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Institutions, Trust and Responsiveness: Patterns of Government and Private Action During the COVID-19 Pandemic 机构、信任和响应:新冠肺炎大流行期间政府和私人行动的模式
Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.31389/LSEPPR.30
Timothy Besley, Sacha Dray
Why have countries responded differently to the COVID-19 pandemic? We explore the role of institutions in shaping the response of governments and citizens to the progression of the disease, both conceptually and empirically. We document a puzzling fact: countries with “good institutions” – strong executive constraints, the holding of free and fair elections and more freedom – tend to have performed worse during the initial phase of the pandemic. They have been slower to implement a lockdown and experienced a larger death toll. On the other hand, countries with higher interpersonal trust and higher confidence in government appear to have fared better. We find limited evidence of differences in mobility reduction by citizens based on institutions in their country.
为什么各国对新冠肺炎疫情的反应不同?我们从概念上和经验上探讨了机构在塑造政府和公民对疾病进展的反应中的作用。我们记录了一个令人困惑的事实:拥有“良好制度”——强有力的行政约束、举行自由公正的选举和更多自由——的国家在疫情初期的表现往往更糟。他们实施封锁的速度较慢,死亡人数也更大。另一方面,人际信任度较高、对政府信心较高的国家似乎表现得更好。我们发现,基于本国机构,公民在减少流动性方面存在差异的证据有限。
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引用次数: 8
Following the Science: Pandemic Policy Making and Reasonable Worst-Case Scenarios 遵循科学:流行病政策制定和合理的最坏情况
Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.31389/LSEPPR.23
R. Bradley, J. Roussos
The UK has been ‘following the science’ in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in line with the national framework for the use of scientific advice in assessment of risk. We argue that the way in which it does so is unsatisfactory in two important respects. Firstly, pandemic policy making is not based on a comprehensive assessment of policy impacts. And secondly, the focus on reasonable worst-case scenarios as a way of managing uncertainty results in a loss of decision-relevant information and does not provide a coherent basis for policy making.
英国一直在“遵循科学”,以应对新冠肺炎大流行,符合在风险评估中使用科学建议的国家框架。我们认为,它这样做的方式在两个重要方面令人不满意。首先,疫情政策制定并非基于对政策影响的全面评估。其次,将重点放在合理的最坏情况下,作为管理不确定性的一种方式,会导致决策相关信息的丢失,并不能为政策制定提供连贯的基础。
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引用次数: 4
Preparing for Crises: Lessons from Covid-19 为危机做准备:新冠肺炎的教训
Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.31389/LSEPPR.32
Jishnu Das, A. Khan, A. Khwaja, A. Malkani
The Covid-19 pandemic is an unprecedented crisis for governments across the globe. Despite a timely and effective mobilization of resources, consistent challenges hampered the efforts of many governments and resulted in avoidable losses. With the benefit of hindsight, we focus on two root causes behind the deficiencies in the global Covid-19 response: (i) challenges in collaboration and coordination between multiple actors and (ii) challenges in using existing data infrastructure to inform an evidence driven and dynamic policy response. We argue that adopting an active learning mindset, putting in place protocols and mechanisms for greater coordination and collaboration, and preparing a robust data infrastructure will help governments improve their responses to Covid-19 and other emergencies in the future.
Covid-19大流行对全球各国政府来说是一场前所未有的危机。尽管及时有效地调动了资源,但持续不断的挑战阻碍了许多政府的努力,造成了本可避免的损失。事后看来,我们关注全球Covid-19应对工作不足的两个根本原因:(i)多方行为体之间协作与协调方面的挑战;(ii)利用现有数据基础设施为循证驱动的动态政策应对提供信息方面的挑战。我们认为,采取积极的学习心态,建立加强协调与合作的协议和机制,并准备健全的数据基础设施,将有助于各国政府在未来改善对Covid-19和其他紧急情况的应对措施。
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引用次数: 4
Why we Need a Gender Advisor on SAGE 为什么我们需要SAGE的性别顾问
Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.31389/LSEPPR.25
C. Wenham, A. Herten-Crabb
The UK government has largely failed to consider gender in its COVID-19 response, despite the many and varied differential impacts of policy interventions on women and men. Since government policy is informed by the advice ministers receive, we sought to understand whether and how gender had been considered by the UK government’s COVID-19 Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (SAGE). This paper uses two forms of policy analysis to assess 73 SAGE meeting minutes and background documents for 1) the explicit references to sex and/or gender, and 2) references to issues evidenced in the literature to be gendered, to understand whether the gendered implications of policy were considered. We find that the acknowledgement of the gendered dynamics of particular issues, such as school closures and feminised (or masculinised) employment sectors, were largely absent in SAGE meeting minutes and that explicit references to women were largely of a biological (sex) nature, rather than social (gender). Over time we saw increased references to the gendered impacts of policy in meeting background documents, though these references largely reproduced gendered stereotypes and roles rather than actively engaging with the gender issues. However, not all blame can be put at the feet of SAGE members, who did show awareness of equity issues and were predominantly epidemiologists and behavioural scientists likely untrained in gender analysis. SAGE members are selected based on the government’s framing of the type of emergency at hand, and COVID-19 has been treated by the government as a an epidemiological emergency, rather than a social, political and economic one. We argue that reframing emergencies like the COVID-19 pandemic in a more holistic way enables us to redefine the scientific advice deemed necessary for SAGE membership, and facilitates the inclusion of gender advisors to mitigate the downstream gendered impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions associated with the government’s COVID-19 response.
尽管政策干预对女性和男性产生了许多不同的不同影响,但英国政府在应对COVID-19方面基本上没有考虑到性别问题。由于政府政策是根据部长们收到的建议来制定的,我们试图了解英国政府的COVID-19紧急情况科学咨询小组(SAGE)是否以及如何考虑了性别问题。本文使用两种形式的政策分析来评估73份SAGE会议纪要和背景文件:1)明确提及性别和/或社会性别,以及2)参考文献中证明的性别问题,以了解政策是否考虑了性别影响。我们发现,在SAGE会议纪要中,对特定问题的性别动态的承认,例如学校关闭和女性化(或男性化)就业部门,在很大程度上是缺席的,明确提到女性的主要是生物(性别)性质,而不是社会(性别)性质。随着时间的推移,我们看到在会议背景文件中越来越多地提到政策对性别的影响,尽管这些提及在很大程度上再现了性别的刻板印象和角色,而不是积极参与性别问题。然而,并不是所有的责任都可以归咎于SAGE成员,他们确实意识到了公平问题,而且主要是流行病学家和行为科学家,可能没有接受过性别分析方面的培训。SAGE成员是根据政府对手头紧急情况的定义来选择的,政府一直将COVID-19视为流行病紧急情况,而不是社会、政治和经济紧急情况。我们认为,以更全面的方式重新构建COVID-19大流行等紧急情况,使我们能够重新定义被认为是SAGE成员所需的科学建议,并促进性别顾问的加入,以减轻与政府应对COVID-19相关的非药物干预措施对下游性别的影响。
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引用次数: 5
The Attractions and Limitations of Pragmatist Crisis Management: A Discussion in Light of COVID-19 Experiences 实用主义危机管理的吸引力与局限性:基于COVID-19经验的讨论
Pub Date : 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.31389/LSEPPR.22
A. Boin, M. Lodge
In a crisis, the temptation for political leaders to ‘go big and do it fast’ can be overwhelming. Societal pressure to act decisively can lead to crisis measures that in hindsight may well be considered overwrought and impulsive. The so-called pragmatist approach to crisis management offers an attractive alternative to the ‘big decision’ approach that was also popular during the COVID-19 crisis. At least in theory, this alternative offers solutions for the often-observed shortcomings of large-scale crisis responses. In this paper, we consider the possibilities and limitations of the Pragmatist approach, using illustrations from the ongoing Covid-19 crisis.
在危机中,政治领导人“做大做快”的诱惑可能是压倒性的。果断行动的社会压力可能导致危机措施,事后看来,这些措施很可能被认为是过度紧张和冲动的。所谓的实用主义危机管理方法为新冠肺炎危机期间同样流行的“重大决策”方法提供了一种有吸引力的替代方法。至少在理论上,这种替代方案为大规模危机应对中经常出现的缺点提供了解决方案。在这篇论文中,我们使用正在进行的新冠肺炎危机的插图,考虑了实用主义方法的可能性和局限性。
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引用次数: 4
COVID-19 and Global Income Inequality. COVID-19 和全球收入不平等。
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 Epub Date: 2021-05-03 DOI: 10.31389/lseppr.26
Angus Deaton

There is a widespread belief that the COVID-19 pandemic has increased global income inequality, reducing per capita incomes by more in poor countries than in rich. This supposition is reasonable but false. Rich countries have experienced more deaths per head than have poor countries, their better health systems, higher incomes, more capable governments and better preparedness notwithstanding. The US did worse than some rich countries but better than several others. Countries with more deaths saw larger declines in GDP per capita. At least after the fact, fewer deaths meant more income. As a result, per capita incomes fell by more in higher-income countries. Country by country, international income inequality decreased. When countries are weighted by population, international income inequality increased, in line with the original intuition. This was largely because Indian GDP fell and because the disequalizing effect of declining Indian incomes was not offset by rising incomes in China, which is no longer a globally poor country. That these findings are a result of the pandemic is supported by comparing global inequality using IMF forecasts in October 2019 and October 2020. These results concern GDP per capita and say little or nothing about the global distribution of living standards, let alone about the global distribution of suffering during the first year of the pandemic.

人们普遍认为,COVID-19 大流行加剧了全球收入不平等,使穷国的人均收入比富国减少得更多。这种假设是合理的,但却是错误的。富国的人均死亡人数高于穷国,尽管富国拥有更好的卫生系统、更高的收入、更有能力的政府以及更好的准备。美国的情况比一些富裕国家更糟,但比其他几个国家更好。死亡人数较多的国家人均国内生产总值下降幅度较大。至少在事后看来,死亡人数减少意味着收入增加。因此,高收入国家的人均收入下降幅度更大。从国家来看,国际收入不平等现象有所减少。当各国按人口加权时,国际收入不平等加剧,这与最初的直觉一致。这主要是因为印度的国内生产总值下降了,而且印度收入下降的不平等效应没有被中国收入的增长所抵消,而中国已不再是全球贫穷国家。利用国际货币基金组织 2019 年 10 月和 2020 年 10 月的预测比较全球不平等程度,可以证明这些发现是大流行病的结果。这些结果涉及人均国内生产总值,对全球生活水平的分布情况几乎没有任何说明,更不用说大流行病第一年的全球痛苦分布情况了。
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引用次数: 0
Weighing the Costs and Benefits of Public Policy: On the Dangers of Single Metric Accounting 权衡公共政策的成本和收益:论单一计量会计的危险
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31389/lseppr.47
J. Thoma
This article presents two related challenges to the idea that, to ensure policy evaluation is comprehensive, all costs and benefits should be aggregated into a single, equity-weighted wellbeing metric. The first is to point out how, even allowing for equity-weighting, the use of a single metric limits the extent to which we can take distributional concerns into account. The second challenge starts from the observation that in this and many other ways, aggregating diverse effects into a single metric of evaluation necessarily involves settling many moral questions that reasonable people disagree about. This raises serious questions as to what role such a method of policy evaluation can and should play in informing policy-making in liberal democracies. Ultimately, to ensure comprehensiveness of policy evaluation in a wider sense, namely, that all the diverse effects that reasonable people might think matter are kept score of, we need multiple metrics as inputs to public deliberation.
本文对以下观点提出了两个相关的挑战:为了确保政策评估是全面的,所有的成本和收益都应该汇总成一个单一的、公平加权的福利指标。首先是指出,即使考虑到股权加权,单一指标的使用如何限制了我们考虑分配问题的程度。第二个挑战来自于这样的观察:在这种和许多其他方式中,将不同的影响汇总到一个单一的评估指标中,必然涉及解决许多理性的人不同意的道德问题。这就提出了一个严肃的问题,即这种政策评估方法能够而且应该在自由民主国家的决策中发挥什么样的作用。最终,为了确保更广泛意义上的政策评估的全面性,也就是说,所有理性的人可能认为重要的不同影响都被记录下来,我们需要多种指标作为公众审议的输入。
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引用次数: 1
Health and Disability Gaps in Political Engagement: A Short Review 政治参与中的健康和残疾差距:简短回顾
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31389/lseppr.44
Mikko Mattila
This review presents a short overview of the current state of research in the field of health, disability, and political engagement. I focus on the individual-level relationship between health and political behaviour or political attitudes. Most of the existing studies have analysed the effects of health or disability on electoral turnout, and almost all of these studies have found a negative association between poor health, disability, and turnout. The relationships between health and other forms of political participation are more complex; poor health and disability can actually promote certain types of participation (e.g., signing petitions or participation in social media). However, studies of political attitudes show that poor health and disability are connected to lower levels of trust and external political efficacy and that this disengagement may even lead, for example, to increased support for right-wing populist parties. In general, political actors and researchers need to be encouraged to implement new, more inclusive solutions to bridge the health and disability gaps in political engagement.
本综述简要概述了健康、残疾和政治参与领域的研究现状。我关注的是健康与政治行为或政治态度之间的个人层面关系。现有的大多数研究都分析了健康或残疾对投票率的影响,几乎所有这些研究都发现,健康状况不佳、残疾与投票率之间存在负相关关系。健康与其他形式的政治参与之间的关系更为复杂;健康状况不佳和残疾实际上可以促进某些类型的参与(例如,签署请愿书或参与社交媒体)。然而,对政治态度的研究表明,健康状况不佳和残疾与信任度和外部政治效力较低有关,这种脱离接触甚至可能导致,例如,对右翼民粹主义政党的支持增加。总的来说,需要鼓励政治行为者和研究人员实施更具包容性的新解决办法,以弥合政治参与方面的健康和残疾差距。
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引用次数: 1
Health, Wellbeing, and Democratic Citizenship: A Review and Research Agenda 健康、福祉与民主公民:回顾与研究议程
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31389/lseppr.50
C. Anderson, Sara Hagemann, Robert Klemmensen
Social scientists have examined the causes and consequences of people’s engagement with politics for many decades, yet we have only just begun to understand the roles that health and wellbeing play in people’s involvement as members of the body politic. Findings from a nascent body of research suggest that health predicts people’s decision to turn out to vote and whether they feel they can have a say in political decisions more broadly, but we still lack a systematic understanding of the variable, as well as specific, ways in which health and feelings of wellbeing shape people’s interactions with political life. We also know little about how—and if—these patterns vary across groups in society, regions, countries, or over time. In this contribution, we present a framework for analysing the ways in which specific health conditions may shape the connection between citizens’ wellbeing and their interactions with politics and how research should endeavour to trace the consequences of these links for people’s lives as citizens and their full participation in the democratic political process.
几十年来,社会科学家一直在研究人们参与政治的原因和后果,但我们才刚刚开始了解健康和幸福在人们作为政治体成员参与政治中所扮演的角色。新兴研究机构的研究结果表明,健康状况可以预测人们投票的决定,以及他们是否觉得自己在更广泛的政治决策中有发言权,但我们仍然缺乏对健康和幸福感如何影响人们与政治生活互动的变量和具体方式的系统理解。我们对这些模式如何以及是否在社会、地区、国家或不同时期的群体中发生变化也知之甚少。在这篇文章中,我们提出了一个框架,用于分析具体健康状况可能影响公民福祉与其与政治互动之间联系的方式,以及研究应如何努力追踪这些联系对公民生活和他们充分参与民主政治进程的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Wellbeing as the Goal of Policy 福祉是政策的目标
Pub Date : 2021-01-01 DOI: 10.31389/lseppr.46
R. Layard
When policy-makers have multiple objectives, they still need an over-arching criterion which determines the importance of the different objectives. The most reasonable criterion is the wellbeing of the population. Fortunately, it turns out that this is also the outcome which most determines whether a government gets re-elected. We therefore argue that, wherever there is a fixed budget constraint, money should allocated to those policies which give the greatest increase in wellbeing per pound of expenditure. If desired, now policies can focus especially on areas of life which cause the most misery. The new science of wellbeing provides evidence on which these are: especially mental and physical illness and poor relationships at work, at home or in the community. But, to approve a policy, there must be evidence of its effectiveness in dealing with the problem – preferably through controlled experiments. Where a policy increases the length of life, this counts as an addition to wellbeing, measured by Wellbeing-Years (or WELLBYs) per person born. Even policy-makers unmoved by wellbeing as an objective should promote it because of its large positive effects on productivity, academic learning and life-expectancy. If wellbeing is to play its proper role in decision-making, this will require a major re-organisation of Finance Ministries and other decision-making bodies.
当决策者有多个目标时,他们仍然需要一个总体标准来确定不同目标的重要性。最合理的标准是人民的福祉。幸运的是,事实证明,这也是决定政府能否连任的最重要的结果。因此,我们认为,只要存在固定的预算限制,就应该把钱分配给那些每磅支出能最大程度提高福利的政策。如果愿意,现在的政策可以特别集中在造成最大痛苦的生活领域。关于幸福感的新科学提供了证据,证明这些是:尤其是精神和身体疾病,以及工作、家庭或社区中的不良关系。但是,要批准一项政策,必须有证据表明它在处理问题方面是有效的——最好是通过对照实验。如果一项政策延长了人的寿命,那么这就被视为福祉的增加,以每个出生的人的幸福年(或WELLBYs)来衡量。即使是不把幸福作为目标的政策制定者也应该促进它,因为它对生产力、学术学习和预期寿命都有巨大的积极影响。如果要让福利在决策中发挥应有的作用,就需要对财政部和其他决策机构进行重大重组。
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引用次数: 1
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LSE public policy review
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