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Application of ARIMA Models to Road Traffic Accident Cases in Ghana ARIMA模型在加纳道路交通事故案例中的应用
Pub Date : 2014-01-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20140405.03
R. Avuglah, K. A. Adu-Poku, E. Harris
Road traffic accident cases in Ghana are increasing at a fast rate and this has raised major concerns. The World Health Organization (WHO, 2001) report indicates that about 50 million people are injured on the roads and 1.2 million people are killed each year. This paper applies the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model to study the trends and patterns of road traffic accident cases in Ghana as well as makes a five- year forecast. An Annual accident data from 1991 to 2011 was obtained from the National Road Safety Commission and the Building and Road Research Institute in Ghana. The results showed that road traffic accident cases are increasing in Ghana. Models were subsequently developed for accident cases and ARIMA (0,2,1) was identified as the best model. A Five- year forecast was made using the best model and it showed that road traffic accident cases would continue to increase in Ghana.
加纳的道路交通事故案件正在迅速增加,这引起了重大关切。世界卫生组织(卫生组织,2001年)的报告指出,每年约有5 000万人在道路上受伤,120万人死亡。本文应用自回归综合移动平均(ARIMA)时间序列模型研究了加纳道路交通事故的趋势和模式,并进行了五年的预测。1991年至2011年的年度事故数据来自加纳国家道路安全委员会和建筑与道路研究所。结果表明,加纳的道路交通事故案件正在增加。随后建立了事故案例模型,ARIMA(0,2,1)被确定为最佳模型。使用最佳模型进行了五年预测,结果显示加纳的道路交通事故案件将继续增加。
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引用次数: 20
Topological Optimization and Genetic Algorithms Used in a Wheel Project for a Drone 拓扑优化与遗传算法在无人机轮毂设计中的应用
Pub Date : 2013-10-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20130305.02
D. C. D. Souza, S. L. M. R. Filho, A. L. C. D. Carvalho, N. Silva, S. Barcelos, A. Christoforo
The study of the structural components of an aircraft such as landing gear, wheel and triquilha are elements that undergo constant changes, depending on the project requirement and efforts. A mong these mechanisms stands the wheel, because it is the element that makes the connection between aircraft and ground. Designed to withstand small di splacements and strains without losing its characteristics, is an element in wh ich studies with software using the Fin ite Element Method are present and important to better design component. The development of an Aeronautical Design, since its inception, detailed design and construction is a major challenge to the designer by the intense comp lexity of aerodynamic factors and dimensional parameters, integrated to a large mu ltid isciplinary. The present study aimed to use topological optimization processes present in Ansys ® software coupled with genetic algorith ms and statistical methods, software ModeFrontier®, analyze and get an optimal fo rm for the wheels used in aircraft cargo to Aerodesign SA E co mpetit ions. Bound methods allo wed a reduction of 40% co mpared to previous projects and found that the structural parameter Lane Width is that present the most influence on the mechanical performance of the aircraft.
飞机结构部件的研究,如起落架,轮子和三轴架是不断变化的元素,这取决于项目的要求和努力。在这些机构中,轮子是其中之一,因为它是连接飞机和地面的元件。设计为承受小位移和应变而不失去其特性,是使用有限元方法的软件研究的一个元素,对于更好地设计组件很重要。航空设计的发展,从一开始,详细设计和施工是一个主要的挑战,设计师的空气动力学因素和尺寸参数的高度复杂性,集成到一个大的多学科。本研究旨在利用Ansys®软件中的拓扑优化过程,结合遗传算法ms和统计方法ModeFrontier®软件,分析并获得用于航空设计公司竞争的飞机货运车轮的最佳形状。与以前的项目相比,约束方法允许减少40%,并发现结构参数车道宽度对飞机的机械性能影响最大。
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引用次数: 2
Evaluation of Dimensional and Aerodynamic Parameters for an Aircraft Radio Controlled through Genetic Algorithms and Design of Experiments 基于遗传算法的飞机无线电控制尺寸及气动参数评估与实验设计
Pub Date : 2013-06-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20130303.04
D. Amorim, C. D. Souza, A. Luis, Sergio Luiz Moni, Ribeiro Filho, F. Lahr, A. Christoforo
This paper presents a study of aircraft configuration TKV2012 that is more optimized as possible in all aspects of stage length, questions and restrictions established by the SAE Co mpetit ion BRAZIL Aero Design 2012. The analytical method for estimation of the aircraft aerodynamic coefficients was performed using the linear appro ximation to the theory of Multhopp. Design of Experiments (DOE) was used integrated into the genetic algorith m through the interface ModeFRONTIER®, version 4.3, the company Esteco®. We used the algorithm and Planning SOBOL MOGA II, with about 28 input variables, given the requirements: project report (containing plants and forecast payload), oral presentation, maximu m loaded weight, high structural efficiency, "accuracy" Predict ion Weight Loaded (Accuracy Project) and bonuses. The primary outcome variab le was the total score, since the goal was to maximize their. The results allowed to identify and optimize the d imensional parameters of the aircraft, as well as signaling the main factors that influence the total score, helping to define the configuration of the aircraft 2012.
本文介绍了一种飞机构型TKV2012的研究,该构型在SAE公司2012年巴西航空设计竞赛中建立的阶段长度、问题和限制等各个方面都尽可能地进行了优化。利用Multhopp理论的线性逼近,给出了飞机气动系数的解析估计方法。实验设计(DOE)通过Esteco®公司的modelfrontier®4.3版接口集成到遗传算法m中。我们使用了算法和Planning SOBOL MOGA II,有大约28个输入变量,给出了如下要求:项目报告(包含植物和预测载荷)、口头陈述、最大载荷、高结构效率、“准确性”预测载荷(准确性项目)和奖金。主要的结果变量是总分,因为目标是最大化他们的得分。结果允许识别和优化飞机的尺寸参数,以及信号的主要因素,影响总分,帮助确定飞机的配置2012。
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引用次数: 0
A Class of Modified Ratio Estimators Using Deciles of an Auxiliary Variable 一类利用辅助变量十分位数的修正比率估计
Pub Date : 2013-01-07 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120206.02
J. Subramani, G. Kumarapandiyan
In the past, a number of modified ratio estimators are suggested for estimation of the population mean of the study variable using Co-efficient of Variation, Co-efficient of Kurtosis, Co-efficient of Skewness, Population Correlation Coefficient, Median, Quartile and their linear combinations of the auxiliary variable. However no attempt is made to use the deciles, which are more generalized version of quartiles and Median. Hence an attempt is made in this paper to use the deciles in the modified ratio estimators for estimation of population mean of the study variable when the population deciles of the auxiliary variable are known. The biases and the mean squared errors of the proposed estimators are derived and are compared with that of existing modified ratio estimators for certain known populations. Further we have also derived the conditions for which the proposed estimators perform better than the existing modified ratio estimators. From the numerical study it is observed that the proposed modified ratio estimators perform better than the existing modified ratio estimators.
过去,人们提出了一些改进的比率估计量,利用变异系数、峰度系数、偏度系数、总体相关系数、中位数、四分位数及其辅助变量的线性组合来估计研究变量的总体均值。然而,没有尝试使用十分位数,这是四分位数和中位数的更广义的版本。因此,本文尝试在辅助变量的总体十分位数已知的情况下,利用修正比率估计器中的十分位数来估计研究变量的总体均值。推导了所提估计量的偏置和均方误差,并对某些已知总体与已有的修正比率估计量进行了比较。此外,我们还推导了所提估计量优于现有修正比率估计量的条件。数值研究表明,所提出的改进比率估计器比现有的改进比率估计器性能更好。
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引用次数: 13
Multi Response Optimization of Simultaneous Fixation of Reactive Printing and Crease Resistant Finishing Using Desirability Function 利用期望函数优化反应印花与抗折皱整理同时固定的多响应优化
Pub Date : 2013-01-07 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120206.06
Fareha Asim, M. Mahmood
The single step fixation process for reactive printing and crease resistant finishing of cotton fabric with four potential factors namely; concentrations of dye and crease resistant, fixation method and temperature has been statistically analysed in this work. The optimum conditions of factors and levels of simultaneous fixation have been explored. A single step process for reactive printing and crease resistant finishing of cotton fabric is described. Evaluations of the process were made with respect to K/S, dry and wet crease recovery, tensile and tear strength, fastness to washing, light & rubbing, resistance to abrasion and pilling. An Econtrol fixation at a temperature of 145℃ was proved to be efficient for imparting single-step reactive print fixation and crease resistant finishing to cotton fabric.
具有四个潜在因素的棉织物活性印花抗折皱整理单步固定工艺;对染色浓度、抗皱性、固定方法和温度进行了统计分析。探讨了各因素的最佳条件和同时固定的水平。介绍了一种棉织物活性印花及抗折皱整理的单步工艺。对该工艺进行了K/S、干湿折痕恢复、拉伸和撕裂强度、耐洗涤、耐光和耐摩擦、耐磨损和起球等方面的评价。在145℃的温度下进行控制固定,对棉织物进行单步反应印花固定和抗折皱整理是有效的。
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引用次数: 2
Reliability Estimation and Confidence-interval for Two-unit System in the Presence of Common Cause Failures and Human Errors 存在共因故障和人为错误的双单元系统可靠性估计和置信区间
Pub Date : 2013-01-07 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120206.04
G. Sagar
This paper discusses the estimation of reliability measures of two unit system with identical components in the presence of chance Common Cause Shock (CCS) failures as well as human errors. The Maximum likelihood (M L) approach has been followed for the present model. The M L estimates of system reliability measures like reliability function(R(t)), mean time between failures (MTBF) were developed. The estimates were derived for both series and parallel systems. We also developed the confidence interval for the present study. The empirical evidence was developed by using Monte-Carlo simulation for selected values of the failure and repair rates to establish the validity and precision of the M L estimates of the above said reliability measures.
本文讨论了在偶发共因冲击(CCS)故障和人为错误存在的情况下,具有相同部件的两个机组系统可靠性测度的估计问题。本模型采用了最大似然(ml)方法。提出了可靠性函数R(t)、平均故障间隔时间(MTBF)等系统可靠性测度的M - L估计。对串联和并联系统均进行了估计。我们还制定了本研究的置信区间。经验证据是通过蒙特卡罗模拟的选择值的故障率和修复率来建立的有效性和精度的M L估计上述可靠性措施。
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引用次数: 1
Optimum Step Stress Accelerated Life Testing For Rayleigh Distribution 瑞利分布的最佳阶跃应力加速寿命试验
Pub Date : 2013-01-07 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120206.05
S. Saxena, S. Zarrin, M. Kamal, Arif-ul-Islam
Accelerated testing is needed when testing even large sample sizes at use stress would yield few or no failures within a reasonable time. The step-stress accelerated life test is used to increase the stress levels at fixed times during the experiment. Th is paper deals with the problem of designing an optimu m step stress accelerated life test for Rayleigh distribution. The scale parameter of the distribution is assumed to be a log linear function of stress. The maximu m likelihood estimates of the parameters under consideration are obtained. Interval estimation that generates narrow intervals to the unknown parameters of the distribution with high probability is obtained. Optimizat ion criterion is also discussed and simu lation results are obtained to explain the techniques used in the paper.
当在合理的时间内,即使在使用应力下测试大的样品尺寸也会产生很少或没有故障时,加速测试是需要的。采用步进应力加速寿命试验,在实验过程中按固定时间增加应力水平。本文研究了瑞利分布的最优m阶应力加速寿命试验设计问题。假设分布的尺度参数是应力的对数线性函数。得到了所考虑参数的最大似然估计。得到了对高概率分布的未知参数产生窄区间的区间估计。文中还讨论了优化准则,并给出了仿真结果来说明本文所采用的技术。
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引用次数: 9
Bayesian Sequential Estimation of Proportion of Orthopaedic Surgery Among Different Age Groups: A Case Study of National Orthopaedic Hospital, Igbobi-Nigeria 不同年龄组骨科手术比例的贝叶斯序列估计——以尼日利亚伊博比国立骨科医院为例
Pub Date : 2013-01-07 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120206.03
R. Ogundeji, A. J. Adewara, T. Nurudeen
Bayesian methods provide more intuitive and meaningful inferences than likelihood-only based inferences. This is simply because Bayesian approach includes prior information as well as likelihood. In empirical Bayes (EB) methodology, we use data to help determine the prior through estimation of the so-called hyperparameters. In this paper, a Bayesian model called Beta-binomial conjugate model is employed using Bayesian sequential estimation method to estimate the proportion of different age groups attended to at the National Orthopaedic hospital, Igbobi, Nigeria. Over the years results show that the highest number of patients at the hospital is within the age group 15 to 44 years but with the smallest proportion of orthopaedic surgeries. Similarly, smallest the numbers of patients are among the age group less than one year and greater than 64 years but with highest proportion of orthopaedic surgeries. Also, overall EB proportion of patients admitted for orthopaedic surgeries in the hospital across the age groups increased steadily. Finally, the results of the comparative analysis of the sample and EB proportions show that the EB estimators are better estimators on the basis of efficiency and consistency.
贝叶斯方法提供了比仅基于似然的推断更直观、更有意义的推断。这是因为贝叶斯方法包括先验信息和可能性。在经验贝叶斯(EB)方法中,我们使用数据来帮助通过估计所谓的超参数来确定先验。本文采用贝叶斯序贯估计方法,采用β -二项共轭贝叶斯模型估计尼日利亚伊博比国立骨科医院不同年龄组就诊比例。多年来的结果表明,医院的患者人数最多的是15至44岁年龄组,但骨科手术的比例最小。同样,年龄小于1岁至大于64岁的患者数量最少,但骨科手术比例最高。此外,各年龄组住院骨科手术患者的EB总体比例稳步上升。最后,样品和EB比例的对比分析结果表明,EB估计器在效率和一致性方面是较好的估计器。
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引用次数: 3
The Methodology on Statistical Analysis of Data Transformation for Model Development 模型开发中数据转换的统计分析方法
Pub Date : 2013-01-07 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120206.01
J. Diah, J. Ahmad, Mazidah Mukri
Generally, the main idea of this paper is attempt to give some idea for the researchers with different fields who want to make their own model based on the multiple regression of data transformation model. There is always being problems for researchers who want to perform their significant statistic analysis with different type of model equation (e.g. by using exponential, square root and etc.). Consequently, by following the steps of statistical methodology that given in this paper, the researcher should be able to create the calibration and validation model for their research purposed. Hence, the model developed can be use with sensitivity analysis with the appropriate variables that had been selected. Finally the chart, concept or theory can be further developed based on final multiple regression of data transformation model.
总的来说,本文的主要思想是试图为不同领域的研究者在数据转换模型的多元回归基础上建立自己的模型提供一些思路。对于想要使用不同类型的模型方程(例如使用指数、平方根等)进行显著性统计分析的研究人员来说,总是存在问题。因此,通过遵循本文给出的统计方法的步骤,研究人员应该能够为他们的研究目的创建校准和验证模型。因此,所开发的模型可以使用已选择的适当变量进行敏感性分析。最后,基于最终的数据转换模型的多元回归,可以进一步发展图表、概念或理论。
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引用次数: 8
On Line Computation of Process Capability Indices 工艺能力指标的在线计算
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120205.06
J. Subramani, S. Balamurali
Statistical process control tools and techniques are widely used in assessing and monitoring manufacturing process. Effective imp lementation of statistical process control tools will improve the productivity and quality; reduce the wastage and improve the business together with various other benefits. Process capability indices are very well used to assess the performance of the production process. However the problem is to keep the produced items in the inventory until to take a decision on the acceptance of the lots based on the outcome of the process capability analysis. An attempt has been made in this paper to overcome such difficulties. As a result we have presented a simple method to assess the process capability indices on line itself, wh ich helps the process as well as the quality engineers to take an instant decision on the manufacturing process whether the process has to be allowed further or to be modified. The method is explained with the help of illustrations.
统计过程控制工具和技术被广泛用于评估和监控制造过程。有效实施统计过程控制工具将提高生产效率和质量;减少浪费,改善业务,同时获得各种其他利益。过程能力指标可以很好地用于评价生产过程的性能。然而,问题是在根据过程能力分析的结果决定是否接受这批产品之前,如何将已生产的产品保留在库存中。本文试图克服这些困难。因此,我们提出了一种简单的方法来在线评估过程能力指数,这有助于过程以及质量工程师对制造过程做出即时决定,是否允许进一步或修改过程。并结合实例对该方法进行了说明。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
International journal of statistics and applications
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