Pub Date : 2023-03-07DOI: 10.24425/cejeme.2023.144998
Joanna Dȩbicka, S. Heilpern, A. Marciniuk
Accurate determination of the probability structure of the multistate model is significant from the valuation and profitability assessment of insurance contracts standpoint. This article aims to analyse the effect of spouses’ future lifetime dependence on premiums and prospective reserves for marriage insurance contracts. As a result, under the assumptions that the evolution of the insured risk is described by a nonhomogeneous Markov chain and the dependence between spouses’ future lifetime is modelled by the copula, we derive formulas for the elements of the transition matrices. Based on actual data, we conduct a comparative analysis of actuarial values for three scenarios related to future lifetimes of husband and wife. We test the robustness of premium value to the changing degree of dependency between spouses’ future lifetimes.
{"title":"Pricing Marriage Insurance with Mortality Dependence","authors":"Joanna Dȩbicka, S. Heilpern, A. Marciniuk","doi":"10.24425/cejeme.2023.144998","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24425/cejeme.2023.144998","url":null,"abstract":"Accurate determination of the probability structure of the multistate model is significant from the valuation and profitability assessment of insurance contracts standpoint. This article aims to analyse the effect of spouses’ future lifetime dependence on premiums and prospective reserves for marriage insurance contracts. As a result, under the assumptions that the evolution of the insured risk is described by a nonhomogeneous Markov chain and the dependence between spouses’ future lifetime is modelled by the copula, we derive formulas for the elements of the transition matrices. Based on actual data, we conduct a comparative analysis of actuarial values for three scenarios related to future lifetimes of husband and wife. We test the robustness of premium value to the changing degree of dependency between spouses’ future lifetimes.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47913203","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-07DOI: 10.24425/cejeme.2023.144997
Mehmet Burak Turgut, Tomasz Tratkiewicz
We estimate the size of income underreporting in Poland by following and extending the consumption method of Pissarides and Weber (1989). Our study shows that underreporting of income occurs among households with income from self-employment. We do not find any significant underreporting activity by the employees working in the private sector. The main findings indicate that roughly one-fourth of the total income of self-employed households is not reported in Poland. This share varies between 20 to 30 percent from 2005 to 2017 with a decreasing trend.
{"title":"Estimate of the Underground Economy in Poland Based on Household Expenditures and Incomes","authors":"Mehmet Burak Turgut, Tomasz Tratkiewicz","doi":"10.24425/cejeme.2023.144997","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24425/cejeme.2023.144997","url":null,"abstract":"We estimate the size of income underreporting in Poland by following and extending the consumption method of Pissarides and Weber (1989). Our study shows that underreporting of income occurs among households with income from self-employment. We do not find any significant underreporting activity by the employees working in the private sector. The main findings indicate that roughly one-fourth of the total income of self-employed households is not reported in Poland. This share varies between 20 to 30 percent from 2005 to 2017 with a decreasing trend.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41589424","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-03-07DOI: 10.24425/cejeme.2023.144999
{"title":"State-Owned Enterprises and Endogenous Growth","authors":"","doi":"10.24425/cejeme.2023.144999","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24425/cejeme.2023.144999","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42757220","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-21DOI: 10.24425/cejeme.2022.144202
{"title":"Study of Actuarial Characteristics of One-Year and Ultimate Reserve Risk Distributions Based on Market Data","authors":"","doi":"10.24425/cejeme.2022.144202","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24425/cejeme.2022.144202","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49095374","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-21DOI: 10.24425/cejeme.2022.144203
{"title":"Type II Exponentiated Half-Logistic-Gompertz Topp-Leone-G Family of Distributions with Applications","authors":"","doi":"10.24425/cejeme.2022.144203","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24425/cejeme.2022.144203","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43530040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-02-21DOI: 10.24425/cejeme.2022.144201
{"title":"Determinants of the VAT Gap in EU Member States from 2000 to 2016","authors":"","doi":"10.24425/cejeme.2022.144201","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24425/cejeme.2022.144201","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44819501","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The cross-sectional association between female labour force participation rates and fertility in developed countries shifted from negative to positive during the 1980s. Ever since then, researchers have applied different statistical approaches; therefore, the present study re-evaluates the results by applying a distinct strategy to the data from 2000 to 2020 for 32 countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Specifically, the data analysis discussed here implemented the so-called „unified“ model, thereby extending the analysis beyond the limitations of the fixed effects (FE) method; namely, by decomposing coefficients within (time-series) and between (cross-sectional) countries‘ effects, the study increased the explanatory power of our statistical model on the relation between fertility level and female labour force participation rate. Eventually, the selected statistical approach has shown the potential to offer a better interpretation of results in comparison to previous studies. Finally, this study confirmed the persistence of a negative trend in a time-series association between labour force participation and fertility.
{"title":"The Relationship between Fertility and Female Participation in the Labour Force in OECD Countries 2000–2020: It Is (Again) Negative","authors":"Miloš Milovanović","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The cross-sectional association between female labour force participation rates and fertility in developed countries shifted from negative to positive during the 1980s. Ever since then, researchers have applied different statistical approaches; therefore, the present study re-evaluates the results by applying a distinct strategy to the data from 2000 to 2020 for 32 countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Specifically, the data analysis discussed here implemented the so-called „unified“ model, thereby extending the analysis beyond the limitations of the fixed effects (FE) method; namely, by decomposing coefficients within (time-series) and between (cross-sectional) countries‘ effects, the study increased the explanatory power of our statistical model on the relation between fertility level and female labour force participation rate. Eventually, the selected statistical approach has shown the potential to offer a better interpretation of results in comparison to previous studies. Finally, this study confirmed the persistence of a negative trend in a time-series association between labour force participation and fertility.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"34 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136047417","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study presents a review of theoretical concepts described in the literature that explain how corporate events might be perceived by investors. The theoretical discussion in this paper is related to three corporate events: CEO turnovers, dividend payouts, and block trades. The objective of this analysis is to identify and systemise the theoretical background for the drivers of shareholders' responses to these three corporate decisions. In other words, I will provide answers to the following questions: why is the market reaction sometimes positive and other times negative, and why is it sometimes stronger and other times weaker? Based on the literature review, I will show that each of the analysed corporate events might be perceived by shareholders as either positive or negative signals concerning perspectives and future cash flows. Consequently, corporate events might drive share prices up or down. However, shareholder reaction to one type of the event, such as CEO turnovers, will not always be homogeneous – only positive or negative. The strength of this reaction may also vary. The main reasons for these variations are the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanisms, investors' perceptions of the event, the event's peculiarities, and the company's characteristics, as well as other relevant circumstances and factors.
{"title":"What Drives Shareholders' Reaction To CEO Turnovers, Dividend Changes, and Block Trades? A Theoretical Background","authors":"Agnieszka Preś-Perepeczo","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0004","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0004","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study presents a review of theoretical concepts described in the literature that explain how corporate events might be perceived by investors. The theoretical discussion in this paper is related to three corporate events: CEO turnovers, dividend payouts, and block trades. The objective of this analysis is to identify and systemise the theoretical background for the drivers of shareholders' responses to these three corporate decisions. In other words, I will provide answers to the following questions: why is the market reaction sometimes positive and other times negative, and why is it sometimes stronger and other times weaker? Based on the literature review, I will show that each of the analysed corporate events might be perceived by shareholders as either positive or negative signals concerning perspectives and future cash flows. Consequently, corporate events might drive share prices up or down. However, shareholder reaction to one type of the event, such as CEO turnovers, will not always be homogeneous – only positive or negative. The strength of this reaction may also vary. The main reasons for these variations are the effectiveness of corporate governance mechanisms, investors' perceptions of the event, the event's peculiarities, and the company's characteristics, as well as other relevant circumstances and factors.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"50 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"89807717","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The primary goal of this article is to examine the principal macroeconomic factors influencing credit risk as assessed by the nonperforming loan ratio (hereinafter NPL ratio). Based on the results, the ratio of domestic credit to the private sector, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership with a negative correlation with NPLs while the unemployment rate and the ratio of public debt with a positive relation with NPLs were statistically significant. In addition, the correlation between the inflation rate and the depreciation of the home currency was proven. The research examines the effects of the 2008 credit crunch, which triggered the financial crisis. The sample comprises 106 countries for the period 2009–2019. The real GDP growth, unemployment rate, public debt ratio, domestic credit to private sector ratio, currency depreciation, inflation rate, and interest rate were analysed as macroeconomic factors. A dummy variable representing OECD membership has been included in the analysis. The estimations were performed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. This article contributes to the academic discourse on the panel data perspective with regard to non-performing loans, while the practical implications are beneficial for governments and international investors.
{"title":"Macroeconomic Determinants of Credit Risk on the Example of Non-performing Loans","authors":"Adam Zawadzki","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The primary goal of this article is to examine the principal macroeconomic factors influencing credit risk as assessed by the nonperforming loan ratio (hereinafter NPL ratio). Based on the results, the ratio of domestic credit to the private sector, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership with a negative correlation with NPLs while the unemployment rate and the ratio of public debt with a positive relation with NPLs were statistically significant. In addition, the correlation between the inflation rate and the depreciation of the home currency was proven. The research examines the effects of the 2008 credit crunch, which triggered the financial crisis. The sample comprises 106 countries for the period 2009–2019. The real GDP growth, unemployment rate, public debt ratio, domestic credit to private sector ratio, currency depreciation, inflation rate, and interest rate were analysed as macroeconomic factors. A dummy variable representing OECD membership has been included in the analysis. The estimations were performed using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. This article contributes to the academic discourse on the panel data perspective with regard to non-performing loans, while the practical implications are beneficial for governments and international investors.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136373024","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper aims to assess the adequacy of obligatory tax advisors’ insurance to meet their needs in Poland and Czechia using the comparative-legal method. It is crucial, due to the need to protect the weaker party in a transaction and provide certainty in trading. The comparison is made between legislation concerning compulsory liability insurance for tax advisors and the general contracts negotiated by professional self-governing bodies. The Polish product is characterised by mandatory coverage and private initiative. Like other compulsory insurance, this product is more accessory than voluntary insurance because the insurer also provides protection in case of damage caused by gross negligence. In that insurance, there are no limitations of a financial nature (deductible, integral, and deductible franchise) on the liability of insurance companies. Consequently, the insurance company’s liability is even more similar to the insured’s. The reduction of accessoriality occurs only in regulated exclusions. The Czech legislator has only imposed the obligation to have this insurance without handling its details. The General Insurance Conditions regulate the remaining matter. The analysis indicated that the Polish regulations provide more complete protection. However, they require some modernisation—an increase in the sum assured (10,000 EUR is too low) or how it is calculated. Reasults show faults in existing Polish regulations and indicate ways to improve them.
{"title":"Comparison of Compulsory Liability Insurance of Tax Advisors in Poland to the Czech Counterpart","authors":"Marcel Myśliński","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0010","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper aims to assess the adequacy of obligatory tax advisors’ insurance to meet their needs in Poland and Czechia using the comparative-legal method. It is crucial, due to the need to protect the weaker party in a transaction and provide certainty in trading. The comparison is made between legislation concerning compulsory liability insurance for tax advisors and the general contracts negotiated by professional self-governing bodies. The Polish product is characterised by mandatory coverage and private initiative. Like other compulsory insurance, this product is more accessory than voluntary insurance because the insurer also provides protection in case of damage caused by gross negligence. In that insurance, there are no limitations of a financial nature (deductible, integral, and deductible franchise) on the liability of insurance companies. Consequently, the insurance company’s liability is even more similar to the insured’s. The reduction of accessoriality occurs only in regulated exclusions. The Czech legislator has only imposed the obligation to have this insurance without handling its details. The General Insurance Conditions regulate the remaining matter. The analysis indicated that the Polish regulations provide more complete protection. However, they require some modernisation—an increase in the sum assured (10,000 EUR is too low) or how it is calculated. Reasults show faults in existing Polish regulations and indicate ways to improve them.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"67 1","pages":"163 - 179"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88423880","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：