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Estimation of Total Fertility Rate and Birth Averted due to Contraception: Regression Approach 估计总生育率和避孕避免生育:回归方法
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120205.01
K. K. Singh, Brijesh P Singh, Kushagra Gupta, S. Dst-Cim
Fert ility plays an important ro le in any demographic transition and total fert ility rate (TFR) is one of the basic measurements of fert ility. Due to non-availability of co mp lete and reliable data, a large nu mber of indirect techniques have been developed to estimate the demographic parameters with incomp lete data. So me of these techniques are based on utilizing the data fro m stable population theory while others are based on the regression technique in which the parameters are estimated through regression equations between the dependent variable which is the TFR and the independent variables which is the socio economic well as demographic variables. In the present paper an indirect method has been proposed to estimate the TFR using regression analysis. In these types of analysis the most serious problem is the choice of predictor variable. If the choice of predictor variab le is good then it gives the better estimate for the dependent variable (TFR). Using new predictor variab le (proposed in this paper), the improved model exp lained about 85 percent of the variation in TFR. The findings reveal that the values of TFR calculated by the present method are quite close to the observed values of the TFR without involving much computational comp lexities at state level for different background characteristics. By using this modified estimate of TFR, the demographers can easily calculate the birth averted for different regions as well as states also.
生育率在任何人口转型中都起着重要的作用,总生育率是衡量生育率的基本指标之一。由于无法获得完整的信件和可靠的数据,大量的间接技术已被开发用于估计不完整信件数据的人口统计参数。所以这些技术中有一些是基于利用稳定人口理论的数据,而另一些是基于回归技术,其中参数是通过回归方程来估计的因变量是TFR和自变量是社会经济和人口变量。本文提出了一种利用回归分析估算总生育率的间接方法。在这些类型的分析中,最严重的问题是预测变量的选择。如果预测变量的选择是好的,那么它给出了更好的估计因变量(TFR)。使用新的预测变量(本文提出),改进的模型可以预测约85%的TFR变化。研究结果表明,该方法计算的TFR值与观测值非常接近,并且在不同背景特征下不涉及太多的状态计算复杂度。利用这一修正的TFR估计,人口学家可以很容易地计算出不同地区和州的避免生育。
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引用次数: 10
Variance Estimation Using Quartiles and their Functions of an Auxiliary Variable 使用辅助变量的四分位数及其函数进行方差估计
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120205.04
J. Subramani, G. Kumarapandiyan
In this paper we have proposed a class of modified ratio type variance estimators for estimation of population variance of the study variable using Quartiles and their functions of the auxiliary variable are known. The biases and mean squared errors of the proposed estimators are obtained and also derived the conditions for which the proposed estimators perform better than the traditional ratio type variance estimator and existing modified ratio type variance estimators. Further we have compared the proposed estimators with that of traditional ratio type variance estimator and existing modified ratio type variance estimators for certain known populations. From the numerical study it is observed that the proposed estimators perform better than the traditional ratio type variance estimator and existing modified ratio type variance estimators.
本文提出了一类修正比率型方差估计器,用于用四分位数估计研究变量的总体方差,并且它们的辅助变量函数是已知的。得到了所提估计量的偏置和均方误差,并推导了所提估计量优于传统比率型方差估计量和现有修正比率型方差估计量的条件。在此基础上,我们还将所提出的估计量与传统的比率型方差估计量和现有的修正比率型方差估计量进行了比较。数值研究表明,该估计量比传统的比率型方差估计量和现有的修正比率型方差估计量具有更好的估计性能。
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引用次数: 60
Analysis of Categorical Panel Data 分类面板数据分析
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120205.02
A. Adejumo, O. O. Sanni, E. Jolayemi, R. O. Ogedengbe
s In some categorical tables, one of the classifying variables may be at least ordinal (ran ked) arising fro m a follow-up o r any similar study. The other classifying variab le(s) may be that which separates the population into groups using variables such as gender, race or location, or a co mbination of some of them. The counts obtained this way are analyzed recognizing that one of the variables is nearly metric and must be used and interpretation becomes easier when appropriate model is fitted to the arising product multino mial. An examp le o f such an approach is provided using the data fro m Tuber- culosis Management in a Teaching Hospital. We observed that the recovery rate of females was faster than their males counterpart on the assumption that those discharged through management system follows an exponential distribution.
在某些分类表中,其中一个分类变量可能至少是有序的(连续的),这是由后续研究或任何类似研究引起的。其他分类变量可能是使用诸如性别、种族或地理位置等变量将人口划分为不同群体的变量,或者其中一些变量的组合。对这种方法得到的计数进行分析,认识到其中一个变量是近度量的,必须使用,并且当对产生的乘积多项拟合适当的模型时,解释变得容易。本文以某教学医院结核管理为例,介绍了该方法的应用情况。我们观察到,假设通过管理系统排出的水呈指数分布,雌虫的恢复速度比雄虫快。
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引用次数: 0
A Note on Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Scale Parameter of Log Gamma Distribution 对数分布尺度参数的贝叶斯估计和极大似然估计
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120205.05
N. Feroze, M. Aslam
In this paper, the prob lem o f estimating the scale parameter of log gamma distribution under Bayesian and maximu m likelihood framework has been addressed. The uniform and Jeffreys priors have been assumed for posterior analysis. The Bayes estimators and associated risks have been derived under five different loss functions. The credible intervals and highest posterior density intervals have been constructed under each prior. A simulat ion study has been carried out to illustrate the numerical applicat ions of the results and to compare the performance of different estimators. The purpose is to compare the performance of the estimators based on Bayesian and maximu m likelihood framewo rks. The performance of different Bayes estimators has also been compared using five d ifferent loss functions. The study indicated that for estimation of the said parameter, the Bayesian estimation can be preferred over maximu m likelihood estimation. While in case of the Bayesian estimation, the entropy loss function under Jeffreys can effectively be emp loyed.
本文研究了在贝叶斯和极大似然框架下对数分布尺度参数的估计问题。后验分析假设了均匀和杰弗里斯先验。给出了五种不同损失函数下的贝叶斯估计量和相关风险。在每个先验条件下构造了可信区间和最高后验密度区间。为了说明结果的数值应用,并比较不同估计器的性能,进行了仿真研究。目的是比较基于贝叶斯和最大似然框架的估计器的性能。用五种不同的损失函数比较了不同贝叶斯估计器的性能。研究表明,对于上述参数的估计,贝叶斯估计优于极大似然估计。而对于贝叶斯估计,则可以有效地利用Jeffreys下的熵损失函数。
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引用次数: 1
Weibull Geometric Process Model for the Analysis of Accelerated Life Testing with Complete Data 全数据加速寿命试验分析的Weibull几何过程模型
Pub Date : 2012-12-01 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120205.03
M. Kamal, S. Zarrin, S. Saxena, Arif-ul-Islam
In this paper the Weibull geo metric process model is utilized for the analysis of accelerated life testing under constant stress. By assuming that the lifetimes under increasing stress levels form a geometric process, the maximu m like lihood estimates of the parameters and their confidence intervals (CIs) using both asymptotic and parametric bootstrap method are derived. The performance of the estimators is evaluated by a simu lation study with different pre-fixed parameters. This paper also compares the geometric process model with the traditional log-linear model. A simulation study is also performed to co mpare the performances of the geometric model and the log-linear model.
本文将威布尔几何过程模型用于恒应力加速寿命试验的分析。通过假设应力水平增加下的寿命形成几何过程,利用渐近和参数自举方法导出了参数及其置信区间(ci)的最大似然似然估计。通过不同预固定参数的仿真研究,对估计器的性能进行了评价。并将几何过程模型与传统的对数线性模型进行了比较。通过仿真研究,比较了几何模型和对数线性模型的性能。
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引用次数: 15
Evaluation and Comparison of Diagnostic Test Performance Based on Information Theory 基于信息论的诊断试验性能评价与比较
Pub Date : 2012-08-31 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20110101.03
Özlem Ege Oruç, Armağan Kanca
A fundamental concept of information theory, relative entropy and mutual information, is directly applicable to evaluation of diagnostic test performance. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how basic concepts in information theory apply to the problem of quantifying major depressive disorder diagnostic test performance. In this study, the per- formances of the Dexamethasone Suppression Test-DST and the Thyroid-Stimulating Hormone Test-TSH, two of the di- agnosis tests of Major Depressive Disorder, are evaluated with the method of Information Theory. The amount of informa- tion gained by performing a diagnostic test can be quantified by calculating the relative entropy between the posttest and pretest probability distributions. And also demonstrates that diagnostic test performance can be quantified as the average amount of information the test result provides about the disease state. It is aimed that this study will hopefully give various points of view to the researchers who want to make research on this subject by explaining how the tests used for the diag- nosis of various diseases are evaluated with this way.
信息论的一个基本概念,即相对熵和互信息,直接适用于诊断测试性能的评估。本研究的目的是展示信息论的基本概念如何应用于量化重度抑郁症诊断测试表现的问题。本研究运用信息论的方法对重度抑郁症的两项诊断测试——地塞米松抑制测试(dst)和促甲状腺激素测试(tsh)的表现进行评价。通过执行诊断测试获得的信息量可以通过计算测试后和测试前概率分布之间的相对熵来量化。并且还证明了诊断测试性能可以量化为测试结果提供的关于疾病状态的平均信息量。本研究旨在通过解释如何用这种方法评估用于各种疾病诊断的测试,为想要研究这一主题的研究人员提供不同的观点。
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引用次数: 5
Independent Component Analysis Using Maximization of L-Kurtosis 利用l -峰度最大化的独立成分分析
Pub Date : 2012-08-31 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120202.01
B. Hazra
This paper presents a new approach towards independent component analysis (ICA) for small samples of data, utilizing the linear combination of expectations of order statistics, also termed as L-moments. The main advantage of using L-moments is the relatively low bias in their estimation for small samples compared to the conventional moments. In the present work, arguments leading to kurtosis maximization ICA are first explored and a criterion based on the maximization of L-kurtosis is developed. The optimality criterion based on the extraction of a single source is then assessed. The independent components of the mixture are extracted sequentially using a deflationary approach. The quality of separation of independent components from a mixture is re-interpreted in terms of the distribution parameters of the recovered sources. The robustness of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through simulation examples of separation of 2-source mixtures, a large-scale problem and a case study from health monitoring of civil structures.
本文提出了一种针对小样本数据的独立成分分析(ICA)的新方法,利用顺序统计量的期望的线性组合,也称为l -矩。与传统矩相比,使用l矩的主要优点是对小样本的估计偏差相对较低。在本工作中,首先探讨了导致峰度最大化的论据,并提出了一个基于l -峰度最大化的准则。然后评估基于单个源提取的最优性准则。使用通货紧缩方法依次提取混合物的独立成分。根据回收源的分布参数重新解释了从混合物中分离独立组分的质量。通过对两源混合分离、大规模问题和土木结构健康监测实例的仿真研究,证明了该算法的鲁棒性。
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引用次数: 0
Characteristic Reliability Measures of Mixed Standby Components and Asymptotic Estimation 混合备用部件的特征可靠性测度与渐近估计
Pub Date : 2012-08-31 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20120203.01
M. S. El-Sherbeny, E. K. Al-Hussaini
In this paper, we investigate the reliability measures: availability () T A ∞ and mean time to system failure MTTF , for four configurations of series systems with mixed standby components: cold and warm. The time to repair and to failure for each of the operative and warm standby components are assumed to follow the exponential distribution. Com- parisons of the computed MTTF 's and steady state availabilities () T A ∞ for the four configurations are obtained for specific values of distribution parameters and cost of the components. The configurations are then ranked based on MTTF , () T A ∞ and cost/ benefit, where benefit is either MTTF or () T A ∞ . Asymptotic estimation of MTTF , () T A ∞ and cost/ benefit are computed for the optimal systems.
本文研究了具有冷、暖混合备用组件的串联系统的4种配置的可靠性度量:可用性()T A∞和平均系统故障前时间MTTF。假定每个工作部件和热备用部件的维修时间和故障时间遵循指数分布。在给定分布参数和元件成本的情况下,得到了四种配置下计算得到的MTTF和稳态可用性()T A∞的比较。然后根据MTTF、()T A∞和成本/收益对配置进行排序,其中收益为MTTF或()T A∞。对最优系统进行了MTTF、()T A∞和成本/效益的渐近估计。
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引用次数: 6
Nigeria’s Oilboom Period (1973-1983): Was Agriculture Really Neglected? 尼日利亚石油繁荣时期(1973-1983):农业真的被忽视了吗?
Pub Date : 2012-08-31 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20110101.02
A. Ammani
Over the years several authors have attributed the decline in Nigerian agricultural production to the neglect of the agricultural sector that resulted from the discovery of crude oil, what is known as the oilboom factor. This paper set out to find answer to the question: was agriculture really neglected as a result of the oilboom? The study took a historical per- spective to trace the path of capital expenditure allocations to the agricultural sector in Nigeria. Secondary data on planned capital expenditure allocation to the agriculture sector before and during the oilboom period; and the budget estimates of capital expenditure allocations to the Agriculture, Water Resources, Health, Education and Defence sectors in Nigeria during the oil boom period 1977-1983 were sourced and used. Graphic descriptive statistics and the one-way analysis of variance technique were used to achieve the objectives of the study. The Tukey's Multiple Comparison method w as employed to determine which mean(s) differ, in both cases, in the one-way analysis of variance tests conducted. The empirical findings of the study indicate significant increase in the quantity of capital expenditure allocation to the agriculture sector during the oilboom period; and that more capital expenditure was allocated to the agriculture sector than was allocated to either of Health, Education or Defence sectors in Nigeria during the oilboom period. Thus, it concluded that the decline in agricultural production in Nigeria was, statistically, not attributable to the neglect of the agricultural sector resulting from oil boom. The reason could be as a manifestation of Dutch Disease, Natural Resource Curse, Rent Seeking phenomenom, or something else.
多年来,几位作者将尼日利亚农业生产的下降归因于原油发现导致农业部门被忽视,即所谓的石油繁荣因素。这篇论文的目的是寻找这个问题的答案:农业真的因为石油繁荣而被忽视了吗?该研究从历史角度追溯了尼日利亚农业部门资本支出分配的路径。在石油繁荣时期之前和期间,农业部门计划资本支出分配的次要数据;以及1977-1983年石油繁荣时期尼日利亚农业、水资源、卫生、教育和国防部门资本支出拨款的预算估计数的来源和使用。使用图形描述性统计和单向方差分析技术来实现研究目标。在进行的方差检验的单向分析中,Tukey的多重比较方法被用来确定在这两种情况下哪个平均值不同。实证研究结果表明,石油繁荣时期农业部门的资本支出配置数量显著增加;在石油繁荣时期,分配给农业部门的资本支出比分配给尼日利亚卫生、教育或国防部门的资本支出都多。因此,它的结论是,尼日利亚农业生产的下降在统计上不能归因于石油繁荣造成的对农业部门的忽视。其原因可能是荷兰病、自然资源诅咒、寻租现象或其他原因。
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引用次数: 20
Modeling of Diabetic Patients Associated with Age: Polynomial Model Approach 糖尿病患者与年龄相关的建模:多项式模型方法
Pub Date : 2012-08-31 DOI: 10.5923/J.STATISTICS.20110101.01
M. Islam
Diabetes mellitus is a set of diseases that involves troubles with the hormone insulin. It is characterized by chronic elevation of blood glucose level exceeding normal value. In this paper, an effort has been made to fit mathematical model to diabetic patients as well as its cumulative distribution for both sexes associated with age of Rajshahi City in Bangladesh. For this purpose, the data have been taken from Noor (2008). In this study, an attempt has been given attention to show that the polynomial model is tried to fit to the distribution of diabetic patients associated with age as well as its cu- mulative distribution. It is found that the distribution of diabetic patients for both sexes associated with age follows bi-quadratic polynomial model. Moreover, it is investigated that cumulative distribution of diabetic patients follow cubic polynomial model. Cross validity prediction power is employed to the fitted model to verify the stability of the model in this manuscript.
糖尿病是一组与胰岛素激素有关的疾病。其特点是血糖水平长期升高,超过正常值。本文拟合了孟加拉国拉杰沙希市糖尿病患者的数学模型及其与年龄相关的两性累积分布。为此,数据取自Noor(2008)。在本研究中,我们注意到多项式模型试图拟合糖尿病患者的年龄分布及其累积分布。研究发现,男女糖尿病患者的分布与年龄的关系符合双二次多项式模型。此外,研究了糖尿病患者的累积分布遵循三次多项式模型。本文对拟合模型采用交叉效度预测力来验证模型的稳定性。
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引用次数: 15
期刊
International journal of statistics and applications
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