Pub Date : 2024-10-28DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013819
Sameer Shekar, Max Oscar Bachmann, Eric D Bateman, Rafael Stelmach, Alvaro Augusto Cruz, Ronaldo Zonta, Matheus Pacheco de Andrade, Jorge Zepeda, Ruth Vania Cornick, Camilla Wattrus, Daniella Georgeu-Pepper, Lauren Faye Anderson, Carl Lombard, Lara R Fairall
Background: Training primary care doctors and nurses to use Practical Approach to Care Kit (PACK) improved management of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a previous randomised trial. The present study examined the training effects including a second year of follow-up with expanded coverage of repeated training sessions.
Methods: Using a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design, 48 clinics were randomly allocated either to sequence A: (1) no intervention, (2) no intervention, (3) intervention or sequence B: (1) no intervention, (2) intervention, (3) intervention, during three 12-month periods. Primary outcomes were change in treatment and spirometry ordering. Effects of any exposure to the training, and of exposure to the first and second years of training, were estimated with mixed effect logistic regression models.
Results: Any exposure to training was associated with increased changes in treatment (OR adjusted for calendar time (OR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.64) and more spirometry ordering (OR 1.55, (95% CI 1.22 to 1.97)) in asthma patients, and with more spirometry ordering (OR 1.50 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.96)) in patients with COPD. Change in asthma treatment was more likely during the first and second year of exposure to training compared with no exposure (ORs 1.43 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.87); 1.91 (95% CI 1.21 to 3.02)), respectively. Spirometry was more likely during the first and second year of exposure in asthma patients (ORs 1.76 (95% CI 1.34 to 2.30); 2.05 (95% CI 1.32 to 3.19)) and in patients with COPD (ORs 1.57 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.10)); 1.71 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.70)).
Conclusion: Extended follow-up suggested that PACK training continued to be effective in improving chronic respiratory care and that effective intervention delivery was sustainable for 2 years.
Trial registration number: NCT02786030.
背景:在之前的一项随机试验中,培训初级保健医生和护士使用实用护理包(PACK)改善了哮喘和慢性阻塞性肺病(COPD)的管理。本研究考察了培训效果,包括第二年的随访,扩大了重复培训课程的覆盖范围:采用阶梯式楔形分组随机试验设计,将 48 家诊所随机分配到序列 A:(1) 无干预、(2) 无干预、(3) 干预或序列 B:(1) 无干预、(2) 干预、(3) 干预,为期三个 12 个月。主要结果是治疗和肺活量测定结果的变化。采用混合效应逻辑回归模型估算了接受任何培训以及接受第一年和第二年培训的影响:结果:哮喘患者接受任何培训都会导致治疗方法的改变(根据日历时间调整后的OR值为1.29,95% CI为1.02至1.64)和肺活量测定结果的增加(OR值为1.55,95% CI为1.22至1.97),而慢性阻塞性肺病患者接受肺活量测定结果的增加(OR值为1.50,95% CI为1.15至1.96)。与未接受培训相比,接受培训的第一年和第二年更有可能改变哮喘治疗方法(OR 分别为 1.43(95% CI 1.09 至 1.87);1.91(95% CI 1.21 至 3.02))。哮喘患者(ORs 1.76 (95% CI 1.34 to 2.30); 2.05 (95% CI 1.32 to 3.19))和慢性阻塞性肺病患者(ORs 1.57 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.10); 1.71 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.70))在接触后第一年和第二年更有可能进行肺活量测定:延长随访表明,PACK培训对改善慢性呼吸系统护理仍然有效,有效的干预措施可持续2年:NCT02786030。
{"title":"Effects of PACK training on the management of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease by primary care clinicians during 2 years of implementation in Florianópolis, Brazil: extended follow-up after a pragmatic cluster randomised controlled trial with a stepped-wedge design.","authors":"Sameer Shekar, Max Oscar Bachmann, Eric D Bateman, Rafael Stelmach, Alvaro Augusto Cruz, Ronaldo Zonta, Matheus Pacheco de Andrade, Jorge Zepeda, Ruth Vania Cornick, Camilla Wattrus, Daniella Georgeu-Pepper, Lauren Faye Anderson, Carl Lombard, Lara R Fairall","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013819","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-013819","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Training primary care doctors and nurses to use Practical Approach to Care Kit (PACK) improved management of asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in a previous randomised trial. The present study examined the training effects including a second year of follow-up with expanded coverage of repeated training sessions.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Using a stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design, 48 clinics were randomly allocated either to sequence A: (1) no intervention, (2) no intervention, (3) intervention or sequence B: (1) no intervention, (2) intervention, (3) intervention, during three 12-month periods. Primary outcomes were change in treatment and spirometry ordering. Effects of any exposure to the training, and of exposure to the first and second years of training, were estimated with mixed effect logistic regression models.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Any exposure to training was associated with increased changes in treatment (OR adjusted for calendar time (OR) 1.29, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.64) and more spirometry ordering (OR 1.55, (95% CI 1.22 to 1.97)) in asthma patients, and with more spirometry ordering (OR 1.50 (95% CI 1.15 to 1.96)) in patients with COPD. Change in asthma treatment was more likely during the first and second year of exposure to training compared with no exposure (ORs 1.43 (95% CI 1.09 to 1.87); 1.91 (95% CI 1.21 to 3.02)), respectively. Spirometry was more likely during the first and second year of exposure in asthma patients (ORs 1.76 (95% CI 1.34 to 2.30); 2.05 (95% CI 1.32 to 3.19)) and in patients with COPD (ORs 1.57 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.10)); 1.71 (95% CI 1.08 to 2.70)).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Extended follow-up suggested that PACK training continued to be effective in improving chronic respiratory care and that effective intervention delivery was sustainable for 2 years.</p><p><strong>Trial registration number: </strong>NCT02786030.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 Suppl 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142521030","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015694
Miriam van den Berg, Joanne Flavel, Ashley Schram, Sharon Friel, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Fran Baum
Progress in addressing systematic health inequities, both between and within countries, has been slow. However, there are examples of actions taken on social determinants of health and policy changes aimed at shaping the underlying sociopolitical context that drives these inequities.Using case study methodology, this article identifies five countries (Ethiopia, Jordan, Spain, Sri Lanka and Vietnam) that made progress on health equity during 2011-2021 and three countries (Afghanistan, Nigeria and the USA) that had not made the same gains. The case studies revealed social, cultural and political conditions that appeared to be prerequisites for enhancing health equity.Data related to population health outcomes, human development, poverty, universal healthcare, gender equity, sociocultural narratives, political stability and leadership, governance, peace, democracy, willingness to collaborate, social protection and the Sustainable Development Goals were interrogated revealing four key factors that help advance health equity. These were (1) action directed at structural determinants of health inequities, for example, sociopolitical conditions that determine the distribution of resources and opportunities based on gender, race, ethnicity and geographical location; (2) leadership and good governance, for example, the degree of freedom, and the absence of violence and terrorism; (3) a health equity lens for policy development, for example, facilitating the uptake of a health equity agenda through cross-sector policies and (4) taking action to level the social gradient in health through a combination of universal and targeted approaches.Reducing health inequities is a complex and challenging task. The countries in this study do not reveal guaranteed recipes for progressing health equity; however, the efforts should be recognised, as well as lessons learnt from countries struggling to make progress.
{"title":"Social, cultural and political conditions for advancing health equity: examples from eight country case studies (2011-2021).","authors":"Miriam van den Berg, Joanne Flavel, Ashley Schram, Sharon Friel, Hailay Abrha Gesesew, Fran Baum","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015694","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015694","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Progress in addressing systematic health inequities, both between and within countries, has been slow. However, there are examples of actions taken on social determinants of health and policy changes aimed at shaping the underlying sociopolitical context that drives these inequities.Using case study methodology, this article identifies five countries (Ethiopia, Jordan, Spain, Sri Lanka and Vietnam) that made progress on health equity during 2011-2021 and three countries (Afghanistan, Nigeria and the USA) that had not made the same gains. The case studies revealed social, cultural and political conditions that appeared to be prerequisites for enhancing health equity.Data related to population health outcomes, human development, poverty, universal healthcare, gender equity, sociocultural narratives, political stability and leadership, governance, peace, democracy, willingness to collaborate, social protection and the Sustainable Development Goals were interrogated revealing four key factors that help advance health equity. These were (1) action directed at structural determinants of health inequities, for example, sociopolitical conditions that determine the distribution of resources and opportunities based on gender, race, ethnicity and geographical location; (2) leadership and good governance, for example, the degree of freedom, and the absence of violence and terrorism; (3) a health equity lens for policy development, for example, facilitating the uptake of a health equity agenda through cross-sector policies and (4) taking action to level the social gradient in health through a combination of universal and targeted approaches.Reducing health inequities is a complex and challenging task. The countries in this study do not reveal guaranteed recipes for progressing health equity; however, the efforts should be recognised, as well as lessons learnt from countries struggling to make progress.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 Suppl 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495142","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014431
Giulia Roveri, Alice Crespi, Frederik Eisendle, Simon Rauch, Philipp Corradini, Stefan Steger, Marc Zebisch, Giacomo Strapazzon
The European Alps, home to a blend of permanent residents and millions of annual tourists, are found to be particularly sensitive to climate change. This article employs the impact chain concept to explore the interplay between climate change and health in Alpine areas, offering an interdisciplinary assessment of current and future health consequences and potential adaptation strategies.Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and increasing extreme weather events have profound implications for the Alpine regions. Temperatures have risen significantly over the past century, with projections indicating further increases and more frequent heatwaves. These trends increase the risk of heat-related health issues especially for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, frail individuals, children and recreationists. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns, glacier retreat and permafrost melting adversely impact slope stability increasing the risk of gravity-driven natural hazards like landslides, avalanches and rockfalls. This poses direct threats, elevates the risk of multi-casualty incidents and strains search and rescue teams.The environmental changes also impact Alpine flora and fauna, altering the distribution and transmission of vector-borne diseases. Such events directly impact healthcare administration and management programmes, which are already challenged by surges in tourism and ensuring access to care.In conclusion, Alpine regions must proactively address these climate change-related health risks through an interdisciplinary approach, considering both preventive and responsive adaptation strategies, which we describe in this article.
{"title":"Climate change and human health in Alpine environments: an interdisciplinary impact chain approach understanding today's risks to address tomorrow's challenges.","authors":"Giulia Roveri, Alice Crespi, Frederik Eisendle, Simon Rauch, Philipp Corradini, Stefan Steger, Marc Zebisch, Giacomo Strapazzon","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014431","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014431","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The European Alps, home to a blend of permanent residents and millions of annual tourists, are found to be particularly sensitive to climate change. This article employs the impact chain concept to explore the interplay between climate change and health in Alpine areas, offering an interdisciplinary assessment of current and future health consequences and potential adaptation strategies.Rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns and increasing extreme weather events have profound implications for the Alpine regions. Temperatures have risen significantly over the past century, with projections indicating further increases and more frequent heatwaves. These trends increase the risk of heat-related health issues especially for vulnerable groups, including the elderly, frail individuals, children and recreationists. Furthermore, changing precipitation patterns, glacier retreat and permafrost melting adversely impact slope stability increasing the risk of gravity-driven natural hazards like landslides, avalanches and rockfalls. This poses direct threats, elevates the risk of multi-casualty incidents and strains search and rescue teams.The environmental changes also impact Alpine flora and fauna, altering the distribution and transmission of vector-borne diseases. Such events directly impact healthcare administration and management programmes, which are already challenged by surges in tourism and ensuring access to care.In conclusion, Alpine regions must proactively address these climate change-related health risks through an interdisciplinary approach, considering both preventive and responsive adaptation strategies, which we describe in this article.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"8 Suppl 3","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495128","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-23DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015649
Yayehyirad M Ejigu, Kara L Neil, Abebe Bekele, David J Bradley, Emmanuel Rusingiza, Gaston Nyirigira, Augustin Sendegeya, Valerie W Rusch, Bertrand Byishimo, Zerihun Abebe, Roda Uwayesu, Menelas Nkeshimana, Yvan Butera
Paediatric cardiovascular diseases have been referred to as diseases of injustice as access to care is inequitable globally. For example, Africa only has 78 cardiac centres, with 22 located in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of these centres rely on visiting surgical teams to provide clinical care. While visiting surgical teams provide essential care, building a sustainable and locally run cardiac workforce in Africa is critical to addressing these inequities in access to care. This paper considers the role of south-to-south partnerships in building sustainable surgical programmes using Rwanda's paediatric cardiac surgery programme as an example.
{"title":"South-to-south collaboration to strengthen the health workforce: the case of paediatric cardiac surgery in Rwanda.","authors":"Yayehyirad M Ejigu, Kara L Neil, Abebe Bekele, David J Bradley, Emmanuel Rusingiza, Gaston Nyirigira, Augustin Sendegeya, Valerie W Rusch, Bertrand Byishimo, Zerihun Abebe, Roda Uwayesu, Menelas Nkeshimana, Yvan Butera","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015649","DOIUrl":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015649","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Paediatric cardiovascular diseases have been referred to as diseases of injustice as access to care is inequitable globally. For example, Africa only has 78 cardiac centres, with 22 located in Sub-Saharan Africa. Most of these centres rely on visiting surgical teams to provide clinical care. While visiting surgical teams provide essential care, building a sustainable and locally run cardiac workforce in Africa is critical to addressing these inequities in access to care. This paper considers the role of south-to-south partnerships in building sustainable surgical programmes using Rwanda's paediatric cardiac surgery programme as an example.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499810/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142516297","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015675
Roger Kamba, Amine El Mourid, Raoul Mpoyi Ngambwa, Donat Chungu Salumu, Jean-Bernard Le Gargasson, Daniel Nacoulma, Marcellin Nimpa Mengouo, Nolan Meyer, Christophe Luhata, Nicole A Hoff, Hadia Samaha, Collard Madika, Christelle Mputu, Sylvia Tangney, Cyril Nogier, Chris Diomi, Sydney Merritt, Emma Din, Polydor Kabila, Annabelle Burgett, Didier Nyombo, Emmanuelle Assy, Dalau Mukadi Nkamba, Lora Bertin, Trad Hatton, Didine Kaba, Anne W Rimoin, Elisabeth Mukamba Musenga, Aimé Cikomola, Guillaume Ngoie Mwamba, Sylvain Yuman Ramazani, Kamel Senouci, Magdalena Robert
Immunisation is a high priority for improving health outcomes. Yet, in many low-income and middle-income countries, achieving coverage targets independently is hindered by lack of domestic resources and reliance on partners' support. Both the 2001 Abuja Declaration and 2016 Addis Declaration were key political commitments to improving immunisation coverage; however, many signatories have yet to meet international targets. Despite signing the Global Vaccine Action Plan and Addis Declaration, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was unable to fully disburse its portion of allocated funds to cover vaccines without support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the World Bank between 2017 and 2019. Additionally, during the same time, vaccine coverage outcomes indicated negative trends, with over 750 000 children considered 'zero-dose' in 2018. In 2019, a primary focus of the then newly elected President's agenda was universal healthcare. In collaboration with development partners and stakeholders, the first Presidential Forum was held as a public commitment to increasing childhood immunisation and ensuring the country remains polio-free. This article seeks to highlight the key outcomes of the Forum such as the signing of the Kinshasa Declaration, which formally set targets and specified national, provincial and community-level commitments to vaccination and polio eradication. As of 2023, three Forums have been conducted to reiterate political commitment to routine immunisation in the DRC. This type of high-level commitment could serve as a template for other countries struggling to have high engagement as targets for polio eradication and strengthened routine immunisation are set for 2025-2030.
{"title":"Political engagement: a key pillar in revitalisation of polio and routine immunisation programmes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.","authors":"Roger Kamba, Amine El Mourid, Raoul Mpoyi Ngambwa, Donat Chungu Salumu, Jean-Bernard Le Gargasson, Daniel Nacoulma, Marcellin Nimpa Mengouo, Nolan Meyer, Christophe Luhata, Nicole A Hoff, Hadia Samaha, Collard Madika, Christelle Mputu, Sylvia Tangney, Cyril Nogier, Chris Diomi, Sydney Merritt, Emma Din, Polydor Kabila, Annabelle Burgett, Didier Nyombo, Emmanuelle Assy, Dalau Mukadi Nkamba, Lora Bertin, Trad Hatton, Didine Kaba, Anne W Rimoin, Elisabeth Mukamba Musenga, Aimé Cikomola, Guillaume Ngoie Mwamba, Sylvain Yuman Ramazani, Kamel Senouci, Magdalena Robert","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015675","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015675","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Immunisation is a high priority for improving health outcomes. Yet, in many low-income and middle-income countries, achieving coverage targets independently is hindered by lack of domestic resources and reliance on partners' support. Both the 2001 Abuja Declaration and 2016 Addis Declaration were key political commitments to improving immunisation coverage; however, many signatories have yet to meet international targets. Despite signing the Global Vaccine Action Plan and Addis Declaration, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) was unable to fully disburse its portion of allocated funds to cover vaccines without support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the World Bank between 2017 and 2019. Additionally, during the same time, vaccine coverage outcomes indicated negative trends, with over 750 000 children considered 'zero-dose' in 2018. In 2019, a primary focus of the then newly elected President's agenda was universal healthcare. In collaboration with development partners and stakeholders, the first Presidential Forum was held as a public commitment to increasing childhood immunisation and ensuring the country remains polio-free. This article seeks to highlight the key outcomes of the Forum such as the signing of the Kinshasa Declaration, which formally set targets and specified national, provincial and community-level commitments to vaccination and polio eradication. As of 2023, three Forums have been conducted to reiterate political commitment to routine immunisation in the DRC. This type of high-level commitment could serve as a template for other countries struggling to have high engagement as targets for polio eradication and strengthened routine immunisation are set for 2025-2030.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499833/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495140","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014695
Melanie Coates, Paul Li Jen Cheh, Thanathip Suenghataiphorn, Wasin Laohavinij, Aungsumalee Pholpark, Natchaya Ritthisirikul, Sirithorn Khositchaiwat, Piya Hanvoravongchai
The COVID-19 pandemic presented a significant challenge to health systems worldwide, requiring resources to be directed to the pandemic response while also maintaining essential health services. Those with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, and interrupted care resulting from the pandemic has the potential to worsen morbidity and mortality.We used narrative literature review and key informant interviews between August 2021 and June 2022 to identify how NCD services were impacted during the pandemic and which good practices helped support uninterrupted care.On the background of an existing strong healthcare system, Thailand exhibited strong central coordination of the response, minimised funding interruptions and leveraged existing infrastructure to make efficient use of limited resources, such as through mobilising healthcare workforce. A key intervention has been redesigning NCD systems such as through the 'New Normal Medical Services' initiative. This has promoted digital innovations, including remote self-monitoring, patient risk stratification and alternative medication dispensing. Emphasis has been placed on multidisciplinary, patient-centred and community-centred care.NCD service utilisation has been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, newly adapted efforts on top of existing robust systems have been critical to mitigating disruptions. Yet challenges remain, including ensuring ongoing evaluation, adaptation and sustainability of redesign initiatives. This learning offers the potential to further positive health systems change on a wider scale, through sharing knowledge, international collaboration and further refinement of the 'new normal' model.
{"title":"Maintaining non-communicable disease (NCD) services during the COVID-19 pandemic: lessons from Thailand.","authors":"Melanie Coates, Paul Li Jen Cheh, Thanathip Suenghataiphorn, Wasin Laohavinij, Aungsumalee Pholpark, Natchaya Ritthisirikul, Sirithorn Khositchaiwat, Piya Hanvoravongchai","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014695","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2023-014695","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>The COVID-19 pandemic presented a significant challenge to health systems worldwide, requiring resources to be directed to the pandemic response while also maintaining essential health services. Those with non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are particularly vulnerable to COVID-19, and interrupted care resulting from the pandemic has the potential to worsen morbidity and mortality.We used narrative literature review and key informant interviews between August 2021 and June 2022 to identify how NCD services were impacted during the pandemic and which good practices helped support uninterrupted care.On the background of an existing strong healthcare system, Thailand exhibited strong central coordination of the response, minimised funding interruptions and leveraged existing infrastructure to make efficient use of limited resources, such as through mobilising healthcare workforce. A key intervention has been redesigning NCD systems such as through the 'New Normal Medical Services' initiative. This has promoted digital innovations, including remote self-monitoring, patient risk stratification and alternative medication dispensing. Emphasis has been placed on multidisciplinary, patient-centred and community-centred care.NCD service utilisation has been disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, newly adapted efforts on top of existing robust systems have been critical to mitigating disruptions. Yet challenges remain, including ensuring ongoing evaluation, adaptation and sustainability of redesign initiatives. This learning offers the potential to further positive health systems change on a wider scale, through sharing knowledge, international collaboration and further refinement of the 'new normal' model.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"8 Suppl 6","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495127","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015985
Charles J Gerardo, Rebecca W Carter, Surendra Kumar, Farshad M Shirazi, Suneetha D Kotehal, Peter D Akpunonu, Ashish Bhalla, Richard B Schwartz, Chanaveerappa Bammigatti, Neeraj Manikath, Partha P Mukherjee, Thomas C Arnold, Brian J Wolk, Sophia S Sheikh, Dawn R Sollee, David J Vearrier, Samuel J Francis, Adiel Aizenberg, Harish Kumar, Madhu K Ravikumar, Sujoy Sarkar, Taylor Haston, Andrew Micciche, Suraj C Oomman, Jeffery L Owen, Brandi A Ritter, Stephen P Samuel, Matthew R Lewin, Timothy F Platts-Mills
Introduction: Snakebite envenoming (SBE) results in over 500 000 deaths or disabling injuries annually. Varespladib methyl, an oral inhibitor of secretory phospholipase A2, is a nearly ubiquitous component of snake venoms. We conducted a phase II clinical trial to assess efficacy and safety of oral varespladib methyl in patients bitten by venomous snakes.
Methods: This double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial enrolled patients in emergency departments in India and the USA. Patients with SBE were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive varespladib methyl or placebo two times per day for 1 week. All patients received standard of care, including antivenom. The primary outcome was change in the composite Snakebite Severity Score (SSS) measuring the severity of envenoming, from baseline to the average composite SSS at 6 and 9 hours.
Results: Among 95 patients randomised August 2021 through November 2022, the most common snakebites were from Russell's vipers (n=29), copperheads (n=18) and rattlesnakes (n=14). The SSS improved from baseline to the average at 6 and 9 hours by 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.6) in the varespladib group versus 1.5 (95% CI, 1.0 to 2.0) in the placebo group (difference -0.4, 95% CI, -0.8 to 0.1, p=0.13). While key secondary outcomes were not statistically different by treatment group, benefit was seen in the prespecified subgroup initiating study drug within 5 hours of bite (n=37). For this early treatment group, clinically important differences were observed for illness severity over the first week, patient-reported function on days 3 and 7 and complete recovery. No death or treatment emergent serious adverse event occurred.
Conclusion: For emergency department treatment of snakebites, the addition of varespladib to antivenom did not find evidence of difference for the primary outcome based on the SSS. A potentially promising signal of benefit was observed in patients initiating treatment within 5 hours of snakebite.
{"title":"Oral varespladib for the treatment of snakebite envenoming in India and the USA (BRAVO): a phase II randomised clinical trial.","authors":"Charles J Gerardo, Rebecca W Carter, Surendra Kumar, Farshad M Shirazi, Suneetha D Kotehal, Peter D Akpunonu, Ashish Bhalla, Richard B Schwartz, Chanaveerappa Bammigatti, Neeraj Manikath, Partha P Mukherjee, Thomas C Arnold, Brian J Wolk, Sophia S Sheikh, Dawn R Sollee, David J Vearrier, Samuel J Francis, Adiel Aizenberg, Harish Kumar, Madhu K Ravikumar, Sujoy Sarkar, Taylor Haston, Andrew Micciche, Suraj C Oomman, Jeffery L Owen, Brandi A Ritter, Stephen P Samuel, Matthew R Lewin, Timothy F Platts-Mills","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015985","DOIUrl":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015985","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>Snakebite envenoming (SBE) results in over 500 000 deaths or disabling injuries annually. Varespladib methyl, an oral inhibitor of secretory phospholipase A2, is a nearly ubiquitous component of snake venoms. We conducted a phase II clinical trial to assess efficacy and safety of oral varespladib methyl in patients bitten by venomous snakes.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>This double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled trial enrolled patients in emergency departments in India and the USA. Patients with SBE were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive varespladib methyl or placebo two times per day for 1 week. All patients received standard of care, including antivenom. The primary outcome was change in the composite Snakebite Severity Score (SSS) measuring the severity of envenoming, from baseline to the average composite SSS at 6 and 9 hours.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Among 95 patients randomised August 2021 through November 2022, the most common snakebites were from Russell's vipers (n=29), copperheads (n=18) and rattlesnakes (n=14). The SSS improved from baseline to the average at 6 and 9 hours by 1.1 (95% CI, 0.7 to 1.6) in the varespladib group versus 1.5 (95% CI, 1.0 to 2.0) in the placebo group (difference -0.4, 95% CI, -0.8 to 0.1, p=0.13). While key secondary outcomes were not statistically different by treatment group, benefit was seen in the prespecified subgroup initiating study drug within 5 hours of bite (n=37). For this early treatment group, clinically important differences were observed for illness severity over the first week, patient-reported function on days 3 and 7 and complete recovery. No death or treatment emergent serious adverse event occurred.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>For emergency department treatment of snakebites, the addition of varespladib to antivenom did not find evidence of difference for the primary outcome based on the SSS. A potentially promising signal of benefit was observed in patients initiating treatment within 5 hours of snakebite.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499837/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015375
Joachim Mariën, Eric Mukomena, Vivi Maketa Tevuzula, Herwig Leirs, Tine Huyse
Background: Despite worldwide efforts to eradicate malaria over the past century, the disease remains a significant challenge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) today. Climate change is even anticipated to worsen the situation in areas with higher altitudes and vulnerable populations. This study in Haut-Katanga, a highland region, aims to evaluate the effectiveness of past control measures and to explore the impact of climate change on the region's distinct seasonal malaria pattern throughout the last century.
Methods: We integrated colonial medical records (1917-1983) from two major mining companies (Union Minière du Haut-Katanga and the Générale des Carrières et des Mines) with contemporary data (2003-2020) from Lubumbashi. Concurrently, we combined colonial climate records (1912-1946) with recent data from satellite images and weather stations (1940-2023). We used Generalised Additive Models to link the two data sources and to test for changing seasonal patterns in transmission.
Results: Malaria transmission in Haut-Katanga has fluctuated significantly over the past century, influenced by evolving control strategies, political conditions and a changing climate. A notable decrease in cases followed the introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), while a surge occurred after the civil wars ended at the beginning of the new millennium. Recently, the malaria season began 1-2 months earlier than historically observed, likely due to a 2-5°C increase in mean minimum temperatures, which facilitates the sporogonic cycle of the parasite.
Conclusion: Despite contemporary control efforts, malaria incidence in Haut-Katanga is similar to levels observed in the 1930s, possibly influenced by climate change creating optimal conditions for malaria transmission. Our historical data shows that the lowest malaria incidence occurred during periods of intensive DDT use and indoor residual spraying. Consequently, we recommend the systematic reduction of vector populations as a key component of malaria control strategies in highland regions of sub-Saharan Africa.
背景:尽管在过去的一个世纪里,全世界都在努力根除疟疾,但如今在刚果民主共和国(刚果(金)),疟疾仍然是一项重大挑战。预计气候变化甚至会使海拔较高地区和易感人群的情况更加恶化。这项在高原地区上加丹加(Haut-Katanga)进行的研究旨在评估过去控制措施的有效性,并探讨气候变化在上个世纪对该地区独特的季节性疟疾模式的影响:我们整合了两大矿业公司(上加丹加矿业联盟和 Générale des Carrières et des Mines)的殖民时期医疗记录(1917-1983 年)和卢本巴希的当代数据(2003-2020 年)。同时,我们将殖民时期的气候记录(1912-1946 年)与卫星图像和气象站的最新数据(1940-2023 年)相结合。我们使用广义相加模型将这两个数据源联系起来,并检验传播中不断变化的季节性模式:上加丹加地区的疟疾传播在过去一个世纪中受到不断变化的控制策略、政治条件和气候变化的影响,出现了显著的波动。二氯二苯基三氯乙烷(DDT)问世后,病例明显减少,而在新千年伊始内战结束后,病例激增。最近,疟疾季节开始的时间比以往提前了 1-2 个月,这可能是由于平均最低气温上升了 2-5 摄氏度,从而促进了寄生虫的孢子周期:上加丹加地区的疟疾发病率与 20 世纪 30 年代的水平相似,这可能是受气候变化的影响,气候变化为疟疾传播创造了最佳条件。我们的历史数据显示,在密集使用滴滴涕和室内滞留喷洒期间,疟疾发病率最低。因此,我们建议有计划地减少病媒数量,将其作为撒哈拉以南非洲高原地区疟疾控制战略的关键组成部分。
{"title":"A century of medical records reveal earlier onset of the malaria season in Haut-Katanga induced by climate change.","authors":"Joachim Mariën, Eric Mukomena, Vivi Maketa Tevuzula, Herwig Leirs, Tine Huyse","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015375","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015375","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Despite worldwide efforts to eradicate malaria over the past century, the disease remains a significant challenge in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) today. Climate change is even anticipated to worsen the situation in areas with higher altitudes and vulnerable populations. This study in Haut-Katanga, a highland region, aims to evaluate the effectiveness of past control measures and to explore the impact of climate change on the region's distinct seasonal malaria pattern throughout the last century.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We integrated colonial medical records (1917-1983) from two major mining companies (Union Minière du Haut-Katanga and the Générale des Carrières et des Mines) with contemporary data (2003-2020) from Lubumbashi. Concurrently, we combined colonial climate records (1912-1946) with recent data from satellite images and weather stations (1940-2023). We used Generalised Additive Models to link the two data sources and to test for changing seasonal patterns in transmission.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Malaria transmission in Haut-Katanga has fluctuated significantly over the past century, influenced by evolving control strategies, political conditions and a changing climate. A notable decrease in cases followed the introduction of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT), while a surge occurred after the civil wars ended at the beginning of the new millennium. Recently, the malaria season began 1-2 months earlier than historically observed, likely due to a 2-5°C increase in mean minimum temperatures, which facilitates the sporogonic cycle of the parasite.</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Despite contemporary control efforts, malaria incidence in Haut-Katanga is similar to levels observed in the 1930s, possibly influenced by climate change creating optimal conditions for malaria transmission. Our historical data shows that the lowest malaria incidence occurred during periods of intensive DDT use and indoor residual spraying. Consequently, we recommend the systematic reduction of vector populations as a key component of malaria control strategies in highland regions of sub-Saharan Africa.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499855/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495129","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015165
André Janse van Rensburg, Nikiwe Hongo, Londiwe Mthethwa, Merridy Grant, Tasneem Kathree, Zamasomi Luvuno, Alim Leung, Arvin Bhana, Deepa Rao, Inge Petersen
Despite progress in the development and evaluation of evidence-based primary mental health interventions in low-income and middle-income countries, implementation and scale-up efforts have had mixed results. Considerable gaps remain in the effective translation of research knowledge into routine health system practices, largely due to real-world contextual constraints on implementation and scale-up efforts. The Southern African Research Consortium for Mental Health Integration (S-MhINT) programme used implementation research to strengthen the implementation of an evidence-based integrated collaborative depression care model for primary healthcare (PHC) services in South Africa. To facilitate the scale-up of this model from a testing site to the whole province of KwaZulu-Natal, a capacity building programme was embedded within the Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research (AHPSR) learning health systems (LHS) approach. The paper discusses efforts to scale up and embed case finding and referral elements of the S-MhINT package within routine PHC. Data from semistructured interviews, a focus group discussion, proceedings from participatory workshops and outputs from the application of continuous quality improvement (CQI) cycles were thematically analysed using the AHPSR LHS framework. Learning particularly occurred through information sharing at routine participatory workshops, which also offered mutual deliberation following periods of applying CQI tools to emergent problems. Individual-level, single-loop learning seemed to be particularly observable elements of the AHPSR LHS framework. Ultimately, our experience suggests that successful scale-up requires strong and sustained relationships between researchers, policy-makers and implementers, investments into learning platforms and organisational participation across all levels to ensure ownership and acceptance of learning processes.
{"title":"A learning health systems approach to scaling up an evidence-based intervention for integrated primary mental healthcare case finding and referral in South Africa.","authors":"André Janse van Rensburg, Nikiwe Hongo, Londiwe Mthethwa, Merridy Grant, Tasneem Kathree, Zamasomi Luvuno, Alim Leung, Arvin Bhana, Deepa Rao, Inge Petersen","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015165","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015165","url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Despite progress in the development and evaluation of evidence-based primary mental health interventions in low-income and middle-income countries, implementation and scale-up efforts have had mixed results. Considerable gaps remain in the effective translation of research knowledge into routine health system practices, largely due to real-world contextual constraints on implementation and scale-up efforts. The Southern African Research Consortium for Mental Health Integration (S-MhINT) programme used implementation research to strengthen the implementation of an evidence-based integrated collaborative depression care model for primary healthcare (PHC) services in South Africa. To facilitate the scale-up of this model from a testing site to the whole province of KwaZulu-Natal, a capacity building programme was embedded within the Alliance for Health Policy and Systems Research (AHPSR) learning health systems (LHS) approach. The paper discusses efforts to scale up and embed case finding and referral elements of the S-MhINT package within routine PHC. Data from semistructured interviews, a focus group discussion, proceedings from participatory workshops and outputs from the application of continuous quality improvement (CQI) cycles were thematically analysed using the AHPSR LHS framework. Learning particularly occurred through information sharing at routine participatory workshops, which also offered mutual deliberation following periods of applying CQI tools to emergent problems. Individual-level, single-loop learning seemed to be particularly observable elements of the AHPSR LHS framework. Ultimately, our experience suggests that successful scale-up requires strong and sustained relationships between researchers, policy-makers and implementers, investments into learning platforms and organisational participation across all levels to ensure ownership and acceptance of learning processes.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"9 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11499794/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495138","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-10-22DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015972
James Avoka Asamani, Kouadjo San Boris Bediakon, Mathieu Boniol, Joseph Kyalo Munga'tu, Francis Abande Akugri, Learnmore Lisa Muvango, Esther Diana Zziwa Bayiga, Christmal Dela Christmals, Sunny Okoroafor, Maritza Titus, Regina Titi-Ofei, Benard Gotora, Bernard Nkala, Adwoa Twumwaah Twum-Barimah, Jean Bernard Moussound, Richmond Sowah, Hillary Kipruto, Solyana Ngusbrhan Kidane, Benson Droti, Geoffrey Bisorborwa, Adam Ahmat, Ogochukwu Chukwujekwu, Joseph Waogodo Cabore, Kasonde Mwinga
Introduction: An adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for health, among other factors in the WHO Africa Region, has consistently resulted in underinvestment in HWF development, shortages of the HWF at the frontlines of service delivery and unemployment of qualified and trained health workers. This is further compounded by the ever-evolving disease burden and reduced access to essential health services along the continuum of health promotion, disease prevention, diagnostics, curative care, rehabilitation and palliative care.
Methods: A stock and flow model based on HWF stock in 2022, age structure, graduation and migration was conducted to project the available stock by 2030. To estimate the gap between the projected stock and the need, a population needs-based modelling was conducted to forecast the HWF needs by 2030. These estimations were conducted for all 47 countries in the WHO African Region. Combining the stock projection and needs-based estimation, the modelling framework included the stock of health workers, the population's need for health services, the need for health workers and gap analysis expressed as a needs-based shortage of health workers.
Results: The needs-based requirement for health workers in Africa was estimated to be 9.75 million in 2022, with an expected 21% increase to 11.8 million by 2030. The available health workers in 2022 covered 43% of the needs-based requirements and are anticipated to improve to 49% by 2030 if the current trajectory of training and education outputs is maintained. An increase of at least 40% in the stock of health workers between 2022 and 2030 is anticipated, but this increase would still leave a needs-based shortage of 6.1 million workers by 2030. Considering only the SDG 3.c.1 tracer occupations (medical doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and dentists), the projected needs-based shortage is 5.3 million by 2030. In sensitivity analysis, the needs-based shortage is most amenable to the prevalence of diseases/risk factors and professional standards for service delivery CONCLUSIONS: The WHO African Region would need to more than double its 2022 HWF stock if the growing population's health needs are to be adequately addressed. The present analysis offers new prospects to better plan HWF efforts considering country-specific HWF structure, and the burden of disease.
{"title":"Projected health workforce requirements and shortage for addressing the disease burden in the WHO Africa Region, 2022-2030: a needs-based modelling study.","authors":"James Avoka Asamani, Kouadjo San Boris Bediakon, Mathieu Boniol, Joseph Kyalo Munga'tu, Francis Abande Akugri, Learnmore Lisa Muvango, Esther Diana Zziwa Bayiga, Christmal Dela Christmals, Sunny Okoroafor, Maritza Titus, Regina Titi-Ofei, Benard Gotora, Bernard Nkala, Adwoa Twumwaah Twum-Barimah, Jean Bernard Moussound, Richmond Sowah, Hillary Kipruto, Solyana Ngusbrhan Kidane, Benson Droti, Geoffrey Bisorborwa, Adam Ahmat, Ogochukwu Chukwujekwu, Joseph Waogodo Cabore, Kasonde Mwinga","doi":"10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015972","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2024-015972","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Introduction: </strong>An adequate health workforce (HWF) is essential to achieving the targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG), including universal health coverage. However, weak HWF planning and constrained fiscal space for health, among other factors in the WHO Africa Region, has consistently resulted in underinvestment in HWF development, shortages of the HWF at the frontlines of service delivery and unemployment of qualified and trained health workers. This is further compounded by the ever-evolving disease burden and reduced access to essential health services along the continuum of health promotion, disease prevention, diagnostics, curative care, rehabilitation and palliative care.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A stock and flow model based on HWF stock in 2022, age structure, graduation and migration was conducted to project the available stock by 2030. To estimate the gap between the projected stock and the need, a population needs-based modelling was conducted to forecast the HWF needs by 2030. These estimations were conducted for all 47 countries in the WHO African Region. Combining the stock projection and needs-based estimation, the modelling framework included the stock of health workers, the population's need for health services, the need for health workers and gap analysis expressed as a needs-based shortage of health workers.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>The needs-based requirement for health workers in Africa was estimated to be 9.75 million in 2022, with an expected 21% increase to 11.8 million by 2030. The available health workers in 2022 covered 43% of the needs-based requirements and are anticipated to improve to 49% by 2030 if the current trajectory of training and education outputs is maintained. An increase of at least 40% in the stock of health workers between 2022 and 2030 is anticipated, but this increase would still leave a needs-based shortage of 6.1 million workers by 2030. Considering only the SDG 3.c.1 tracer occupations (medical doctors, nurses, midwives, pharmacists and dentists), the projected needs-based shortage is 5.3 million by 2030. In sensitivity analysis, the needs-based shortage is most amenable to the prevalence of diseases/risk factors and professional standards for service delivery CONCLUSIONS: The WHO African Region would need to more than double its 2022 HWF stock if the growing population's health needs are to be adequately addressed. The present analysis offers new prospects to better plan HWF efforts considering country-specific HWF structure, and the burden of disease.</p>","PeriodicalId":9137,"journal":{"name":"BMJ Global Health","volume":"7 Suppl 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":7.1,"publicationDate":"2024-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142495141","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}