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Estimating Measurement Error in SIPP Annual Job Earnings: A Comparison of Census Bureau Survey and SSA Administrative Data SIPP年度工作收入测量误差估计:人口普查局调查与SSA行政数据的比较
Pub Date : 2011-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1894690
J. Abowd, Martha Harrison Stinson
We quantify sources of variation in annual job earnings data collected by the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to determine how much of the variation is the result of measurement error. Jobs reported in the SIPP are linked to jobs reported in an administrative database, the Detailed Earnings Records (DER) drawn from the Social Security Administration’s Master Earnings File, a universe file of all earnings reported on W-2 tax forms. As a result of the match, each job potentially has two earnings observations per year: survey and administrative. Unlike previous validation studies, both of these earnings measures are viewed as noisy measures of some underlying true amount of annual earnings. While the existence of survey error resulting from respondent mistakes or misinterpretation is widely accepted, the idea that administrative data are also error-prone is new. Possible sources of employer reporting error, employee under-reporting of compensation such as tips, and general differences between how earnings may be reported on tax forms and in surveys, necessitates the discarding of the assumption that administrative data are a true measure of the quantity that the survey was designed to collect. In addition, errors in matching SIPP and DER jobs, a necessary task in any use of administrative data, also contribute to measurement error in both earnings variables. We begin by comparing SIPP and DER earnings for different demographic and education groups of SIPP respondents. We also calculate different measures of changes in earnings for individuals switching jobs. We estimate a standard earnings equation model using SIPP and DER earnings and compare the resulting coefficients. Finally exploiting the presence of individuals with multiple jobs and shared employers over time, we estimate an econometric model that includes random person and firm effects, a common error component shared by SIPP and DER earnings, and two independent error components that represent the variation unique to each earnings measure. We compare the variance components from this model and consider how the DER and SIPP differ across unobservable components.
我们量化了收入和计划参与调查(SIPP)收集的年度工作收入数据的变化来源,以确定有多少变化是测量误差的结果。SIPP中报告的工作与行政数据库中报告的工作相关联,该数据库是来自社会保障局总收入档案的详细收入记录(DER),该档案是W-2税表上报告的所有收入的通用文件。由于这种匹配,每个工作每年都可能有两次收入观察:调查和行政。与之前的验证研究不同,这两种收益指标都被视为一些潜在真实年度收益的嘈杂指标。虽然由于应答者的错误或误解而导致的调查错误的存在被广泛接受,但行政数据也容易出错的想法是新的。雇主报告错误的可能来源,雇员少报小费等报酬,以及在报税表和调查中报告收入的方式之间的普遍差异,都需要抛弃行政数据是调查旨在收集的数量的真实衡量标准的假设。此外,匹配SIPP和DER工作的错误(任何使用行政数据的必要任务)也会导致两个收入变量的测量误差。我们首先比较SIPP调查对象中不同人口和教育群体的SIPP和DER收入。我们还计算了个人换工作时收入变化的不同衡量标准。我们使用SIPP和DER收益估计标准收益方程模型,并比较所得系数。最后,利用长期存在的多份工作和共同雇主的个体,我们估计了一个计量经济模型,该模型包括随机个人和企业效应、SIPP和DER收入共有的一个常见误差成分,以及代表每个收入测量独特变化的两个独立误差成分。我们比较了该模型的方差成分,并考虑了DER和SIPP在不可观测成分之间的差异。
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引用次数: 46
LEHD Infrastructure Files in the Census RDC: Overview of S2004 Snapshot 人口普查数据中心内的LEHD基础设施档案:2004年概览
Pub Date : 2011-04-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1809948
Kevin McKinney, L. Vilhuber
The Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program at the U.S. Census Bureau, with the support of several national research agencies, has built a set of infrastructure files using administrative data provided by state agencies, enhanced with information from other administrative data sources, demographic and economic (business) surveys and censuses. The LEHD Infrastructure Files provide a detailed and comprehensive picture of workers, employers, and their interaction in the U.S. economy. This document describes the structure and content of the 2004 Snapshot of the LEHD Infrastructure files as they are made available in the Census Bureau’s Research Data Center network.
美国人口普查局的纵向雇主-家庭动态(LEHD)项目在几个国家研究机构的支持下,利用州机构提供的行政数据建立了一套基础设施文件,并利用其他行政数据源、人口和经济(商业)调查和人口普查的信息进行了增强。LEHD基础设施文件提供了工人、雇主及其在美国经济中的相互作用的详细和全面的图景。本文件描述了2004年LEHD基础设施快照文件的结构和内容,这些文件已在人口普查局的研究数据中心网络上提供。
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引用次数: 27
Local Manufacturing Establishments and the Earnings of Manufacturing Workers: Insights from Matched Employer-Employee Data 本地制造业机构和制造业工人的收入:来自匹配雇主-雇员数据的见解
Pub Date : 2011-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1754510
C. Tolbert, Troy C. Blanchard
We analyze the earnings determination process of more than 400,000 rural manufacturing workers in 12 selected U.S. states. Our theoretical motivation stems from an ongoing interest in the benefits of locally oriented business establishments. In this case, we distinguish manufacturing concerns that are single establishments in one rural place from branch plants that are part of larger multi-establishment enterprises. Our data permit us to introduce attributes of both workers and their employing firms into earnings determination models. For manufacturing workers in “micropolitan” rural counties, we find that working for a local (single) establishment has a positive impact on annual earnings. However, tenure with a firm returns more earnings for workers in non-local manufacturing facilities. Conversely, for manufacturing workers in “noncore” or rural areas without urban cores, we find that working for a local establishment has a negative effect on earnings. But, job tenure pays off more when working for a local establishment.
我们分析了美国12个州40多万农村制造业工人的收入决定过程。我们的理论动机源于对本地商业机构利益的持续兴趣。在这种情况下,我们将一个农村地区的单一工厂与作为大型多机构企业一部分的分支工厂区分开来。我们的数据允许我们将工人和雇佣他们的公司的属性引入到收入决定模型中。对于“小城市”农村县的制造业工人,我们发现为当地(单一)企业工作对年收入有积极影响。然而,在非本地制造工厂工作的工人,在公司任职的回报更高。相反,对于“非核心”或没有城市核心的农村地区的制造业工人,我们发现为当地企业工作对收入有负面影响。但是,在当地企业工作,终身职位的回报会更高。
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引用次数: 0
Migration Decisions in Arctic Alaska: Empirical Evidence of the Stepping Stones Hypothesis 阿拉斯加北极地区的移民决策:垫脚石假说的经验证据
Pub Date : 2010-12-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1729219
L. Howe, L. Huskey
This paper explores hypotheses of hierarchical migration using data from the Alaskan Arctic. We focus on migration of Inupiat people, who are indigenous to the region, and explore the role of income, harvests of subsistence resources, and other place characteristics in migration decisions. To test related hypotheses we use confidential micro-data from the US Census Bureau’s 2000 Decennial Census of Population and Income. Using predicted earnings and subsistence along with place invariant characteristics we generate migration probabilities using a mixed multinomial and conditional logit model. Our results support stepwise migration patterns, both up and down an urban and rural hierarchy. At the same time, we also identify differences between men and women, and we find mixed effects of place amenities and predicted earnings.
本文利用阿拉斯加北极地区的数据探讨了分层迁移的假设。我们关注因纽特人的迁移,他们是该地区的土著居民,并探索收入,生存资源的收获和其他地方特征在迁移决策中的作用。为了检验相关假设,我们使用了美国人口普查局2000年十年一次的人口和收入普查的机密微观数据。利用预测的收入和生计以及地方不变特征,我们使用混合多项和条件logit模型生成迁移概率。我们的研究结果支持逐步迁移模式,包括城市和农村层级的上下迁移。同时,我们也发现了男性和女性之间的差异,我们发现了场所便利设施和预期收入的混合影响。
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引用次数: 3
Comparing Measures of Earnings Instability Based on Survey and Administrative Reports 基于调查报告和行政报告的盈余不稳定性指标比较
Pub Date : 2010-08-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1658489
Chinhui Juhn, Kristin McCue
In Celik, Juhn, McCue, and Thompson (2009), we found that estimated levels of earnings instability based on data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) were reasonably close to each other and to others’ estimates from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID), but estimates from unemployment insurance (UI) earnings were much larger. Given that the UI data are from administrative records which are often posited to be more accurate than survey reports, this raises concerns that measures based on survey data understate true earnings instability. To address this, we use links between survey samples from the SIPP and UI earnings records in the LEHD database to identify sources of differences in work history and earnings information. Substantial work has been done comparing earnings levels from administrative records to those collected in the SIPP and CPS, but our understanding of earnings instability would benefit from further examination of differences across sources in the properties of changes in earnings. We first compare characteristics of the overall and matched samples to address issues of selection in the matching process. We then compare earnings levels and jobs in the SIPP and LEHD data to identify differences between them. Finally we begin to examine how such differences affect estimates of earnings instability. Our preliminary findings suggest that differences in earnings changes for those in the lower tail of the earnings distribution account for much of the difference in instability estimates.
在Celik, Juhn, McCue和Thompson(2009)中,我们发现基于当前人口调查(CPS)和收入和计划参与调查(SIPP)的数据估计的收入不稳定水平彼此相当接近,并且与其他来自收入动态小组研究(PSID)的估计接近,但来自失业保险(UI)收入的估计要大得多。考虑到UI数据来自行政记录,通常被认为比调查报告更准确,这引起了人们的担忧,即基于调查数据的措施低估了真实的收入不稳定性。为了解决这个问题,我们使用了来自SIPP和LEHD数据库中UI收入记录的调查样本之间的联系,以确定工作经历和收入信息差异的来源。已经做了大量的工作来比较来自行政记录的收入水平与SIPP和CPS中收集的收入水平,但我们对收入不稳定性的理解将受益于进一步研究不同来源的收入变化特性的差异。我们首先比较整体和匹配样本的特征,以解决匹配过程中的选择问题。然后,我们比较了SIPP和LEHD数据中的收入水平和工作,以确定它们之间的差异。最后,我们开始研究这些差异如何影响对收益不稳定性的估计。我们的初步发现表明,在收入分布的下尾,收入变化的差异在很大程度上解释了不稳定性估计的差异。
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引用次数: 13
Concentration, Diversity, and Manufacturing Performance 集中度、多样性和制造绩效
Pub Date : 2010-07-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1649462
J. Drucker
Regional economist Benjamin Chinitz was one of the most successful proponents of the idea that regional industrial structure is an important determinant of economic performance. His influential article in the American Economic Review in 1961 prompted substantial research measuring industrial structure at the regional scale and examining its relationships to economic outcomes. A considerable portion of this work operationalized the concept of regional industrial structure as sectoral diversity, the degree to which the composition of an economy is spread across heterogeneous activities. Diversity is a relatively simple construct to measure and interpret, but does not capture the implications of Chinitz’s ideas fully. The structure within regional industries may also influence the performance of business enterprises. In particular, regional intra-industry concentration—the extent to which an industry is dominated by a few relatively large firms in a locality—has not appeared in empirical work studying economic performance apart from individual case studies, principally because accurately measuring concentration within a regional industry requires firm-level information. Multiple establishments of varying sizes in a given locality may be part of the same firm. Therefore, secondary data sources on establishment size distributions (such as County Business Patterns or aggregated information from the Census of Manufactures) can yield only deceptive portrayals of the level of regional industrial concentration. This paper uses the Longitudinal Research Database, a confidential establishment-level dataset compiled by the United States Census Bureau, to compare the influences of industrial diversity and intra-industry concentration upon regional and firm-level economic outcomes. Manufacturing establishments are aggregated into firms and several indicators of regional industrial concentration are calculated at multiple levels of industrial aggregation. These concentration indicators, along with a regional sectoral diversity measure, are related to employment change over time and incorporated into plant productivity estimations, in order to examine and distinguish the relationships between the differing aspects of regional industrial structure and economic performance. A better understanding of the particular links between regional industrial structure and economic performance can be used to improve economic development planning efforts. With continuing economic restructuring and associated workforce dislocation in the United States and worldwide, industrial concentration and over-specialization are separate mechanisms by which regions may “lock in” to particular competencies and limit the capacity to adjust quickly and efficiently to changing markets and technologies. The most appropriate and effective policies for improving economic adaptability should reflect the structural characteristics that limit flexibility. This paper gauges the consequences of distin
区域经济学家本杰明·奇尼茨(Benjamin Chinitz)是“区域产业结构是经济表现的重要决定因素”这一观点最成功的支持者之一。1961年,他在《美国经济评论》(American Economic Review)上发表了一篇颇具影响力的文章,引发了大量研究,以区域尺度衡量产业结构,并考察其与经济结果的关系。这项工作的相当一部分将区域工业结构的概念化为部门多样性,即经济的组成在不同的活动中分散的程度。多样性是一个相对简单的概念,可以衡量和解释,但并不能完全捕捉奇尼茨思想的含义。区域产业内部的结构也会影响企业的绩效。特别是,除了个别案例研究之外,区域内的产业集中度——一个产业被几个相对较大的企业主导的程度——还没有出现在研究经济表现的实证工作中,主要是因为准确衡量一个区域产业内的集中度需要企业层面的信息。在一个特定地区,不同规模的多个机构可能是同一公司的一部分。因此,关于企业规模分布的二手数据来源(如县商业模式或来自制造业普查的汇总信息)只能对区域工业集中度的水平产生欺骗性的描述。本文利用美国人口普查局编制的企业层面数据集——纵向研究数据库,比较了产业多样性和产业内集中度对区域和企业层面经济结果的影响。将制造业机构汇总为企业,并在多个产业聚集水平上计算区域产业集中度的若干指标。这些集中度指标与区域部门多样性措施一起,与一段时间内的就业变化有关,并纳入工厂生产率估计,以便审查和区分区域工业结构不同方面与经济绩效之间的关系。更好地了解区域工业结构与经济绩效之间的特殊联系可以用来改进经济发展规划工作。随着美国和全世界持续的经济结构调整和相关的劳动力错位,工业集中和过度专业化是不同的机制,通过这些机制,各地区可能“锁定”特定的能力,并限制迅速有效地适应不断变化的市场和技术的能力。提高经济适应性的最适当和最有效的政策应反映限制灵活性的结构特征。本文衡量了区域产业结构的不同方面的后果,为经济发展规划者和研究者对区域产业的研究增加了新的深度。
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引用次数: 2
National Estimates of Gross Employment and Job Flows from the Quarterly Workforce Indicators with Demographic and Industry Detail 从带有人口统计和行业细节的季度劳动力指标估算全国总就业和工作流量
Pub Date : 2010-06-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1625260
J. Abowd, L. Vilhuber
The Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) are local labor market data produced and released every quarter by the United States Census Bureau. Unlike any other local labor market series produced in the U.S. or the rest of the world, QWI measure employment flows for workers (accession and separations), jobs (creations and destructions) and earnings for demographic subgroups (age and gender), economic industry (NAICS industry groups), detailed geography (block (experimental), county, Core-Based Statistical Area, and Workforce Investment Area), and ownership (private, all) with fully interacted publication tables. The current QWI data cover 47 states, about 98% of the private workforce in those states, and about 92% of all private employment in the entire economy. State participation is sufficiently extensive to permit us to present the first national estimates constructed from these data. We focus on worker, job, and excess (churning) reallocation rates, rather than on levels of the basic variables. This permits comparison to existing series from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey and the Business Employment Dynamics Series from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The national estimates from the QWI are an important enhancement to existing series because they include demographic and industry detail for both worker and job flow data compiled from underlying micro-data that have been integrated at the job and establishment levels by the Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics Program at the Census Bureau. The estimates presented herein were compiled exclusively from public-use data series and are available for download.
季度劳动力指标(QWI)是美国人口普查局每季度编制和发布的当地劳动力市场数据。与美国或世界其他地方生产的任何其他本地劳动力市场系列不同,QWI衡量工人的就业流动(加入和离职),工作(创造和破坏)和人口分组(年龄和性别),经济行业(NAICS行业组),详细地理(块(实验),县,基于核心的统计区域和劳动力投资区)和所有权(私人,所有)与完全互动的出版物表。目前的QWI数据涵盖了47个州,约占这些州私营劳动力的98%,约占整个经济中所有私营就业的92%。国家的参与足够广泛,使我们能够提出根据这些数据构建的第一个国家估计数。我们关注的是工人、工作和过度再分配率,而不是基本变量的水平。这可以与现有的职位空缺和劳动力流动调查系列以及劳工统计局(BLS)的企业就业动态系列进行比较。来自QWI的全国估计是对现有系列的重要改进,因为它们包括了工人和工作流动数据的人口统计和行业细节,这些数据是由人口普查局的纵向雇主-家庭动态计划在工作和企业层面整合的基本微观数据汇编而成的。本文所列估计数完全是根据公共使用的数据汇编而成,可供下载。
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引用次数: 48
Euler-Equation Estimation for Discrete Choice Models: A Capital Accumulation Appplication 离散选择模型的欧拉方程估计:一个资本积累的应用
Pub Date : 2010-01-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1543239
Russell Cooper, J. Haltiwanger, Jonathan L. Willis
This paper studies capital adjustment at the establishment level. Our goal is to characterize capital adjustment costs, which are important for understanding both the dynamics of aggregate investment and the impact of various policies on capital accumulation. Our estimation strategy searches for parameters that minimize ex post errors in an Euler equation. This strategy is quite common in models for which adjustment occurs in each period. Here, we extend that logic to the estimation of parameters of dynamic optimization problems in which non-convexities lead to extended periods of investment inactivity. In doing so, we create a method to take into account censored observations stemming from intermittent investment. This methodology allows us to take the structural model directly to the data, avoiding time-consuming simulation based methods. To study the effectiveness of this methodology, we first undertake several Monte Carlo exercises using data generated by the structural model. We then estimate capital adjustment costs for U.S. manufacturing establishments in two sectors.
本文研究的是设立层面的资本调整。我们的目标是描述资本调整成本,这对于理解总投资的动态和各种政策对资本积累的影响都很重要。我们的估计策略搜索欧拉方程中最小事后误差的参数。这种策略在每个时期发生调整的模型中非常常见。在这里,我们将该逻辑扩展到动态优化问题的参数估计,其中非凸性导致延长的投资不活动期。在此过程中,我们创建了一种方法来考虑间歇性投资产生的审查观察结果。这种方法允许我们将结构模型直接用于数据,避免了耗时的基于模拟的方法。为了研究这种方法的有效性,我们首先使用结构模型生成的数据进行了几次蒙特卡罗练习。然后,我们估计了美国制造业在两个部门的资本调整成本。
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引用次数: 7
A Formal Test of Assortative Matching in the Labor Market 劳动力市场分类匹配的正式检验
Pub Date : 2009-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.1515695
J. Abowd, F. Kramarz, S. Pérez-Duarte, Ian M. Schmutte
We estimate a structural model of job assignment in the presence of coordination frictions due to Shimer (2005). The coordination friction model places restrictions on the joint distribution of worker and firm effects from a linear decomposition of log labor earnings. These restrictions permit estimation of the unobservable ability and productivity differences between workers and their employers as well as the way workers sort into jobs on the basis of these unobservable factors. The estimation is performed on matched employer-employee data from the LEHD program of the U.S. Census Bureau. The estimated correlation between worker and firm effects from the earnings decomposition is close to zero, a finding that is often interpreted as evidence that there is no sorting by comparative advantage in the labor market. Our estimates suggest that this finding actually results from a lack of sufficient heterogeneity in the workforce and available jobs. Workers do sort into jobs on the basis of productive differences, but the effects of sorting are not visible because of the composition of workers and employers.
由于Shimer(2005)的研究,我们估计了一个存在协调摩擦的工作分配结构模型。协调摩擦模型通过对数劳动收入的线性分解,限制了工人和企业的共同分配效应。这些限制允许估计工人和雇主之间不可观察的能力和生产力差异,以及工人根据这些不可观察因素分类工作的方式。该估计是根据美国人口普查局LEHD计划中匹配的雇主-雇员数据进行的。从收入分解中估计的工人和企业效应之间的相关性接近于零,这一发现通常被解释为劳动力市场中没有比较优势排序的证据。我们的估计表明,这一发现实际上是由于劳动力和可用工作缺乏足够的异质性。工人们确实会根据生产效率的差异来对工作进行分类,但由于工人和雇主的构成,分类的效果并不明显。
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引用次数: 40
The Effect of Wage Insurance on Labor Supply: A Test for Income Effects 工资保险对劳动力供给的影响:收入效应的检验
Pub Date : 2009-10-01 DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.1491533
Henry R. Hyatt
Studies of moral hazard in wage insurance programs such as Unemployment Insurance (UI) or Workers Compensation (WC) have demonstrated that higher benefits discourage work, emphasizing the price distortion inherent in benefit provision. Utilizing administrative data linking WC claim records to wage records from a UI payroll tax database, I find that the effect of WC benefits on the duration of benefit receipt cannot fully account for the effect of these benefits on post-injury unemployment. This indicates that a significant fraction of the effect of WC benefits on employment is due to an income effect rather than a price distortion.
对失业保险(UI)或工人补偿(WC)等工资保险项目的道德风险的研究表明,较高的福利不利于工作,强调了福利提供中固有的价格扭曲。利用将WC索赔记录与UI工资税数据库中的工资记录链接起来的管理数据,我发现WC福利对领取福利持续时间的影响并不能完全解释这些福利对受伤后失业的影响。这表明,WC福利对就业的很大一部分影响是由于收入效应,而不是价格扭曲。
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引用次数: 0
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