allow information to be pushed to investors anytime and anywhere. However, in addition to value-relevant information, pushed information often includes information that is irrelevant for assessing firm value. Drawing on psychology theory, we find that pushing information has divergent effects depending on the value relevance of the information. Pushing only value-relevant information increases investors’ processing of the information and leads to more accurate value estimates and market prices than when not pushed. In contrast, pushing a mix of value-relevant and value-irrelevant information reduces investors’ processing of value-relevant information, leading to less accurate value estimates and market prices than when not pushed or when only value-relevant information is pushed. A supplemental experiment provides evidence that this differential processing is primarily attributable to differences in acquisition rather than integration of the value-relevant information. Collectively, our results reveal a dark side to push technologies, particularly with the growing presence of value-irrelevant information.
我们使用实验市场来检验推动投资信息和该信息的价值相关性如何相互作用,以影响投资者的价值估计准确性和市场价格效率。技术的发展使得信息可以随时随地地传递给投资者。然而,除了与价值相关的信息外,推送的信息通常还包括与评估公司价值无关的信息。根据心理学理论,我们发现推送信息的效果取决于信息的价值相关性。只推送与价值相关的信息会增加投资者对信息的处理,并导致比不推送时更准确的价值估计和市场价格。相比之下,推动价值相关和价值无关信息的混合信息会减少投资者对价值相关信息的处理,导致价值估计和市场价格的准确性低于不推动或仅推动价值相关信息的情况。一项补充实验提供了证据,证明这种差异处理主要归因于获取价值相关信息的差异,而不是整合价值相关信息的差异。总的来说,我们的研究结果揭示了推动技术发展的阴暗面,特别是随着与价值无关的信息日益增多。
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引用次数: 1
The Impact of Star Analyst Awards on Equity Markets: A Regression Discontinuity Design 明星分析师奖励对股票市场的影响:一个回归不连续设计
Pub Date : 2020-08-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3678805
Siyu Chen, Runjing Lu
Using a regression discontinuity design, we study the causal impact of an influential star analyst award on market reaction and analysts’ post-award performance. We find that the award announcement leads to higher market reaction to stocks with preexisting recommendations from analysts who barely win the award than those from analysts who barely miss it, but the difference in market reaction fully reverses within 20 trading days. Evidence strongly suggests that attention trading and speculative trading over the anticipation of the overreaction are the main driving force while the signal of award winners’ ability plays little role. In addition, we find that analysts with award designations receive more resources from brokerages and perform better in earnings forecast than others in the year after the award announcement. Our findings highlight that investors may incorporate award information into their trading suboptimally and that award recognitions have long-lasting effects on sell-side research through resource reallocation.
本文采用非连续性回归设计,研究了有影响力的明星分析师获奖对市场反应和分析师获奖后绩效的因果影响。我们发现,对于那些几乎没有获奖的分析师所推荐的股票,在公布获奖消息后,市场反应会比那些几乎没有获奖的分析师所推荐的股票更高,但在20个交易日内,市场反应的差异会完全逆转。有证据强烈表明,关注交易和投机交易超过预期的过度反应是主要驱动力,而获奖者能力的信号作用不大。此外,我们发现,获得奖项的分析师在奖项宣布后的一年内,从券商获得的资源更多,在盈利预测方面的表现优于其他分析师。我们的研究结果强调,投资者可能会将奖励信息纳入他们的交易中,并且奖励认可通过资源再分配对卖方研究产生长期影响。
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引用次数: 0
Trust in Financial Institutions: A Survey 金融机构信任:一项调查
Pub Date : 2020-08-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3677835
Carin van der Cruijsen, J. de Haan, Ria Roerink
Trust in financial institutions is widely considered important. However, a clear overview of studies on the drivers of trust is missing. We intend to fill this gap in the literature. After discussing why trust in financial institutions is important, we turn to its measurement, where we distinguish between trust in one's own institution and trust in institutions in general (narrow-scope and broad-scope trust), and discuss how these measures differ from generalized trust (i.e. trust in other people with whom there is no direct relationship). Finally, we survey the determinants of trust in financial institutions and discuss a wide range of drivers. First, trust in financial institutions depends on the economic situation: it behaves procyclically and is negatively affected by financial crises. Second, the behavior of the financial institutions matters: prudent conduct, the provision of good services and financial health have a positive effect on trust. Third, although consumer characteristics also relate to trust, many of these relationships are context-dependent. Fourth, there is a positive association between narrow-scope trust on the one hand and broad-scope trust and generalized trust on the other. Last, policy measures and supervisory actions can help prevent loss of trust.
人们普遍认为对金融机构的信任很重要。然而,缺乏对信任驱动因素的研究的清晰概述。我们打算填补这方面的文献空白。在讨论了为什么对金融机构的信任是重要的之后,我们转向它的测量,在这里我们区分对自己机构的信任和对一般机构的信任(狭义和广义信任),并讨论这些测量与广义信任(即对与其没有直接关系的其他人的信任)有何不同。最后,我们调查了金融机构信任的决定因素,并讨论了广泛的驱动因素。首先,对金融机构的信任取决于经济形势:它具有顺周期性,并受到金融危机的负面影响。其次,金融机构的行为很重要:审慎的行为、提供良好的服务和金融健康对信任有积极的影响。第三,尽管消费者特征也与信任有关,但这些关系中的许多都依赖于上下文。第四,狭义信任与广义信任、广义信任之间存在正相关关系。最后,政策措施和监管行动有助于防止信任丧失。
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引用次数: 18
Corporate Governance Compliance and Herding 公司治理合规和羊群
Pub Date : 2020-08-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3469288
Masanori Orihara, Arman Eshraghi
We show the corporate governance reforms introduced by the Japanese government since 2014 have not succeeded in increasing aggregate firm value. These policies, of which voluntary disclosure in the form of ‘comply or explain’ is a major element, have inadvertently led to overcompliance by target firms listed in the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange as well as a range of non-target firms. This results in smaller firms, which are typically not listed on the first section of the exchange, following the compliance behaviour of larger firms listed on the first section in the same industry sector. Importantly, this pressure to follow in the steps of leading firms is to the detriment of board effectiveness and shareholder value. We document a larger reduction in the market value of young and R&D intensive firms, and firms appointing outsider directors with lower advising quality. We posit this overcompliance behaviour is, inter alia, correlated with the cultural values of ‘conformity’, ‘respect for authority’ and ‘power distance’, which permeate the Japanese corporate culture. These findings highlight the risks in adopting corporate governance policies without sufficient attention to contextual factors.
我们发现,日本政府自2014年以来引入的公司治理改革并没有成功地增加公司总价值。这些政策以“遵守或解释”的形式自愿披露是一个主要因素,无意中导致了在东京证券交易所第一部分上市的目标公司以及一系列非目标公司的过度遵守。这导致较小的公司(这些公司通常不在交易所的第一个板块上市)遵循在同一行业第一个板块上市的大公司的合规行为。重要的是,这种跟随领先公司步伐的压力不利于董事会的有效性和股东价值。我们发现,年轻公司和研发密集型公司的市场价值下降幅度更大,而聘请外部董事的公司建议质量较低。我们认为,这种过度服从行为与渗透在日本企业文化中的“顺从”、“尊重权威”和“权力距离”的文化价值观有关。这些发现突出了在没有充分重视背景因素的情况下采用公司治理政策的风险。
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引用次数: 6
Putting 2020 into Perspective: Diversification May Work Better than You Think 展望2020年:多元化可能比你想象的更有效
Pub Date : 2020-08-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3678185
Rodney N. Sullivan
Investors wish to avoid the pain of downside risk while seeking portfolio returns. The ability of a diversified portfolio, especially long-only, to provide relief during market turbulence has come under attack in recent years with many saying that diversification disappears altogether when investors need it most. The evidence here suggests the oft repeated “all correlations go to one in a crisis” is an exaggeration. Instead, diversification remains as relevant to investors today as ever before. Furthermore, achieving a globally diversified portfolio is also never before easier. Although a global diversified portfolio has not eliminated the risk of declines in portfolios in the past, it has been shown to provide both meaningful downside protection while also being an efficient portfolio; that is, in providing a sufficient return for the risk taken.
投资者希望在寻求投资组合回报的同时避免下行风险带来的痛苦。多元化投资组合(尤其是只做多的投资组合)在市场动荡期间提供缓解的能力近年来受到了攻击,许多人说,在投资者最需要多元化投资组合的时候,多元化投资组合就完全消失了。这里的证据表明,经常被重复的“在危机中所有相关性归一”是夸大其词。相反,对投资者来说,多元化与以往一样重要。此外,实现全球多元化投资组合也从未如此容易。虽然全球多元化投资组合在过去并没有消除投资组合下跌的风险,但它已被证明既能提供有意义的下行保护,同时也是一种有效的投资组合;也就是说,为所承担的风险提供足够的回报。
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引用次数: 0
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Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal
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