Abstract Policies that are introduced to mitigate adverse consequences of climate change involve economic costs. For some households, these costs will materialise in the form of an increase in prices of consumption goods, whereas for others they will materialise in the form of falling productivity and wages. Disentangling these two effects is important in the light of the design of funds that aim to support the households that are negatively affected by climate policy. In this article, we study the effect of carbon tax on welfare through changes of consumer prices and wages in a general equilibrium setting. In the first step, we review the literature on ‘top-down’ models, which are used to evaluate the macroeconomic cost of climate policy. We find that these models usually do not account for loss of productivity of workers who must change their sector due to climate policy. In the second step, we develop a theoretical, micro-founded, two-sector model that explicitly accounts for the loss of productivity of workers. The compensation of climate-change mitigation costs would require allocation of separate funds for the affected consumers and workers.
{"title":"Workers or Consumers: Who Pays for Low-Carbon Transition – Theoretical Analysis of Welfare Change in General Equilibrium Setting","authors":"Jan Witajewski-Baltvilks, Jakub Boratyński","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0017","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0017","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Policies that are introduced to mitigate adverse consequences of climate change involve economic costs. For some households, these costs will materialise in the form of an increase in prices of consumption goods, whereas for others they will materialise in the form of falling productivity and wages. Disentangling these two effects is important in the light of the design of funds that aim to support the households that are negatively affected by climate policy. In this article, we study the effect of carbon tax on welfare through changes of consumer prices and wages in a general equilibrium setting. In the first step, we review the literature on ‘top-down’ models, which are used to evaluate the macroeconomic cost of climate policy. We find that these models usually do not account for loss of productivity of workers who must change their sector due to climate policy. In the second step, we develop a theoretical, micro-founded, two-sector model that explicitly accounts for the loss of productivity of workers. The compensation of climate-change mitigation costs would require allocation of separate funds for the affected consumers and workers.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"8 1","pages":"231 - 245"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84711499","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The paper starts with a review of literature focusing on links between democracy and environmental protection, pointing out a fair weight of scientific evidence that democratic societies on average enjoy a higher level of environmental quality than autocracies. It subsequently provides a quick insight into the recent trends in the state of democracy and the rule of law in Poland as well as a few examples of measures taken concerning environmental policy that have been undertaken after 2015. The paper concludes by expressing concern about certain negative patterns in the Polish environmental policy in the past few years, which seem to be connected to the deficiencies in the rule of law and democracy as observed in Poland. The shrinking space for civil society to participate in democratic governance concerning environmental issues and the excessive appetite of the current government for large infrastructural investments seem to be in contradiction with the European and global strive for sustainable development and tackling climate change. It remains to be seen if the recent negative trends in the Polish environmental policy will have a structural impact on the state of environment in Poland.
{"title":"State of Democracy in Poland versus Environmental Protection","authors":"A. Markowska","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2021-0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0016","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The paper starts with a review of literature focusing on links between democracy and environmental protection, pointing out a fair weight of scientific evidence that democratic societies on average enjoy a higher level of environmental quality than autocracies. It subsequently provides a quick insight into the recent trends in the state of democracy and the rule of law in Poland as well as a few examples of measures taken concerning environmental policy that have been undertaken after 2015. The paper concludes by expressing concern about certain negative patterns in the Polish environmental policy in the past few years, which seem to be connected to the deficiencies in the rule of law and democracy as observed in Poland. The shrinking space for civil society to participate in democratic governance concerning environmental issues and the excessive appetite of the current government for large infrastructural investments seem to be in contradiction with the European and global strive for sustainable development and tackling climate change. It remains to be seen if the recent negative trends in the Polish environmental policy will have a structural impact on the state of environment in Poland.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"4 1","pages":"219 - 230"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90638041","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract In the past years, Poland has been not only a country of (mass) immigration but also a country where foreigners have begun to play a much larger role in the domestic labour market than ever before. This makes the analyses of foreigners’ integration increasingly important both to understand the situation of immigrants in Poland and their impact on the national economy and social processes. In this context, this article aims to quantify one of the dimensions of the economic integration of immigrants. We look at the level of earnings as one of the indicators of their integration process. Additionally, we refer to the impact of social capital (in the form of migrant networks) on the economic situation of immigrants. We focus on immigrants from Ukraine—the most numerous group of foreigners in Poland. Based on a unique data set, we empirically identify the key dimensions that have an impact on their incomes, including gender, employment sector and legal status. We also point to the statistically significant effects of migrant networks on migrants’ earnings.
{"title":"Economic Integration and Migrant Networks: The Case of Ukrainian Migrants in the Warsaw Agglomeration","authors":"W. Maruszewski, P. Kaczmarczyk","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0030","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0030","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the past years, Poland has been not only a country of (mass) immigration but also a country where foreigners have begun to play a much larger role in the domestic labour market than ever before. This makes the analyses of foreigners’ integration increasingly important both to understand the situation of immigrants in Poland and their impact on the national economy and social processes. In this context, this article aims to quantify one of the dimensions of the economic integration of immigrants. We look at the level of earnings as one of the indicators of their integration process. Additionally, we refer to the impact of social capital (in the form of migrant networks) on the economic situation of immigrants. We focus on immigrants from Ukraine—the most numerous group of foreigners in Poland. Based on a unique data set, we empirically identify the key dimensions that have an impact on their incomes, including gender, employment sector and legal status. We also point to the statistically significant effects of migrant networks on migrants’ earnings.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"19 1","pages":"258 - 278"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88685476","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This research focuses on the regional research policy of the federal states. The paper analyses the existing academic research sources of the regional research policies and answers questions of the regions's analysis. The methodology uses specific working papers essential for the European region's and sources of the Austrian public administration. Concerning the empirical part, this paper uses qualitatively focussed structured guideline surveys. The research will facilitate discussions on aspects of methodological approaches to research, data capture and analysis, perceived research outcomes and contributions to the body of knowledge. Essential is the separation of subvention policy, which means the matter of distinct locational competition and it occurs the establishment of co-production within the regions to present itself mutual externally to persist in the global contest. The findings indicate that even through this concept for success is highly influenced by funding's that are not very controllable by the regions, such as the federal states, and it is a positive prototype for prospective similar cases.
{"title":"The regional research policy of the Austrian federal states","authors":"Thomas Eisenhut","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0012","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0012","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This research focuses on the regional research policy of the federal states. The paper analyses the existing academic research sources of the regional research policies and answers questions of the regions's analysis. The methodology uses specific working papers essential for the European region's and sources of the Austrian public administration. Concerning the empirical part, this paper uses qualitatively focussed structured guideline surveys. The research will facilitate discussions on aspects of methodological approaches to research, data capture and analysis, perceived research outcomes and contributions to the body of knowledge. Essential is the separation of subvention policy, which means the matter of distinct locational competition and it occurs the establishment of co-production within the regions to present itself mutual externally to persist in the global contest. The findings indicate that even through this concept for success is highly influenced by funding's that are not very controllable by the regions, such as the federal states, and it is a positive prototype for prospective similar cases.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"18 1","pages":"227 - 241"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82396733","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Professions such as doctors and lawyers often enjoy some degree of self-regulation, i.e. they can set the codes of conduct in the market and even determine the rules for joining the profession. We address the problem of the optimal scope of self-regulation. Specifically, we model a profession that can decide about the quality of the service, and we examine if the profession should also be allowed to determine the number of suppliers. We assume that a larger number of professionals reduce the fixed cost of providing quality, and hence the motive to restrict entry is mitigated. Nonetheless, we find that for well-behaved fixed costs functions, the size of the profession preferred by the professionals is smaller than the socially optimal one. Still, if the only alternative to self-regulation is free entry to the profession, then self-regulation is the preferable regime. These findings are relevant for the services that are difficult to substitute by the services produced outside the profession.
{"title":"A note on the optimal scope of professional self-regulation","authors":"K. Szczygielski","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0008","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0008","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Professions such as doctors and lawyers often enjoy some degree of self-regulation, i.e. they can set the codes of conduct in the market and even determine the rules for joining the profession. We address the problem of the optimal scope of self-regulation. Specifically, we model a profession that can decide about the quality of the service, and we examine if the profession should also be allowed to determine the number of suppliers. We assume that a larger number of professionals reduce the fixed cost of providing quality, and hence the motive to restrict entry is mitigated. Nonetheless, we find that for well-behaved fixed costs functions, the size of the profession preferred by the professionals is smaller than the socially optimal one. Still, if the only alternative to self-regulation is free entry to the profession, then self-regulation is the preferable regime. These findings are relevant for the services that are difficult to substitute by the services produced outside the profession.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"38 1","pages":"218 - 226"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88305722","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract Macroeconomic forecasters are often believed to idealistically work on improving the accuracy of their estimates based on for example the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Unfortunately, reality is far more complex. Forecasters are not awarded equally for each of their estimates. They have their targets of acquiring publicity or to earn prestige. This article aims to study the results of Parkiet's competitions of macroeconomic forecasting during 2015–2019. Based on a logit model, we analyse whether more accurate forecasting of some selected macroeconomic variables (e.g. inflation) increases the chances of winning the competition by a greater degree comparing to the others. Our research shows that among macroeconomic variables three groups have a significant impact on the final score: inflation (CPI and core inflation), the labour market (employment in the enterprise sector and unemployment rate) and financial market indicators (EUR/PLN and 10-year government bond yields). Each group is characterised by a low disagreement between forecasters. In the case of inflation, we found evidence that some forecasters put a greater effort to score the top place. There is no evidence that forecasters are trying to somehow exploit the contest.
{"title":"Macroeconomic forecasting in Poland: The role of forecasting competitions","authors":"Jakub Rybacki","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0001","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0001","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Macroeconomic forecasters are often believed to idealistically work on improving the accuracy of their estimates based on for example the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE). Unfortunately, reality is far more complex. Forecasters are not awarded equally for each of their estimates. They have their targets of acquiring publicity or to earn prestige. This article aims to study the results of Parkiet's competitions of macroeconomic forecasting during 2015–2019. Based on a logit model, we analyse whether more accurate forecasting of some selected macroeconomic variables (e.g. inflation) increases the chances of winning the competition by a greater degree comparing to the others. Our research shows that among macroeconomic variables three groups have a significant impact on the final score: inflation (CPI and core inflation), the labour market (employment in the enterprise sector and unemployment rate) and financial market indicators (EUR/PLN and 10-year government bond yields). Each group is characterised by a low disagreement between forecasters. In the case of inflation, we found evidence that some forecasters put a greater effort to score the top place. There is no evidence that forecasters are trying to somehow exploit the contest.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"40 1","pages":"1 - 11"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90117804","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper analyses the influence of financial development on income inequality. Throughout this work, one may find the overview of theoretical and empirical literature as well as the empirical model using fixed panel data method. This research paper tries to disentangle the opposing views on the relationship between finance and income distribution, by evaluating the impact of the different dimensions of financial development on the level of income inequality. The important added value of this research is the usage of quintiles of income distribution as a dependent variable that may help to recognise the effect of financial development on the poorest and richest. Another novelty of the paper is the consideration of the effects of financial variables on Gini coefficient in the long and short run. The main results of the analysis using dataset from 2003 to 2014 indicate that financial access decreases income inequality.
{"title":"Financial development and income inequality","authors":"Ewa Weychert","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0006","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0006","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper analyses the influence of financial development on income inequality. Throughout this work, one may find the overview of theoretical and empirical literature as well as the empirical model using fixed panel data method. This research paper tries to disentangle the opposing views on the relationship between finance and income distribution, by evaluating the impact of the different dimensions of financial development on the level of income inequality. The important added value of this research is the usage of quintiles of income distribution as a dependent variable that may help to recognise the effect of financial development on the poorest and richest. Another novelty of the paper is the consideration of the effects of financial variables on Gini coefficient in the long and short run. The main results of the analysis using dataset from 2003 to 2014 indicate that financial access decreases income inequality.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"36 1","pages":"84 - 100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86325935","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract This paper examines the relationship between the voting behaviour of European Parliament members on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) proposal and economic characteristics of their respective countries. We are concerned about the political and economy factors behind policy and decision making of CCCTB in European Parliament. The analysis is conducted with Logit model identifying factors affecting the voting consultation decision of the Parliament of the European Union in 2018. Particularly, we investigate the impact of four components taken from tax benefit index proposed by W. Orłowski. We have found that economic factors alone are responsible the voting behaviour of the European Union deputies, not their personal characteristics.
{"title":"The voting of EU members for common consolidated corporate tax base and the tax benefits","authors":"Wojciech Dąbroś, J. Kudła","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This paper examines the relationship between the voting behaviour of European Parliament members on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) proposal and economic characteristics of their respective countries. We are concerned about the political and economy factors behind policy and decision making of CCCTB in European Parliament. The analysis is conducted with Logit model identifying factors affecting the voting consultation decision of the Parliament of the European Union in 2018. Particularly, we investigate the impact of four components taken from tax benefit index proposed by W. Orłowski. We have found that economic factors alone are responsible the voting behaviour of the European Union deputies, not their personal characteristics.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"1 1","pages":"56 - 71"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"90737628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The article addresses the issue of stress testing based on the probability of bankruptcy and a rating migration matrix. The analysis is conducted on a sample of listed companies in Poland in the years 1998–2016, and the forecasts are made for the years 2016–2018. Particular attention is paid to how the variable on which rating migration matrices are developed is defined. Stress tests are carried out on variables derived from rating migration matrices and economic indicators. The study provides information on the methodology for stress testing.
{"title":"Financial liability stress tests: an approach based on the use of a rating migration matrix","authors":"Klaudia Kleszcz, Natalia Nehrebecka","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0002","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article addresses the issue of stress testing based on the probability of bankruptcy and a rating migration matrix. The analysis is conducted on a sample of listed companies in Poland in the years 1998–2016, and the forecasts are made for the years 2016–2018. Particular attention is paid to how the variable on which rating migration matrices are developed is defined. Stress tests are carried out on variables derived from rating migration matrices and economic indicators. The study provides information on the methodology for stress testing.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"64 1","pages":"12 - 32"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"86086833","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Abstract The academic literature in the past has frequently highlighted that the European Commission (EC) tends to provide more accurate public finance forecasts compared with national governments, thanks to its neutrality. The recent conflicts regarding the excessive deficit procedure with Romania and Italy and rule of law with Hungary and Poland raises the question of whether such conclusions are still binding. Therefore, we analysed a panel of forecasts submitted by the national governments with an annual update of Convergence programmes and corresponding EC predictions. Our dataset contains predictions of the general government deficit, revenues and expenditures for EU27 economies and the United Kingdom in the years 2014–2019. First, the analysis shows no meaningful discrepancies between both estimates when the horizon is set at the current year. Forecasts for the next year have equal accuracy in the case of government revenues and expenditures. However, the EC performs worse in the case of the final deficit. Second, cross-country effects are present, but the accuracy is different mainly in the very small economies, that is, the Baltic countries, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg. Amongst the more populated states, the EC outperforms the Slovakian and Denmark governments but has worse performance than the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish governments. We also do not see evidence of any political bias in the forecasts.
{"title":"Are the European Commission's forecasts of public finances better than those of national governments?","authors":"Jakub Rybacki","doi":"10.2478/ceej-2020-0013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2020-0013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The academic literature in the past has frequently highlighted that the European Commission (EC) tends to provide more accurate public finance forecasts compared with national governments, thanks to its neutrality. The recent conflicts regarding the excessive deficit procedure with Romania and Italy and rule of law with Hungary and Poland raises the question of whether such conclusions are still binding. Therefore, we analysed a panel of forecasts submitted by the national governments with an annual update of Convergence programmes and corresponding EC predictions. Our dataset contains predictions of the general government deficit, revenues and expenditures for EU27 economies and the United Kingdom in the years 2014–2019. First, the analysis shows no meaningful discrepancies between both estimates when the horizon is set at the current year. Forecasts for the next year have equal accuracy in the case of government revenues and expenditures. However, the EC performs worse in the case of the final deficit. Second, cross-country effects are present, but the accuracy is different mainly in the very small economies, that is, the Baltic countries, Cyprus, Malta and Luxembourg. Amongst the more populated states, the EC outperforms the Slovakian and Denmark governments but has worse performance than the Irish, Portuguese and Spanish governments. We also do not see evidence of any political bias in the forecasts.","PeriodicalId":9951,"journal":{"name":"Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics","volume":"4 1","pages":"101 - 109"},"PeriodicalIF":0.2,"publicationDate":"2020-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75740003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
扫码关注我们
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：