Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the implementation of the Family 500+ benefit, changes in female employment and female economic inactivity. The analysis is based on macro data and is focused on the years 2016–2019. To examine the relationship, this study uses decomposition of the employment-to-population ratio change into labour supply and unemployment components, analysis of changes in the structure of nonparticipants and the shift-share method. Considering that the reaction to the child benefit may differ across age groups, this study found that since the introduction of the Family 500+ benefit, the employment-to-population ratio for women aged 25–39 (the most likely age group to be raising children and therefore to receive the benefit) stagnated, their labour force participation rate decreased and the percentage of nonparticipants due to family and household responsibilities increased.
{"title":"The Family 500+ benefit and changes in female employment in Poland","authors":"K. Bartosik","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper investigates the relationship between the implementation of the Family 500+ benefit, changes in female employment and female economic inactivity. The analysis is based on macro data and is focused on the years 2016–2019. To examine the relationship, this study uses decomposition of the employment-to-population ratio change into labour supply and unemployment components, analysis of changes in the structure of nonparticipants and the shift-share method. Considering that the reaction to the child benefit may differ across age groups, this study found that since the introduction of the Family 500+ benefit, the employment-to-population ratio for women aged 25–39 (the most likely age group to be raising children and therefore to receive the benefit) stagnated, their labour force participation rate decreased and the percentage of nonparticipants due to family and household responsibilities increased.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"27 1","pages":"23 - 34"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78310650","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
K. Boichenko, Rana Umair Ashraf, Mário Nuno Mata, Ștefan Cristian Gherghina
Abstract The war in Ukraine affects the European Union (EU) member states asymmetrically. The purpose of the study is to determine changes in the development of the EU countries in three key directions: ‘economy and environment’, ‘business and trade’, and ‘people and work’; to identify clusters of countries with similar transformations; and to model the impact of the studied indicators on the level of public debt amid the war in Ukraine. The research methodology includes the definition of a complex indicator of changes in the socio-economic development of EU countries, correlation and cluster analysis, and modelling the influence of the studied factors/indicators on the level of public debt. Research of changes in the context of the proposed complex indicators and their components under conditions of war showed that the changes in the areas under review varied for EU countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, 17 EU countries faced a slowdown in their socio-economic growth, among which Poland was the most severely affected. Modelling made it possible to determine that, amid the war, the most important factors for the EU public debt are inflation, labour market conditions, and the possibilities of the balance of payments and the international investment position incorporated into GDP. The conducted research proves that the war in Ukraine increases the scale and relevance of general challenges that cannot be addressed at the national level. Strengthening the European defence against external aggression is the entire task of the EU.
{"title":"The EU's Socio-economic Development Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine","authors":"K. Boichenko, Rana Umair Ashraf, Mário Nuno Mata, Ștefan Cristian Gherghina","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The war in Ukraine affects the European Union (EU) member states asymmetrically. The purpose of the study is to determine changes in the development of the EU countries in three key directions: ‘economy and environment’, ‘business and trade’, and ‘people and work’; to identify clusters of countries with similar transformations; and to model the impact of the studied indicators on the level of public debt amid the war in Ukraine. The research methodology includes the definition of a complex indicator of changes in the socio-economic development of EU countries, correlation and cluster analysis, and modelling the influence of the studied factors/indicators on the level of public debt. Research of changes in the context of the proposed complex indicators and their components under conditions of war showed that the changes in the areas under review varied for EU countries. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, 17 EU countries faced a slowdown in their socio-economic growth, among which Poland was the most severely affected. Modelling made it possible to determine that, amid the war, the most important factors for the EU public debt are inflation, labour market conditions, and the possibilities of the balance of payments and the international investment position incorporated into GDP. The conducted research proves that the war in Ukraine increases the scale and relevance of general challenges that cannot be addressed at the national level. Strengthening the European defence against external aggression is the entire task of the EU.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"72 - 89"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"81996870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Despite recent studies focused on comparing the dynamics of market efficiency between Bitcoin and other traditional assets, there is a lack of knowledge about whether Bitcoin and emerging markets efficiency behave similarly. This paper aims to compare the market efficiency dynamics between Bitcoin and the emerging stock markets. In particular, this study indicates whether the dynamics of Bitcoin market efficiency mimic those of emerging stock markets. Thus, the paper's contribution emerges from the combination of Bitcoin and emerging markets in the field of dynamics of market efficiency. The dynamics of market efficiency are measured using the Hurst exponent in the rolling window. The study uses daily data for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the Bitcoin market over the period 2011–2022. Our results show that there is at most a moderate correlation between the dynamics of Bitcoin and emerging stock markets’ efficiency over the entire study period. The strongest correlations occur mainly in periods of high economic policy uncertainty in the largest Bitcoin mining countries. Therefore, the association between Bitcoin market efficiency and emerging stock markets’ efficiency may strengthen with an increase in economic policy uncertainty. These findings may be useful for investors and portfolio managers in constructing better investment strategies.
{"title":"Is Bitcoin an emerging market? A market efficiency perspective","authors":"Mateusz Skwarek","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Despite recent studies focused on comparing the dynamics of market efficiency between Bitcoin and other traditional assets, there is a lack of knowledge about whether Bitcoin and emerging markets efficiency behave similarly. This paper aims to compare the market efficiency dynamics between Bitcoin and the emerging stock markets. In particular, this study indicates whether the dynamics of Bitcoin market efficiency mimic those of emerging stock markets. Thus, the paper's contribution emerges from the combination of Bitcoin and emerging markets in the field of dynamics of market efficiency. The dynamics of market efficiency are measured using the Hurst exponent in the rolling window. The study uses daily data for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index and the Bitcoin market over the period 2011–2022. Our results show that there is at most a moderate correlation between the dynamics of Bitcoin and emerging stock markets’ efficiency over the entire study period. The strongest correlations occur mainly in periods of high economic policy uncertainty in the largest Bitcoin mining countries. Therefore, the association between Bitcoin market efficiency and emerging stock markets’ efficiency may strengthen with an increase in economic policy uncertainty. These findings may be useful for investors and portfolio managers in constructing better investment strategies.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"72 1","pages":"219 - 236"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74798759","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This study contrasts GARCH models with diverse combined forecast techniques for Commodities Value at Risk (VaR) modeling, aiming to enhance accuracy and provide novel insights. Employing daily returns data from 2000 to 2020 for gold, silver, oil, gas, and copper, various combination methods are evaluated using the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure. Results show individual models excel in forecasting VaR at a 0.975 confidence level, while combined methods outperform at 0.99 confidence. Especially during high uncertainty, as during COVID-19, combined forecasts prove more effective. Surprisingly, simple methods such as mean or lowest VaR yield optimal results, highlighting their efficacy. This study contributes by offering a broad comparison of forecasting methods, covering a substantial period, and dissecting crisis and prosperity phases. This advances understanding in financial forecasting, benefiting both academia and practitioners.
{"title":"Combining forecasts? Keep it simple","authors":"Szymon Lis, Marcin Chlebus","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0020","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0020","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This study contrasts GARCH models with diverse combined forecast techniques for Commodities Value at Risk (VaR) modeling, aiming to enhance accuracy and provide novel insights. Employing daily returns data from 2000 to 2020 for gold, silver, oil, gas, and copper, various combination methods are evaluated using the Model Confidence Set (MCS) procedure. Results show individual models excel in forecasting VaR at a 0.975 confidence level, while combined methods outperform at 0.99 confidence. Especially during high uncertainty, as during COVID-19, combined forecasts prove more effective. Surprisingly, simple methods such as mean or lowest VaR yield optimal results, highlighting their efficacy. This study contributes by offering a broad comparison of forecasting methods, covering a substantial period, and dissecting crisis and prosperity phases. This advances understanding in financial forecasting, benefiting both academia and practitioners.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135311685","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Financial markets are seen as one of the most important markets in economic terms. The activities of investors in the financial markets consist in predicting how best to invest the accumulated capital, using all kinds of analyzes and forecasts. In the literature on the subject, apart from fundamental analysis, technical analysis is distinguished. While the first one is to help you choose a specific asset with profitable potential, technical analysis is designed to help the investor find a specific moment that is most suitable for buying or selling. The aim of the article is to demonstrate the potential benefits associated with modifying the default settings of technical analysis indicators on the example of the EUR/USD currency pair using the MetaTrader4 investment platform. Analizing was carried out on the basis of the most popular currency pair in terms of turnover on the Forex market - EUR/USD. The research used an investment strategy based on Parabolic SAR and Relative Strength Index RSI technical analysis indicators, whose indications were verified both in the context of default settings and after the author‘s modification. The results of the conducted research indicate significant differences, depending on the adopted parameters of the above-mentioned indicators.
{"title":"Modification of technical analysis indicators and increasing the rate of return on investment","authors":"Paweł Oktaba, M. Grzywińska-Rąpca","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0009","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0009","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Financial markets are seen as one of the most important markets in economic terms. The activities of investors in the financial markets consist in predicting how best to invest the accumulated capital, using all kinds of analyzes and forecasts. In the literature on the subject, apart from fundamental analysis, technical analysis is distinguished. While the first one is to help you choose a specific asset with profitable potential, technical analysis is designed to help the investor find a specific moment that is most suitable for buying or selling. The aim of the article is to demonstrate the potential benefits associated with modifying the default settings of technical analysis indicators on the example of the EUR/USD currency pair using the MetaTrader4 investment platform. Analizing was carried out on the basis of the most popular currency pair in terms of turnover on the Forex market - EUR/USD. The research used an investment strategy based on Parabolic SAR and Relative Strength Index RSI technical analysis indicators, whose indications were verified both in the context of default settings and after the author‘s modification. The results of the conducted research indicate significant differences, depending on the adopted parameters of the above-mentioned indicators.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"203 1","pages":"148 - 162"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86950437","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February of 2022 caused a humanitarian refugee crisis on a scale unseen since World War II. The scale and speed at which refugees surged into other European countries required significant resources to respond to this influx. This study explores the perspectives of those working in NGOs about the resilience of their organisations in responding to the Ukrainian refugee crisis in the Czech Republic. Drawing on interview data collected at the beginning of the refugee response in the Czech Republic between February and June of 2022, our findings suggest that NGOs face capacity and governance challenges, and these system-level barriers inhibit NGO resilience and their ability to respond effectively to the Ukrainian refugee crisis in the long term. These lasting effects influence NGO resilience in the face of the unprecedented Ukrainian crisis. Despite these barriers, NGOs acted with flexibility and agility in delivering humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian refugees in the first few months of the crisis. The findings from this study indicate NGOs engage in organisational resilience strategies within a policy and governance system that lacks the adaptability and coordination needed to be resilient.
{"title":"Resilience, Ambiguous Governance, and the Ukrainian Refugee Crisis: Perspectives from NGO Leaders in the Czech Republic","authors":"T. Bryan, Monica Lea, Vladimír Hyánek","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0003","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0003","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Russian invasion of Ukraine in late February of 2022 caused a humanitarian refugee crisis on a scale unseen since World War II. The scale and speed at which refugees surged into other European countries required significant resources to respond to this influx. This study explores the perspectives of those working in NGOs about the resilience of their organisations in responding to the Ukrainian refugee crisis in the Czech Republic. Drawing on interview data collected at the beginning of the refugee response in the Czech Republic between February and June of 2022, our findings suggest that NGOs face capacity and governance challenges, and these system-level barriers inhibit NGO resilience and their ability to respond effectively to the Ukrainian refugee crisis in the long term. These lasting effects influence NGO resilience in the face of the unprecedented Ukrainian crisis. Despite these barriers, NGOs acted with flexibility and agility in delivering humanitarian assistance to Ukrainian refugees in the first few months of the crisis. The findings from this study indicate NGOs engage in organisational resilience strategies within a policy and governance system that lacks the adaptability and coordination needed to be resilient.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"21 20","pages":"35 - 49"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72398581","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract It is difficult to achieve high-quality education without good teachers. Therefore, it is crucial to understand who decides to become a teacher. This study leverages a large-scale administrative dataset comprising detailed records of the educational trajectories of 10 cohorts of students at the University of Warsaw, the largest higher education institution in Poland, in order to investigate self-selection to the teaching profession and to learn whether it depends on the mode of teacher training and the student's primary field of studies. We find that the recruitment of students to the concurrent teacher training programme is characterised by adverse self-selection with respect to prior academic achievements. When it comes to consecutive programmes, pursued as an extension or specialisation within the major programme, the willingness of students to enroll in teacher training is related to their secondary school achievements, but also – and in a distinct way – to their early experience at the university. In the case of STEM and foreign language programmes, we observe adverse selection to teacher training with respect to either the student's pre-university academic outcomes or their achievements during the first year of university studies.
{"title":"Towards a better understanding of self-selection to teacher training programmes: A case study of a renowned public university in Poland","authors":"Mikołaj Herbst, Tomasz Zając","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0021","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract It is difficult to achieve high-quality education without good teachers. Therefore, it is crucial to understand who decides to become a teacher. This study leverages a large-scale administrative dataset comprising detailed records of the educational trajectories of 10 cohorts of students at the University of Warsaw, the largest higher education institution in Poland, in order to investigate self-selection to the teaching profession and to learn whether it depends on the mode of teacher training and the student's primary field of studies. We find that the recruitment of students to the concurrent teacher training programme is characterised by adverse self-selection with respect to prior academic achievements. When it comes to consecutive programmes, pursued as an extension or specialisation within the major programme, the willingness of students to enroll in teacher training is related to their secondary school achievements, but also – and in a distinct way – to their early experience at the university. In the case of STEM and foreign language programmes, we observe adverse selection to teacher training with respect to either the student's pre-university academic outcomes or their achievements during the first year of university studies.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"132 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135312839","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The main objective of the presented research is to verify the influence of demographic factors on retail customers’ bank selection criteria in Poland. We compiled descriptive and inferential statistics and did factor analysis using Principal Component Analysis. Our dataset is based on a sample of 515 questionnaires that were gathered in the first quarter of 2022. The results proved that there are significant differences among various groups of respondents and their bank selection criteria. The highest number of differences appear in the case of demographic factors of age, and then income and gender. In general, the most important factors are the cost of service and mobile and online banking. The study has direct implications for all types of banks that operate in developing markets, especially in East-Central Europe, as having this knowledge can help to appropriately target customers using bank selection criteria that are valued by different groups of customers.
{"title":"Demographic factors and customers’ bank choice criteria","authors":"Katarzyna Schmidt-Jessa","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0014","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The main objective of the presented research is to verify the influence of demographic factors on retail customers’ bank selection criteria in Poland. We compiled descriptive and inferential statistics and did factor analysis using Principal Component Analysis. Our dataset is based on a sample of 515 questionnaires that were gathered in the first quarter of 2022. The results proved that there are significant differences among various groups of respondents and their bank selection criteria. The highest number of differences appear in the case of demographic factors of age, and then income and gender. In general, the most important factors are the cost of service and mobile and online banking. The study has direct implications for all types of banks that operate in developing markets, especially in East-Central Europe, as having this knowledge can help to appropriately target customers using bank selection criteria that are valued by different groups of customers.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"90 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135839881","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The aim of this paper is to ascertain corporate investment reaction in bank-dependent companies in times of crisis. Our investigation covers the differences in corporate investment reaction due to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020–2021. We utilized panel data of companies present on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the GFC and COVID-19 crisis—932 firm-year observations. We found a negative relationship between bank dependence (static ratio) and corporate investment, but a statistical significance was found only for the GFC period. We also found a positive relationship between bank dependence (dynamic ratio) and corporate investment, but statistical significance was found only for the GFC period. Additionally, we found that during the COVID-19 crisis, the level of corporate investment was at its lowest level, but the biggest drop was noticeable during the GFC when compared to the pre-GFC period. Our article contributes to the existing research by being part of the research on corporate investment and capital structure. It consists of the research on one of the determinants of the corporate investment and capital structure decisions—macroeconomic turbulence manifested in economic crises.
{"title":"Corporate Investment in Bank-Dependent Companies in Crisis Time","authors":"E. Bukalska, Ilona Skibińska-Fabrowska","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The aim of this paper is to ascertain corporate investment reaction in bank-dependent companies in times of crisis. Our investigation covers the differences in corporate investment reaction due to the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–2009 and the COVID-19 crisis of 2020–2021. We utilized panel data of companies present on the Warsaw Stock Exchange during the GFC and COVID-19 crisis—932 firm-year observations. We found a negative relationship between bank dependence (static ratio) and corporate investment, but a statistical significance was found only for the GFC period. We also found a positive relationship between bank dependence (dynamic ratio) and corporate investment, but statistical significance was found only for the GFC period. Additionally, we found that during the COVID-19 crisis, the level of corporate investment was at its lowest level, but the biggest drop was noticeable during the GFC when compared to the pre-GFC period. Our article contributes to the existing research by being part of the research on corporate investment and capital structure. It consists of the research on one of the determinants of the corporate investment and capital structure decisions—macroeconomic turbulence manifested in economic crises.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"18 1","pages":"1 - 22"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80989053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This article investigates the rise of populism in Poland, applying an interdisciplinary method, with political, social, and economic factors as the compound reason for the turn from liberalism towards populism. The methodology of the study is the exploratory analysis of research, historical materials on Poland's transition to capitalism, and calculation of the selected empirical data of household incomes, linked to election results, in the regional cross-section. The household economic condition was validated by a report on deprivation and the presented growth of households’ disposable income, exposing regional differences between the selected voivodeships. The populist party Law and Justice (PiS) won the two last elections, with the majority of votes in low-income regions, which proved the hypothesis that economic inequality, amplified by globalisation and transition disparities were the main reasons for populism's prevalence. The democratic backsliding has not changed party-political scenery for very long, which revealed that for the majority of Polish voters, economic upgrading counted more, despite the violation of democracy. Therefore, the advance of knowledge about measures to reduce the in-country socioeconomic disparities between regions has become more important.
{"title":"The Unpredicted Rise of Populism: The Case of Poland","authors":"Danuta A. Tomczak","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2023-0018","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2023-0018","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article investigates the rise of populism in Poland, applying an interdisciplinary method, with political, social, and economic factors as the compound reason for the turn from liberalism towards populism. The methodology of the study is the exploratory analysis of research, historical materials on Poland's transition to capitalism, and calculation of the selected empirical data of household incomes, linked to election results, in the regional cross-section. The household economic condition was validated by a report on deprivation and the presented growth of households’ disposable income, exposing regional differences between the selected voivodeships. The populist party Law and Justice (PiS) won the two last elections, with the majority of votes in low-income regions, which proved the hypothesis that economic inequality, amplified by globalisation and transition disparities were the main reasons for populism's prevalence. The democratic backsliding has not changed party-political scenery for very long, which revealed that for the majority of Polish voters, economic upgrading counted more, despite the violation of democracy. Therefore, the advance of knowledge about measures to reduce the in-country socioeconomic disparities between regions has become more important.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"22 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135104949","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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