Gender has been shown to influence investment behavior and performance. We focus on firms who predominantly cater to one gender based on textual analysis of gender keywords in firms’ 10-Ks. We find that female (male) households significantly overweight female-focused (male-focused) firms. While we find some evidence that females outperform males in their investment performance, we find they significantly underperform in female-focused firms. Females trade significantly less than males overall, but they trade similarly to males in female-focused firms. We find weak evidence that institutional investors’ gender holdings exhibit patterns similar to individual investors. Overall, our evidence suggests that product market exposure influences investment behavior and gender is an important characteristic of such exposure.
{"title":"The Impact of Product Markets and Gender on Investment Behavior","authors":"D. Bradley, K. Lahtinen, Stephan D. Shipe","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3854117","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3854117","url":null,"abstract":"Gender has been shown to influence investment behavior and performance. We focus on firms who predominantly cater to one gender based on textual analysis of gender keywords in firms’ 10-Ks. We find that female (male) households significantly overweight female-focused (male-focused) firms. While we find some evidence that females outperform males in their investment performance, we find they significantly underperform in female-focused firms. Females trade significantly less than males overall, but they trade similarly to males in female-focused firms. We find weak evidence that institutional investors’ gender holdings exhibit patterns similar to individual investors. Overall, our evidence suggests that product market exposure influences investment behavior and gender is an important characteristic of such exposure.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"313 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-27","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82901449","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we propose an approach to describe the behavior of naive agents with quasi-hyperbolic discounting in the neoclassical growth model. To study time-inconsistent decision making of an agent who cannot commit to future actions, we introduce the notion of sliding equilibrium and dis- tinguish between pseudo-perfect foresight and perfect foresight. The agent with pseudo-perfect foresight revises both the consumption path and expec- tations about prices; the agent with perfect foresight correctly foresees prices in a sliding equilibrium and is naive only about their time inconsistency. We prove the existence of sliding equilibria for the class of isoelastic utility func- tions and show that generically consumption paths are not the same under quasi-hyperbolic and exponential discounting. Observational equivalence only holds in the well-known cases of a constant interest rate or logarithmic utility. Our results suggest that perfect foresight implies a higher long-run capital stock and consumption level than pseudo-perfect foresight.
{"title":"The Neoclassical Growth Model with Time-Inconsistent Decision Making and Perfect Foresight","authors":"K. Borissov, M. Pakhnin, R. Wendner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3730379","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3730379","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we propose an approach to describe the behavior of naive agents with quasi-hyperbolic discounting in the neoclassical growth model. To study time-inconsistent decision making of an agent who cannot commit to future actions, we introduce the notion of sliding equilibrium and dis- tinguish between pseudo-perfect foresight and perfect foresight. The agent with pseudo-perfect foresight revises both the consumption path and expec- tations about prices; the agent with perfect foresight correctly foresees prices in a sliding equilibrium and is naive only about their time inconsistency. We prove the existence of sliding equilibria for the class of isoelastic utility func- tions and show that generically consumption paths are not the same under quasi-hyperbolic and exponential discounting. Observational equivalence only holds in the well-known cases of a constant interest rate or logarithmic utility. Our results suggest that perfect foresight implies a higher long-run capital stock and consumption level than pseudo-perfect foresight.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"46 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82223613","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Megan Hunter, Colin Camerer, Wesley R. Hartmann, P. Landry, Ryan Webb, J. Lattin
This article explores when consumers avoid learning information about their credit scores and how viewing one’s credit score impacts future credit scores.
{"title":"Can Facing the Truth Improve Outcomes? Effects of Information in Consumer Finance","authors":"Megan Hunter, Colin Camerer, Wesley R. Hartmann, P. Landry, Ryan Webb, J. Lattin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3502442","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3502442","url":null,"abstract":"This article explores when consumers avoid learning information about their credit scores and how viewing one’s credit score impacts future credit scores.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"51 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81125098","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper studies how extrapolative expectations affect corporate activities and asset prices. Empirically, an increase in misperception on earnings growth, a firm-level proxy for extrapolation, is associated with an increase in investment, debt and equity issuance, and bond and stock prices in the short term, but is predictive of a decline in all activities and prices in the long term. This pattern is more pronounced among financially constrained firms. Theoretically, I build a firm dynamics model with extrapolative expectations and financial frictions, and show that the interaction between these two frictions is crucial in explaining the empirical findings. Intuitively, after a sequence of favorable shocks, agents extrapolate and become overoptimistic about future productivity. Firms invest and borrow more in the short term. A lower perceived default probability improves financing conditions, further increasing investment and borrowing. Future realizations then turn out worse than expected, subjecting real and financial activities and asset prices to predictable reversals in the long term.
{"title":"Extrapolative Expectations, Corporate Activities, and Asset Prices","authors":"Yao Deng","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3771930","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3771930","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies how extrapolative expectations affect corporate activities and asset prices. Empirically, an increase in misperception on earnings growth, a firm-level proxy for extrapolation, is associated with an increase in investment, debt and equity issuance, and bond and stock prices in the short term, but is predictive of a decline in all activities and prices in the long term. This pattern is more pronounced among financially constrained firms. Theoretically, I build a firm dynamics model with extrapolative expectations and financial frictions, and show that the interaction between these two frictions is crucial in explaining the empirical findings. Intuitively, after a sequence of favorable shocks, agents extrapolate and become overoptimistic about future productivity. Firms invest and borrow more in the short term. A lower perceived default probability improves financing conditions, further increasing investment and borrowing. Future realizations then turn out worse than expected, subjecting real and financial activities and asset prices to predictable reversals in the long term.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"13 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83692004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Persuasive communication functions not only through content but also delivery, e.g., facial expression, tone of voice, and diction. This paper examines the persuasiveness of delivery in start-up pitches. Using machine learning (ML) algorithms to process full pitch videos, we quantify persuasion in visual, vocal, and verbal dimensions. Positive (i.e., passionate, warm) pitches increase funding probability. Yet conditional on funding, high-positivity startups underperform. Women are more heavily judged on delivery when evaluating single-gender teams, but they are neglected when co-pitching with men in mixed-gender teams. Using an experiment, we show persuasion delivery works mainly through leading investors to form inaccurate beliefs.
{"title":"Persuading Investors: A Video-Based Study","authors":"Allen Hu, Song Ma","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3583898","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3583898","url":null,"abstract":"Persuasive communication functions not only through content but also delivery, e.g., facial expression, tone of voice, and diction. This paper examines the persuasiveness of delivery in start-up pitches. Using machine learning (ML) algorithms to process full pitch videos, we quantify persuasion in visual, vocal, and verbal dimensions. Positive (i.e., passionate, warm) pitches increase funding probability. Yet conditional on funding, high-positivity startups underperform. Women are more heavily judged on delivery when evaluating single-gender teams, but they are neglected when co-pitching with men in mixed-gender teams. Using an experiment, we show persuasion delivery works mainly through leading investors to form inaccurate beliefs.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"36 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87076155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Chrysovalantis Gaganis, George N. Leledakis, Fotios Pasiouras, Emmanouil G. Pyrgiotakis
Stock price synchronicity has been associated with various market outcomes like the return-sentiment relations, stock liquidity, and asset pricing models. Therefore, researchers have devoted a lot of time in revealing the underlying factors that drive stock price synchronicity. Using a sample of 49 countries over the period 1990 to 2019 we find a robust association between higher cultural secretiveness and stock price synchronicity. Our results suggest that a deep-rooted country characteristic like the culture of secrecy can diminish the information environment of stock markets. The results are robust to the use of various control variables suggested in earlier studies and alternative regression techniques, including ones that address endogeneity concerns.
{"title":"National Culture of Secrecy and Stock Price Synchronicity: Cross-Country Evidence","authors":"Chrysovalantis Gaganis, George N. Leledakis, Fotios Pasiouras, Emmanouil G. Pyrgiotakis","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3769565","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3769565","url":null,"abstract":"Stock price synchronicity has been associated with various market outcomes like the return-sentiment relations, stock liquidity, and asset pricing models. Therefore, researchers have devoted a lot of time in revealing the underlying factors that drive stock price synchronicity. Using a sample of 49 countries over the period 1990 to 2019 we find a robust association between higher cultural secretiveness and stock price synchronicity. Our results suggest that a deep-rooted country characteristic like the culture of secrecy can diminish the information environment of stock markets. The results are robust to the use of various control variables suggested in earlier studies and alternative regression techniques, including ones that address endogeneity concerns.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"2018 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86796363","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L. Su, Sonia M. L. Wong, Yuan-mei Xue, Xiaofeng Zhao
This study examines how short-sale constraints affect investors’ information acquisition and thereby shape stock price efficiency. We exploit two quasi-natural experiments that relax short-sale constraints in the US and China, respectively. We find that the removal of short-sale constraints increases investors’ information acquisition in both markets, but the effect is more prompt in China, where short selling was permitted for the first time. Investors acquire value-relevant information in both markets, primarily good news in the US and bad news in China, which helps improve short sellers’ trading profits. Lastly, information acquisition induced by the removal of short-sale constraints improves price efficiency in both markets. Our study provides direct empirical evidence that short-sale constraints affect stock prices by influencing the production of information.
{"title":"Do Short-Sale Constraints Inhibit Information Acquisition? Evidence from Two Natural Experiments","authors":"L. Su, Sonia M. L. Wong, Yuan-mei Xue, Xiaofeng Zhao","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3766616","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3766616","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines how short-sale constraints affect investors’ information acquisition and thereby shape stock price efficiency. We exploit two quasi-natural experiments that relax short-sale constraints in the US and China, respectively. We find that the removal of short-sale constraints increases investors’ information acquisition in both markets, but the effect is more prompt in China, where short selling was permitted for the first time. Investors acquire value-relevant information in both markets, primarily good news in the US and bad news in China, which helps improve short sellers’ trading profits. Lastly, information acquisition induced by the removal of short-sale constraints improves price efficiency in both markets. Our study provides direct empirical evidence that short-sale constraints affect stock prices by influencing the production of information.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"90 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84552815","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper examines the pricing of a firm's carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the "carbon risk premium" hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and exposure to known risk factors. Investigating sources of the low carbon alpha, we find the underperformance of bonds issued by carbon-intensive firms cannot be fully explained by divestment from institutional investors. Instead, our evidence is most consistent with investor underreaction to the predictability of carbon intensity for firm cash-flow news, creditworthiness, and environmental incidents.
{"title":"Is Carbon Risk Priced in the Cross-Section of Corporate Bond Returns?","authors":"Tinghua Duan, F. Li, Quan Wen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3709572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3709572","url":null,"abstract":"This paper examines the pricing of a firm's carbon risk in the corporate bond market. Contrary to the \"carbon risk premium\" hypothesis, bonds of more carbon-intensive firms earn significantly lower returns. This effect cannot be explained by a comprehensive list of bond characteristics and exposure to known risk factors. Investigating sources of the low carbon alpha, we find the underperformance of bonds issued by carbon-intensive firms cannot be fully explained by divestment from institutional investors. Instead, our evidence is most consistent with investor underreaction to the predictability of carbon intensity for firm cash-flow news, creditworthiness, and environmental incidents.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"14 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"87220338","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Emotional finance introduces the notion that financial markets may be driven by the co-existence of fully-rational and emotional investors, driven by phantasy. The analysis of emotional finance is informed with reference to a Freudian psychoanalytical framework.
In this paper, we add to the existing information cascade and herding research by developing an emotional finance model that examines the effects of phantasy investors on the decisions of rational investors under dynamic pricing. We consider a financial market for a risky asset in which traders’ emotions develop over time based on how they perform. We hypothesize that emotions affect traders’ behavior in a number of ways, through love and hate, where love results in investors buying and holding their stock regardless of the realized profit or loss.
The assumptions of the model include a constant population size of investors, and that all individuals are identical in their susceptibility to various emotional states. We also assume that the probability of becoming in love with stock is independent of an individual's history of emotional episodes and mood. We introduced an elementary agent-based asset pricing model consisting of three trader types: fundamental traders, emotional traders, and semi-emotional traders. The model comprises two features: 1) an emotional herding mechanism based on the susceptible-infected susceptible (SIS) model, and 2) wealth price herding based on wealth preferential attachment. We did this by creating sets of investors with given attributes and behaviors. Then we considered a set of investor relationships and methods of interaction: an underlying topology of connectedness defining how and with whom agents interact. Then we considered the market network where investors interact with their environment, and with other investors.
Combining analytical and simulation methods, the interaction between these elements is studied in a four-phase plane of the price movement: 1) prices resembling a bull market; 2) prices resembling a bear market; 3) U-shaped pricing trends; and 4) n shaped pricing trends. Finally, we compare our approach with a traditional information cascade/herding model incorporating phantasy investors.
We have formally demonstrated that emotions can be thought of as infectious diseases spreading across social networks. We have introduced a novel form of mathematical infectious disease model for describing the spread of emotions. We have validated this model by studying emotional propagation between different group of investors across a social network.
{"title":"When Love and Hate Collide: A Network Analysis of emotional contagion in Financial Markets","authors":"Muhamed Alsharman, Richard J. Fairchild","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3821539","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3821539","url":null,"abstract":"Emotional finance introduces the notion that financial markets may be driven by the co-existence of fully-rational and emotional investors, driven by phantasy. The analysis of emotional finance is informed with reference to a Freudian psychoanalytical framework. <br><br>In this paper, we add to the existing information cascade and herding research by developing an emotional finance model that examines the effects of phantasy investors on the decisions of rational investors under dynamic pricing. We consider a financial market for a risky asset in which traders’ emotions develop over time based on how they perform. We hypothesize that emotions affect traders’ behavior in a number of ways, through love and hate, where love results in investors buying and holding their stock regardless of the realized profit or loss.<br><br>The assumptions of the model include a constant population size of investors, and that all individuals are identical in their susceptibility to various emotional states. We also assume that the probability of becoming in love with stock is independent of an individual's history of emotional episodes and mood. We introduced an elementary agent-based asset pricing model consisting of three trader types: fundamental traders, emotional traders, and semi-emotional traders. The model comprises two features: 1) an emotional herding mechanism based on the susceptible-infected susceptible (SIS) model, and 2) wealth price herding based on wealth preferential attachment. We did this by creating sets of investors with given attributes and behaviors. Then we considered a set of investor relationships and methods of interaction: an underlying topology of connectedness defining how and with whom agents interact. Then we considered the market network where investors interact with their environment, and with other investors.<br><br>Combining analytical and simulation methods, the interaction between these elements is studied in a four-phase plane of the price movement: 1) prices resembling a bull market; 2) prices resembling a bear market; 3) U-shaped pricing trends; and 4) n shaped pricing trends. Finally, we compare our approach with a traditional information cascade/herding model incorporating phantasy investors. <br><br>We have formally demonstrated that emotions can be thought of as infectious diseases spreading across social networks. We have introduced a novel form of mathematical infectious disease model for describing the spread of emotions. We have validated this model by studying emotional propagation between different group of investors across a social network. <br>","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"37 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84634456","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A vast literature on public pensions shows that pay-as-you-go schemes may be preferable to funded schemes despite arguments of return dominance. A heavily cited reason for this is redistribution. One aspect that is rarely considered, however, is that the positive correlation between income and longevity may mitigate or even reverse redistribution. Augmenting a standard, heterogeneous-agent life cycle model with endogenous survival, we conduct a positive experiment and show that pension policy might not always be an ideal policy instrument to help the disadvantaged. In fact, we find that public pensions may sometimes redistribute funds from the disadvantaged to the middle class. This is especially true if there are threshold effects in survival and/or confounded factors in income and health. Mitigated or reversed redistribution combined with choice distortions of borrowing-constrained individuals implies that public pensions may render the lower class worse off in welfare terms.
{"title":"Pensions for Whom? Redistribution of Public Pension with an Endogenous Income-Longevity Gradient","authors":"F. B. Christensen, Frederik Læssøe Nielsen","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3877119","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3877119","url":null,"abstract":"A vast literature on public pensions shows that pay-as-you-go schemes may be preferable to funded schemes despite arguments of return dominance. A heavily cited reason for this is redistribution. One aspect that is rarely considered, however, is that the positive correlation between income and longevity may mitigate or even reverse redistribution. Augmenting a standard, heterogeneous-agent life cycle model with endogenous survival, we conduct a positive experiment and show that pension policy might not always be an ideal policy instrument to help the disadvantaged. In fact, we find that public pensions may sometimes redistribute funds from the disadvantaged to the middle class. This is especially true if there are threshold effects in survival and/or confounded factors in income and health. Mitigated or reversed redistribution combined with choice distortions of borrowing-constrained individuals implies that public pensions may render the lower class worse off in welfare terms.","PeriodicalId":8731,"journal":{"name":"Behavioral & Experimental Finance eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78762954","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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