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Evidence-based opportunities to address pandemic drivers via the Pandemic Agreement: lessons from the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. 通过《大流行病协定》解决大流行病驱动因素的循证机会:《烟草控制框架公约》的经验教训。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-21 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021304
Hope Ferdowsian, Sam Halabi
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引用次数: 0
Ensuring equitable engagement in global health education: Rwandan perspectives and observations about learner exchange with high-income countries. 确保公平参与全球健康教育:卢旺达对与高收入国家进行学习者交流的看法和观察。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-018985
Sirey Zhang, Micaela Dickinson, Christian Umuhoza, Florence Masaisa, Emmanual Rusingiza, Emmanuel Munyaneza, Lisa V Adams

Introduction: Global health originated from colonial and tropical medicine, which served the interests of colonial powers. Despite efforts to address this legacy, the field still faces challenges in unequal partnerships between high-income (HICs) and low-income and middle-income (LMICs) countries. Activists push for paradigm shifts emphasising health equity, decolonisation and partnerships based on solidarity and justice. The Geisel School of Medicine at Dartmouth aligns with these movements, focusing its global health programmes on equity.

Methods: This study, employing ethnographic methods to centre the perspectives of learners at one of its partner institutions, the University Teaching Hospital of Kigali, identified key themes to enhance equity in global health medical education.

Results: These themes yielded concrete actions at the student, curricular and institutional levels that should be undertaken to promote equity and justice in academic global health partnerships.

Conclusion: The findings offer a tailored framework for fostering equitable and justice-oriented practices in future exchanges with potential applications to academic global health exchanges between HICs and LMICs more broadly.

导读:全球健康起源于殖民和热带医学,为殖民列强的利益服务。尽管努力解决这一遗留问题,但该领域仍然面临高收入国家(HICs)与低收入和中等收入国家(LMICs)之间不平等伙伴关系的挑战。活动人士推动范式转变,强调卫生公平、非殖民化和基于团结和正义的伙伴关系。达特茅斯大学盖泽尔医学院(Geisel School of Medicine)与这些运动保持一致,将其全球卫生项目的重点放在公平上。方法:本研究采用民族志方法,将其合作机构之一基加利大学教学医院的学习者的观点集中起来,确定了提高全球卫生医学教育公平性的关键主题。结果:这些主题产生了应在学生、课程和机构各级采取的具体行动,以促进全球学术卫生伙伴关系中的公平和正义。结论:研究结果为在未来的交流中促进公平和公正的做法提供了一个量身定制的框架,并有可能更广泛地应用于高收入国家和中低收入国家之间的全球卫生学术交流。
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引用次数: 0
Eight-year tuberculosis epidemic trends in the Republic of Congo, a high TB burden country: progress and gaps towards end-TB targets. 结核病高负担国家刚果共和国的8年结核病流行趋势:实现结核病终结目标的进展和差距
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-019877
Freisnel Hermeland Mouzinga, Darrel Ornelle Elion Assiana, Mita Naomie Merveille Dello, Breli Bonheur Ngouama, Franck Hardain Okemba Okombi, Baurel Arnaud Akiera, Martin P Grobusch, Alain Maxime Mouanga, Viny Andzi Elenga, Etienne Nguimbi, Francine Ntoumi

Background: Evaluating progress towards WHO End Tuberculosis Strategy goals is crucial for high burden countries like the Republic of Congo. This study analysed trends in tuberculosis (TB) incidence, treatment, care quality and operational research activities from 2016 to 2023 to assess the country's control efforts.

Methods: An 8-year retrospective study of TB incidence/mortality trends was performed using a Joint Point Analysis V.5.2.0. We extracted annual national and WHO TB programme data for the period under review.

Results: From 2016 to 2023, the TB incidence rate decreased by 2.6% (annual percentage change (APC)=-0.33, 95% CI- 0.5 to -0.005; p<0.05). The proportion of bacteriologically confirmed cases significantly increased (APC=4.2, 95% CI 0.9 to 7.7; p<0.001), while treatment coverage rose by 22% (APC=2.81, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.5; p<0.05). The proportion of notified patients with TB tested for HIV significantly increased (APC=25, 95% CI 2.6 to 52.63; p<0.05), but the rate of patients with TB testing HIV positive decreased significantly (APC=-13.9, 95% CI -23.9 to -2.6; p<0.05). The proportion of unsuccessful treatment outcomes showed a non-significant decline, with an APC of 4.90% (95% CI -11.7% to 2.3%; p=0.1), while TB-related deaths increased non-significantly, with an APC of 3.76% (95% CI -1.3% to 9.2%; p=0.12). Patients with TB/HIV on ART increased by 51% (APC=6.4, 95% CI -23.9 to -2.6; p<0.05). No operational research activity has been carried out throughout the review period.

Conclusion: The observed progress was insufficient, as the Republic of Congo failed to meet the 20% TB incidence reduction target for 2020 and is unlikely to achieve the 50% reduction goal for 2025. More investment in case detection, diagnosis, treatment quality and the implementation of operational research activities is needed to achieve global goals.

背景:评估实现世卫组织终止结核病战略目标的进展对刚果共和国等高负担国家至关重要。本研究分析了2016年至2023年结核病发病率、治疗、护理质量和业务研究活动的趋势,以评估该国的控制工作。方法:采用Joint Point Analysis V.5.2.0对结核发病率/死亡率趋势进行8年回顾性研究。我们提取了本报告所述期间的年度国家和世卫组织结核病规划数据。结果:2016 - 2023年,结核病发病率下降2.6%(年变化百分比(APC)=-0.33, 95% CI- 0.5 ~ -0.005;结论:观察到的进展是不够的,因为刚果共和国未能实现到2020年将结核病发病率降低20%的目标,也不太可能实现到2025年将结核病发病率降低50%的目标。为实现全球目标,需要对病例发现、诊断、治疗质量和业务研究活动的实施进行更多投资。
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引用次数: 0
Sociodemographic trends associated with caesarean delivery in rural subdistricts of Bangladesh: a cohort study, 2005-2019. 孟加拉国农村街道剖宫产相关的社会人口趋势:2005-2019年队列研究
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018600
Anisur Rahman, Kimberly Clair, Monjur Rahman, U Tin Nu, Shaki Aktar, Bidhan Krishna Sarker, Fatema Khatun, Jesmin Pervin, Abdur Razzaque, Randall Kuhn

Introduction: Although an appropriate population range for caesarean section (CS) has been debated, the WHO recommends national CS rates be between 10% and 15%. Yet rates are much higher in many low-income and middle-income countries, including Bangladesh. These studies also reveal wide disparities in CS use by geographic location and sociodemographic conditions. Nevertheless, few studies have the sample size and temporal precision necessary to model convergence and divergence trends over time. We assessed trends in CS segregated by key sociodemographic factors known to affect CS.

Methods: We conducted our study using prospective pregnancy observation data from two distinct Maternal, Neonatal, and Child Health service areas: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b) and the government service areas in Matlab, Bangladesh. We evaluated sociodemographic variations and trends using the multivariable logistic regression model.

Findings: The proportion of CS rose from 5.9% in 2005 to 55.7% in 2019, about a ninefold increase, implying a 3.3% average annual growth rate. The CS was positively associated with residence in the icddr,b service area (vs government service area), older age, higher assets, lower parity births and, to a lesser extent, with higher levels of schooling. Among factors positively associated with CS, we observed negative time interactions for maternal age, education and place of delivery, suggesting a convergence in CS rates between high-risk and low-risk groups in these categories. However, positive time interactions for parity and asset score indicate that disparities in CS rates persist and are widening over time.

Conclusions: Transition towards near-universal CS, irrespective of sociodemographic status or service area, is likely to be the inevitable future for rural Bangladesh. If such high rates of CS are considered sub-optimal for mother-and-child health, then evidence is needed to support alternatives.

导言:尽管对剖宫产的适当人群范围存在争议,但世卫组织建议全国剖宫产率在10%至15%之间。然而,在包括孟加拉国在内的许多低收入和中等收入国家,这一比例要高得多。这些研究还揭示了地理位置和社会人口条件在CS使用方面的广泛差异。然而,很少有研究具有必要的样本量和时间精度来模拟随时间的收敛和发散趋势。我们根据已知影响CS的关键社会人口因素评估了CS的趋势。方法:我们使用来自两个不同的孕产妇、新生儿和儿童健康服务区域的前瞻性妊娠观察数据进行了研究:孟加拉国国际腹泻疾病研究中心(icddr,b)和孟加拉国Matlab的政府服务区域。我们使用多变量逻辑回归模型评估社会人口统计学的变化和趋势。研究结果:CS的比例从2005年的5.9%上升到2019年的55.7%,增长了约9倍,年均增长率为3.3%。CS与居住在icddr,b服务区域(相对于政府服务区域),年龄较大,较高资产,较低的胎次出生率呈正相关,并且在较小程度上与较高的教育水平呈正相关。在与CS呈正相关的因素中,我们观察到产妇年龄、教育程度和分娩地点的负时间相互作用,表明在这些类别中,高危组和低风险组的CS发生率趋同。然而,平价和资产得分的正时间相互作用表明,CS利率的差异持续存在,并随着时间的推移而扩大。结论:无论社会人口地位或服务区域如何,向几乎普遍的CS过渡可能是孟加拉国农村不可避免的未来。如果如此高的CS比率被认为是对母婴健康的次优选择,那么就需要证据来支持替代方案。
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引用次数: 0
Oral PrEP continuation rates among key populations in Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study of a large-scale HIV prevention programme. 尼日利亚关键人群的口服PrEP延续率:一项大规模艾滋病毒预防规划的回顾性队列研究
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018739
Kene David Nwosu, Abiye Kalaiwo, Wingston Ng'ambi, Omosalewa Oyelaran, Paul Umoh, Janne Estill, Olivia Keiser

Introduction: Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention strategy, but its impact is limited by low uptake and poor continuation rates. This study investigates oral PrEP continuation among key populations (KPs) enrolled in an HIV prevention programme across seven states in Nigeria, representing one of the largest longitudinal PrEP continuation studies in Sub-Saharan Africa to date.

Methods: We analysed data from 43 788 clients who initiated daily oral PrEP between January 2020 and March 2023. The sample comprised female sex workers (20 574, 47.0%), men who have sex with men (12 946, 29.6%), people who inject drugs (9462, 21.6%) and transgender individuals (806, 1.8%). The primary outcome was 6-month PrEP continuation, defined as having a recorded PrEP refill more than 6 months after initiation. We used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to identify factors associated with PrEP continuation; the model included KP group, age, education, occupation, marital status and time since PrEP initiation and accounted for clustering at the facility level.

Results: Among the 43 788 clients initiating PrEP, the 6-month continuation rate was 11.5%. Female sex workers had the highest 6-month continuation rate (13.7%), while transgender individuals had the lowest (3.5%; adjusted OR (aOR) 0.37 (0.24-0.55), compared with female sex workers). The continuation rate generally increased with age; the oldest clients (≥40 years) had a significantly higher continuation rate than those aged 18-24 (12.9% vs 11.0%; aOR 1.15 (1.02-1.29)). Unemployment was also associated with a small but significant reduction in continuation, with a rate of 11.8% for unemployed clients compared with 12.1% for employed clients (aOR 0.86 (0.79-0.94)).

Conclusion: These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to improve PrEP continuation among KPs in Nigeria, particularly for younger clients and transgender people.

暴露前预防(PrEP)是一种有效的艾滋病毒预防策略,但由于使用率低和持续率低,其影响有限。本研究调查了尼日利亚七个州参加艾滋病毒预防规划的关键人群(KPs)的口服PrEP延续情况,这是迄今为止撒哈拉以南非洲最大的纵向PrEP延续研究之一。方法:我们分析了2020年1月至2023年3月期间开始每日口服PrEP的43 788名患者的数据。样本包括女性性工作者(20 574人,47.0%)、男男性行为者(12 946人,29.6%)、注射吸毒者(9462人,21.6%)和跨性别者(806人,1.8%)。主要结局是持续6个月的PrEP,定义为在开始治疗后6个月有记录的PrEP补充。我们使用多变量混合效应逻辑回归来确定与PrEP持续相关的因素;该模型包括KP组、年龄、教育程度、职业、婚姻状况和开始PrEP的时间,并在设施层面上进行聚类。结果:在43 788例开始使用PrEP的患者中,6个月的持续率为11.5%。女性性工作者的6个月延续率最高(13.7%),而变性人最低(3.5%;与女性性工作者相比,调整后的OR (aOR)为0.37(0.24-0.55)。延续率一般随年龄增长而增加;年龄最大(≥40岁)患者的延续率显著高于18-24岁患者(12.9% vs 11.0%; aOR为1.15(1.02-1.29))。失业也与持续减少有关,失业客户的比率为11.8%,而就业客户的比率为12.1% (aOR为0.86(0.79-0.94))。结论:这些发现突出表明,需要采取有针对性的干预措施,以改善尼日利亚初级保健提供者(KPs),特别是年轻客户和跨性别者的PrEP持续性。
{"title":"Oral PrEP continuation rates among key populations in Nigeria: a retrospective cohort study of a large-scale HIV prevention programme.","authors":"Kene David Nwosu, Abiye Kalaiwo, Wingston Ng'ambi, Omosalewa Oyelaran, Paul Umoh, Janne Estill, Olivia Keiser","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018739","DOIUrl":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018739","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention strategy, but its impact is limited by low uptake and poor continuation rates. This study investigates oral PrEP continuation among key populations (KPs) enrolled in an HIV prevention programme across seven states in Nigeria, representing one of the largest longitudinal PrEP continuation studies in Sub-Saharan Africa to date.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We analysed data from 43 788 clients who initiated daily oral PrEP between January 2020 and March 2023. The sample comprised female sex workers (20 574, 47.0%), men who have sex with men (12 946, 29.6%), people who inject drugs (9462, 21.6%) and transgender individuals (806, 1.8%). The primary outcome was 6-month PrEP continuation, defined as having a recorded PrEP refill more than 6 months after initiation. We used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression to identify factors associated with PrEP continuation; the model included KP group, age, education, occupation, marital status and time since PrEP initiation and accounted for clustering at the facility level.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among the 43 788 clients initiating PrEP, the 6-month continuation rate was 11.5%. Female sex workers had the highest 6-month continuation rate (13.7%), while transgender individuals had the lowest (3.5%; adjusted OR (aOR) 0.37 (0.24-0.55), compared with female sex workers). The continuation rate generally increased with age; the oldest clients (≥40 years) had a significantly higher continuation rate than those aged 18-24 (12.9% vs 11.0%; aOR 1.15 (1.02-1.29)). Unemployment was also associated with a small but significant reduction in continuation, with a rate of 11.8% for unemployed clients compared with 12.1% for employed clients (aOR 0.86 (0.79-0.94)).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>These findings highlight the need for targeted interventions to improve PrEP continuation among KPs in Nigeria, particularly for younger clients and transgender people.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"10 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12716584/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145793238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exploring the perceived impact and influence of women leaders across sub-Saharan Africa on health policy and gender equity. 探讨撒哈拉以南非洲妇女领袖对卫生政策和性别平等的影响和影响。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021163
Anna Kalbarczyk, Milly Nakatabira, Katherine Banchoff, Islam Ahmed, Sualiha Abdulkader, Terefe Gelibo Argefa, Choolwe Jacobs, Helen Kuo, Malanto Rabary, Rosemary Morgan

Introduction: Women make up a significant portion of the global health workforce but are under-represented in leadership roles. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), 70% of the health workforce is women, yet only 38% hold leadership positions in health ministries. This gap can lead to gender biases in health research and policymaking, perpetuating systemic gender biases. Despite these barriers, women leaders are making an impact globally. However, evidence of their impact is lacking.

Methods: We conducted an explanatory sequential mixed-methods study to identify perceptions of women leaders' influence and impact within the fields of reproductive, maternal, child and adolescent health and nutrition and immunisation across SSA. The study included a multicountry online survey with men and women leaders and key informant interviews with a subset of women leaders. Descriptive statistics were computed with SPSS, and thematic analysis was conducted using NVivo.

Results: 408 women and men leaders completed at least one section of the survey; 34 women leaders participated in key informant interviews. Women leaders are conducting their leadership differently, using identity-derived power and the power of the collective to influence health policy and programme change. They have unique access to communities and can build trust with marginalised groups. Women leaders also prioritise women-centric and neglected health issues, demonstrating ethical responsibility through transparency, commitment to inclusion, accountability and maximising impact with limited resources.

Conclusion: The findings from this study underscore the critical role of women leaders in advancing health policy and gender equity across SSA. Women leaders' impact can be amplified and enhanced through targeted investments that strengthen enabling environments, foster allyship, champion gender integration activities implemented by women leaders and support their unique networks. Such investments will benefit women and adolescent girls and contribute to achieving broader public health goals and sustainable development.

导言:妇女在全球卫生人力中占很大一部分,但在领导角色中代表性不足。在撒哈拉以南非洲,70%的卫生工作者是妇女,但只有38%的人在卫生部担任领导职务。这一差距可能导致卫生研究和政策制定中的性别偏见,使系统性性别偏见永久化。尽管存在这些障碍,但女性领导人正在全球产生影响。然而,缺乏证据证明它们的影响。方法:我们进行了一项解释性顺序混合方法研究,以确定女性领导者在整个SSA的生殖、孕产妇、儿童和青少年健康、营养和免疫领域的影响力和影响。这项研究包括对多国男性和女性领导人的在线调查,以及对部分女性领导人的关键信息提供者的访谈。描述性统计用SPSS软件计算,专题分析用NVivo软件进行。结果:408名男女领导至少完成了调查的一个部分;34名女性领导人参加了关键信息提供者访谈。妇女领导人正在以不同的方式发挥领导作用,利用源自身份的权力和集体的权力来影响卫生政策和规划的变化。他们有进入社区的独特途径,可以与边缘群体建立信任。妇女领导人还优先考虑以妇女为中心和被忽视的健康问题,通过透明度、对包容的承诺、问责制和在有限的资源下最大限度地发挥影响,表现出道德责任。结论:本研究的结果强调了妇女领导人在推动整个SSA的卫生政策和性别平等方面的关键作用。通过有针对性的投资,可以扩大和加强妇女领导人的影响,加强有利环境,培养盟友关系,支持妇女领导人实施的性别融合活动,并支持她们独特的网络。这种投资将使妇女和少女受益,并有助于实现更广泛的公共卫生目标和可持续发展。
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引用次数: 0
Infection prevention and healthcare epidemiology professionals in low- and middle-income countries: a needs assessment survey and call for action. 低收入和中等收入国家的感染预防和保健流行病学专业人员:需求评估调查和行动呼吁。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-018265
Pranavi Sreeramoju, Xiaoyan Song, Ana Cecilia Bardossy, Jose Cadena, Corey A Forde, Payal Patel, Jorge Salinas, Catherine Tolliver, Bassem Zayed, Sarah L Krein

Introduction: More than 75% of the global population resides in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where healthcare-associated infection rates are notably higher than in high-income countries. Little is known about the professional experiences, perceptions and needs of infection prevention and healthcare epidemiology professionals (IPHEP) practising in these countries.

Methods: A voluntary and anonymous online survey of IPHEP in LMICs was conducted via open invitations on social media and email from October 2022 to January 2023. The survey covered five domains: (1) Survey Responders, Practice Setting and Programme Characteristics; (2) Job Responsibilities, Training and Professional Development; (3) Workload and Work Environment; (4) COVID-19 Response; and (5) Priorities and Needs. Descriptive statistics were generated for the total sample and each World Bank region.

Results: The number of survey respondents was 148, who represented 28/138 (20.3%) LMICs. They reported receiving formal training in infection prevention (80/94, 85.1%), antimicrobial stewardship (44/94, 46.8%), quality improvement and patient safety tools (55/94, 58.5%) and leadership (37/94, 39.4%). Importantly, 48.8% (42/86) reported job burnout. During the COVID-19 pandemic, 55/102 (53.9%) respondents reported their programme as effective or extremely effective, and 58/102 (56.9%) reported moderate or extreme financial hardship for their facility. Hand hygiene, improving antibiotic use and preventing multidrug-resistant organisms were ranked as top three priorities to be addressed, with specific resource needs identified for each programme by 89.0%, 95.0% and 93.8% of the survey respondents, respectively.

Conclusion: This survey provides crucial insights into the realities faced by IPHEP in LMICs, emphasising the critical need for developing and strengthening workforce, supporting their organisational environments, allocating resources strategically for infection prevention and control initiatives, as well as improving their connectivity with other IPHEP colleagues across the world to foster greater collaboration and support.

导言:全球75%以上的人口居住在低收入和中等收入国家,这些国家与卫生保健相关的感染率明显高于高收入国家。在这些国家执业的感染预防和卫生保健流行病学专业人员(IPHEP)的专业经验、观念和需求知之甚少。方法:于2022年10月至2023年1月,通过社交媒体和电子邮件的公开邀请,对中低收入国家的IPHEP进行自愿匿名在线调查。调查涵盖五个领域:(1)调查应答者、实践设置和项目特征;(2)岗位职责、培训与专业发展;(3)工作量和工作环境;(4) COVID-19应对;(5)优先事项和需求。对总样本和世界银行各区域进行了描述性统计。结果:调查对象148人,占中低收入国家的28/138(20.3%)。他们报告接受了感染预防(80/ 94,85.1%)、抗菌药物管理(44/ 94,46.8%)、质量改进和患者安全工具(55/ 94,58.5%)和领导(37/ 94,39.4%)方面的正式培训。重要的是,48.8%(42/86)的受访者表示工作倦怠。在2019冠状病毒病大流行期间,55/102(53.9%)的受访者报告其方案有效或极其有效,58/102(56.9%)的受访者报告其机构存在中度或极端财务困难。手卫生、改善抗生素使用和预防耐多药微生物被列为需要解决的三大优先事项,89.0%、95.0%和93.8%的调查答复者分别确定了每个规划的具体资源需求。结论:这项调查为中低收入国家IPHEP面临的现实提供了重要的见解,强调了发展和加强劳动力的迫切需要,支持他们的组织环境,为感染预防和控制举措战略性地分配资源,以及改善他们与世界各地IPHEP同事的联系,以促进更大的合作和支持。
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引用次数: 0
Tracking progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 in Kenya using time series models. 使用时间序列模型跟踪肯尼亚实现可持续发展目标3.2的进展情况。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021489
Welcome Jabulani Dlamini, Sileshi Fanta Melesse, Henry Godwell Mwambi

Background: Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2, which aims to reduce under-five mortality rate (UFMR) below 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030, is still a crucial target for improved child survival in sub-Saharan Africa because UFMRs are still high and progress has stalled in recent years.

Objective: This study aimed to model the possibility of reaching the SDG 3.2 target by 2030 and evaluate trends in under-five mortality in Kenya.

Method: Three models: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) and hybrid were fitted to annual national under-five mortality data from 1995 to 2022. Automated model selection showed ARIMA (0,2,1) as the best fitting model from information criteria, predictive accuracy and residual diagnostics. The model was tested with mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and tested against the 80/20 train-test split.

Results: Kenya's UFMR has been slightly declining over the course of the study, but the ARIMA projection indicates that the rate of fall is slowing. By 2030, the UFMR is expected to be 27.8 deaths per 1000 live births (95% prediction interval (PI) 25.2 to 30.3), over the SDG 3.2 goal level (signifying an increase in predicted uncertainty). The upper bound of humanity's real 95% PI still far exceeds the aim, even as the lower bound has started to move closer. Kenya would require an accelerated annual decline in roughly 2.43 fatalities per 1000 starting in 2023 much higher than trends seen in the recent past to meet SDG 3.2.

Conclusion: Kenya's UFMR has significantly decreased; however, the SDG 3.2 target might not be met by 2030 without more initiatives. To accelerate progress, it will be essential to improve mother and child health services, increase community-level interventions, address social injustices and employ more focused county-specific strategies. Using additional high-quality data and improved modelling tools could enhance child mortality monitoring and prediction in the future.

背景:可持续发展目标3.2旨在到2030年将五岁以下儿童死亡率降低到每1000例活产死亡25人以下,这仍然是改善撒哈拉以南非洲儿童生存的关键具体目标,因为五岁以下儿童死亡率仍然很高,而且近年来进展停滞。目的:本研究旨在模拟到2030年实现可持续发展目标3.2的可能性,并评估肯尼亚五岁以下儿童死亡率的趋势。方法:对1995 - 2022年全国5岁以下儿童死亡率数据进行自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)、自回归部分综合移动平均(ARFIMA)和混合模型的拟合。自动模型选择结果表明,从信息标准、预测精度和残差诊断等方面来看,ARIMA(0,2,1)是最优拟合模型。对模型进行了平均绝对误差、均方根误差、平均绝对百分比误差的检验,并对80/20训练检验分割进行了检验。结果:肯尼亚的UFMR在研究过程中略有下降,但ARIMA的预测表明下降的速度正在放缓。到2030年,平均死亡率预计为每1000例活产27.8例死亡(95%预测区间为25.2至30.3),高于可持续发展目标3.2的目标水平(表明预测的不确定性增加)。人类真正的95% PI的上限仍然远远超过了目标,即使下限已经开始接近。为了实现可持续发展目标3.2,肯尼亚需要从2023年开始,每年加速将死亡人数减少到每1000人约2.43人,这一数字远高于最近的趋势。结论:肯尼亚的UFMR明显下降;然而,如果不采取更多举措,到2030年可能无法实现可持续发展目标3.2。为了加快进展,必须改善母亲和儿童保健服务,增加社区一级的干预措施,解决社会不公正现象,并采用更具针对性的国别战略。使用更多的高质量数据和改进的建模工具可以加强今后对儿童死亡率的监测和预测。
{"title":"Tracking progress towards Sustainable Development Goal 3.2 in Kenya using time series models.","authors":"Welcome Jabulani Dlamini, Sileshi Fanta Melesse, Henry Godwell Mwambi","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021489","DOIUrl":"10.1136/bmjgh-2025-021489","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.2, which aims to reduce under-five mortality rate (UFMR) below 25 deaths per 1000 live births by 2030, is still a crucial target for improved child survival in sub-Saharan Africa because UFMRs are still high and progress has stalled in recent years.</p><p><strong>Objective: </strong>This study aimed to model the possibility of reaching the SDG 3.2 target by 2030 and evaluate trends in under-five mortality in Kenya.</p><p><strong>Method: </strong>Three models: autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), autoregressive fractionally integrated moving average (ARFIMA) and hybrid were fitted to annual national under-five mortality data from 1995 to 2022. Automated model selection showed ARIMA (0,2,1) as the best fitting model from information criteria, predictive accuracy and residual diagnostics. The model was tested with mean absolute error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error and tested against the 80/20 train-test split.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Kenya's UFMR has been slightly declining over the course of the study, but the ARIMA projection indicates that the rate of fall is slowing. By 2030, the UFMR is expected to be 27.8 deaths per 1000 live births (95% prediction interval (PI) 25.2 to 30.3), over the SDG 3.2 goal level (signifying an increase in predicted uncertainty). The upper bound of humanity's real 95% PI still far exceeds the aim, even as the lower bound has started to move closer. Kenya would require an accelerated annual decline in roughly 2.43 fatalities per 1000 starting in 2023 much higher than trends seen in the recent past to meet SDG 3.2.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Kenya's UFMR has significantly decreased; however, the SDG 3.2 target might not be met by 2030 without more initiatives. To accelerate progress, it will be essential to improve mother and child health services, increase community-level interventions, address social injustices and employ more focused county-specific strategies. Using additional high-quality data and improved modelling tools could enhance child mortality monitoring and prediction in the future.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"10 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12716503/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145793266","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Addressing health information inequities: making evidence-based clinical content more accessible in low- and middle-income primary care. 解决卫生信息不公平问题:使低收入和中等收入初级保健更容易获得循证临床内容。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013814
Ruth Vania Cornick, Sandy Claire Picken, Ajibola Awotiwon, Mareike Rabe, Camilla Wattrus, Tasneem Fredericks, Venessa Timmerman, Lara R Fairall

Disparity in access to trustworthy health information between high-income and low-income settings remains stark and contributes to global health inequity. The volume of new clinical practice guidelines a healthcare provider needs to digest to deliver up-to-date, evidence-based care is overwhelming, particularly in primary care, where the scope is comprehensive. However, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack the resources to tailor guidance for their realities. International standards for adaptation or adoption of existing guidelines tend to focus on a single clinical topic and still require considerable evidence synthesis expertise, slowing provision of up-to-date, relevant protocols for the primary care provider.The Practical Approach to Care Kit (PACK) guide covers most conditions managed in primary care. It has been introduced to South Africa, Ethiopia, Brazil, Nigeria, Botswana and Indonesia to support primary care reforms. This paper describes the reference repository and updating mechanisms underpinning the PACK Global guide (that forms a template for local adaptation) so that it reflects latest international evidence and WHO guidance. The referencing and updating mechanism to curate its 3689 recommendations drew on the established evidence synthesis processes of the British Medical Journal's Best Practice and the WHO. The challenges of maintaining this content set were largely funding and resource constraints in our small team. We are exploring how advances in generative artificial intelligence might expedite review of the large clinical guidelines and policies required for PACK updates as well as address limitations of current database software as a content management system, to facilitate editorial and publication processes.Leveraging existing evidence synthesis processes appears to be a feasible approach to maintaining a comprehensive LMIC primary care clinical content set and may go some way to improving access to up-to-date health information, thus addressing global health inequities.

高收入和低收入环境之间在获取可靠卫生信息方面的差距仍然很大,这加剧了全球卫生不平等。医疗保健提供者需要消化的新临床实践指南的数量是压倒性的,以提供最新的,基于证据的护理,特别是在初级保健,其范围是全面的。然而,许多低收入和中等收入国家缺乏资源来根据其实际情况制定指导。适应或采用现有指南的国际标准往往侧重于单一临床主题,仍然需要大量的证据合成专业知识,减缓了向初级保健提供者提供最新的相关方案的速度。实用护理方法工具包(PACK)指南涵盖了初级保健管理的大多数情况。它已被引入南非、埃塞俄比亚、巴西、尼日利亚、博茨瓦纳和印度尼西亚,以支持初级保健改革。本文描述了支撑PACK全球指南(形成地方适应模板)的参考库和更新机制,以便反映最新的国际证据和世卫组织指南。编制其3689项建议的参考和更新机制借鉴了《英国医学杂志最佳做法》和世卫组织的既定证据综合程序。维护这个内容集的挑战主要是我们小团队的资金和资源限制。我们正在探索生成人工智能的进步如何加快对PACK更新所需的大型临床指南和政策的审查,以及解决当前数据库软件作为内容管理系统的局限性,以促进编辑和出版过程。利用现有的证据综合过程似乎是维持一个全面的低收入和中等收入国家初级保健临床内容集的可行方法,并可能在某种程度上改善获得最新卫生信息的机会,从而解决全球卫生不平等问题。
{"title":"Addressing health information inequities: making evidence-based clinical content more accessible in low- and middle-income primary care.","authors":"Ruth Vania Cornick, Sandy Claire Picken, Ajibola Awotiwon, Mareike Rabe, Camilla Wattrus, Tasneem Fredericks, Venessa Timmerman, Lara R Fairall","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013814","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Disparity in access to trustworthy health information between high-income and low-income settings remains stark and contributes to global health inequity. The volume of new clinical practice guidelines a healthcare provider needs to digest to deliver up-to-date, evidence-based care is overwhelming, particularly in primary care, where the scope is comprehensive. However, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) lack the resources to tailor guidance for their realities. International standards for adaptation or adoption of existing guidelines tend to focus on a single clinical topic and still require considerable evidence synthesis expertise, slowing provision of up-to-date, relevant protocols for the primary care provider.The Practical Approach to Care Kit (PACK) guide covers most conditions managed in primary care. It has been introduced to South Africa, Ethiopia, Brazil, Nigeria, Botswana and Indonesia to support primary care reforms. This paper describes the reference repository and updating mechanisms underpinning the PACK Global guide (that forms a template for local adaptation) so that it reflects latest international evidence and WHO guidance. The referencing and updating mechanism to curate its 3689 recommendations drew on the established evidence synthesis processes of the British Medical Journal's Best Practice and the WHO. The challenges of maintaining this content set were largely funding and resource constraints in our small team. We are exploring how advances in generative artificial intelligence might expedite review of the large clinical guidelines and policies required for PACK updates as well as address limitations of current database software as a content management system, to facilitate editorial and publication processes.Leveraging existing evidence synthesis processes appears to be a feasible approach to maintaining a comprehensive LMIC primary care clinical content set and may go some way to improving access to up-to-date health information, thus addressing global health inequities.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 Suppl 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145793259","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Obesogenicity of food in the informal food retail environment of low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review. 低收入和中等收入国家非正规食品零售环境中的食品致肥性:系统综述。
IF 6.1 2区 医学 Q1 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017783
Trish Muzenda, Jean Adams, Lambed Tatah, Muhammad Rabiu Balarabe, Tolu Oni

Background: Evidence on food environment obesogenicity has largely focused on the formal sector in high-income countries, overlooking informal food retail environments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Aim: To synthesise current evidence on the obesogenicity of foods in informal food retail environments in LMICs.

Methods: A systematic literature search across four academic databases: Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCOhost (Global Health) and EMBASE, using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results: Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the synthesis. Findings indicate the pervasive availability of unhealthy or more obesogenic alternatives at informal food outlets located at transport stops, public markets, schools and neighbourhoods. The results also highlight the hybrid nature of informal food environments in LMICs, where both healthier and obesogenic options. For example, at transport stops, both fresh produce and high-calorie snacks are readily available. These findings illustrate the complex interplay between food availability, customer preferences and dietary outcomes.

Conclusion: This review highlights gaps in understanding the informal food environment and the need for further research to address its complexity. The hybrid nature of this environment calls for strategies that incentivise food outlets to improve the healthfulness of their offerings. Policymakers and public health practitioners should consider tailored interventions to support healthier food choices within informal food retail settings.

背景:关于食品环境致肥性的证据主要集中在高收入国家的正规部门,忽视了低收入和中等收入国家(LMICs)的非正规食品零售环境。目的:综合目前关于中低收入国家非正规食品零售环境中食品致肥性的证据。方法:采用预定义的纳入和排除标准,对Scopus、Web of Science、EBSCOhost (Global Health)和EMBASE四个学术数据库进行系统的文献检索。结果:30项研究符合纳入标准,被纳入综合。调查结果表明,在交通站点、公共市场、学校和社区的非正式食品销售点,普遍存在不健康或更容易导致肥胖的替代品。研究结果还强调了中低收入国家非正规食物环境的混合性质,在这些地方,既有更健康的选择,也有致肥的选择。例如,在交通站点,新鲜农产品和高热量零食都很容易买到。这些发现说明了食物供应、顾客偏好和饮食结果之间复杂的相互作用。结论:这篇综述强调了对非正式食品环境的理解存在差距,需要进一步研究以解决其复杂性。这种环境的混合性质要求采取策略,激励食品销售点改善其产品的健康性。决策者和公共卫生从业人员应考虑量身定制的干预措施,以支持在非正式食品零售环境中选择更健康的食品。
{"title":"Obesogenicity of food in the informal food retail environment of low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review.","authors":"Trish Muzenda, Jean Adams, Lambed Tatah, Muhammad Rabiu Balarabe, Tolu Oni","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017783","DOIUrl":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-017783","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Evidence on food environment obesogenicity has largely focused on the formal sector in high-income countries, overlooking informal food retail environments in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).</p><p><strong>Aim: </strong>To synthesise current evidence on the obesogenicity of foods in informal food retail environments in LMICs.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A systematic literature search across four academic databases: Scopus, Web of Science, EBSCOhost (Global Health) and EMBASE, using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Thirty studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the synthesis. Findings indicate the pervasive availability of unhealthy or more obesogenic alternatives at informal food outlets located at transport stops, public markets, schools and neighbourhoods. The results also highlight the hybrid nature of informal food environments in LMICs, where both healthier and obesogenic options. For example, at transport stops, both fresh produce and high-calorie snacks are readily available. These findings illustrate the complex interplay between food availability, customer preferences and dietary outcomes.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>This review highlights gaps in understanding the informal food environment and the need for further research to address its complexity. The hybrid nature of this environment calls for strategies that incentivise food outlets to improve the healthfulness of their offerings. Policymakers and public health practitioners should consider tailored interventions to support healthier food choices within informal food retail settings.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"10 12","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":6.1,"publicationDate":"2025-12-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12716535/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145793263","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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