Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

Using OECD Trade in Value Added (TiVA) database (2021, 2022) and Asian Development Bank (2022) dataset, this paper indicates that though India's GVC participation rate has risen over time, it was lower than that of several economies in Asia-Pacific and its relative share in participation gains was marginal. Nevertheless, India's relative share in forward and backward GVC content to (and from) the region was not as peripheral. Raising net participation gains will require key enablers, and stimulating the mutually reinforcing FDI-GVC relationship by attracting quality FDI inflows. Findings based on the panel, fixed-effects model support the hypotheses that production-based GVC participation, revealed comparative advantage based on value-added exports, the country's relative economic size, and economic complexity (in medium-to-high technology manufacturing sectors) positively affect economic upgrading through capturing a greater share in world's domestic value-added in an industry while relative GVC position has a negative effect.

In this paper, we explore the effects of India's federal structure on state-level fiscal responsibility. Drawing from a 1991–2018 dataset, we argue that higher levels of transfer and borrowing dependence (soft budget constraints) from the central government facilitate lower levels of fiscal responsibility by subnational governments. Our hypothesis is tested using panel regressions on fiscal responsibility outcomes across Indian states. We also evaluate the effects of the world's largest employment program, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), on subnational fiscal responsibility. We find that rural public employment measures are conducive to lower levels of fiscal responsibility. Soft budget constraints constitute a key structural feature of Indian federalism.

The Himalayas are of great strategic importance for China and India but the remote region remains relatively underdeveloped. This paper conducts a comparative analysis of China's Tibet and India's Ladakh with the aim of identifying common and idiosyncratic factors relevant for local economic development. A descriptive analysis explores the administrative, military, demographic, and economic factors in each region. Moreover, we use an ARDL model to examine the long-run relationship between fiscal transfers and regional growth. Lastly, three measures are employed to investigate the extent of integration between the Himalayan regions and the rest of their respective countries. The results indicate that Tibet and Ladakh exhibit many similarities related to a limited degree of regional autonomy, a strong military presence, and the importance of agriculture and services. The empirical investigation confirms the cointegration between transfers and growth. Regional integration is furthered by increasing inflows of domestic tourists and expanding freight traffic.

This paper examines the possibilities for, and obstacles to, the reunification of North and South Korea based on the experiences of the reunifications of Italy, the United States and Germany in the 19th and 20th centuries. Common elements of these reunifications include a slow convergence of incomes and productivity of regions, important political barriers to the creation of a unified state and the need to neutralize as far as possible the power of the economic, political and social elites of the units being incorporated into the newly-created state. I find that these problems occur in all cases examined, and, based on these findings I offer policy recommendations for possible Korean unification.

The U.S. real effective exchange rate is at its highest level since 1985. In that year, the U.S. and its trading partners coordinated a depreciation of the dollar and the U.S. agreed to reduce its budget deficit. This paper reports that a dollar depreciation today would still improve U.S. trade imbalances with East Asia and the world. East Asian countries would also benefit from a dollar depreciation because it would lower the local currency costs of imported oil, commodities, and food and reduce imported inflation. The U.S. and East Asia should consider engineering a coordinated dollar depreciation and the U.S. should again reduce its budget deficit.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine presents many challenges to the international order. To understand what is at stake, we argue that the nature of the political regime matters to understand this conflict. We propose a classification of three different types of political regimes (empires, nation states and democracies) and propose a comparative analysis of a number of their institutional and economic dimensions: tendency towards geographical expansionism or fragmentation, cultural heterogeneity, focus of public spending and a number of other variables. We use this setup to analyze the situation in Northeast Asia as well as the consequences of the invasion of Ukraine for that region.

If North Korea's economic transformation has been largely informal and contested at the level of the state, to what extent is North Korea's economic transformation reflected in North Korean economic research? In this article, we analyze a dataset of North Korean domestic journal articles on economics from 2000 to 2019. We trace trends over time in the topics covered by economics research in North Korea, and compare them with formal changes in North Korean economic policy under Kim Jong-il and, particularly, Kim Jong-un. Research in potentially economic transformation-related topics tends to increase in response to formal economic policy changes. Kim Jong-un's rule has seen the development of an integrated economic research networks, and a shift to articles that have focused on the practicalities of implementing policies. We close with implications for unification and engagement.

It is in Europe's interest to preserve the rules-based international order, fending off challenges to it by revisionist powers, notably China and Russia. Europe has opted to jump on the US bandwagon to preserve the rules-based order and acts as balance against China. But Europe's approach to China is not likely to be confined rigidly to the parameter set by the US. China's economy continues to be attractive to Europe's trading economy, and, depending on the course of China's foreign policy in the coming years, Europe's position might soften somewhat. In the process, disagreements and conflicts might emerge among stakeholders with regard to the direction, pace, and degree of adjustment in the relationship with China.

Using multinomial logistic regressions, this study examines whether human capital accumulated in North Korea (NK) or South Korea (SK) is associated with decreases in welfare receipt among North Korean Defectors (NKDs) in SK. Human capital is measured by (1) (higher) education in NK or SK, (2) work experience in NK or SK, and (3) participation in the employment support programs in SK. This study shows that there are two ways to ensure the economic well-being of NKDs: through employment and marriage. Removing the confounding effect from marriage, it suggests that higher education in NK is associated with decreases in full receipt of welfare and that both blue-collar and white-collar job experience in SK is associated with decreases in both partial and full receipt. It also suggests that license acquisition support is associated with decreases in both partial and full receipt. These findings imply that to facilitate the economic adjustment of NKDs, the government needs to focus on accumulating the human capital of NKDs, mostly without higher education in NK, through work experience in SK.

Although blockchain technology is disruptive, revolutionary, and foundational, its application across different countries with varying levels of socio/economic development is uneven. Accordingly, this paper examines blockchain technology in ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). With its sizeable populations and economic diversity, ASEAN provides a suitable staging ground for examining the factors that facilitate or impede blockchain technology. This paper discusses the preconditions for blockchain adoption, enabling factors relating to regulatory policies, and illustrative cases depicting new blockchain solutions or improvements over current practices. Based on these narratives, a six-step roadmap delineates the need for regulatory clarity, the balance between public versus private policies, and pathways for securing competitive strategies and organizational advantages.