Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123159
P. Sedgwick
Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has become the cornerstone of decision-making in clinical and healthcare research. Statistical significance (p < 0.05) is considered the gold standard for inferring that contextual significance exists. However, such practice is controversial since it was never intended for contextual significance to be inferred based on statistical significance. There have been frequent calls for the abandonment of NHST incorporating the bright-line rule of p < 0.05. The call for a statistics reform represents challenges for the teaching of statistics in the Health Sciences. NHST and p-values are central to traditional undergraduate and postgraduate curricula. It is suggested that whatever the future for NHST, it still needs to be taught. It is important that students appreciate the challenges that inferences based on NHST pose. To avoid such challenges in the future, a greater understanding of the underlying statistical principles is needed. Curricula are typically lacking in these principles, whilst they are difficult concepts based on probability and uncertainty. This may have contributed to the controversial practice of inferring contextual significance from statistical significance. A framework for the teaching of NHST and p-values is presented.
{"title":"Trials and Tribulations of Teaching Null Hypothesis Significance Testing in the Health Sciences","authors":"P. Sedgwick","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123159","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123159","url":null,"abstract":"Null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has become the cornerstone of decision-making in clinical and healthcare research. Statistical significance (p < 0.05) is considered the gold standard for inferring that contextual significance exists. However, such practice is controversial since it was never intended for contextual significance to be inferred based on statistical significance. There have been frequent calls for the abandonment of NHST incorporating the bright-line rule of p < 0.05. The call for a statistics reform represents challenges for the teaching of statistics in the Health Sciences. NHST and p-values are central to traditional undergraduate and postgraduate curricula. It is suggested that whatever the future for NHST, it still needs to be taught. It is important that students appreciate the challenges that inferences based on NHST pose. To avoid such challenges in the future, a greater understanding of the underlying statistical principles is needed. Curricula are typically lacking in these principles, whilst they are difficult concepts based on probability and uncertainty. This may have contributed to the controversial practice of inferring contextual significance from statistical significance. A framework for the teaching of NHST and p-values is presented.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"12 1","pages":"33 - 41"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86932732","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2123152
E. Molfino
Are you a recent graduate looking for your first job in the federal government? Are you still in school and interested in ways to improve your chances of getting a job after graduation? Are you looking to transition from academia or industry to the civil service? No matter what stage in your career you are in, getting a statistics job in the federal government can seem daunting. The executive board of ASA’s Government Statistics Section (GSS) has put together these tips to help you. These tips are not meant to be exhaustive, nor will they guarantee a job. But by following these tips, hopefully your job search and application process will be easier.
{"title":"Tips for Getting a Federal Statistics Job","authors":"E. Molfino","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2123152","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2123152","url":null,"abstract":"Are you a recent graduate looking for your first job in the federal government? Are you still in school and interested in ways to improve your chances of getting a job after graduation? Are you looking to transition from academia or industry to the civil service? No matter what stage in your career you are in, getting a statistics job in the federal government can seem daunting. The executive board of ASA’s Government Statistics Section (GSS) has put together these tips to help you. These tips are not meant to be exhaustive, nor will they guarantee a job. But by following these tips, hopefully your job search and application process will be easier.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"30 1","pages":"19 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83537444","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066411
Nicholas A. Lines
Readability analysis combines statistical modeling, theoretical linguistics, and psychological theory to determine the accessibility level of writing samples. This study has a long history and broad impact, yet typically uses extremely simple statistical tools (in particular linear regressions). This article briefly reviews key stages in the history of readability, and discusses present issues and potential future benefits these tools offer.
{"title":"The Past, Problems, and Potential of Readability Analysis","authors":"Nicholas A. Lines","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066411","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066411","url":null,"abstract":"Readability analysis combines statistical modeling, theoretical linguistics, and psychological theory to determine the accessibility level of writing samples. This study has a long history and broad impact, yet typically uses extremely simple statistical tools (in particular linear regressions). This article briefly reviews key stages in the history of readability, and discusses present issues and potential future benefits these tools offer.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"137 1","pages":"16 - 24"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77224618","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066422
P. Velleman, H. Wainer
{"title":"In Memoriam: Leland Wilkinson (1944–2021)","authors":"P. Velleman, H. Wainer","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066422","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066422","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"92 1","pages":"48 - 49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88987666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066419
C. Robert
This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.
本文包含格雷厄姆·厄普顿(Graham Upton)的《衡量富足(2020)》一书的书评。Barbara Blatchley的(2021)，以及Lawrence M. Leemis的第二版Learning Base R(2021)。
{"title":"Learning Base R (2nd edition)","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066419","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066419","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"11 1","pages":"46 - 47"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79646129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408
Brooks Groharing, D. McCune
In the aftermath of the 2020 US Presidential election, the argument was raised that because Joseph Biden's county vote totals in Pennsylvania do not follow Benford's law but Donald Trump's do, Democratic voter fraud occurred in Pennsylvania. We use US recent presidential election data to investigate whether this argument holds water. We use statistical tools such as chi squared goodness-of-fit tests and hypothesis tests for proportions, which are commonly used in Benford settings.
{"title":"Benford’s Law and County-Level Votes in US Presidential Elections","authors":"Brooks Groharing, D. McCune","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066408","url":null,"abstract":"In the aftermath of the 2020 US Presidential election, the argument was raised that because Joseph Biden's county vote totals in Pennsylvania do not follow Benford's law but Donald Trump's do, Democratic voter fraud occurred in Pennsylvania. We use US recent presidential election data to investigate whether this argument holds water. We use statistical tools such as chi squared goodness-of-fit tests and hypothesis tests for proportions, which are commonly used in Benford settings.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"17 1","pages":"4 - 10"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75329906","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066418
C. Robert
This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.
本文包含格雷厄姆·厄普顿(Graham Upton)的《衡量富足(2020)》一书的书评。Barbara Blatchley的(2021)，以及Lawrence M. Leemis的第二版Learning Base R(2021)。
{"title":"What Are the Chances? (Why We Believe in Luck)","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066418","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066418","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"18 1","pages":"45 - 45"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81257403","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066407
Amanda Peterson-Plunkett
{"title":"Editor’s Letter","authors":"Amanda Peterson-Plunkett","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066407","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066407","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"55 1","pages":"3 - 4"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88274108","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066415
A. Gelman
How can scientific journals satisfy an admirable desire for open-mindedness and aversion to censorship while minimizing the publication of junk science? We consider this question in the context of the Bem (2011) paper reporting extra-sensory perception among Cornell students, which received a lot of attention in part because the editors made the decision to publish the article despite extreme skepticism of its claims. We consider the reasons, good and bad, for journals to publish such papers, and then we propose an alternative way in which the journal could publish without seeming to endorse outlandish claims. Our proposal is to flip the standard scheme of scientific publication by privileging data rather than strong conclusions presented with an air of certainty. This proposal could work for the publication of "big if true" claims more generally.
{"title":"How Should Scientific Journals Handle ‘Big If True’ Submissions?","authors":"A. Gelman","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066415","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066415","url":null,"abstract":"How can scientific journals satisfy an admirable desire for open-mindedness and aversion to censorship while minimizing the publication of junk science? We consider this question in the context of the Bem (2011) paper reporting extra-sensory perception among Cornell students, which received a lot of attention in part because the editors made the decision to publish the article despite extreme skepticism of its claims. We consider the reasons, good and bad, for journals to publish such papers, and then we propose an alternative way in which the journal could publish without seeming to endorse outlandish claims. Our proposal is to flip the standard scheme of scientific publication by privileging data rather than strong conclusions presented with an air of certainty. This proposal could work for the publication of \"big if true\" claims more generally.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"197 1","pages":"41 - 43"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"79933568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-03DOI: 10.1080/09332480.2022.2066417
C. Robert
This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.
本文包含格雷厄姆·厄普顿(Graham Upton)的《衡量富足(2020)》一书的书评。Barbara Blatchley的(2021)，以及Lawrence M. Leemis的第二版Learning Base R(2021)。
{"title":"Measuring Abundance: Methods for the Estimation of Population Size and Species Richness","authors":"C. Robert","doi":"10.1080/09332480.2022.2066417","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/09332480.2022.2066417","url":null,"abstract":"This article contains book reviews of Measuring Abundance (2020) by Graham Upton, What are the chances? (2021) by Barbara Blatchley, and the second edition of Learning Base R (2021) by Lawrence M. Leemis.","PeriodicalId":88226,"journal":{"name":"Chance (New York, N.Y.)","volume":"35 1","pages":"44 - 44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76755101","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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