China CDC Weekly最新文献

What is already known about this topic?: Allergic diseases have affected an estimated 40% of the population in China. However, our understanding of the full spectrum of these diseases remains insufficient.

What is added by this report?: Between 2018 and 2021, Yichang City documented 625,929 outpatient visits mainly related to skin and mucous membrane allergies (77.90%) and allergic respiratory conditions (19.64%). In 2021, the occurrence of outpatient visits for conditions such as allergic rhinitis, acute atopic conjunctivitis, and atopic dermatitis increased. The demographic analysis revealed that male patients comprised the majority of the under 18 age bracket (56.05%), while female patients were predominantly represented in the 18 to 65 age bracket (61.79%).

What are the implications for public health practice?: This constitutes the first analysis of the spectrum of allergic diseases, utilizing regional outpatient data, which has substantial implications for understanding the disease burden.

Introduction: Varicella, a prevalent respiratory infection among children, has become an escalating public health issue in China. The potential to considerably mitigate and control these outbreaks lies in surveillance-based early warning systems. This research employed an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model with the objective of predicting future varicella outbreaks in the country.

Methods: An ARIMA model was developed and fine-tuned using historical data on the monthly instances of varicella outbreaks reported in China from 2005 to 2018. To determine statistically significant models, parameter and Ljung-Box tests were employed. The coefficients of determination (R²) and the normalized Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) were compared to selecting an optimal model. This chosen model was subsequently utilized to forecast varicella outbreak cases for the year 2019.

Results: Four models passed parameter (all P<0.05) and Ljung-Box tests (all P>0.05). ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)₁₂ was determined to be the optimal model based on its coefficient of determination R² (0.271) and standardized BIC (14.970). Fitted values made by the ARIMA (1, 1, 1)×(0, 1, 1)₁₂ model closely followed the values observed in 2019, the average relative error between the actual value and the predicted value is 15.2%.

Conclusion: The ARIMA model can be employed to predict impending trends in varicella outbreaks. This serves to offer a scientific benchmark for strategies concerning varicella prevention and control.

Introduction: The efficacy of treatment and clinical outcomes may be jeopardized by factors such as transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and the genetic diversity of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). This comprehensive study aims to examine the alterations in HIV-1 subtypes or sub-subtypes and TDR among Chinese individuals, who have been diagnosed with HIV infection and are previously untreated with antiretroviral therapy (ART), across the span of 2004 to 2022.

Methods: Sequences of the HIV-1 pol gene region were obtained from ART-naïve HIV-positive individuals across 31 provincial-level administrative divisions between 2004 and 2022. To predict susceptibility to 12 antiretroviral drugs, the research utilized the Stanford HIV Drug Resistance Database. The Cochran-Armitage trend test facilitated the analysis of changes in HIV-1 subtype/sub-subtype prevalence and TDR. This analysis was conducted in alignment with the progression of the National Free Antiretroviral Treatment Program's stages between 2004 and 2022.

Results: Among the 57,902 ART-naïve individuals infected with HIV, there was a notable decline in the prevalence of CRF01_AE, B, and C from 37.3%, 24.1%, and 1.3% respectively in 2004-2007 to 29.4%, 7.3%, and 0.2% respectively in 2020-2022. Simultaneously, a significant increase was observed in the proportions of CRF07_BC, CRF08_BC, CRF55_01B, other CRFs, and URFs, from 24.1%, 11.5%, 0.1%, 0.4%, and 0.9% respectively in 2004-2007 to 40.8%, 11.5%, 3.8%, 3.7%, and 2.8% respectively in 2020-2022 (all P<0.001 for trend). The prevalence of TDR to overall, non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI), efavirenz, and nevirapine also significantly increased from 2.6%, 1.8%, 1.6%, and 1.8% respectively in 2004-2007 to 7.8%, 6.7%, 6.3%, and 6.7% respectively in 2020-2022 (all P<0.001 for trend). However, there were no meaningful changes in the TDR prevalence of nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and protease inhibitor. Notably, in 2020-2022, the overall TDR prevalence exceeded 15% in Xinjiang.

Conclusions: The total prevalence of TDR in China has achieved a moderate level (7.8%) from 2020 to 2022, with NNRTI resistance standing prominently at 6.7%. Consequently, measures to curb TDR are urgently required, particularly among ART-naïve HIV-infected individuals in China.

Introduction: Liver cancer and cirrhosis represent the most prevalent forms of end-stage liver diseases (ESLDs). Notably, in China, deaths attributed to ESLDs contribute significantly to the global mortality rate of these disorders. Enhanced comprehension of the mortality profile associated with ESLDs in China could provide crucial insights into intervention prioritization, which could in turn help reduce the overall global burden of these diseases.

Methods: Data were obtained from China's Disease Surveillance Points system. The presentation includes both crude and age-standardized mortality rates, stratified by sex, residential location, and region. Using Joinpoint Regression, trends in annual mortality rates were estimated from the period of 2008 to 2020 and expressed as the average annual percentage change (AAPC).

Results: In 2020, the gross mortality rate of ESLD stood at 30.08 cases per 100,000 individuals. A higher age-standardized ESLD mortality rate was observed in males and rural populations in comparison to their female and urban counterparts, respectively. Noticeably, the highest mortality rates associated with liver cancer and cirrhosis were reported in South and Southwest China, respectively. A positive correlation was noticed between age-specific ESLD mortality rates and advancing age. Interestingly, an annual decrease in the ESLD mortality rate was observed from 2008 to 2020. In urban contexts, the AAPC of cirrhosis was noted to be higher than that of liver cancer.

Conclusions: The mortality rate associated with ESLDs in China decreased between 2008 and 2020. Nevertheless, the death burden attributable to ESLD continues to be alarmingly high. Future initiatives should prioritize the reduction of ESLD mortality in particular populations: males, elderly individuals, and those residing in rural regions of South and Southwest China. The emphasis of future interventions should be placed on antiviral therapy for adults diagnosed with viral hepatitis, and on the prevention of hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection across all demographics.

What is already known about this topic?: The heat health early warning model serves as an effective strategy for reducing health risks related to heatwaves and improving population adaptability. Several high-income countries have taken the lead in conducting research and implementing measures aimed at safeguarding their populations.

What is added by this report?: The graded heat health risk early warning model (GHREWM) in Jinan City has demonstrated efficacy in safeguarding males, females, individuals aged above 75 years, and those with cardiopulmonary diseases. During the summer of 2022, the warning stage of GHREWM contributed to the prevention of 10.9 deaths per million individuals, concurrently averting health-related economic losses estimated at approximately 227 million Chinese Yuan (CNY).

What are the implications for public health practice?: The GHREWM has the potential to enhance cities' adaptability to climate change. It is crucial to incorporate additional adverse health endpoint data in the development of early warning models, as this will improve their applicability and protective efficacy.