Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

英文中文

The impact of economic policy uncertainty on agricultural prices: Evidence from China

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100100

Li Hao, Lee Ki-Seong

This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in agriculture and their effects on the economy. According to the traditional supply and demand theory, prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, agricultural product prices rise, increasing consumers’ cost of living. It potentially causes panic among public and endangers social stability. Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, farmers are forced to lower prices to promote sales, which jeopardizes their income. It may pose threat to consumers’ food safety. Therefore, the stable development of agriculture is of paramount importance in maintaining the country’s economic and social stability. This study examines the transmission mechanism and time-varying impact of economic policy uncertainty on the price volatility of different kinds of agricultural products, using the TVP-VAR model, based on the economic policy uncertainty index and agricultural product price data.

引用次数: 0

How oil prices impact the Taiwanese economy: Evidence from the stock market 石油价格如何影响台湾经济？来自股市的证据

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100086

Willem Thorbecke

Oil prices are volatile. How do oil prices affect Taiwanese industries? This paper investigates how oil price increases driven by shocks to global aggregate demand and to oil supply affect Taiwanese sectoral stock returns. It uses Hamilton's (2014) approach to divide oil price changes into portions driven by demand and supply factors. The results indicate that the semiconductor sector and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are harmed by oil price increases. Since oil prices are often high and quick to change, these findings imply that TSMC should expedite its goal of switching from depending on fossil fuels to utilizing renewable energy.

石油价格起伏不定。油价对台湾产业有何影响？本文研究了全球总需求和石油供应冲击导致的油价上涨如何影响台湾行业股票回报。本文采用 Hamilton（2014）的方法，将油价变化分为需求和供应因素驱动的两部分。结果表明，半导体行业和台湾半导体制造公司（TSMC）受到油价上涨的损害。由于油价经常居高不下且变化迅速，这些发现意味着台积电应加快实现从依赖化石燃料转向利用可再生能源的目标。

引用次数: 0

Trade liberalization and export performance in China: Export-margin approach with firm-level data in 1995–2019 贸易自由化与中国的出口绩效：利用1995-2019年企业层面数据的出口利润率方法

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100094

Hui-Zheng Liu , Shi-Long Li , Kevin H. Zhang

A key challenge facing developing countries is how to promote export performance through trade liberalization (TL). Using large and highly disaggregate firm-level data with 6-digit HS categories for 1995–2019, we investigate the issue for China based on the recent literature of export margins (XM). Export growth is decomposed into extensive and intensive margins (EM and IM), and IM further into price and quantity margins (PM and QM). We develop three empirical hypotheses based on a theoretical model that includes external economies of scale (EES) and industrial agglomeration (IA) as well as TL-XM links. Then we take China's entry to World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment in difference-in-difference (DID) regressions. The estimate results suggest that TL increases both EM and IM (and QM) but reduces PM after China's entry to TWO in 2001. The finding is robust to various specifications of the empirical model and measurements of the variables. The further estimations show significantly positive effects of EES, IA, and their interactive terms with TL on EM, IM, and QM. The positive effects are larger for medium-tech industries than low-tech and high-tech industries.

发展中国家面临的一个关键挑战是如何通过贸易自由化（TL）促进出口绩效。利用 1995-2019 年 6 位数 HS 分类的大量高分类公司级数据，我们以最近的出口利润率（XM）文献为基础，对中国的这一问题进行了研究。出口增长被分解为广义边际和密集边际（EM 和 IM），而密集边际又被进一步分解为价格边际和数量边际（PM 和 QM）。我们根据包含外部规模经济（EES）和产业集聚（IA）以及 TL-XM 联系的理论模型提出了三个经验假设。然后，我们以 2001 年中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）为准自然实验，进行差分（DID）回归。估计结果表明，2001 年中国加入 TWO 后，TL 增加了 EM 和 IM（以及 QM），但减少了 PM。这一结论在不同的实证模型规格和变量测量中都是稳健的。进一步的估计结果显示，EES、IA 及其与 TL 的交互项对 EM、IM 和 QM 有明显的正效应。中等技术产业的正效应大于低技术产业和高技术产业。

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引用次数: 0

The fourth industrial revolution: Implications for the global economy and for the strategic competition between the United States and China 第四次工业革命：对全球经济和中美战略竞争的影响

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100097

Josef C. Brada , Jehoon Park

During the First Industrial Revolution, industrialization led to incompatibilities between the economic sphere and a political sphere based on rule by monarchs and land-owning nobles. These incompatibilities led to poor economic outcomes for workers and, ultimately, to deep changes in the political system. In the Second and Third Industrial Revolutions, compatibility emerged between new technologies and political systems based on representative democracy, leading to favorable outcomes. The changes in technology brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution may lead to a growing incompatibility between the productive and political spheres, marked by polarization and conflict both within and among counties. A key aspect of this conflict is the rivalry between the United States and China. We evaluate the strengths of the respective countries and analyze which of them is likely to win the competition for dominance during the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

在第一次工业革命期间，工业化导致了经济领域与基于君主和拥有土地的贵族统治的政治领域之间的不相容。这些不相容导致工人的经济状况不佳，并最终导致政治体系发生深刻变化。在第二次和第三次工业革命中，新技术与以代议制民主为基础的政治制度之间出现了兼容性，导致了有利的结果。第四次工业革命带来的技术变革可能导致生产领域和政治领域之间日益不相容，其特征是国家内部和国家之间的两极分化和冲突。这场冲突的一个关键方面是美国和中国之间的竞争。我们评估了各自国家的优势，并分析了哪些国家有可能在第四次工业革命中赢得主导地位的竞争。

引用次数: 0

Profiling the perceived resilience of young farmers in Japanese agriculture 剖析日本农业中青年农民的抗风险能力

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100092

Yuna Seo, Naoto Shirasawa

The importance of younger farmers is increasing as Japan's agricultural sector faces a declining labor force. This study assessed young farmers' perceptions and resilience in response to agricultural changes and risks, using four criteria: robustness, adaptability, transformability, and cooperativeness. Farmers were categorized into two resilience profiles: high and low. High-resilience farmers displayed strong agricultural training, mathematical skills, and a positive approach to future challenges, managing farm functions efficiently. Conversely, the low-resilience group had limited training, lower mathematical abilities, and struggled with challenges, expressing concerns about economic issues and uncertainty. Recommendations for strengthening resilience include enhancing agricultural education, promoting rural life, and fostering innovative farming. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to build a resilient, sustainable agricultural sector in Japan.

随着日本农业部门面临劳动力减少的问题，年轻农民的重要性与日俱增。本研究以稳健性、适应性、可转变性和合作性这四个标准来评估年轻农民对农业变化和风险的看法和应变能力。农民被分为两种抗灾能力：高抗灾能力和低抗灾能力。抗灾能力强的农民受过良好的农业培训，掌握数学技能，能积极应对未来的挑战，有效地管理农场功能。与此相反，低抗逆能力组的培训有限，数学能力较低，在挑战面前举步维艰，对经济问题和不确定性表示担忧。加强抗灾能力的建议包括加强农业教育、促进农村生活和培育创新型农业。这些见解为决策者提供了宝贵的指导，有助于他们在日本建立一个具有抗灾能力、可持续发展的农业部门。

引用次数: 0

Economic growth and foreign direct investment in Asia: When investors imperfectly fulfil approved investment plans 亚洲的经济增长和外国直接投资：当投资者不完全履行已批准的投资计划时

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100093

Abigail S. Hornstein

Foreign direct investment (FDI) may represent an expansion in the domestic capital supply, which could thus increase GDP growth through the investment and consumption sectors and generate productivity increases. We examine this hypothesis by looking earlier in the investment process and use little-known data on FDI approvals from ten Asian countries that have routinely required advance approval of FDI and have also disclosed this data. We show that the approved FDI predicts actual FDI inflows, and that on average more FDI is approved than realized. The approved FDI is used to create an FDI commitment ratio and gap, which are thus absolute and relative measures of how FDI pledges are fulfilled. We then examine how the host economy is affected by the FDI commitment ratio and gap using an Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimator to examine an unbalanced dataset spanning 1967–2022. We find GDP growth forecasts are significantly affected by both FDI measures. However, actual GDP growth is affected negatively by the FDI gap, with the effects strongest at the 3-year horizon. Thus, we show that FDI initially displaces domestic capital before expanding the domestic capital supply.

外国直接投资（FDI）可能代表着国内资本供应的扩大，从而通过投资和消费部门提高国内生产总值的增长，并带来生产率的提高。我们通过研究投资过程的早期阶段来检验这一假设，并使用了鲜为人知的外国直接投资审批数据，这些数据来自十个亚洲国家，这些国家通常要求外国直接投资的提前审批，并披露了这些数据。我们的研究表明，批准的外国直接投资可以预测实际的外国直接投资流入量，而且平均而言，批准的外国直接投资多于实际的外国直接投资。批准的外国直接投资被用来创建外国直接投资承诺比率和差距，从而绝对和相对地衡量外国直接投资承诺的履行情况。然后，我们使用 Arellano-Bond 动态面板估算器，对 1967-2022 年间的非平衡数据集进行研究，考察东道国经济如何受到外国直接投资承诺比率和缺口的影响。我们发现，GDP 增长预测受到这两种外国直接投资措施的显著影响。然而，实际 GDP 增长受到外国直接投资缺口的负面影响，3 年期的影响最大。因此，我们表明，外国直接投资在扩大国内资本供应之前，最初会取代国内资本。

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引用次数: 0

Local corruption and corporate investment in an emerging market 新兴市场的地方腐败与企业投资

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100087

Thi Mai Nguyen, Quoc Trung Tran, Thi Thuy Trang Truong

This paper examines how local corruption determines corporate investment in Vietnam where local corruption is more relevant to firms’ business activities than central corruption. We use the informal payment score extracted from the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) database as a proxy of local corruption. With a sample of 5,852 observations from firms listed in Vietnam, we find that local corruption increases investment expenditure through decreasing underinvestment and increasing overinvestment.

在越南，地方腐败比中央腐败更影响企业的商业活动，本文研究了地方腐败如何决定企业投资。我们使用从越南省级竞争力指数（PCI）数据库中提取的非正式支付得分作为地方腐败的替代指标。通过对越南上市企业的 5,852 个样本观察，我们发现地方腐败会通过减少投资不足和增加过度投资来增加投资支出。

引用次数: 0

Geoeconomics of US-China tech rivalry and industrial policy 中美科技竞争的地缘经济学与产业政策

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100098

Kevin Honglin Zhang

The focus of the current US–China rivalry is mainly on technology and the race to dominate strategic emerging sectors. Industrial policy, as a return of key instrument, is playing an increasingly important role in both countries for competition. This paper aims to study several issues about US-China geoeconomic rivalry of technology and industrial policy adopted in the two countries. We first explore the evolution of China's technology advancement since 1978, focusing on industrial policy used to help China emerge as a global tech power. A theoretical framework is developed to explain how and why US-China geoeconomic tech rivalry arise. We argue that industrial policy plays a critical role in both the US and China to compete each other. We conclude that the intensifying US-Chinese rivalry has the potential to foster a new era of public policies characterized by global tech statism and tech nationalism.

当前中美竞争的焦点主要集中在技术和对战略性新兴产业的争夺上。产业政策作为关键手段的回归，在两国竞争中发挥着越来越重要的作用。本文旨在研究中美地缘经济竞争中两国技术和产业政策的几个问题。我们首先探讨了自 1978 年以来中国技术进步的演变，重点关注帮助中国崛起为全球科技强国的产业政策。我们建立了一个理论框架来解释中美地缘经济科技竞争是如何产生的以及产生的原因。我们认为，产业政策在中美两国的竞争中起着至关重要的作用。我们的结论是，日益加剧的中美竞争有可能促成一个以全球科技国家主义和科技民族主义为特征的公共政策新时代。

引用次数: 0

Comparing the effectiveness of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) in South Africa: An application of Keynes' Macroeconomic Theory 比较《非洲增长与机会法案》（AGOA）和中非合作论坛（FOCAC）在南非的成效：凯恩斯宏观经济理论的应用

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-05-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100081

Marvellous Ngundu , Mulatu F Zerihun , Malibongwe C Nyathi

This study applies Keynesian macroeconomic theory in the ARDL model to compare the growth effects of the US's AGOA and China's FOCAC multilateral trading systems in South Africa from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2022. The study uses South Africa's net exports with the corresponding partner as a proxy for each multilateral trading system. This quantification stems from the fact that South Africa's trade with the US and China has significantly improved since the establishment of AGOA and FOCAC in 2000. Our findings show that none of the multilateral trading systems contribute significantly to South Africa's economic growth. Rather, they appear to be used as strategic initiatives to gain access to mineral resources and facilitate the movement of mining machinery and other inputs into South Africa. To some extent, they are used as market-seeking initiatives, particularly FOCAC. It is worth noting, however, that the mineral resource preferences of these systems vary: while China prioritizes mineral products, the US prioritizes precious metals. This suggests that China and the US scramble for natural resources in South Africa, and possibly Africa in general, is complementary rather than competitive.

本研究在 ARDL 模型中运用凯恩斯宏观经济理论，比较了 2001 年第一季度至 2022 年第四季度美国的 AGOA 和中国的中非合作论坛多边贸易体系对南非经济增长的影响。该研究使用南非与相应伙伴的净出口额作为每个多边贸易体系的代理变量。之所以这样量化，是因为自 2000 年《非洲增长和机会法》和中非合作论坛成立以来，南非与美国和中国的贸易有了显著改善。我们的研究结果表明，没有一个多边贸易体系能对南非的经济增长做出重大贡献。相反，它们似乎被用作获取矿产资源、促进采矿机械和其他投入进入南非的战略举措。在某种程度上，它们被用作寻求市场的举措，尤其是中非合作论坛。但值得注意的是，这些体系对矿产资源的偏好各不相同：中国优先考虑矿产品，而美国则优先考虑贵金属。这表明，中国和美国对南非（甚至整个非洲）自然资源的争夺是互补性的，而非竞争性的。

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引用次数: 0

Does innovation facilitate meeting the CO2 emission reduction targets of China: A non-linear approach 创新是否有助于实现中国的二氧化碳减排目标？非线性方法

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100079

Yifan Wang , Nadia Doytch , Mohamed Elheddad , Wei Li , Mengna Chi

China has been implementing energy efficiency and CO₂ emission reduction schemes at the provincial level that have been embedded in the National Five Year Plans of the country. We set out to investigate the relationship between R&D expenditures and CO₂ emissions in China at the province level in the context of the planned emissions reduction targets. We explore the possibility of the existence of a non-linear relationship between R&D expenditures and CO₂ emissions with a non-parametric methodology, a fixed effect panel data quantile (FEQR) regression estimator applied to a panel of 30 provinces. We stratify the sample according to the five emissions reduction target tiers of the 12^th Five-Year National Plan of China and we investigate the role of R&D expenditures in emissions reduction within each of the tiers. We find an inverse U relationship with different turning points for the three middle tiers and a U-shaped relationship for the tier under the most stringent environmental regulation. We find no effect in the tier with the least stringent emissions reduction targets. A further investigation shows that the above results are attributed to sectors with relatively low energy intensity and not to the sectors of heavy industry. The results allow us to draw broad conclusions about the effectiveness of investment in new technologies as a means of meeting the CO₂ targets in China.

中国一直在省级层面实施节能和二氧化碳减排计划，并将其纳入国家五年计划。在计划减排目标的背景下，我们着手研究中国省一级研发支出与二氧化碳排放量之间的关系。我们采用非参数方法--固定效应面板数据量化（FEQR）回归估计器，对 30 个省的面板数据进行了估计，以探讨研发支出与二氧化碳排放量之间存在非线性关系的可能性。我们根据中国 "十二五 "国家规划的五个减排目标层级对样本进行了分层，并研究了每个层级中研发支出在减排中的作用。我们发现，中间三个层级的研发支出呈不同转折点的反 U 型关系，而环境监管最严格的层级的研发支出呈 U 型关系。在减排目标最不严格的层级中，我们没有发现任何影响。进一步的调查表明，上述结果归因于能源强度相对较低的部门，而不是重工业部门。通过这些结果，我们可以对新技术投资作为实现中国二氧化碳减排目标的一种手段的有效性得出大致结论。

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