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Correction to: Comparison of two bundles for reducing surgical site infection in colorectal surgery: multicentre cohort study. 更正:两种治疗方案在减少结直肠手术手术部位感染的比较:多中心队列研究。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-03-05 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zrag009
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引用次数: 0
Best of upper gastrointestinal surgery in 2025. 2025年最佳上消化道手术。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-02-01 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf176
Marcel Schneider, Ville Sallinen
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引用次数: 0
Long-term outcomes of Lichtenstein and laparoscopic primary unilateral inguinal hernia repair: registry-based propensity score-matched analysis. Lichtenstein和腹腔镜原发性单侧腹股沟疝修复的长期结果:基于登记的倾向评分匹配分析。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2026-01-01 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf134
Hendrik C Albrecht, Mateusz Trawa, Lennart Zimniak, Daniela Adolf, Ferdinand Köckerling, Stephan Gretschel

Background: Laparoscopic (transabdominal preperitoneal (TAPP) and totally extraperitoneal (TEP)) and Lichtenstein procedures are the most commonly used approaches for primary unilateral inguinal hernia repair. However, only limited long-term data are available to compare the outcomes of these techniques, particularly from large cohorts. The aim of this study was to evaluate the long-term results of Lichtenstein and laparoscopic primary unilateral hernia repairs based on data from the Herniamed registry.

Methods: All patients registered in the Herniamed registry were included between 5 January 2009 and 4 October 2024. At the 5-year follow-up, a propensity score matched analysis was performed comparing Lichtenstein versus TEP, Lichtenstein versus TAPP, and TEP versus TAPP.

Results: In all, 109 130 patients with primary unilateral inguinal hernia and 5-year follow-up data were included in the study. Propensity score matching revealed 21 889, 27 439, and 29 475 matched pairs for comparisons of Lichtenstein versus TEP, Lichtenstein versus TAPP, and TEP versus TAPP, respectively. Lichtenstein repair had more general complications compared with TEP (1.2 versus 0.9%; P = 0.002), postoperative complications (3.4 versus 1.7%; P < 0.001), complication-related reoperations (1.0 versus 0.5%; P < 0.001), pain on exertion (6.7 versus 4.2%; P < 0.001), pain at rest (3.2 versus 2.3%; P < 0.001), pain requiring treatment (1.8 versus 1.3%; P < 0.001), and seroma (1.2 versus 0.9%; P < 0.001); discordant cases in matched-pair analyses. However, intraoperative complications were lower for Lichtenstein compared with TEP procedure (0.8% versus 1.0%; P = 0.038). Lichtenstein repair had more general complications compared with TAPP (1.2 versus 0.9%; P = 0.002), postoperative complications (3.5 versus 1.9%; P < 0.001), complication-related reoperations (1.0 versus 0.5%; P < 0.001), pain on exertion (6.3 versus 4.1%; P < 0.001), pain at rest (3.1 versus 2.2%; P < 0.001), and pain requiring treatment (1.8 versus 1.3%; P < 0.001).

Conclusion: In the evaluation of long-term results, laparoscopic techniques have advantages over the Lichtenstein procedure in primary unilateral inguinal hernia repair with regard to postoperative complications and chronic pain.

背景:腹腔镜(经腹腹膜前(TAPP)和完全腹膜外(TEP))和Lichtenstein手术是原发性单侧腹股沟疝修复最常用的方法。然而,只有有限的长期数据可用于比较这些技术的结果,特别是来自大型队列的数据。本研究的目的是评估Lichtenstein和腹腔镜原发性单侧疝修复的长期结果,基于Herniamed登记的数据。方法:2009年1月5日至2024年10月4日期间在Herniamed登记处登记的所有患者。在5年随访中,对Lichtenstein与TEP、Lichtenstein与TAPP、TEP与TAPP进行倾向评分匹配分析。结果:共纳入109 130例原发性单侧腹股沟疝患者及5年随访资料。Lichtenstein与TEP、Lichtenstein与TAPP、TEP与TAPP的倾向评分匹配结果分别为21 889、27 439、29 475对。与TEP相比,利希滕斯坦修复术有更多的一般并发症(1.2比0.9%,P = 0.002)、术后并发症(3.4比1.7%,P < 0.001)、并发症相关的再手术(1.0比0.5%,P < 0.001)、用力时疼痛(6.7比4.2%,P < 0.001)、休息时疼痛(3.2比2.3%,P < 0.001)、需要治疗的疼痛(1.8比1.3%,P < 0.001)和血肿(1.2比0.9%,P < 0.001);配对分析中的不一致案例。然而,与TEP相比,Lichtenstein术中并发症较低(0.8% vs 1.0%; P = 0.038)。与TAPP相比,利希滕斯坦修复术有更多的一般并发症(1.2比0.9%,P = 0.002)、术后并发症(3.5比1.9%,P < 0.001)、并发症相关的再手术(1.0比0.5%,P < 0.001)、用力疼痛(6.3比4.1%,P < 0.001)、休息疼痛(3.1比2.2%,P < 0.001)和需要治疗的疼痛(1.8比1.3%,P < 0.001)。结论:在长期疗效评价中,腹腔镜技术在单侧腹股沟疝修补术中,在术后并发症和慢性疼痛方面优于Lichtenstein手术。
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引用次数: 0
BJS Open 2025 best HPB surgery articles: editors' choices. BJS Open 2025最佳HPB手术文章:编辑选择。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf184
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引用次数: 0
Prophylactic Incisional Negative Pressure wound therapy (NPWT) for major Amputations (PINTA): protocol for randomized controlled trial of single-use NPWT devices for closed-incision major lower extremity amputations. 预防性切口负压创伤治疗(NPWT)用于大截肢(PINTA):一次性使用NPWT装置用于闭切口下肢大截肢的随机对照试验方案。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf159
Megan Power Foley, Ciara Fahey, Anne-Marie Byrne, Roisín Leahy, Laura Dempsey, Daniel Westby, Stewart R Walsh

Background: Major lower extremity amputations are frequently performed for end-stage peripheral arterial disease and progressive diabetic foot complications. Wound complications after amputation affect up to one-third of limbs. The patient cohort undergoing amputation are typically high risk for poor wound healing, often with unmodifiable risk factors in an urgent clinical setting. Incisional negative pressure wound therapy (NPWT) has been shown to reduce wound complications in other high-risk populations. This randomized controlled trial investigates whether prophylactic NPWT reduces wound complications in patients after major amputation compared with standard dry dressings.

Methods: This protocol describes a prospective, multicentre, randomized controlled trial with an internal pilot recruiting patients undergoing major lower extremity amputation for any indication. Limbs will be randomized to receive either a single-use NPWT device on their closed surgical incision or a dry dressing. The primary clinical outcome is the rate of wound complications. Secondary outcomes include reoperation rates, length of hospital stay, cost-effectiveness of NPWT, and patient-reported quality of life. Follow-up will continue to 6 months after surgery. The initial pilot phase has a recruitment target of 96 limbs, whereas an estimated 728 patients will be required to power a definitive trial adequately.

Discussion: This trial aims to supplement the existing poor-quality data on this important aspect of care and equip healthcare professionals to make cost-effective decisions regarding postoperative wound management.

背景:下肢大截肢是终末期外周动脉疾病和进行性糖尿病足并发症的常见手术。截肢后的伤口并发症影响了多达三分之一的肢体。接受截肢的患者群体通常具有伤口愈合不良的高风险,在紧急临床环境中往往具有不可改变的危险因素。切口负压伤口治疗(NPWT)已被证明可以减少其他高危人群的伤口并发症。这项随机对照试验调查了与标准干敷料相比,预防性NPWT是否能减少主要截肢患者的伤口并发症。方法:本方案描述了一项前瞻性、多中心、随机对照试验,招募了一名内部飞行员,招募了任何适应症的下肢截肢患者。肢体将被随机分配,在其闭合的手术切口上使用一次性NPWT装置或使用干敷料。主要的临床结果是伤口并发症的发生率。次要结局包括再手术率、住院时间、NPWT的成本效益和患者报告的生活质量。术后随访6个月。最初的试验阶段的招募目标是96个肢体,而估计需要728名患者才能充分支持最终的试验。讨论:本试验旨在补充现有关于这一重要护理方面的低质量数据,并使医疗保健专业人员能够在术后伤口管理方面做出具有成本效益的决策。
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引用次数: 0
Comparative effectiveness of preoperative localization techniques for non-palpable breast lesions: multicentre real-world study. 术前定位技术对不可触及乳腺病变的比较有效性:多中心真实世界研究。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf153
Fabio Corsi, Sara Albasini, Matilde Pelizzola, Carlo Morasso, Giulia Armatura, Alessandro Asaro, Corrado Chiappa, Virginia Coli, Francesca Combi, Angelica Della Valle, Raimondo Di Giacomo, Secondo Folli, Maria Luisa Gasparri, Massimo Maria Grassi, Stefano Mancini, Ilaria Maugeri, Marica Melina, Andrea Papadia, Lorenzo Rossi, Laura Roveda, Francesca Rovera, Silvia Segattini, Adele Sgarella, Claudio Siani, Norma Stefenelli, Francesco Valenti, Simone Zanotti

Background: The increasing detection of non-palpable breast lesions has made accurate preoperative localization essential to optimize breast-conserving surgery. Although multiple localization methods exist, there is still a lack of robust, large-scale, multicentre evaluations comparing different techniques.

Methods: The LOCALIZATION01 study compares real-world data from 13 breast units in Italy and Switzerland on the impact of localization techniques on breast-conserving surgery for non-palpable lesions between 2016 and 2024. Four localization techniques were compared: wire-guided (WGL), radio-guided (ROLL), magnetic seed (MSL), and carbon (CL). The main outcomes were margin status, calculated resection ratio, postoperative complications, and surgical time. Subgroup analyses were performed for body mass index, lesion morphology and histopathology.

Results: In total, 3241 patients were enrolled (ROLL 985, MSL 592, WGL 1079, and CL 585). ROLL achieved the highest rate of negative surgical margins, significantly outperforming MSL, WGL, and CL (97.5% versus 94.7% versus 94.5% versus 90.6%, respectively; P < 0.05). CL was associated with the highest postoperative complications rate (16.7%) versus ROLL (4.1%), MSL (4.5%), and WGL (2.1%) (P < 0.0001). The surgical time for MSL was significantly shorter when compared with WGL (46 versus 70 minutes (min); P < 0.0001) and CL (55 min; P < 0.0001). WGL had the most favourable calculated resection ratio (2.4), followed by MSL (2.6), ROLL (2.7), and CL (3.0). Multivariable analysis identified CL as an independent predictor of positive margins (odds ratio 1.82; P = 0.004), whereas ROLL was protective (odds ratio 0.45; P = 0.009).

Conclusion: ROLL and MSL outperformed WGL and CL across multiple endpoints. CL data revealed objective limitations that suggest caution in its use. A personalized approach considering lesion morphology, body mass index, and logistics is recommended.

背景:越来越多的乳腺不可触及病变的发现使得准确的术前定位对于优化保乳手术至关重要。虽然存在多种定位方法,但仍然缺乏比较不同技术的可靠、大规模、多中心评估。方法:LOCALIZATION01研究比较了2016年至2024年意大利和瑞士13个乳腺单位的真实数据,分析了定位技术对保乳手术中不可触及病变的影响。比较了四种定位技术:线导引(WGL)、无线电导引(ROLL)、磁种子(MSL)和碳(CL)。主要结果为切缘状态、计算切除率、术后并发症和手术时间。对体重指数、病变形态和组织病理学进行亚组分析。结果:共有3241名患者入组(ROLL 985, MSL 592, WGL 1079和CL 585)。ROLL的手术切缘阴性率最高,显著优于MSL、WGL和CL(分别为97.5%比94.7%、94.5%比90.6%,P < 0.05)。CL与ROLL(4.1%)、MSL(4.5%)和WGL(2.1%)相比,术后并发症发生率最高(16.7%)(P < 0.0001)。与WGL相比,MSL的手术时间明显缩短(46分钟vs 70分钟);P < 0.0001)和CL (55 min; P < 0.0001)。WGL具有最有利的计算切除比(2.4),其次是MSL (2.6), ROLL(2.7)和CL(3.0)。多变量分析发现CL是阳性边缘的独立预测因子(优势比1.82,P = 0.004),而ROLL具有保护作用(优势比0.45,P = 0.009)。结论:ROLL和MSL在多个终点上优于WGL和CL。CL数据显示客观局限性,建议谨慎使用。建议考虑病变形态、身体质量指数和物流的个性化方法。
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引用次数: 0
Limited prognostic value of revised tumour deposit definition in tumour node metastasis (TNM)8 in colorectal cancer: national cohort study. 修订肿瘤沉积定义在结直肠癌肿瘤淋巴结转移(TNM)8中的有限预后价值:国家队列研究。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf148
Frida Stoltz, Simon Lundström, Pamela Buchwald

Background: Tumour deposits are an important prognostic factor in colorectal cancer. In tumour node metastasis (TNM)8, the definition became stricter as TNM7's previous requirement for absence of lymphatic tissue was expanded to also include nerve and vascular tissue. TNM8 has been criticised for its limited prognostic value. This study aimed to compare prognostic differences for patients with colorectal cancer with tumour deposits staged with TNM7 and TNM8.

Methods: This national retrospective cohort study included patients with colorectal cancer who underwent surgical resection in 2011-2014 and 2017-2019. Exclusion criteria were metastatic stage IV disease, non-radical or non-curative surgery, unstated tumour deposit status, or early (≤ 30 days) mortality. Univariable, multivariable, and interaction term Cox regression analyses examined differences in overall survival and distant metastasis between TNM7 and TNM8 stagings. Multivariable models were adjusted for age, gender, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, number of positive lymph nodes, TNM stage, neoadjuvant, and adjuvant treatment.

Results: Of 19 413 patients operated on during 2011-2014 and 15 027 during 2017-2019, 23 966 were included. The TNM7 cohort had 1225 (9.5%) patients with tumour deposits, and the TNM8 cohort had 1407 (12.7%). There was an improved 5-year distant metastasis-free survival for patients with tumour deposits (hazard ratio 2.35 (95% confidence interval 2.14 to 2.58)) in the TNM8 cohort, but no benefit in overall survival, compared with patients in the TNM7 cohort. Interaction analysis revealed no prognostic difference associated with tumour deposit status between the two TNM editions.

Conclusion: Despite increased complexity, the revised definition of tumour deposits in TNM8 did not enhance prognostic ability compared with TNM7.

背景:肿瘤沉积是结直肠癌的重要预后因素。在肿瘤淋巴结转移(TNM)8中,随着TNM7先前对淋巴组织缺失的要求扩大到包括神经和血管组织,定义变得更加严格。TNM8因其有限的预测价值而受到批评。本研究旨在比较肿瘤沉积分期为TNM7和TNM8的结直肠癌患者的预后差异。方法:这项全国回顾性队列研究纳入了2011-2014年和2017-2019年接受手术切除的结直肠癌患者。排除标准为转移性IV期疾病、非根治性或非根治性手术、未明确的肿瘤沉积状态或早期(≤30天)死亡。单变量、多变量和相互作用项Cox回归分析检验了TNM7和TNM8分期的总生存期和远处转移的差异。多变量模型根据年龄、性别、美国麻醉医师学会评分、阳性淋巴结数、TNM分期、新辅助和辅助治疗进行调整。结果:2011-2014年手术19 413例,2017-2019年手术15 027例,共纳入23 966例。TNM7队列中有1225例(9.5%)患者存在肿瘤沉积,TNM8队列中有1407例(12.7%)。与TNM7组相比,TNM8组肿瘤沉积患者的5年无远处转移生存率(风险比2.35(95%可信区间2.14至2.58))有所改善,但总生存率没有改善。相互作用分析显示,两种TNM版本之间的肿瘤沉积状态没有预后差异。结论:尽管TNM8中肿瘤沉积物的修订定义增加了复杂性,但与TNM7相比,TNM8中肿瘤沉积物的修订定义并未提高预后能力。
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引用次数: 0
Effect of preoperative prehabilitation on the 6-minute walk distance and postoperative outcomes in adult patients: meta-analysis. 术前预适应对成人患者6分钟步行距离和术后结局的影响:meta分析。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf162
Pablo Díaz-Vidal, Cristina Gil-Casado, Uxía Fernández-Vázquez, Eva Diz-Ferreira, Pedro Luna-Rojas, José Carlos Diz

Background: Low cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) has been demonstrated to be associated with increased perioperative morbidity and mortality. However, evidence regarding the effect of prehabilitation on CRF and postoperative outcomes remains inconclusive.

Methods: A systematic review and meta-analysis were conducted in accordance with the PRISMA statement encompassing randomized clinical trials (RCTs) published in PubMed and Web of Science up to June 2025 on the effects of prehabilitation with exercise, measured using the 6-minute walk test, for adult patients undergoing surgery. The primary objective was to examine the effect of prehabilitation based on physical exercise on the preoperative physical condition of adults scheduled to undergo elective surgery, measured as the change in the 6-minute walk distance (6MWD). Factors associated with changes in the 6MWD and the effect of prehabilitation on postoperative CRF were analysed, as were the length of hospital stay and mortality. Effect sizes and their 95% confidence interval (c.i.) were estimated with a random-effects model.

Results: Of 107 RCTs screened, 21 were included in the analysis, comprising 1649 patients (828 undergoing prehabilitation) across several specialities, the most prevalent being cardiac (501 patients), colorectal (423 patients), and thoracic surgery (364 patients). The prehabilitation group exhibited a greater improvement in the 6MWD before surgery (mean difference (MD) 29 m; 95% c.i. 14 to 42 m; P < 0.001; I2 = 84%) and in the first month after surgery (MD 22 m; 95% c.i. 0 to 43 m; P = 0.05; I2 = 92%). A greater proportion of patients in the prehabilitation group had a clinically significant improvement in the 6MWD both before (odds ratio (OR) 2.66; 95% c.i. 1.76 to 4.0; P < 0.001; I2 = 53%) and after (OR 2.59; 95% c.i. 1.05 to 6.35; P = 0.04; I2 = 69%) surgery. There were no differences between the groups in length of hospital stay (MD -0.24; 95% c.i. -0.65 to 0.17; P = 0.25; I2 = 25%) or mortality (OR 0.71; 95% c.i. 0.26 to 1.92; P = 0.5; I2 = 0%).

Conclusion: Prehabilitation involving physical exercise before surgery was associated with an improvement in preoperative CRF. However, no differences were observed between the groups in length of hospital stay or postoperative mortality. The improvement in CRF persists in the postoperative period, suggesting a potential benefit for patient recovery.

背景:低心肺适能(CRF)已被证明与围手术期发病率和死亡率增加有关。然而,关于康复对CRF和术后结果的影响的证据仍然没有定论。方法:根据PRISMA声明进行系统回顾和荟萃分析,其中包括截至2025年6月发表在PubMed和Web of Science上的随机临床试验(rct),使用6分钟步行测试对接受手术的成年患者进行锻炼预适应的影响。主要目的是检查基于体育锻炼的康复对计划接受择期手术的成年人术前身体状况的影响,以6分钟步行距离(6MWD)的变化来衡量。分析了与6MWD变化和康复对术后CRF的影响相关的因素,以及住院时间和死亡率。效应量及其95%置信区间(ci)用随机效应模型估计。结果:在筛选的107项随机对照试验中,21项纳入分析,包括1649例患者(828例接受康复治疗),涉及多个专业,最常见的是心脏(501例)、结肠直肠(423例)和胸外科(364例)。预康复组术前6MWD有较大改善(平均差值(MD) 29 m;95% c.i. 14至42米;P < 0.001;I2 = 84%)和术后第一个月(MD 22 m; 95% ci 0 ~ 43 m; P = 0.05; I2 = 92%)。康复组中有更大比例的患者在康复前的6MWD均有临床显著改善(优势比(OR) 2.66;95% ci 1.76 - 4.0;P < 0.001;I2 = 53%)和手术后(OR 2.59; 95% ci 1.05 ~ 6.35; P = 0.04; I2 = 69%)。两组间住院时间(MD = 0.24; 95% ci = 0.65 ~ 0.17; P = 0.25; I2 = 25%)或死亡率(or = 0.71; 95% ci = 0.26 ~ 1.92; P = 0.5; I2 = 0%)均无差异。结论:术前包括体育锻炼的康复训练与术前CRF的改善相关。然而,两组在住院时间和术后死亡率方面没有观察到差异。CRF的改善持续到术后,表明对患者的恢复有潜在的好处。
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引用次数: 0
BJS Open 2025 best colorectal surgery articles: editors' choices. BJS Open 2025最佳结直肠外科文章:编辑之选。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf181
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引用次数: 0
On-scene machine learning prediction model for massive transfusion in trauma and its association with in-hospital mortality. 创伤中大量输血的现场机器学习预测模型及其与住院死亡率的关系。
IF 4.5 3区 医学 Q1 SURGERY Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1093/bjsopen/zraf167
Byungchul Yu, Jaehyeong Cho, Hyunjee Kim, Seung Ha Hwang, Jiyoung Hwang, Soeun Kim, Jiyeon Oh, Sooji Lee, Do Wan Kim, Junepill Seok, Kyounghwan Kim, Jinseok Lee, Dong Keon Yon, Wu Seong Kang

Background: Early triage for massive transfusion (MT) is essential in trauma care but most existing scoring systems rely on in-hospital data. To address this limitation, a machine learning model using only prehospital variables to predict MT and stratify mortality risk was developed and externally validated.

Methods: Data from the Korean Trauma Data Bank from 19 trauma centres (2017-22) was used for model development and internal validation, with 2023 data for patients from four additional centres used for external validation. Trauma cases were identified using S or T codes from the Korean Classification of Diseases, 7th edition. MT was defined as ≥ 5 units packed red blood cells within 4 hours or ≥ 10 units within 24 hours. Machine learning models were trained using 21 prehospital variables, with a final ensemble model constructed from the top-performing algorithms. Model interpretability was assessed using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and the association between predicted probability tertiles (T1-T3) and in-hospital mortality was evaluated using logistic regression.

Results: In all, 227 567 patients were included in the development cohort and internal validation cohort, with 8867 patients in the external validation cohort. The soft-voting ensemble model, combining random forest and AdaBoost, showed high predictive performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.837 (internal validation) and 0.837 (external validation). SHAP analysis identified accident type as the most influential predictor, followed by consciousness level, and circulatory assistance. Higher model probability was associated with increased in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) 2.34 (2.16 to 2.55), 2.70 (2.49 to 2.92), and 3.53 (3.25 to 3.83) for T1, T2, and T3, respectively).

Conclusion: A prehospital ensemble learning model to predict MT was developed and validated, and its predictions were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. However, this study is limited by the inclusion of a single ethnicity, and future research needs to integrate data from multiple populations to enhance generalizability.

背景:大量输血(MT)的早期分诊在创伤护理中至关重要,但大多数现有的评分系统依赖于医院内的数据。为了解决这一局限性,我们开发了一个仅使用院前变量来预测MT和分层死亡风险的机器学习模型,并进行了外部验证。方法:来自韩国创伤数据库的19个创伤中心(2017-22年)的数据用于模型开发和内部验证,另外4个中心的2023例患者数据用于外部验证。使用韩国疾病分类第7版中的S或T代码识别创伤病例。MT定义为4小时内≥5个单位或24小时内≥10个单位的红细胞。使用21个院前变量训练机器学习模型,并使用性能最好的算法构建最终的集成模型。采用Shapley加性解释(SHAP)评估模型可解释性,采用logistic回归评估预测概率三位数(T1-T3)与住院死亡率之间的关系。结果:共有227567例患者被纳入开发队列和内部验证队列,8867例患者被纳入外部验证队列。结合随机森林和AdaBoost的软投票集成模型具有较高的预测性能,其接收者工作特征曲线下面积分别为0.837(内部验证)和0.837(外部验证)。SHAP分析发现事故类型是影响最大的预测因素,其次是意识水平和循环辅助。较高的模型概率与住院死亡率增加相关(T1、T2和T3的校正比值比(95%置信区间)分别为2.34(2.16 ~ 2.55)、2.70(2.49 ~ 2.92)和3.53(3.25 ~ 3.83))。结论:建立并验证了院前集成学习模型预测MT,其预测结果与院内死亡率显著相关。然而,这项研究受到单一种族的限制,未来的研究需要整合来自多个人群的数据,以提高普遍性。
{"title":"On-scene machine learning prediction model for massive transfusion in trauma and its association with in-hospital mortality.","authors":"Byungchul Yu, Jaehyeong Cho, Hyunjee Kim, Seung Ha Hwang, Jiyoung Hwang, Soeun Kim, Jiyeon Oh, Sooji Lee, Do Wan Kim, Junepill Seok, Kyounghwan Kim, Jinseok Lee, Dong Keon Yon, Wu Seong Kang","doi":"10.1093/bjsopen/zraf167","DOIUrl":"10.1093/bjsopen/zraf167","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Early triage for massive transfusion (MT) is essential in trauma care but most existing scoring systems rely on in-hospital data. To address this limitation, a machine learning model using only prehospital variables to predict MT and stratify mortality risk was developed and externally validated.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data from the Korean Trauma Data Bank from 19 trauma centres (2017-22) was used for model development and internal validation, with 2023 data for patients from four additional centres used for external validation. Trauma cases were identified using S or T codes from the Korean Classification of Diseases, 7th edition. MT was defined as ≥ 5 units packed red blood cells within 4 hours or ≥ 10 units within 24 hours. Machine learning models were trained using 21 prehospital variables, with a final ensemble model constructed from the top-performing algorithms. Model interpretability was assessed using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP), and the association between predicted probability tertiles (T1-T3) and in-hospital mortality was evaluated using logistic regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>In all, 227 567 patients were included in the development cohort and internal validation cohort, with 8867 patients in the external validation cohort. The soft-voting ensemble model, combining random forest and AdaBoost, showed high predictive performance, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.837 (internal validation) and 0.837 (external validation). SHAP analysis identified accident type as the most influential predictor, followed by consciousness level, and circulatory assistance. Higher model probability was associated with increased in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) 2.34 (2.16 to 2.55), 2.70 (2.49 to 2.92), and 3.53 (3.25 to 3.83) for T1, T2, and T3, respectively).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>A prehospital ensemble learning model to predict MT was developed and validated, and its predictions were significantly associated with in-hospital mortality. However, this study is limited by the inclusion of a single ethnicity, and future research needs to integrate data from multiple populations to enhance generalizability.</p>","PeriodicalId":9028,"journal":{"name":"BJS Open","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.5,"publicationDate":"2025-12-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12914466/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"146218525","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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