Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

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Guest editor's introduction 特邀编辑导言

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100088

Byung-yeon Kim

引用次数: 0

The impact of the Global Minimum Tax on Vietnam's foreign direct investment attraction 全球最低税对越南吸引外国直接投资的影响

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100090

Le Quoc Hoi , Nguyen Thi Hoai Thu , Nguyen Xuan Hung , Phung Tu Uyen , Tran Thu Huong , Trinh Thi Huyen Minh , Hoang Thi Phuong Anh

This study assesses the impact of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) on the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam. The authors rely on the analytical framework of UNCTAD (2022) and descriptive statistical methods to analyze and evaluate the impact of GMT on FDI attraction. The research findings indicate that the implementation of GMT will affect tax competitiveness, profit shifting, investment location, and investment scale in various degrees and directions. In particular, GMT may create conflicts between current tax laws and GMT rules, leading to inconsistencies and difficulties in enforcing tax regulations. Vietnam will have to compete with other countries in asserting tax jurisdiction over investment activities on its territory. GMT may negatively affect FDI inflows into Vietnam in sectors with a high tax elasticity to investments. Vietnam may be forced to move away from competition for attracting FDI solely based on corporate income tax and shift to new forms of competition. Based on these findings, the paper proposes several recommendations for the Vietnamese government to refine policies related to GMT.

本研究评估了全球最低税（GMT）对越南吸引外国直接投资（FDI）的影响。作者依据联合国贸发会议（2022 年）的分析框架和描述性统计方法，分析和评估了全球最低税对吸引外国直接投资的影响。研究结果表明，GMT 的实施将在不同程度和方向上影响税收竞争力、利润转移、投资地点和投资规模。特别是，GMT 可能会造成现行税法与 GMT 规则之间的冲突，导致税收法规的不一致和执行困难。越南将不得不与其他国家竞争对其境内投资活动的税收管辖权。在税收弹性较高的投资领域，GMT 可能会对流入越南的外国直接投资产生负面影响。越南可能被迫放弃仅以企业所得税为基础的吸引外国直接投资的竞争，转向新的竞争形式。基于上述结论，本文为越南政府完善与GMT相关的政策提出了若干建议。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of COVID-19 and border closures on North Korean markets: A comparison with international prices COVID-19 和边境关闭对朝鲜市场的影响：与国际价格的比较

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100096

Seungho Jung , Dawool Kim , Kyoochul Kim

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 and border closures on North Korean markets by comparing the prices of key goods—rice, gasoline, diesel, and exchange rates—with those in the Chinese and global markets. By analyzing market price data, we assess North Korea's economic connectivity to international markets, particularly through China, and how pandemic-induced disruptions affected this linkage. Empirical results reveal that North Korean market prices for these goods generally maintain a long-term equilibrium relationship with international and Chinese prices, although the COVID-19 period disrupted this relationship. These findings suggest that North Korea's macroeconomic stability, especially price levels, is influenced by external factors through its economic ties with China.

本研究通过比较主要商品--大米、汽油、柴油和汇率--的价格与中国和全球市场的价格，考察了 COVID-19 和边境关闭对朝鲜市场的影响。通过分析市场价格数据，我们评估了朝鲜与国际市场（尤其是通过中国）的经济联系，以及大流行病引发的混乱对这种联系的影响。实证结果显示，朝鲜这些商品的市场价格一般与国际和中国价格保持长期均衡关系，尽管 COVID-19 期间破坏了这种关系。这些研究结果表明，北朝鲜的宏观经济稳定性，尤其是价格水平，受到其与中国经济联系的外部因素的影响。

引用次数: 0

Japan and South Korea's engagement in the Chinese market post-RCEP implementation: A case study of the semiconductor industry 实施《关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》后日本和韩国在中国市场的参与情况：半导体行业案例研究

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100085

Yuxin Peng (Ph.D. student at Ritsumeikan University)

After the RCEP implementation in 2022, trade differences emerged between Japan and South Korea with China, especially in semiconductors. Japan's exports to China declined, while South Korea's grew. This study uses qualitative and quantitative methods to explain post-RCEP semiconductor trade differences, focusing on value chain complementarity, new tariff rates, and U.S. factors. Three conclusions: 1) Within the global value chain, the different positions of Japan and South Korea in the semiconductor sectors compared to China result in varying levels of market complementarity between Japan and China and South Korea and China; South Korea, in particular, exhibits a significantly higher potential market. 2) In terms of reducing tariff barriers under RCEP, compared to Japan, South Korea experienced a more substantial decline in semiconductor tariff rates in the Chinese market. 3) The non-tariff barrier sanctions imposed by the United States on Chinese semiconductors in 2022 influenced trade choices for Japan and South Korea. Japan, being more loyal to the United States, tends to align with U.S. policies, leading to a reduction in semiconductor trade with China.

2022 年 RCEP 实施后，日本和韩国与中国的贸易出现了差异，尤其是在半导体方面。日本对华出口下降，而韩国对华出口增长。本研究采用定性和定量方法来解释 RCEP 后的半导体贸易差异，重点关注价值链互补性、新关税税率和美国因素。研究得出三个结论1）在全球价值链中，与中国相比，日本和韩国在半导体行业的地位不同，导致日本与中国、韩国与中国之间的市场互补性程度不同；尤其是韩国，其潜在市场明显更高。2) 在 RCEP 框架下降低关税壁垒方面，与日本相比，韩国在中国市场的半导体关税税率下降幅度更大。3) 2022 年美国对中国半导体实施的非关税壁垒制裁影响了日本和韩国的贸易选择。日本更忠于美国，倾向于与美国政策保持一致，导致与中国的半导体贸易减少。

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引用次数: 0

Does automation really reduce jobs? 自动化真的会减少工作岗位吗？

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100099

Zheng Fang , Soon Hock Kang , Sandra Myo Han May

Using panel data from 63 countries in 2005–2021 and the generalised method of moments, this paper examines the impact of industrial robot utilisation on employment. Results show a 1 % increase in new industrial robot installations per 10,000 workers reduces the unemployment rate by 0.037 %-0.039 %. The impact is more pronounced for male workers (0.045 %) than female workers (0.033 %), and youth unemployment is more significantly affected. Lastly, automation is found to reduce the unemployment rate by 0.052 % for people with intermediate education, yet with little effect on those with basic or advanced educational attainment.

本文利用 2005-2021 年 63 个国家的面板数据和广义矩方法，研究了工业机器人的使用对就业的影响。结果显示，每 10,000 名工人新安装的工业机器人每增加 1%，失业率就会降低 0.037%-0.039%。对男性工人的影响（0.045 %）比对女性工人的影响（0.033 %）更明显，对青年失业率的影响也更大。最后，研究发现，自动化可使中等教育水平人群的失业率降低 0.052%，但对基础教育或高等教育水平人群的影响甚微。

引用次数: 0

Cooperation or conflict in northeast Asia? - An approach of NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index) 东北亚的合作还是冲突？- 东北亚区域合作指数（NARCI）的研究方法

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100089

Jiyoung Moon , Jehoon Park , Sunghoon Park

In order to measure the current status of Northeast Asian regional cooperation, more specifically in order to comprehensively evaluate whether the region is in a state of cooperation or conflict, this paper adopts a revised and improved combination of approaches used in three existing publications. The Northeast Asia Cooperation Index (NARCI) illustrates the strained situation in Northeast Asia as expected. Looking at the total score, it is -0.25 and -0.425 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is in a state of conflict rather than cooperation and is getting worse. In particular, the political and security situation is at its worst and the economy is also depressed. Regional trade, investment and energy cooperation are all deteriorating. However, some indicators point to the obvious contrast between cooperation and conflict in Northeast Asia giving unexpected dynamism. It should be emphasized that the regional value chain remains robust, even amid the conflict between the US and China.

为了衡量东北亚区域合作的现状，更具体地说，为了全面评估该地区是处于合作状态还是冲突状态，本文对现有三份出版物中使用的方法进行了修订和改进。东北亚合作指数（NARCI）如期显示了东北亚地区的紧张局势。从总分来看，2022 年和 2023 年的东北亚合作指数分别为-0.25 和-0.425，表明东北亚地区合作处于冲突而非合作的状态，并有恶化的趋势。尤其是政治和安全形势最差，经济也不景气。地区贸易、投资和能源合作都在恶化。然而，一些指标表明，东北亚地区合作与冲突之间的明显反差带来了意想不到的活力。需要强调的是，即使在中美冲突的情况下，地区价值链依然强劲。

引用次数: 0

How oil prices impact the Taiwanese economy: Evidence from the stock market 石油价格如何影响台湾经济？来自股市的证据

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100086

Willem Thorbecke

Oil prices are volatile. How do oil prices affect Taiwanese industries? This paper investigates how oil price increases driven by shocks to global aggregate demand and to oil supply affect Taiwanese sectoral stock returns. It uses Hamilton's (2014) approach to divide oil price changes into portions driven by demand and supply factors. The results indicate that the semiconductor sector and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are harmed by oil price increases. Since oil prices are often high and quick to change, these findings imply that TSMC should expedite its goal of switching from depending on fossil fuels to utilizing renewable energy.

石油价格起伏不定。油价对台湾产业有何影响？本文研究了全球总需求和石油供应冲击导致的油价上涨如何影响台湾行业股票回报。本文采用 Hamilton（2014）的方法，将油价变化分为需求和供应因素驱动的两部分。结果表明，半导体行业和台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）受到油价上涨的损害。由于油价经常居高不下且变化迅速，这些发现意味着台积电应加快实现从依赖化石燃料转向利用可再生能源的目标。

引用次数: 0

Trade liberalization and export performance in China: Export-margin approach with firm-level data in 1995–2019 贸易自由化与中国的出口绩效：利用1995-2019年企业层面数据的出口利润率方法

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100094

Hui-Zheng Liu , Shi-Long Li , Kevin H. Zhang

A key challenge facing developing countries is how to promote export performance through trade liberalization (TL). Using large and highly disaggregate firm-level data with 6-digit HS categories for 1995–2019, we investigate the issue for China based on the recent literature of export margins (XM). Export growth is decomposed into extensive and intensive margins (EM and IM), and IM further into price and quantity margins (PM and QM). We develop three empirical hypotheses based on a theoretical model that includes external economies of scale (EES) and industrial agglomeration (IA) as well as TL-XM links. Then we take China's entry to World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment in difference-in-difference (DID) regressions. The estimate results suggest that TL increases both EM and IM (and QM) but reduces PM after China's entry to TWO in 2001. The finding is robust to various specifications of the empirical model and measurements of the variables. The further estimations show significantly positive effects of EES, IA, and their interactive terms with TL on EM, IM, and QM. The positive effects are larger for medium-tech industries than low-tech and high-tech industries.

发展中国家面临的一个关键挑战是如何通过贸易自由化（TL）促进出口绩效。利用 1995-2019 年 6 位数 HS 分类的大量高分类公司级数据，我们以最近的出口利润率（XM）文献为基础，对中国的这一问题进行了研究。出口增长被分解为广义边际和密集边际（EM 和 IM），而密集边际又被进一步分解为价格边际和数量边际（PM 和 QM）。我们根据包含外部规模经济（EES）和产业集聚（IA）以及 TL-XM 联系的理论模型提出了三个经验假设。然后，我们以 2001 年中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）为准自然实验，进行差分（DID）回归。估计结果表明，2001 年中国加入 TWO 后，TL 增加了 EM 和 IM（以及 QM），但减少了 PM。这一结论在不同的实证模型规格和变量测量中都是稳健的。进一步的估计结果显示，EES、IA 及其与 TL 的交互项对 EM、IM 和 QM 有明显的正效应。中等技术产业的正效应大于低技术产业和高技术产业。

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引用次数: 0

The fourth industrial revolution: Implications for the global economy and for the strategic competition between the United States and China

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100097

Josef C. Brada , Jehoon Park

During the First Industrial Revolution, industrialization led to incompatibilities between the economic sphere and a political sphere based on rule by monarchs and land-owning nobles. These incompatibilities led to poor economic outcomes for workers and, ultimately, to deep changes in the political system. In the Second and Third Industrial Revolutions, compatibility emerged between new technologies and political systems based on representative democracy, leading to favorable outcomes. The changes in technology brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution may lead to a growing incompatibility between the productive and political spheres, marked by polarization and conflict both within and among counties. A key aspect of this conflict is the rivalry between the United States and China. We evaluate the strengths of the respective countries and analyze which of them is likely to win the competition for dominance during the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

引用次数: 0

Profiling the perceived resilience of young farmers in Japanese agriculture 剖析日本农业中青年农民的抗风险能力

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100092

Yuna Seo, Naoto Shirasawa

The importance of younger farmers is increasing as Japan's agricultural sector faces a declining labor force. This study assessed young farmers' perceptions and resilience in response to agricultural changes and risks, using four criteria: robustness, adaptability, transformability, and cooperativeness. Farmers were categorized into two resilience profiles: high and low. High-resilience farmers displayed strong agricultural training, mathematical skills, and a positive approach to future challenges, managing farm functions efficiently. Conversely, the low-resilience group had limited training, lower mathematical abilities, and struggled with challenges, expressing concerns about economic issues and uncertainty. Recommendations for strengthening resilience include enhancing agricultural education, promoting rural life, and fostering innovative farming. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to build a resilient, sustainable agricultural sector in Japan.

随着日本农业部门面临劳动力减少的问题，年轻农民的重要性与日俱增。本研究以稳健性、适应性、可转变性和合作性这四个标准来评估年轻农民对农业变化和风险的看法和应变能力。农民被分为两种抗灾能力：高抗灾能力和低抗灾能力。抗灾能力强的农民受过良好的农业培训，掌握数学技能，能积极应对未来的挑战，有效地管理农场功能。与此相反，低抗逆能力组的培训有限，数学能力较低，在挑战面前举步维艰，对经济问题和不确定性表示担忧。加强抗灾能力的建议包括加强农业教育、促进农村生活和培育创新型农业。这些见解为决策者提供了宝贵的指导，有助于他们在日本建立一个具有抗灾能力、可持续发展的农业部门。

引用次数: 0

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