Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

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The Belt and Road Initiative and Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment: Comparison and current status

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2025.100106

Mykyta Simonov

The last decade has witnessed the development and implementation of two major infrastructure initiatives: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) by the United States and the G7 countries. The escalating political confrontation between China and the United States made these initiatives crucial for strengthening their geopolitical positions and economic dominance. This paper examines the impact of BRI on competitive strategies of the United States and its partners in response to China’s growing influence, thereby enhancing the understanding of contemporary political and economic dynamics. Key factors supporting the thesis of increasing competition and confrontation are considered, demonstrating that U.S. leadership leverages its infrastructure initiatives to oppose and constrain China’s influence at both the foreign policy and economic levels. Our analysis identifies factors directly influencing the development of these initiatives and compares the principles of BRI and PGII to objectively evaluate their effectiveness.

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A two-year assessment of the IRA's subsidies to the electric vehicles in the US: Uptake and assembly plants for batteries and EVs

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100102

Sandrine Levasseur

In this paper, we assess electric vehicle (EV) tax credits in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest significant action in favour of climate change in US history. We find that the provisions of the IRA have so far done little to increase the uptake of EVs by US households, accounting at best for 10 % of monthly new light vehicle sales since the IRA was passed. This is well below most ex-ante estimates of EV uptake under the legislation. In contrast, the IRA has triggered EV battery plant projects in the United States, reinforcing the move by automakers to secure their supply chain since the Covid crisis. In total, current and projected GWh capacity would allow 17.0 million EVs to be powered annually by 2030, compared to the 1.2 million EVs sold in 2023. Thus, to date, the IRA has created a potentially huge imbalance between supply and demand in the US EV market. We also document the strategies followed by automakers to capture EV market share in the United States, with a focus on whether they are incumbents or startups, and whether they are based in allied countries.

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Guest editor's introduction 特邀编辑导言

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100088

Byung-yeon Kim

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The impact of the Global Minimum Tax on Vietnam's foreign direct investment attraction 全球最低税对越南吸引外国直接投资的影响

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100090

Le Quoc Hoi , Nguyen Thi Hoai Thu , Nguyen Xuan Hung , Phung Tu Uyen , Tran Thu Huong , Trinh Thi Huyen Minh , Hoang Thi Phuong Anh

This study assesses the impact of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) on the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam. The authors rely on the analytical framework of UNCTAD (2022) and descriptive statistical methods to analyze and evaluate the impact of GMT on FDI attraction. The research findings indicate that the implementation of GMT will affect tax competitiveness, profit shifting, investment location, and investment scale in various degrees and directions. In particular, GMT may create conflicts between current tax laws and GMT rules, leading to inconsistencies and difficulties in enforcing tax regulations. Vietnam will have to compete with other countries in asserting tax jurisdiction over investment activities on its territory. GMT may negatively affect FDI inflows into Vietnam in sectors with a high tax elasticity to investments. Vietnam may be forced to move away from competition for attracting FDI solely based on corporate income tax and shift to new forms of competition. Based on these findings, the paper proposes several recommendations for the Vietnamese government to refine policies related to GMT.

本研究评估了全球最低税（GMT）对越南吸引外国直接投资（FDI）的影响。作者依据联合国贸发会议（2022 年）的分析框架和描述性统计方法，分析和评估了全球最低税对吸引外国直接投资的影响。研究结果表明，GMT 的实施将在不同程度和方向上影响税收竞争力、利润转移、投资地点和投资规模。特别是，GMT 可能会造成现行税法与 GMT 规则之间的冲突，导致税收法规的不一致和执行困难。越南将不得不与其他国家竞争对其境内投资活动的税收管辖权。在税收弹性较高的投资领域，GMT 可能会对流入越南的外国直接投资产生负面影响。越南可能被迫放弃仅以企业所得税为基础的吸引外国直接投资的竞争，转向新的竞争形式。基于上述结论，本文为越南政府完善与GMT相关的政策提出了若干建议。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of COVID-19 and border closures on North Korean markets: A comparison with international prices COVID-19 和边境关闭对朝鲜市场的影响：与国际价格的比较

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100096

Seungho Jung , Dawool Kim , Kyoochul Kim

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 and border closures on North Korean markets by comparing the prices of key goods—rice, gasoline, diesel, and exchange rates—with those in the Chinese and global markets. By analyzing market price data, we assess North Korea's economic connectivity to international markets, particularly through China, and how pandemic-induced disruptions affected this linkage. Empirical results reveal that North Korean market prices for these goods generally maintain a long-term equilibrium relationship with international and Chinese prices, although the COVID-19 period disrupted this relationship. These findings suggest that North Korea's macroeconomic stability, especially price levels, is influenced by external factors through its economic ties with China.

本研究通过比较主要商品--大米、汽油、柴油和汇率--的价格与中国和全球市场的价格，考察了 COVID-19 和边境关闭对朝鲜市场的影响。通过分析市场价格数据，我们评估了朝鲜与国际市场（尤其是通过中国）的经济联系，以及大流行病引发的混乱对这种联系的影响。实证结果显示，朝鲜这些商品的市场价格一般与国际和中国价格保持长期均衡关系，尽管 COVID-19 期间破坏了这种关系。这些研究结果表明，北朝鲜的宏观经济稳定性，尤其是价格水平，受到其与中国经济联系的外部因素的影响。

引用次数: 0

Identification with dominant ethnic groups and attitudes towards government redistribution in Southeast Asia

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100095

Joseph J. Capuno

Does identification with dominant but different ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper analyzes the role of the relative population size of an individual's ethnic group in shaping her attitude towards government's role in reducing income gaps in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Using a pool of nationally representative survey data, we classify the respondents according to their affiliations with dominant ethnic groups, and then apply probit regression models. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is consistently found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. There are no systematic differences in such preferences between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller ethnic groups. Thus, in addition to shared norms and beliefs among ethnic group members, their group's dominance status, which determine their potential influence on domestic polices, also motivate their attitudes towards government redistribution.

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Japan and South Korea's engagement in the Chinese market post-RCEP implementation: A case study of the semiconductor industry 实施《关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》后日本和韩国在中国市场的参与情况：半导体行业案例研究

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100085

Yuxin Peng (Ph.D. student at Ritsumeikan University)

After the RCEP implementation in 2022, trade differences emerged between Japan and South Korea with China, especially in semiconductors. Japan's exports to China declined, while South Korea's grew. This study uses qualitative and quantitative methods to explain post-RCEP semiconductor trade differences, focusing on value chain complementarity, new tariff rates, and U.S. factors. Three conclusions: 1) Within the global value chain, the different positions of Japan and South Korea in the semiconductor sectors compared to China result in varying levels of market complementarity between Japan and China and South Korea and China; South Korea, in particular, exhibits a significantly higher potential market. 2) In terms of reducing tariff barriers under RCEP, compared to Japan, South Korea experienced a more substantial decline in semiconductor tariff rates in the Chinese market. 3) The non-tariff barrier sanctions imposed by the United States on Chinese semiconductors in 2022 influenced trade choices for Japan and South Korea. Japan, being more loyal to the United States, tends to align with U.S. policies, leading to a reduction in semiconductor trade with China.

2022 年 RCEP 实施后，日本和韩国与中国的贸易出现了差异，尤其是在半导体方面。日本对华出口下降，而韩国对华出口增长。本研究采用定性和定量方法来解释 RCEP 后的半导体贸易差异，重点关注价值链互补性、新关税税率和美国因素。研究得出三个结论1）在全球价值链中，与中国相比，日本和韩国在半导体行业的地位不同，导致日本与中国、韩国与中国之间的市场互补性程度不同；尤其是韩国，其潜在市场明显更高。2) 在 RCEP 框架下降低关税壁垒方面，与日本相比，韩国在中国市场的半导体关税税率下降幅度更大。3) 2022 年美国对中国半导体实施的非关税壁垒制裁影响了日本和韩国的贸易选择。日本更忠于美国，倾向于与美国政策保持一致，导致与中国的半导体贸易减少。

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引用次数: 0

Does automation really reduce jobs? 自动化真的会减少工作岗位吗？

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100099

Zheng Fang , Soon Hock Kang , Sandra Myo Han May

Using panel data from 63 countries in 2005–2021 and the generalised method of moments, this paper examines the impact of industrial robot utilisation on employment. Results show a 1 % increase in new industrial robot installations per 10,000 workers reduces the unemployment rate by 0.037 %-0.039 %. The impact is more pronounced for male workers (0.045 %) than female workers (0.033 %), and youth unemployment is more significantly affected. Lastly, automation is found to reduce the unemployment rate by 0.052 % for people with intermediate education, yet with little effect on those with basic or advanced educational attainment.

本文利用 2005-2021 年 63 个国家的面板数据和广义矩方法，研究了工业机器人的使用对就业的影响。结果显示，每 10,000 名工人新安装的工业机器人每增加 1%，失业率就会降低 0.037%-0.039%。对男性工人的影响（0.045 %）比对女性工人的影响（0.033 %）更明显，对青年失业率的影响也更大。最后，研究发现，自动化可使中等教育水平人群的失业率降低 0.052%，但对基础教育或高等教育水平人群的影响甚微。

引用次数: 0

The Marshall-Lerner Condition: Stability of an Equilibrium or a System? 马歇尔-勒纳条件：平衡的稳定性还是系统的稳定性？

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100091

Hiroya Akiba

This article examines the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition from a broader perspective. Mundell (1968) regarded ML as the stability condition of the equilibrium, but not of the system. The violation of the ML condition by Japan's estimates is interpreted as a possible symptom of a negative exchange rate depreciation spiral in Thorbecke (2022). By constructing an open-economy macroeconomic model with three endogenous variables in three markets, and solving the model for the exchange rate, we examined the model's stability. Stability depends not only on the ML condition, but also on the configuration of the model's parameters. This implies that the ML condition alone is not responsible for the stability/instability of the model. Using the ML parameter estimated by Thorbecke (2022) and previously obtained money market parameters for the Japanese economy, we found that a simple model satisfies the necessary and sufficient conditions for stability. However, for an extended model, some cases fail to satisfy stability conditions. We further investigate the possible cause of this failure, and suggest that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unconventional monetary policies implemented after the economic bubble burst may be responsible.

本文从一个更广阔的角度来考察Marshall-Lerner （ML）条件。Mundell（1968）认为ML是平衡的稳定条件，而不是系统的稳定条件。Thorbecke（2022）将日本的估计违反ML条件解释为汇率负贬值螺旋的可能症状。通过构建三个市场中具有三个内生变量的开放经济宏观经济模型，并对汇率模型进行求解，检验模型的稳定性。稳定性不仅取决于机器学习条件，还取决于模型参数的配置。这意味着ML条件本身不负责模型的稳定性/不稳定性。使用Thorbecke（2022）估计的ML参数和之前获得的日本经济货币市场参数，我们发现一个简单的模型满足稳定性的充分必要条件。然而，对于扩展模型，有些情况下不满足稳定性条件。我们进一步调查了这种失败的可能原因，并认为日本央行（BOJ）在经济泡沫破裂后实施的非常规货币政策可能是罪魁祸首。

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引用次数: 0

Cooperation or conflict in northeast Asia? - An approach of NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index) 东北亚的合作还是冲突？- 东北亚区域合作指数（NARCI）的研究方法

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100089

Jiyoung Moon , Jehoon Park , Sunghoon Park

In order to measure the current status of Northeast Asian regional cooperation, more specifically in order to comprehensively evaluate whether the region is in a state of cooperation or conflict, this paper adopts a revised and improved combination of approaches used in three existing publications. The Northeast Asia Cooperation Index (NARCI) illustrates the strained situation in Northeast Asia as expected. Looking at the total score, it is -0.25 and -0.425 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is in a state of conflict rather than cooperation and is getting worse. In particular, the political and security situation is at its worst and the economy is also depressed. Regional trade, investment and energy cooperation are all deteriorating. However, some indicators point to the obvious contrast between cooperation and conflict in Northeast Asia giving unexpected dynamism. It should be emphasized that the regional value chain remains robust, even amid the conflict between the US and China.

为了衡量东北亚区域合作的现状，更具体地说，为了全面评估该地区是处于合作状态还是冲突状态，本文对现有三份出版物中使用的方法进行了修订和改进。东北亚合作指数（NARCI）如期显示了东北亚地区的紧张局势。从总分来看，2022 年和 2023 年的东北亚合作指数分别为-0.25 和-0.425，表明东北亚地区合作处于冲突而非合作的状态，并有恶化的趋势。尤其是政治和安全形势最差，经济也不景气。地区贸易、投资和能源合作都在恶化。然而，一些指标表明，东北亚地区合作与冲突之间的明显反差带来了意想不到的活力。需要强调的是，即使在中美冲突的情况下，地区价值链依然强劲。

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