Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

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Analysis of the impacts of financial development on green growth: How does institutional quality matter? 金融发展对绿色增长的影响分析：制度质量如何起作用？

IF 1.5

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2025.100111

Ngoc Toan Bui , Thu-Trang Thi Doan

This study examines the impact of financial development on green growth in ASEAN-6 countries, offering empirical insights relevant to ongoing efforts toward sustainable economic development. A key contribution of the study is its focus on the moderating role of institutional quality in this relationship, which remains underexplored in the existing literature. Using both Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) and Bayesian regression, the study ensures robustness in its findings. The results show that financial development positively influences green growth, regardless of the measurement approach used. More importantly, institutional quality significantly amplifies this effect. Notably, the moderating role of institutional quality is stronger for financial markets than for financial institutions, marking a novel finding of this study. Therefore, the research not only contributes to the current literature by clarifying the moderating role of institutional quality but also distinguishes between the impacts of financial market development and financial institution development on green growth.

本研究考察了金融发展对东盟6国绿色增长的影响，为可持续经济发展的持续努力提供了实证见解。该研究的一个关键贡献是它关注了制度质量在这种关系中的调节作用，这在现有文献中仍未得到充分探讨。采用广义矩法（GMM）和贝叶斯回归，保证了研究结果的稳健性。结果表明，无论采用何种衡量方法，金融发展都对绿色增长产生积极影响。更重要的是，制度质量显著放大了这一效应。值得注意的是，制度质量对金融市场的调节作用强于对金融机构的调节作用，这是本研究的一个新发现。因此，本研究不仅有助于阐明制度质量的调节作用，还有助于区分金融市场发展和金融机构发展对绿色增长的影响。

引用次数: 0

South Asian global value chain integration patterns: A value-added perspective 南亚全球价值链整合模式：增值视角

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2025-07-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2025.100110

LILA BALLAV BHUSAL

This study analyzes the integration of South Asia into global value chains (GVCs) through a value-added decomposition framework that distinguishes simple and complex participation modes. Using the Asian Development Bank Multi-Regional Input-Output database, which spans two decades, the study examines sectoral and country-level GVC participation, bilateral value-added flows, and global integration patterns. The findings demonstrate a persistent structural asymmetry where backward participation substantially exceeds forward participation across all economies. Sectoral analysis indicates that labor-intensive sectors demonstrate forward participation, and capital-intensive industries show stronger backward orientation. The bilateral examination uncovers distinct integration spheres: India dominates Nepal and Bhutan’s production networks through simple GVC linkages, while China increasingly supplies intermediate inputs to Bangladesh and Pakistan. Despite growing intermediate goods trade replacing final goods imports, complex GVC integration remains limited throughout the region. By moving beyond gross trade metrics, this study offers country-specific insights into structural dependencies and identifies key impediments—tariff regimes, infrastructure gaps, and regional fragmentation—that constrain upgrading and value capture, informing strategies for more inclusive GVC integration in South Asia.

本研究通过区分简单和复杂参与模式的增值分解框架，分析了南亚融入全球价值链的情况。该研究利用亚洲开发银行跨越20年的多区域投入产出数据库，考察了部门和国家层面的全球价值链参与、双边增值流动和全球一体化模式。研究结果表明，在所有经济体中，存在持续的结构性不对称，即落后参与大大超过前进参与。行业分析表明，劳动密集型行业表现出正向参与，资本密集型行业表现出较强的逆向参与。双边考察揭示了不同的整合领域：印度通过简单的全球价值链联系主导了尼泊尔和不丹的生产网络，而中国则越来越多地向孟加拉国和巴基斯坦提供中间投入。尽管不断增长的中间产品贸易取代了最终产品进口，但整个地区复杂的全球价值链整合仍然有限。通过超越贸易总额指标，本研究对结构性依赖提供了具体国家的见解，并确定了制约升级和价值获取的主要障碍——关税制度、基础设施差距和区域碎片化，为南亚更具包容性的全球价值链整合战略提供信息。

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引用次数: 0

Turning back the clock: The changing nature of North Korean food insecurity 时钟倒转：朝鲜粮食不安全的变化性质

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2025-03-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2025.100107

Marcus Noland

Over the past several years, North Korea has adopted legal changes that are increasing the centrality of the Workers Party of Korea and the state in agricultural production, distribution, and consumption. This development changes the basic nature of food insecurity in North Korea from one in which access to food is determined by the ability to purchase it in the market to one in which access to food is determined by political status. This development is of potential policy relevance: Although current conditions do not appear to be severe, if and when North Korea experiences another food crisis, foreign partners are likely to encounter a state-dominated model resembling the system that existed in the early 1990s at the onset of the famine and with it the attendant problems that humanitarian-relief agencies confronted at that time.

在过去的几年里，朝鲜对法律进行了修改，增加了朝鲜劳动党和国家在农业生产、分配和消费方面的中心地位。这一发展改变了朝鲜粮食不安全的基本性质，从获得粮食的能力取决于在市场上购买粮食的能力，转变为获得粮食的能力取决于政治地位。这一发展具有潜在的政策相关性：尽管目前的情况似乎并不严重，但如果朝鲜再次经历粮食危机，外国合作伙伴可能会遇到一个国家主导的模式，类似于20世纪90年代初饥荒开始时存在的系统，以及当时人道主义救援机构面临的随之而来的问题。

引用次数: 0

The Belt and Road Initiative and Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment: Comparison and current status “一带一路”倡议与全球基础设施与投资伙伴关系：比较与现状

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2025-02-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2025.100106

Mykyta Simonov

The last decade has witnessed the development and implementation of two major infrastructure initiatives: China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) by the United States and the G7 countries. The escalating political confrontation between China and the United States made these initiatives crucial for strengthening their geopolitical positions and economic dominance. This paper examines the impact of BRI on competitive strategies of the United States and its partners in response to China’s growing influence, thereby enhancing the understanding of contemporary political and economic dynamics. Key factors supporting the thesis of increasing competition and confrontation are considered, demonstrating that U.S. leadership leverages its infrastructure initiatives to oppose and constrain China’s influence at both the foreign policy and economic levels. Our analysis identifies factors directly influencing the development of these initiatives and compares the principles of BRI and PGII to objectively evaluate their effectiveness.

过去十年见证了两大基础设施倡议的发展和实施：中国的“一带一路”倡议（BRI）和美国和七国集团国家的全球基础设施与投资伙伴关系（PGII）。中美之间不断升级的政治对抗使得这些举措对于加强两国的地缘政治地位和经济主导地位至关重要。本文考察了“一带一路”倡议对美国及其合作伙伴应对中国日益增长的影响力的竞争战略的影响，从而加强了对当代政治和经济动态的理解。本文考虑了支持竞争和对抗加剧这一论点的关键因素，表明美国的领导地位利用其基础设施倡议，在外交政策和经济层面上反对和限制中国的影响力。我们的分析确定了直接影响这些倡议发展的因素，并比较了BRI和PGII的原则，以客观评估其有效性。

引用次数: 0

A two-year assessment of the IRA's subsidies to the electric vehicles in the US: Uptake and assembly plants for batteries and EVs 对美国政府对电动汽车补贴的两年评估：电池和电动汽车的吸收和组装工厂

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-12-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100102

Sandrine Levasseur

In this paper, we assess electric vehicle (EV) tax credits in the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the largest significant action in favour of climate change in US history. We find that the provisions of the IRA have so far done little to increase the uptake of EVs by US households, accounting at best for 10 % of monthly new light vehicle sales since the IRA was passed. This is well below most ex-ante estimates of EV uptake under the legislation. In contrast, the IRA has triggered EV battery plant projects in the United States, reinforcing the move by automakers to secure their supply chain since the Covid crisis. In total, current and projected GWh capacity would allow 17.0 million EVs to be powered annually by 2030, compared to the 1.2 million EVs sold in 2023. Thus, to date, the IRA has created a potentially huge imbalance between supply and demand in the US EV market. We also document the strategies followed by automakers to capture EV market share in the United States, with a focus on whether they are incumbents or startups, and whether they are based in allied countries.

在本文中，我们评估了美国通货膨胀减少法案（IRA）中的电动汽车（EV）税收抵免，这是美国历史上有利于气候变化的最大重大行动。我们发现，到目前为止，IRA的规定对增加美国家庭对电动汽车的吸收作用不大，自IRA通过以来，最多只占每月新轻型汽车销量的10%。这远远低于立法规定的电动汽车吸收的大多数事前估计。相反，IRA在美国启动了电动汽车电池厂项目，加强了自新冠疫情以来汽车制造商确保供应链的行动。总的来说，到2030年，目前和预计的GWh容量将允许每年为1700万辆电动汽车供电，而2023年的电动汽车销量为120万辆。因此，到目前为止，IRA已经造成了美国电动汽车市场供需之间潜在的巨大不平衡。我们还记录了汽车制造商在美国占领电动汽车市场份额所遵循的策略，重点关注它们是老牌企业还是初创企业，以及它们是否位于盟国。

引用次数: 0

Identification with dominant ethnic groups and attitudes towards government redistribution in Southeast Asia 东南亚对主导族群的认同与对政府再分配的态度

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100095

Joseph J. Capuno

Does identification with dominant but different ethnic groups lead individuals to diverge in their preferences for redistribution? This paper analyzes the role of the relative population size of an individual's ethnic group in shaping her attitude towards government's role in reducing income gaps in Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Using a pool of nationally representative survey data, we classify the respondents according to their affiliations with dominant ethnic groups, and then apply probit regression models. Relative to the biggest ethnic group, the second biggest ethnic group is consistently found to have less preference for redistribution, after controlling for other factors. There are no systematic differences in such preferences between the biggest ethnic group and other smaller ethnic groups. Thus, in addition to shared norms and beliefs among ethnic group members, their group's dominance status, which determine their potential influence on domestic polices, also motivate their attitudes towards government redistribution.

对占主导地位但不同的种族群体的认同是否会导致个人对再分配的偏好出现分歧？本文分析了在印度尼西亚、马来西亚、菲律宾、新加坡和泰国，一个人所属族裔的相对人口规模在影响其对政府在缩小收入差距方面的作用的态度方面所起的作用。利用具有全国代表性的调查数据池，我们根据受访者与优势族群的隶属关系对受访者进行分类，然后应用probit回归模型。在控制了其他因素后，与最大的族群相比，第二大族群对再分配的偏好一直较低。在最大的民族和其他较小的民族之间，这种偏好没有系统的差异。因此，除了少数民族成员之间共有的规范和信仰外，决定其对国内政策的潜在影响的群体主导地位也促使他们对政府再分配的态度。

引用次数: 0

Guest editor's introduction 特邀编辑导言

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100088

Byung-yeon Kim

引用次数: 0

The impact of the Global Minimum Tax on Vietnam's foreign direct investment attraction 全球最低税对越南吸引外国直接投资的影响

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100090

Le Quoc Hoi , Nguyen Thi Hoai Thu , Nguyen Xuan Hung , Phung Tu Uyen , Tran Thu Huong , Trinh Thi Huyen Minh , Hoang Thi Phuong Anh

This study assesses the impact of the Global Minimum Tax (GMT) on the attraction of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam. The authors rely on the analytical framework of UNCTAD (2022) and descriptive statistical methods to analyze and evaluate the impact of GMT on FDI attraction. The research findings indicate that the implementation of GMT will affect tax competitiveness, profit shifting, investment location, and investment scale in various degrees and directions. In particular, GMT may create conflicts between current tax laws and GMT rules, leading to inconsistencies and difficulties in enforcing tax regulations. Vietnam will have to compete with other countries in asserting tax jurisdiction over investment activities on its territory. GMT may negatively affect FDI inflows into Vietnam in sectors with a high tax elasticity to investments. Vietnam may be forced to move away from competition for attracting FDI solely based on corporate income tax and shift to new forms of competition. Based on these findings, the paper proposes several recommendations for the Vietnamese government to refine policies related to GMT.

本研究评估了全球最低税（GMT）对越南吸引外国直接投资（FDI）的影响。作者依据联合国贸发会议（2022 年）的分析框架和描述性统计方法，分析和评估了全球最低税对吸引外国直接投资的影响。研究结果表明，GMT 的实施将在不同程度和方向上影响税收竞争力、利润转移、投资地点和投资规模。特别是，GMT 可能会造成现行税法与 GMT 规则之间的冲突，导致税收法规的不一致和执行困难。越南将不得不与其他国家竞争对其境内投资活动的税收管辖权。在税收弹性较高的投资领域，GMT 可能会对流入越南的外国直接投资产生负面影响。越南可能被迫放弃仅以企业所得税为基础的吸引外国直接投资的竞争，转向新的竞争形式。基于上述结论，本文为越南政府完善与GMT相关的政策提出了若干建议。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of COVID-19 and border closures on North Korean markets: A comparison with international prices COVID-19 和边境关闭对朝鲜市场的影响：与国际价格的比较

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100096

Seungho Jung , Dawool Kim , Kyoochul Kim

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 and border closures on North Korean markets by comparing the prices of key goods—rice, gasoline, diesel, and exchange rates—with those in the Chinese and global markets. By analyzing market price data, we assess North Korea's economic connectivity to international markets, particularly through China, and how pandemic-induced disruptions affected this linkage. Empirical results reveal that North Korean market prices for these goods generally maintain a long-term equilibrium relationship with international and Chinese prices, although the COVID-19 period disrupted this relationship. These findings suggest that North Korea's macroeconomic stability, especially price levels, is influenced by external factors through its economic ties with China.

本研究通过比较主要商品--大米、汽油、柴油和汇率--的价格与中国和全球市场的价格，考察了 COVID-19 和边境关闭对朝鲜市场的影响。通过分析市场价格数据，我们评估了朝鲜与国际市场（尤其是通过中国）的经济联系，以及大流行病引发的混乱对这种联系的影响。实证结果显示，朝鲜这些商品的市场价格一般与国际和中国价格保持长期均衡关系，尽管 COVID-19 期间破坏了这种关系。这些研究结果表明，北朝鲜的宏观经济稳定性，尤其是价格水平，受到其与中国经济联系的外部因素的影响。

引用次数: 0

Japan and South Korea's engagement in the Chinese market post-RCEP implementation: A case study of the semiconductor industry 实施《关于建立更紧密经贸关系的安排》后日本和韩国在中国市场的参与情况：半导体行业案例研究

Asia and the Global Economy

Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100085

Yuxin Peng (Ph.D. student at Ritsumeikan University)

After the RCEP implementation in 2022, trade differences emerged between Japan and South Korea with China, especially in semiconductors. Japan's exports to China declined, while South Korea's grew. This study uses qualitative and quantitative methods to explain post-RCEP semiconductor trade differences, focusing on value chain complementarity, new tariff rates, and U.S. factors. Three conclusions: 1) Within the global value chain, the different positions of Japan and South Korea in the semiconductor sectors compared to China result in varying levels of market complementarity between Japan and China and South Korea and China; South Korea, in particular, exhibits a significantly higher potential market. 2) In terms of reducing tariff barriers under RCEP, compared to Japan, South Korea experienced a more substantial decline in semiconductor tariff rates in the Chinese market. 3) The non-tariff barrier sanctions imposed by the United States on Chinese semiconductors in 2022 influenced trade choices for Japan and South Korea. Japan, being more loyal to the United States, tends to align with U.S. policies, leading to a reduction in semiconductor trade with China.

2022 年 RCEP 实施后，日本和韩国与中国的贸易出现了差异，尤其是在半导体方面。日本对华出口下降，而韩国对华出口增长。本研究采用定性和定量方法来解释 RCEP 后的半导体贸易差异，重点关注价值链互补性、新关税税率和美国因素。研究得出三个结论1）在全球价值链中，与中国相比，日本和韩国在半导体行业的地位不同，导致日本与中国、韩国与中国之间的市场互补性程度不同；尤其是韩国，其潜在市场明显更高。2) 在 RCEP 框架下降低关税壁垒方面，与日本相比，韩国在中国市场的半导体关税税率下降幅度更大。3) 2022 年美国对中国半导体实施的非关税壁垒制裁影响了日本和韩国的贸易选择。日本更忠于美国，倾向于与美国政策保持一致，导致与中国的半导体贸易减少。

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全部 ACS Publications Elsevier ieeexplore Springer The Royal Society of Chemistry Wiley

期刊

Asia and the Global Economy

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