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Proteome organ aging and cardiometabolic risk in a population at risk for heart failure. 心力衰竭高危人群的蛋白质组器官衰老和心脏代谢风险
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-12 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02980-6
Kaiyong Qu, Elisa Dal Canto, Anne-Mar L N van Ommen, Sabrina Abou Kamar, Arco J Teske, Maarten Jan Cramer, Marianne C Verhaar, Dirk J Duncker, Frans H Rutten, Isabella Kardys, Roxana Menken, Leonard Hofstra, Igor I Tulevski, G Aernout Somsen, N Charlotte Onland-Moret, Ernest Diez Benavente, Hester M den Ruijter

Background: Biological aging varies across individuals and tissues, influencing chronic diseases, including heart failure (HF). Emerging proteome techniques enable quantification of organ-specific aging acceleration (OAA), but whether OAA relates to HF severity and differs by sex remains unclear. We aim to assess the sex-related association between OAA of heart, artery and kidneys and HF severity, and to investigate relevant cardiometabolic risk factors of organ aging.

Methods: In 556 participants from the HELPFul cohort, we estimated predicted biological age for heart, artery, and kidneys using plasma proteomics and calculated OAA as the deviation from chronological age. Associations between OAA and HF stage, echocardiographic parameters, and cardiometabolic risk factors were evaluated using regression models. Composite indices, including triglyceride-glucose body mass index (TyG-BMI), c-reactive protein-triglyceride glucose index and triglyceride-to-HDL cholesterol ratio were assessed for associations with advanced OAA.

Results: Mean age was 63 ± 9 years; 65% were women. Patients were classified as HF stage A (35%), B (29%) and C/D (36%). Heart OAA was significantly associated with advanced HF (Stage C/D) in both sexes (OR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.23 in women; OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.32 in men), while artery OAA was linked to HF only in women (OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.18). Multi-organ aging (≥ 2 organs with advanced OAA) conferred over three-fold higher odds of being in Stage C/D. Heart OAA correlated with impaired cardiac structure and function, particularly reduced ejection fraction in men and increased left ventricular mass index in both sexes. Diabetes emerged as the most relevant factor of artery and kidney OAA. TyG-BMI was significantly associated with advanced kidney OAA, only in women (z-scored OR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.45 to 2.45).

Conclusions: Proteome-derived organ aging correlates with HF severity, with possible sex-related patterns. Diabetes and higher TyG-BMI are associated with faster organ aging, which may reflect shared aging mechanisms between metabolic dysfunction and HF.

背景:生物衰老在个体和组织之间存在差异,影响慢性疾病,包括心力衰竭(HF)。新兴的蛋白质组技术能够量化器官特异性衰老加速(OAA),但OAA是否与HF严重程度有关且性别不同仍不清楚。我们的目的是评估心脏、动脉和肾脏的OAA与HF严重程度的性别相关性,并探讨器官衰老的相关心脏代谢危险因素。方法:在来自HELPFul队列的556名参与者中,我们使用血浆蛋白质组学估计了心脏、动脉和肾脏的生物学年龄,并计算了OAA与实足年龄的偏差。使用回归模型评估OAA与HF分期、超声心动图参数和心脏代谢危险因素之间的关系。评估甘油三酯-葡萄糖体重指数(TyG-BMI)、c反应蛋白-甘油三酯-葡萄糖指数和甘油三酯-高密度脂蛋白胆固醇比值等复合指数与晚期OAA的相关性。结果:平均年龄63±9岁;65%是女性。患者分为HF A期(35%)、B期(29%)和C/D期(36%)。在两性中,心脏OAA与晚期HF (C/D期)显著相关(女性OR = 1.12, 95% CI 1.03 - 1.23;男性OR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.05 - 1.32),而动脉OAA仅与女性HF相关(OR = 1.10, 95% CI 1.01 - 1.18)。多器官老化(≥2个器官伴晚期OAA)使进入C/D期的几率增加3倍以上。心脏OAA与心脏结构和功能受损相关,尤其是男性射血分数降低和男女左心室质量指数升高。糖尿病是动脉和肾脏OAA最相关的因素。TyG-BMI与晚期肾OAA显著相关,仅在女性中(z评分OR = 1.88, 95% CI 1.45至2.45)。结论:蛋白质组来源的器官老化与HF严重程度相关,可能与性别相关。糖尿病和较高的TyG-BMI与更快的器官衰老相关,这可能反映了代谢功能障碍与HF之间的共同衰老机制。
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引用次数: 0
A six-year longitudinal study identifies a statin-independent association between low LDL-cholesterol and risk of type 2 diabetes. 一项为期六年的纵向研究发现,低ldl -胆固醇与2型糖尿病风险之间存在不依赖于他汀类药物的关联。
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02964-6
Maria Lembo, Valentina Trimarco, Daniela Pacella, Raffaele Izzo, Stanislovas S Jankauskas, Roberto Piccinocchi, Paola Gallo, Luca Bardi, Gaetano Piccinocchi, Carmine Morisco, Stefano Cristiano, Giovanni Esposito, Giuseppe Giugliano, Maria Virginia Manzi, Gaetano Santulli, Bruno Trimarco

Background: Statin therapy has been associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). We investigated the relationship between Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL-C) plasma concentrations and incident T2D and evaluated the modifying effect of statin therapy in a large population-based cohort.

Methods: Individuals free of T2D and cardiovascular disease at baseline were followed longitudinally for the development of new-onset T2D. Cox proportional hazards models were applied to evaluate the associations of LDL-C levels and statin therapy with T2D risk.

Results: From a population of 202,545 individuals, we selected 13,674 participants free of T2D and cardiovascular disease (of whom 52% were on statins), who were followed for a median of 71.6 months (IQR 34.5-149.9), during which 1,819 (13%) developed incident T2D. Cox multiple regression analysis revealed a significant inverse association between LDL-C plasma levels and incident T2D (p < 0.001). When stratifying LDL-C into quartiles [i.e. low (< 84 mg/dL), medium (≥ 84 to < 107 mg/dL), high (≥ 107 to < 131 mg/dL), and very high (≥ 131 mg/dL)], we observed that patients with LDL-C < 84 mg/dL had the highest risk of developing T2D. The interaction between statin therapy and T2D incidence was significant only in the very high LDL-C group, where statin users had a greater risk than non-users (p = 0.018); in the other three LDL-C groups, statin therapy did not significantly modify the association between LDL-C and T2D risk.

Conclusions: Taken together, our findings demonstrate a strong inverse association between LDL-C and incident T2D in the general population. The increased risk of T2D at lower LDL-C levels appears to be independent of statin use, supporting the role of LDL-C as a potential biomarker of T2D susceptibility.

背景:他汀类药物治疗与2型糖尿病(T2D)风险增加有关。我们研究了低密度脂蛋白胆固醇(LDL-C)血浆浓度与T2D发生率之间的关系,并在一个基于人群的大型队列中评估了他汀类药物治疗的调节作用。方法:对基线时无T2D和心血管疾病的个体进行纵向随访,观察新发T2D的发展情况。应用Cox比例风险模型评估LDL-C水平和他汀类药物治疗与T2D风险的关系。结果:从202,545人的人群中,我们选择了13,674名无T2D和心血管疾病的参与者(其中52%使用他汀类药物),他们的中位随访时间为71.6个月(IQR 34.5-149.9),在此期间,1,819名(13%)发生了T2D事件。Cox多元回归分析显示LDL-C血浆水平与T2D事件之间存在显著的负相关(p结论:综上所述,我们的研究结果表明,在一般人群中,LDL-C与T2D事件之间存在强烈的负相关。低LDL-C水平下T2D风险的增加似乎与他汀类药物的使用无关,这支持了LDL-C作为T2D易感性的潜在生物标志物的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Artificial intelligence identifies individuals with prediabetes using single-lead electrocardiograms. 人工智能通过单导联心电图识别糖尿病前期患者。
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-11 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02982-4
Daisuke Koga, Ryo Kaneda, Chikara Komiya, Satoshi Ohno, Akira Takeuchi, Kazunari Hara, Masato Horino, Jun Aoki, Rei Okazaki, Ryoko Ishii, Masanori Murakami, Kazutaka Tsujimoto, Kenji Ikeda, Hideki Katagiri, Hideyuki Shimizu, Tetsuya Yamada

Background: Early detection of prediabetes is crucial for diabetes prevention, yet it remains challenging due to its asymptomatic nature and low screening rates. This study aimed to develop and rigorously validate artificial intelligence (AI) models to identify individuals with prediabetes solely using electrocardiograms (ECGs).

Methods: We defined prediabetes/diabetes based on fasting plasma glucose ≥ 110 mg/dL, hemoglobin A1c ≥ 6.0%, or ongoing diabetes treatment. From a primary cohort of 16,766 health checkup records, 269 ECG features were extracted to develop a novel AI model. The final model was subsequently evaluated using an internal held-out test dataset and an independent external validation cohort (n = 2,456). SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to assess feature importance and clinical interpretability.

Results: The best-performing model, a LightGBM-based algorithm we termed DiaCardia, achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.851 in the internal test dataset (sensitivity: 85.7%, specificity: 70.0%). The model demonstrated robust generalizability, achieving an AUROC of 0.785 in the external validation cohort. Furthermore, DiaCardia maintained substantial predictive ability (AUROC: 0.789) after adjustment for six major confounders using propensity score matching. Higher R-wave amplitude in leads aVL and I, and smaller peak interval dispersion were prominent predictors. Notably, a version of DiaCardia using only single-lead (lead I) ECG data achieved a comparable AUROC of 0.844 (sensitivity: 82.3%; specificity: 70.2%).

Conclusions: This study establishes that an AI model, DiaCardia, can accurately identify individuals with prediabetes from an ECG alone, with performance that is robust across different patient cohorts and independent of major clinical confounders. Our highly generalizable, single-lead DiaCardia model offers a promising solution for scalable prediabetes screening via wearable devices, potentially enabling early, home-based detection and transforming diabetes prevention strategies.

背景:糖尿病前期的早期发现对糖尿病的预防至关重要,但由于其无症状性和低筛查率,仍然具有挑战性。本研究旨在开发和严格验证人工智能(AI)模型,仅使用心电图(ECGs)来识别糖尿病前期患者。方法:我们根据空腹血糖≥110 mg/dL,血红蛋白A1c≥6.0%或正在接受糖尿病治疗来定义前驱糖尿病/糖尿病。从16,766份健康检查记录的主要队列中,提取了269个ECG特征以开发新的人工智能模型。最终模型随后使用内部测试数据集和独立的外部验证队列(n = 2,456)进行评估。应用SHapley加性解释(SHapley Additive explanation)评价特征的重要性和临床可解释性。结果:表现最好的模型是基于lightgbm的算法,我们称之为DiaCardia,在内部测试数据集中,受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUROC)为0.851(灵敏度:85.7%,特异性:70.0%)。该模型显示出强大的通用性,在外部验证队列中实现了0.785的AUROC。此外,在使用倾向评分匹配对六个主要混杂因素进行调整后,DiaCardia保持了可观的预测能力(AUROC: 0.789)。导联aVL和I较高的r波振幅和较小的峰间弥散是显著的预测因子。值得注意的是,仅使用单导联(I导联)心电图数据的DiaCardia版本的AUROC为0.844(敏感性:82.3%,特异性:70.2%)。结论:本研究表明,人工智能模型DiaCardia可以仅通过心电图准确识别糖尿病前期患者,其表现在不同患者队列中都很稳健,且不受主要临床混杂因素的影响。我们高度通用的单导DiaCardia模型通过可穿戴设备为可扩展的糖尿病前期筛查提供了一个有前景的解决方案,有可能实现早期、家庭检测和改变糖尿病预防策略。
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引用次数: 0
Electronic nose for detecting abnormal glucose metabolism in heart transplant recipients. 用于检测心脏移植受者糖代谢异常的电子鼻。
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-10 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02970-8
Nynke Wijbenga, Annelot J Muntinga, Marleen M Goedendorp-Sluimer, Britt C J van Dijk, Stefan Roest, Jasper J Brugts, Kadir Caliskan, Alina A Constantinescu, Adrienne A M Zandbergen, Daniel Bos, Merel E Hellemons, Olivier C Manintveld

Background: Post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) affects up to 34% of heart transplant recipients (HTR) within five years, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Although the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is the most sensitive method for detecting prediabetes and diabetes, it is burdensome. This study evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of exhaled breath analysis using an electronic nose (eNose) as a non-invasive alternative for detecting prediabetes or PTDM.

Methods: HTR > one year post-transplant undergoing OGTT were included, along with fasting HTR with known PTDM as a control group. Exhaled breath was analyzed before glucose loading using the SpiroNose. Diagnostic performance of eNose parameters alone and combined with clinical variables was assessed using multivariate logistic regression.

Results: Seventy-six HTR were included (29% female, median age 56 years, median 7.8 years post-transplant). Of these, 18 had normal glucose tolerance, 33 had prediabetes, and 25 had PTDM (including 8 newly diagnosed). Overall, 76% had prediabetes or PTDM. eNose alone differentiated normal from abnormal glucose tolerance (prediabetes or PTDM) with an AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.83), 68% accuracy, 69% sensitivity, 67% specificity, 40% negative predictive value (NPV), and 87% positive predictive value (PPV). Combining eNose with clinical parameters improved diagnostic performance (AUROC 0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.96), achieving 78% accuracy, 71% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 51% NPV, and 100% PPV.

Conclusions: Prediabetes or PTDM is common in HTR. eNose technology, especially when combined with clinical data, shows promise as a non-invasive screening tool with high specificity and PPV. This approach may reduce OGTT burden, pending further confirmation.

背景:移植后糖尿病(PTDM)在5年内影响高达34%的心脏移植受者(HTR),增加了不良后果的风险。虽然口服葡萄糖耐量试验(OGTT)是检测糖尿病前期和糖尿病最敏感的方法,但它是负担。本研究评估了呼气分析的诊断准确性,使用电子鼻(eNose)作为检测前驱糖尿病或PTDM的非侵入性替代方法。方法:纳入移植后1年接受OGTT的HTR,以及已知PTDM的空腹HTR作为对照组。在葡萄糖负荷前分析呼出气体。使用多因素logistic回归评估单独和联合临床变量的eNose参数的诊断性能。结果:纳入76例HTR(29%为女性,中位年龄56岁,中位移植后7.8年)。其中,18人葡萄糖耐量正常,33人患有糖尿病前期,25人患有PTDM(其中8人是新诊断的)。总体而言,76%的人患有糖尿病前期或PTDM。单独使用eNose区分正常与异常葡萄糖耐量(糖尿病前期或PTDM), AUROC为0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.83),准确率68%,灵敏度69%,特异性67%,阴性预测值(NPV) 40%,阳性预测值(PPV) 87%。将eNose与临床参数相结合可提高诊断性能(AUROC 0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.96),达到78%的准确率、71%的敏感性、100%的特异性、51%的NPV和100%的PPV。结论:前驱糖尿病或PTDM在HTR中很常见。eNose技术,特别是与临床数据相结合,显示出作为一种具有高特异性和PPV的非侵入性筛查工具的前景。这种方法可能减少OGTT负担,有待进一步确认。
{"title":"Electronic nose for detecting abnormal glucose metabolism in heart transplant recipients.","authors":"Nynke Wijbenga, Annelot J Muntinga, Marleen M Goedendorp-Sluimer, Britt C J van Dijk, Stefan Roest, Jasper J Brugts, Kadir Caliskan, Alina A Constantinescu, Adrienne A M Zandbergen, Daniel Bos, Merel E Hellemons, Olivier C Manintveld","doi":"10.1186/s12933-025-02970-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12933-025-02970-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Post-transplant diabetes mellitus (PTDM) affects up to 34% of heart transplant recipients (HTR) within five years, increasing the risk of adverse outcomes. Although the oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) is the most sensitive method for detecting prediabetes and diabetes, it is burdensome. This study evaluates the diagnostic accuracy of exhaled breath analysis using an electronic nose (eNose) as a non-invasive alternative for detecting prediabetes or PTDM.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>HTR > one year post-transplant undergoing OGTT were included, along with fasting HTR with known PTDM as a control group. Exhaled breath was analyzed before glucose loading using the SpiroNose. Diagnostic performance of eNose parameters alone and combined with clinical variables was assessed using multivariate logistic regression.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Seventy-six HTR were included (29% female, median age 56 years, median 7.8 years post-transplant). Of these, 18 had normal glucose tolerance, 33 had prediabetes, and 25 had PTDM (including 8 newly diagnosed). Overall, 76% had prediabetes or PTDM. eNose alone differentiated normal from abnormal glucose tolerance (prediabetes or PTDM) with an AUROC of 0.70 (95% CI 0.57-0.83), 68% accuracy, 69% sensitivity, 67% specificity, 40% negative predictive value (NPV), and 87% positive predictive value (PPV). Combining eNose with clinical parameters improved diagnostic performance (AUROC 0.88, 95% CI 0.81-0.96), achieving 78% accuracy, 71% sensitivity, 100% specificity, 51% NPV, and 100% PPV.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>Prediabetes or PTDM is common in HTR. eNose technology, especially when combined with clinical data, shows promise as a non-invasive screening tool with high specificity and PPV. This approach may reduce OGTT burden, pending further confirmation.</p>","PeriodicalId":9374,"journal":{"name":"Cardiovascular Diabetology","volume":"24 1","pages":"428"},"PeriodicalIF":10.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12604169/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145488058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Pgk1 activation restores endothelial metabolic homeostasis to alleviate vascular aging and atherosclerosis. 激活Pgk1恢复内皮代谢稳态,缓解血管老化和动脉粥样硬化。
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02976-2
Jinhong Lu, Jianji Wang, Yu Liu, Cuntai Zhang, Guojun Zhang, Yipeng Ge, Lei Liu

Terazosin (TZ), a well-known antagonist of the α1-adrenergic receptor (α1-AR), has demonstrated protective effects on vascular endothelial cells (ECs) and reduced vascular stiffness in clinical studies. Endothelial dysfunction and oxidative stress are central drivers of cardiometabolic diseases such as diabetes, where sustained ROS burden accelerates EC senescence and barrier failure. These findings suggest its potential role in combating vascular aging and atherosclerosis; however, the underlying mechanisms remain partially understood. In this study, we investigated whether TZ can prevent atherosclerosis in ApoE-/- mice fed a high-cholesterol diet and aimed to elucidate the mechanisms involved. Our results showed that TZ significantly reduced plaque size, EC senescence, vascular permeability, and reactive oxygen species (ROS) levels, effectively inhibiting atherosclerosis independently of α1-AR signaling. In cultured primary human umbilical vein ECs (HUVECs), TZ inhibited EC senescence via the Pgk1/Hsp90 pathway. It enhanced the interaction between Hsp90 and the antioxidant enzyme peroxiredoxin 1 (Prdx1), leading to lower ROS levels-a key driver of cellular senescence. These findings were confirmed in atherosclerotic ApoE-/- mice. Furthermore, senescent ECs exhibited increased levels of vascular endothelial growth factor A (VEGFA) and decreased levels of angiostatin, contributing to higher vascular permeability and exacerbating atherosclerosis. TZ effectively reversed these changes. Overall, our study demonstrates that TZ primarily alleviates EC senescence and atherosclerosis through the Pgk1/Hsp90/Prdx1 pathway, highlighting Pgk1 activation as a strategy that may also mitigate endothelial dysfunction and oxidative stress in broader cardiometabolic contexts (e.g., diabetes), suggesting that TZ is a promising senomorphic agent for treating vascular aging and atherosclerosis in clinical settings and that Pgk1-targeted interventions could have implications beyond atherosclerosis.

泰瑞唑嗪(Terazosin, TZ)是一种著名的α1-肾上腺素能受体(α1-AR)拮抗剂,在临床研究中显示出对血管内皮细胞(ECs)的保护作用和降低血管硬度的作用。内皮功能障碍和氧化应激是糖尿病等心脏代谢疾病的主要驱动因素,其中持续的ROS负担加速了EC衰老和屏障失效。这些发现表明它在对抗血管老化和动脉粥样硬化方面的潜在作用;然而,潜在的机制仍然被部分理解。在本研究中,我们研究了TZ是否可以预防高胆固醇饮食的ApoE-/-小鼠动脉粥样硬化,旨在阐明其机制。我们的研究结果表明,TZ可显著降低斑块大小、EC衰老、血管通透性和活性氧(ROS)水平,有效抑制动脉粥样硬化,不依赖α1-AR信号传导。在培养的原代人脐静脉内皮细胞(HUVECs)中,TZ通过Pgk1/Hsp90途径抑制内皮细胞衰老。它增强了Hsp90与抗氧化酶过氧化物还蛋白1 (Prdx1)之间的相互作用,导致ROS水平降低——这是细胞衰老的关键驱动因素。这些发现在动脉粥样硬化的ApoE-/-小鼠中得到证实。此外,衰老的内皮细胞表现出血管内皮生长因子A (VEGFA)水平升高和血管抑制素水平降低,导致血管通透性升高,加剧动脉粥样硬化。TZ有效地扭转了这些变化。总的来说,我们的研究表明,TZ主要通过Pgk1/Hsp90/Prdx1途径缓解EC衰老和动脉粥样硬化,强调Pgk1激活作为一种策略,也可能减轻更广泛的心脏代谢背景下(如糖尿病)的内皮功能障碍和氧化应激。这表明TZ是治疗血管老化和动脉粥样硬化的一种有前景的同种药物,并且pgk1靶向干预可能具有动脉粥样硬化以外的意义。
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引用次数: 0
Neurodegeneration onset with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in people with type 2 diabetes: a real-world multinational cohort study. 2型糖尿病患者中胰高血糖素样肽-1受体激动剂的神经变性发病:一项真实世界的多国队列研究
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02962-8
Meir Schechter, Alisa Fishkin, Ofri Mosenzon, Dvora R Sehtman-Shachar, Tali Cukierman-Yaffe, Gil Leibowitz, Genya Aharon-Hananel

Background: Type 2 diabetes (T2D), affecting approximately 12% of the global population and over 30% of older adults, is among the most prevalent and fast-growing risk factors for neurodegenerative disorders. Evidence is lacking on whether specific glucose-lowering agents may reduce the risk of neurodegeneration onset in people living with T2D.

Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, we utilized the TriNetX platform, which contains electronic health records of over 170 million people worldwide. We propensity-score matched (1:1) people with T2D lacking evidence of neurodegeneration who initiated glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) (2010-2021). In a separate analytical cohort, we compared individuals initiating GLP-1 RA with those initiating basal insulin. Follow-up continued for ≤ 5 years. We used Cox proportional-hazard regression models to assess the risk of the composite outcome of developing new neurodegenerative conditions, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, dementia subtypes, and other synucleinopathies. We also assessed each component individually. Analyses were repeated among subgroups defined by sex, age, and the specific GLP-1 RA initiated.

Results: Overall, 214,442 matched individuals initiated GLP-1 RAs or DPP4i (109,731 women, mean age 58.6 years [SD 12], and mean HbA1c 7.7% [1.4]). During a 4.0-year mean follow-up, neurodegenerative disorder onset occurred in 2,393 (2.2%) and 3,062 (2.9%) people initiating GLP-1 RAs and DPP4i, respectively (hazard ratio of 0.81 [95% CI 0.77 to 0.86]; absolute risk difference - 0.6% [- 0.8 to - 0.5]). The associations were separately observed among women (0.78 [0.72 to 0.84]) and men (0.90 [0.83 to 0.98]), individuals aged ≥ 65 years old (0.82 [0.78 to 0.87]) or < 65 years old (0.84 [0.70 to 1.00]), and in those initiating semaglutide (0.75 [0.67 to 0.84]), liraglutide (0.77 [0.70 to 0.84]), or dulaglutide (0.82 [0.77 to 0.88]). The hazard ratios for dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and Parkinson's disease onset were 0.76 [0.72 to 0.81], 0.77 [0.68 to 0.87], 0.75 [0.67 to 0.85], and 1.04 [0.93 to 1.17] with GLP-1 RAs versus DPP4i, respectively. The results were in the same direction when comparing individuals initiating GLP-1 RAs with those initiating basal insulin.

Conclusions: In a real-world cohort of people living with T2D with a multinational representation, the initiation of GLP-1 RAs, compared to DPP4i or basal insulin, was associated with a lower risk of new-onset neurodegeneration. These data support the rationale for dedicated clinical trials to assess the potential neuroprotective properties of GLP-1 RAs in this population.

背景:2型糖尿病(T2D)影响全球约12%的人口和超过30%的老年人,是神经退行性疾病最普遍和增长最快的危险因素之一。缺乏证据表明,特定的降糖药是否可以降低糖尿病患者发生神经变性的风险。方法:在这项回顾性队列研究中,我们利用TriNetX平台,该平台包含全球超过1.7亿人的电子健康记录。我们倾向评分匹配(1:1)没有神经变性证据的t2dm患者,他们开始使用胰高血糖素样肽-1受体激动剂(GLP-1 RAs)或二肽基肽酶-4抑制剂(DPP4i)(2010-2021)。在一个单独的分析队列中,我们比较了启动GLP-1 RA和启动基础胰岛素的个体。随访时间≤5年。我们使用Cox比例风险回归模型来评估发生新的神经退行性疾病(包括阿尔茨海默病、帕金森病、痴呆亚型和其他突触核蛋白病)的复合结局的风险。我们还单独评估了每个组件。在按性别、年龄和特定GLP-1 RA启动的亚组中重复分析。结果:总体而言,214,442名匹配个体启动了GLP-1 RAs或DPP4i(109,731名女性,平均年龄58.6岁[SD 12],平均HbA1c为7.7%[1.4])。在平均4年的随访期间,分别有2,393(2.2%)和3,062(2.9%)人开始使用GLP-1 RAs和DPP4i(风险比为0.81 [95% CI 0.77至0.86];绝对风险差为0.6%[- 0.8至- 0.5])。在女性(0.78[0.72至0.84])和男性(0.90[0.83至0.98])、年龄≥65岁的个体(0.82[0.78至0.87])中分别观察到这种关联。结论:在一个具有跨国代表的t2dm患者的现实世界队列中,与DPP4i或基础胰岛素相比,GLP-1 RAs的起始与新发神经变性的风险较低相关。这些数据支持了专门的临床试验的基本原理,以评估GLP-1 RAs在该人群中的潜在神经保护特性。
{"title":"Neurodegeneration onset with glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists in people with type 2 diabetes: a real-world multinational cohort study.","authors":"Meir Schechter, Alisa Fishkin, Ofri Mosenzon, Dvora R Sehtman-Shachar, Tali Cukierman-Yaffe, Gil Leibowitz, Genya Aharon-Hananel","doi":"10.1186/s12933-025-02962-8","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12933-025-02962-8","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Type 2 diabetes (T2D), affecting approximately 12% of the global population and over 30% of older adults, is among the most prevalent and fast-growing risk factors for neurodegenerative disorders. Evidence is lacking on whether specific glucose-lowering agents may reduce the risk of neurodegeneration onset in people living with T2D.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>In this retrospective cohort study, we utilized the TriNetX platform, which contains electronic health records of over 170 million people worldwide. We propensity-score matched (1:1) people with T2D lacking evidence of neurodegeneration who initiated glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) or dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i) (2010-2021). In a separate analytical cohort, we compared individuals initiating GLP-1 RA with those initiating basal insulin. Follow-up continued for ≤ 5 years. We used Cox proportional-hazard regression models to assess the risk of the composite outcome of developing new neurodegenerative conditions, including Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, dementia subtypes, and other synucleinopathies. We also assessed each component individually. Analyses were repeated among subgroups defined by sex, age, and the specific GLP-1 RA initiated.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Overall, 214,442 matched individuals initiated GLP-1 RAs or DPP4i (109,731 women, mean age 58.6 years [SD 12], and mean HbA1c 7.7% [1.4]). During a 4.0-year mean follow-up, neurodegenerative disorder onset occurred in 2,393 (2.2%) and 3,062 (2.9%) people initiating GLP-1 RAs and DPP4i, respectively (hazard ratio of 0.81 [95% CI 0.77 to 0.86]; absolute risk difference - 0.6% [- 0.8 to - 0.5]). The associations were separately observed among women (0.78 [0.72 to 0.84]) and men (0.90 [0.83 to 0.98]), individuals aged ≥ 65 years old (0.82 [0.78 to 0.87]) or < 65 years old (0.84 [0.70 to 1.00]), and in those initiating semaglutide (0.75 [0.67 to 0.84]), liraglutide (0.77 [0.70 to 0.84]), or dulaglutide (0.82 [0.77 to 0.88]). The hazard ratios for dementia, Alzheimer's disease, vascular dementia, and Parkinson's disease onset were 0.76 [0.72 to 0.81], 0.77 [0.68 to 0.87], 0.75 [0.67 to 0.85], and 1.04 [0.93 to 1.17] with GLP-1 RAs versus DPP4i, respectively. The results were in the same direction when comparing individuals initiating GLP-1 RAs with those initiating basal insulin.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>In a real-world cohort of people living with T2D with a multinational representation, the initiation of GLP-1 RAs, compared to DPP4i or basal insulin, was associated with a lower risk of new-onset neurodegeneration. These data support the rationale for dedicated clinical trials to assess the potential neuroprotective properties of GLP-1 RAs in this population.</p>","PeriodicalId":9374,"journal":{"name":"Cardiovascular Diabetology","volume":"24 1","pages":"426"},"PeriodicalIF":10.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12595915/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145470744","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Correction: Is pulmonary vascular remodeling an intermediate link between hyperglycemia and adverse outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension? Insights from a multi-center cohort study. 纠正:肺血管重构是特发性肺动脉高压患者高血糖和不良结局之间的中间联系吗?来自多中心队列研究的见解。
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-07 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02994-0
Sicheng Zhang, Luyang Gao, Sicong Li, Manqing Luo, Qunying Xi, Ping Lin, Zhihui Zhao, Qing Zhao, Tao Yang, Qixian Zeng, Zhihua Huang, Xin Li, Anqi Duan, Yijia Wang, Qin Luo, Yansong Guo, Zhihong Liu
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引用次数: 0
Sex differences in the prognostic value of urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio for coronary artery disease and cardiovascular events in people with type 2 diabetes and normoalbuminuria. 尿白蛋白与肌酐比值对2型糖尿病和正常蛋白尿患者冠状动脉疾病和心血管事件的预后价值的性别差异
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-06 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02996-y
Orlando Siverio-Morales, Ainhoa González-Luis, Carmen Mora-Fernández, Carolina Hernández-Carballo, Alberto Martín-Olivera, Juan F Navarro-González, Javier Donate-Correa

Background: Urinary albumin excretion is an established marker of cardiovascular (CV) risk in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, its prognostic significance within the normoalbuminuric range (< 30 mg/g) remains uncertain, particularly regarding sex-specific differences. This study examined whether urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR; KDIGO A1 range) is associated with coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and 6-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in women and in men with T2DM and preserved kidney function (eGFR > 60 mL/min/1.73 m², UACR < 30 mg/g), treating sex differences as a co-primary objective.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study involving adults with T2DM who underwent diagnostic coronary angiography. Baseline associations between log-transformed UACR, CAD severity, CV risk factors, and inflammatory markers were evaluated using multivariable linear regression. MACE (defined as non-fatal myocardial infarction or unstable angina requiring urgent revascularization, stroke, or CV death) were recorded during 6-year of follow-up. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, BMI, lipid profile, hs-CRP, and ACEI/ARB use, were used to assess UACR-MACE associations.

Results: We included 420 adults (180 women, 42.9%) with a mean of age 65.3 ± 10.7 years and a median UACR 7.56 mg/g (IQR 4.12-15.5). Significant CAD was present in 310 participants (73.8%), and 78 experienced MACE during follow-up (35.5%). Higher UACR was independently associated with greater coronary stenosis (adjusted R² = 0.090, p < 0.001). Kaplan-Meier analysis showed a significantly higher incidence of MACE in the highest UACR tertile (log-rank p = 0.039). In multivariable Cox models adjusted for age, sex, hypertension, smoking, lipid profile, hs-CRP, SSI, and ACEI/ARB use, higher log-UACR independently predicted MACE (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.35-2.10; p < 0.01). In sex-stratified Cox models, higher log-UACR predicted MACE in both sexes and remained independently associated in multivariable analyses (adjusted HR 1.67, 95% CI 1.35-2.10; p < 0.01). Associations were directionally stronger in women, who showed higher cumulative event rates across UACR tertiles, although the formal UACR × sex interaction did not reach statistical significance.

Conclusions: Within the normoalbuminuric range, UACR is associated with greater CAD burden and higher 6-year MACE risk, with sex-specific differences. These findings suggest potential sex-related variation in the prognostic value of high-normal albuminuria, particularly among women, warranting validation in larger and more diverse cohorts.

背景:尿白蛋白排泄是2型糖尿病(T2DM)患者心血管(CV)风险的一个确定标志。然而,其在正常蛋白尿范围内(60 mL/min/1.73 m²)的预后意义,UACR方法:我们进行了一项回顾性队列研究,纳入了接受诊断性冠状动脉造影的成年T2DM患者。使用多变量线性回归评估对数转换后的UACR、CAD严重程度、CV危险因素和炎症标志物之间的基线相关性。MACE(定义为需要紧急血运重建的非致死性心肌梗死或不稳定型心绞痛、卒中或CV死亡)在6年随访期间被记录。Cox比例风险模型经年龄、性别、高血压、吸烟、BMI、血脂、hs-CRP和ACEI/ARB使用调整后,用于评估UACR-MACE的相关性。结果:我们纳入了420名成年人(180名女性,42.9%),平均年龄65.3±10.7岁,中位UACR为7.56 mg/g (IQR为4.12-15.5)。310名参与者(73.8%)出现了显著的CAD, 78名参与者在随访期间经历了MACE(35.5%)。较高的UACR与较大的冠状动脉狭窄独立相关(校正后R²= 0.090,p)。结论:在正常蛋白尿范围内,UACR与较大的CAD负担和较高的6年MACE风险相关,且存在性别差异。这些发现表明,高正常蛋白尿的预后价值存在潜在的性别相关差异,特别是在女性中,需要在更大、更多样化的队列中进行验证。
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引用次数: 0
Increased high-risk plaque burden in type 2 diabetes: a 10-year follow-up study. 2型糖尿病高危斑块负担增加:一项10年随访研究
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02977-1
Emilie L Gaillard, Sophie H M Cramer, Nordin M J Hanssen, Michiel J Bom, Steven A J Chamuleau, R Nils Planken, Andrew D Choi, S Matthijs Boekholdt, Erik S G Stroes, Paul Knaapen, Nick S Nurmohamed

Background: Using serial coronary CT angiography (CCTA) imaging, we aimed to characterize baseline coronary plaque characteristics and quantify 10-year coronary plaque progression, including high-risk and low-density plaque presence, in patients with and without type 2 diabetes.

Methods: A total of 299 patients underwent CCTA with a median scan interval of 10.2 [IQR 8.7-11.2] years. Patients who underwent coronary artery bypass grafting and vessels revascularized by percutaneous coronary intervention were excluded (n = 32). Scans were analyzed using atherosclerosis imaging-quantitative CCTA analysis (AI-QCT; Cleerly Inc.). Associations between diabetic status, baseline and follow-up plaque burden and characteristics were evaluated using multivariable regression adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, statin use, baseline plaque volumes, and scanner settings.

Results: In total, 267 patients were included (mean age 57 ± 7 years; 43% were women), 44 (16.5%) had type 2 diabetes (HbA1c 56 ± 14 mmol/mol). At baseline, patients with diabetes had a higher percent atheroma volume (PAV) compared to non-diabetic individuals (5.1% [1.7, 10.9] versus 2.2% [0.5, 5.8]). Adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, patients with diabetes had a higher plaque burden at both baseline and follow-up. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors and baseline plaque volumes, individuals with diabetes had a more than threefold higher rate of plaque progression. After 10 years of follow-up, patients with diabetes had a higher prevalence of both high-risk plaque (OR 2.75; 95% CI 1.38-5.48; p = 0.004) and low-density plaque (OR 2.88; 95% CI 1.45-5.70; p = 0.002).

Conclusions: Patients with diabetes had a more than threefold higher rate of coronary plaque progression and an increased development of high-risk plaque.

背景:通过连续冠状动脉CT血管造影(CCTA)成像,我们旨在描述基线冠状动脉斑块特征,量化10年冠状动脉斑块进展,包括高风险和低密度斑块的存在,伴有和不伴有2型糖尿病的患者。方法:299例患者行CCTA,中位扫描间隔10.2年[IQR 8.7-11.2]年。排除行冠状动脉旁路移植术和经皮冠状动脉介入血管重建的患者(n = 32)。扫描结果采用动脉粥样硬化成像定量CCTA分析(AI-QCT; cleely Inc.)。采用多变量回归评估糖尿病状态、基线和随访斑块负担和特征之间的关系,调整心血管危险因素、他汀类药物使用、基线斑块体积和扫描仪设置。结果:共纳入267例患者(平均年龄57±7岁,43%为女性),44例(16.5%)患有2型糖尿病(HbA1c 56±14 mmol/mol)。在基线时,糖尿病患者的动脉粥样硬化体积(PAV)百分比高于非糖尿病患者(5.1%[1.7,10.9]对2.2%[0.5,5.8])。调整心血管危险因素后,糖尿病患者在基线和随访时都有更高的斑块负担。在调整心血管危险因素和基线斑块体积后,糖尿病患者的斑块进展率高出三倍以上。经过10年的随访,糖尿病患者的高风险斑块(OR 2.75; 95% CI 1.38-5.48; p = 0.004)和低密度斑块(OR 2.88; 95% CI 1.45-5.70; p = 0.002)的患病率均较高。结论:糖尿病患者的冠状动脉斑块进展率高出三倍以上,高危斑块的发展也增加。
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引用次数: 0
Stress hyperglycemia ratio modulates the impact of organ dysfunction on mortality risk in critically ill patients with atrial fibrillation: insights from the MIMIC-IV database. 应激性高血糖比例调节器官功能障碍对危重心房颤动患者死亡风险的影响:来自MIMIC-IV数据库的见解
IF 10.6 1区 医学 Q1 CARDIAC & CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS Pub Date : 2025-11-05 DOI: 10.1186/s12933-025-02969-1
Huijun Jin, Xuefeng Xu, Bo Zhu, Jinglan Zhang
<p><strong>Background: </strong>Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cardiovascular issue in critically ill patients, linked to elevated mortality rates. The Stress Hyperglycemia Ratio (SHR), a novel metric of glucose control, has shown promise in predicting adverse outcomes in cardiovascular diseases. However, its impact on the relationship between organ dysfunction and mortality in AF remains unclear. This study aims to explore SHR's role in modifying this association to improve risk prediction in critically ill AF patients.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>A retrospective cohort study was performed on MIMIC-IV 3.1 patients with critical illness and AF. The primary endpoints were in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. Patients were stratified by SHR quartiles and categorized into four groups based on combined SHR and SOFA scores. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate Cox regression assessed the association with mortality, and restriction cubic splines (RCS) were used to examine non-linear relationships. Mediation analysis using the Bootstrap method quantified the role of serum bicarbonate. A nomogram was developed with multivariable logistic regression, incorporating SHR, SOFA, and significant covariates from backward selection. The SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) analysis provided insights into predictor contributions.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 15,358 patients included in the cohort, the median age was 66 years (IQR: 55-76), with 56.8% being male. The SHR-SOFA combination significantly stratified patients into four distinct risk groups (Q1-Q4), with the high SHR and high SOFA group (Q4) showing the poorest prognosis at all time points (log-rank P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression confirmed that Q4 had the highest mortality risk across all time points (in-hospital HR: 5.32, 95% CI: 4.31-6.57; 30-day HR: 4.27, 95% CI: 3.62-5.04; 1-year HR: 3.18, 95% CI: 2.82-3.59). RCS analysis indicated a nonlinear correlation between SHR and mortality, with a threshold effect at SHR = 1.0 in low SOFA patients. In contrast, high SOFA patients showed a J-shaped curve, with an ideal SHR of 1.2. The predictive nomogram, validated through backward stepwise regression, included SHR, SOFA score, age, mean arterial pressure (MBP), white blood cell count (WBC), bicarbonate, hemoglobin, sodium, and total calcium as key predictors. SHAP analysis highlighted SHR and SOFA as the most influential predictors, with age also playing a crucial role. Mediation analysis indicated that serum bicarbonate mediated 22.7% of SHR's effect on in-hospital mortality, diminishing over time.</p><p><strong>Conclusions: </strong>This study reveals a notable relationship among SHR and SOFA scores in forecasting mortality among critically sick patients with atrial fibrillation. The developed nomogram integrating SHR, SOFA, and other covariates offers a novel tool for risk stratification. SHAP analysis confirms SHR and SOFA as key predictors, highlighting their c
背景:心房颤动(AF)是危重患者的主要心血管疾病,与死亡率升高有关。应激性高血糖比(SHR)是一种新的血糖控制指标,在预测心血管疾病的不良结局方面显示出前景。然而,其对房颤中器官功能障碍和死亡率之间关系的影响尚不清楚。本研究旨在探讨SHR在改变这种关联以提高危重房颤患者风险预测中的作用。方法:对MIMIC-IV 3.1例危重疾病合并房颤患者进行回顾性队列研究,主要终点为住院死亡率、30天死亡率和1年死亡率。根据SHR四分位数对患者进行分层,并根据SHR和SOFA的综合评分分为四组。Kaplan-Meier生存分析和多变量Cox回归评估了与死亡率的关联,并使用限制性三次样条(RCS)来检验非线性关系。采用Bootstrap方法进行中介分析,量化了血清碳酸氢盐的作用。采用多变量逻辑回归,结合SHR、SOFA和来自逆向选择的显著协变量,形成了一个nomogram。SHapley加性解释(SHAP)分析提供了对预测因子贡献的见解。结果:纳入队列的15358例患者中位年龄为66岁(IQR: 55-76),其中56.8%为男性。SHR-SOFA联合显著地将患者分为四个不同的风险组(Q1-Q4),高SHR和高SOFA组(Q4)在所有时间点预后最差(log-rank P)。结论:本研究揭示了SHR和SOFA评分在预测危重心房颤动患者死亡率方面的显著关系。将SHR、SOFA和其他协变量整合在一起的nomogram为风险分层提供了一种新的工具。SHAP分析证实SHR和SOFA是关键的预测因子,突出了它们在死亡率评估中的临床应用。
{"title":"Stress hyperglycemia ratio modulates the impact of organ dysfunction on mortality risk in critically ill patients with atrial fibrillation: insights from the MIMIC-IV database.","authors":"Huijun Jin, Xuefeng Xu, Bo Zhu, Jinglan Zhang","doi":"10.1186/s12933-025-02969-1","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s12933-025-02969-1","url":null,"abstract":"&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background: &lt;/strong&gt;Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a major cardiovascular issue in critically ill patients, linked to elevated mortality rates. The Stress Hyperglycemia Ratio (SHR), a novel metric of glucose control, has shown promise in predicting adverse outcomes in cardiovascular diseases. However, its impact on the relationship between organ dysfunction and mortality in AF remains unclear. This study aims to explore SHR's role in modifying this association to improve risk prediction in critically ill AF patients.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Methods: &lt;/strong&gt;A retrospective cohort study was performed on MIMIC-IV 3.1 patients with critical illness and AF. The primary endpoints were in-hospital, 30-day, and 1-year mortality. Patients were stratified by SHR quartiles and categorized into four groups based on combined SHR and SOFA scores. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate Cox regression assessed the association with mortality, and restriction cubic splines (RCS) were used to examine non-linear relationships. Mediation analysis using the Bootstrap method quantified the role of serum bicarbonate. A nomogram was developed with multivariable logistic regression, incorporating SHR, SOFA, and significant covariates from backward selection. The SHapley Additive exPlanations(SHAP) analysis provided insights into predictor contributions.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Results: &lt;/strong&gt;Of the 15,358 patients included in the cohort, the median age was 66 years (IQR: 55-76), with 56.8% being male. The SHR-SOFA combination significantly stratified patients into four distinct risk groups (Q1-Q4), with the high SHR and high SOFA group (Q4) showing the poorest prognosis at all time points (log-rank P &lt; 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression confirmed that Q4 had the highest mortality risk across all time points (in-hospital HR: 5.32, 95% CI: 4.31-6.57; 30-day HR: 4.27, 95% CI: 3.62-5.04; 1-year HR: 3.18, 95% CI: 2.82-3.59). RCS analysis indicated a nonlinear correlation between SHR and mortality, with a threshold effect at SHR = 1.0 in low SOFA patients. In contrast, high SOFA patients showed a J-shaped curve, with an ideal SHR of 1.2. The predictive nomogram, validated through backward stepwise regression, included SHR, SOFA score, age, mean arterial pressure (MBP), white blood cell count (WBC), bicarbonate, hemoglobin, sodium, and total calcium as key predictors. SHAP analysis highlighted SHR and SOFA as the most influential predictors, with age also playing a crucial role. Mediation analysis indicated that serum bicarbonate mediated 22.7% of SHR's effect on in-hospital mortality, diminishing over time.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Conclusions: &lt;/strong&gt;This study reveals a notable relationship among SHR and SOFA scores in forecasting mortality among critically sick patients with atrial fibrillation. The developed nomogram integrating SHR, SOFA, and other covariates offers a novel tool for risk stratification. SHAP analysis confirms SHR and SOFA as key predictors, highlighting their c","PeriodicalId":9374,"journal":{"name":"Cardiovascular Diabetology","volume":"24 1","pages":"422"},"PeriodicalIF":10.6,"publicationDate":"2025-11-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC12587582/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145450953","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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Cardiovascular Diabetology
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