首页 > 最新文献

Asia and the Global Economy最新文献

英文 中文
Does automation really reduce jobs? 自动化真的会减少工作岗位吗?
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100099
Zheng Fang , Soon Hock Kang , Sandra Myo Han May
Using panel data from 63 countries in 2005–2021 and the generalised method of moments, this paper examines the impact of industrial robot utilisation on employment. Results show a 1 % increase in new industrial robot installations per 10,000 workers reduces the unemployment rate by 0.037 %-0.039 %. The impact is more pronounced for male workers (0.045 %) than female workers (0.033 %), and youth unemployment is more significantly affected. Lastly, automation is found to reduce the unemployment rate by 0.052 % for people with intermediate education, yet with little effect on those with basic or advanced educational attainment.
本文利用 2005-2021 年 63 个国家的面板数据和广义矩方法,研究了工业机器人的使用对就业的影响。结果显示,每 10,000 名工人新安装的工业机器人每增加 1%,失业率就会降低 0.037%-0.039%。对男性工人的影响(0.045 %)比对女性工人的影响(0.033 %)更明显,对青年失业率的影响也更大。最后,研究发现,自动化可使中等教育水平人群的失业率降低 0.052%,但对基础教育或高等教育水平人群的影响甚微。
{"title":"Does automation really reduce jobs?","authors":"Zheng Fang ,&nbsp;Soon Hock Kang ,&nbsp;Sandra Myo Han May","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100099","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100099","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Using panel data from 63 countries in 2005–2021 and the generalised method of moments, this paper examines the impact of industrial robot utilisation on employment. Results show a 1 % increase in new industrial robot installations per 10,000 workers reduces the unemployment rate by 0.037 %-0.039 %. The impact is more pronounced for male workers (0.045 %) than female workers (0.033 %), and youth unemployment is more significantly affected. Lastly, automation is found to reduce the unemployment rate by 0.052 % for people with intermediate education, yet with little effect on those with basic or advanced educational attainment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100099"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142704994","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The Marshall-Lerner Condition: Stability of an Equilibrium or a System? 马歇尔-勒纳条件:平衡的稳定性还是系统的稳定性?
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100091
Hiroya Akiba
This article examines the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition from a broader perspective. Mundell (1968) regarded ML as the stability condition of the equilibrium, but not of the system. The violation of the ML condition by Japan's estimates is interpreted as a possible symptom of a negative exchange rate depreciation spiral in Thorbecke (2022). By constructing an open-economy macroeconomic model with three endogenous variables in three markets, and solving the model for the exchange rate, we examined the model's stability. Stability depends not only on the ML condition, but also on the configuration of the model's parameters. This implies that the ML condition alone is not responsible for the stability/instability of the model. Using the ML parameter estimated by Thorbecke (2022) and previously obtained money market parameters for the Japanese economy, we found that a simple model satisfies the necessary and sufficient conditions for stability. However, for an extended model, some cases fail to satisfy stability conditions. We further investigate the possible cause of this failure, and suggest that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unconventional monetary policies implemented after the economic bubble burst may be responsible.
本文从一个更广阔的角度来考察Marshall-Lerner (ML)条件。Mundell(1968)认为ML是平衡的稳定条件,而不是系统的稳定条件。Thorbecke(2022)将日本的估计违反ML条件解释为汇率负贬值螺旋的可能症状。通过构建三个市场中具有三个内生变量的开放经济宏观经济模型,并对汇率模型进行求解,检验模型的稳定性。稳定性不仅取决于机器学习条件,还取决于模型参数的配置。这意味着ML条件本身不负责模型的稳定性/不稳定性。使用Thorbecke(2022)估计的ML参数和之前获得的日本经济货币市场参数,我们发现一个简单的模型满足稳定性的充分必要条件。然而,对于扩展模型,有些情况下不满足稳定性条件。我们进一步调查了这种失败的可能原因,并认为日本央行(BOJ)在经济泡沫破裂后实施的非常规货币政策可能是罪魁祸首。
{"title":"The Marshall-Lerner Condition: Stability of an Equilibrium or a System?","authors":"Hiroya Akiba","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100091","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100091","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This article examines the Marshall-Lerner (ML) condition from a broader perspective. Mundell (1968) regarded ML as the stability condition of the equilibrium, but not of the system. The violation of the ML condition by Japan's estimates is interpreted as a possible symptom of a negative exchange rate depreciation spiral in Thorbecke (2022). By constructing an open-economy macroeconomic model with three endogenous variables in three markets, and solving the model for the exchange rate, we examined the model's stability. Stability depends not only on the ML condition, but also on the configuration of the model's parameters. This implies that the ML condition alone is not responsible for the stability/instability of the model. Using the ML parameter estimated by Thorbecke (2022) and previously obtained money market parameters for the Japanese economy, we found that a simple model satisfies the necessary and sufficient conditions for stability. However, for an extended model, some cases fail to satisfy stability conditions. We further investigate the possible cause of this failure, and suggest that the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) unconventional monetary policies implemented after the economic bubble burst may be responsible.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100091"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142759407","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Cooperation or conflict in northeast Asia? - An approach of NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index) 东北亚的合作还是冲突?- 东北亚区域合作指数(NARCI)的研究方法
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100089
Jiyoung Moon , Jehoon Park , Sunghoon Park
In order to measure the current status of Northeast Asian regional cooperation, more specifically in order to comprehensively evaluate whether the region is in a state of cooperation or conflict, this paper adopts a revised and improved combination of approaches used in three existing publications. The Northeast Asia Cooperation Index (NARCI) illustrates the strained situation in Northeast Asia as expected. Looking at the total score, it is -0.25 and -0.425 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is in a state of conflict rather than cooperation and is getting worse. In particular, the political and security situation is at its worst and the economy is also depressed. Regional trade, investment and energy cooperation are all deteriorating. However, some indicators point to the obvious contrast between cooperation and conflict in Northeast Asia giving unexpected dynamism. It should be emphasized that the regional value chain remains robust, even amid the conflict between the US and China.
为了衡量东北亚区域合作的现状,更具体地说,为了全面评估该地区是处于合作状态还是冲突状态,本文对现有三份出版物中使用的方法进行了修订和改进。东北亚合作指数(NARCI)如期显示了东北亚地区的紧张局势。从总分来看,2022 年和 2023 年的东北亚合作指数分别为-0.25 和-0.425,表明东北亚地区合作处于冲突而非合作的状态,并有恶化的趋势。尤其是政治和安全形势最差,经济也不景气。地区贸易、投资和能源合作都在恶化。然而,一些指标表明,东北亚地区合作与冲突之间的明显反差带来了意想不到的活力。需要强调的是,即使在中美冲突的情况下,地区价值链依然强劲。
{"title":"Cooperation or conflict in northeast Asia? - An approach of NARCI (Northeast Asia Regional Cooperation Index)","authors":"Jiyoung Moon ,&nbsp;Jehoon Park ,&nbsp;Sunghoon Park","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100089","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100089","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>In order to measure the current status of Northeast Asian regional cooperation, more specifically in order to comprehensively evaluate whether the region is in a state of cooperation or conflict, this paper adopts a revised and improved combination of approaches used in three existing publications. The Northeast Asia Cooperation Index (NARCI) illustrates the strained situation in Northeast Asia as expected. Looking at the total score, it is -0.25 and -0.425 in 2022 and 2023, respectively, indicating that Northeast Asian regional cooperation is in a state of conflict rather than cooperation and is getting worse. In particular, the political and security situation is at its worst and the economy is also depressed. Regional trade, investment and energy cooperation are all deteriorating. However, some indicators point to the obvious contrast between cooperation and conflict in Northeast Asia giving unexpected dynamism. It should be emphasized that the regional value chain remains robust, even amid the conflict between the US and China.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100089"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142704996","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The impact of economic policy uncertainty on agricultural prices: Evidence from China 经济政策不确定性对农产品价格的影响:来自中国的证据
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100100
Li Hao, Lee Ki-Seong
This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in agriculture and their effects on the economy. According to the traditional supply and demand theory, prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, agricultural product prices rise, increasing consumers’ cost of living. It potentially causes panic among public and endangers social stability. Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, farmers are forced to lower prices to promote sales, which jeopardizes their income. It may pose threat to consumers’ food safety. Therefore, the stable development of agriculture is of paramount importance in maintaining the country’s economic and social stability. This study examines the transmission mechanism and time-varying impact of economic policy uncertainty on the price volatility of different kinds of agricultural products, using the TVP-VAR model, based on the economic policy uncertainty index and agricultural product price data.
本研究旨在分析农业波动及其对经济的影响。根据传统的供求理论,价格是由供求关系决定的。当供不应求时,农产品价格上涨,增加了消费者的生活成本。它可能引起公众恐慌,危及社会稳定。相反,当供过于求时,农民被迫降低价格以促进销售,这损害了他们的收入。可能对消费者的食品安全构成威胁。因此,农业的稳定发展对维护国家经济社会稳定至关重要。本文基于经济政策不确定性指数和农产品价格数据,运用tpv -var模型,考察了经济政策不确定性对不同农产品价格波动的传导机制和时变影响。
{"title":"The impact of economic policy uncertainty on agricultural prices: Evidence from China","authors":"Li Hao,&nbsp;Lee Ki-Seong","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100100","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100100","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in agriculture and their effects on the economy. According to the traditional supply and demand theory, prices are determined by the relationship between supply and demand. When demand exceeds supply, agricultural product prices rise, increasing consumers’ cost of living. It potentially causes panic among public and endangers social stability. Conversely, when supply exceeds demand, farmers are forced to lower prices to promote sales, which jeopardizes their income. It may pose threat to consumers’ food safety. Therefore, the stable development of agriculture is of paramount importance in maintaining the country’s economic and social stability. This study examines the transmission mechanism and time-varying impact of economic policy uncertainty on the price volatility of different kinds of agricultural products, using the TVP-VAR model, based on the economic policy uncertainty index and agricultural product price data.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"143151039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Trade liberalization and export performance in China: Export-margin approach with firm-level data in 1995–2019 贸易自由化与中国的出口绩效:利用1995-2019年企业层面数据的出口利润率方法
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100094
Hui-Zheng Liu , Shi-Long Li , Kevin H. Zhang
A key challenge facing developing countries is how to promote export performance through trade liberalization (TL). Using large and highly disaggregate firm-level data with 6-digit HS categories for 1995–2019, we investigate the issue for China based on the recent literature of export margins (XM). Export growth is decomposed into extensive and intensive margins (EM and IM), and IM further into price and quantity margins (PM and QM). We develop three empirical hypotheses based on a theoretical model that includes external economies of scale (EES) and industrial agglomeration (IA) as well as TL-XM links. Then we take China's entry to World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment in difference-in-difference (DID) regressions. The estimate results suggest that TL increases both EM and IM (and QM) but reduces PM after China's entry to TWO in 2001. The finding is robust to various specifications of the empirical model and measurements of the variables. The further estimations show significantly positive effects of EES, IA, and their interactive terms with TL on EM, IM, and QM. The positive effects are larger for medium-tech industries than low-tech and high-tech industries.
发展中国家面临的一个关键挑战是如何通过贸易自由化(TL)促进出口绩效。利用 1995-2019 年 6 位数 HS 分类的大量高分类公司级数据,我们以最近的出口利润率(XM)文献为基础,对中国的这一问题进行了研究。出口增长被分解为广义边际和密集边际(EM 和 IM),而密集边际又被进一步分解为价格边际和数量边际(PM 和 QM)。我们根据包含外部规模经济(EES)和产业集聚(IA)以及 TL-XM 联系的理论模型提出了三个经验假设。然后,我们以 2001 年中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)为准自然实验,进行差分(DID)回归。估计结果表明,2001 年中国加入 TWO 后,TL 增加了 EM 和 IM(以及 QM),但减少了 PM。这一结论在不同的实证模型规格和变量测量中都是稳健的。进一步的估计结果显示,EES、IA 及其与 TL 的交互项对 EM、IM 和 QM 有明显的正效应。中等技术产业的正效应大于低技术产业和高技术产业。
{"title":"Trade liberalization and export performance in China: Export-margin approach with firm-level data in 1995–2019","authors":"Hui-Zheng Liu ,&nbsp;Shi-Long Li ,&nbsp;Kevin H. Zhang","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100094","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100094","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A key challenge facing developing countries is how to promote export performance through trade liberalization (TL). Using large and highly disaggregate firm-level data with 6-digit HS categories for 1995–2019, we investigate the issue for China based on the recent literature of export margins (XM). Export growth is decomposed into extensive and intensive margins (EM and IM), and IM further into price and quantity margins (PM and QM). We develop three empirical hypotheses based on a theoretical model that includes external economies of scale (EES) and industrial agglomeration (IA) as well as TL-XM links. Then we take China's entry to World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001 as a quasi-natural experiment in difference-in-difference (DID) regressions. The estimate results suggest that TL increases both EM and IM (and QM) but reduces PM after China's entry to TWO in 2001. The finding is robust to various specifications of the empirical model and measurements of the variables. The further estimations show significantly positive effects of EES, IA, and their interactive terms with TL on EM, IM, and QM. The positive effects are larger for medium-tech industries than low-tech and high-tech industries.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100094"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142704992","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
How oil prices impact the Taiwanese economy: Evidence from the stock market 石油价格如何影响台湾经济?来自股市的证据
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100086
Willem Thorbecke
Oil prices are volatile. How do oil prices affect Taiwanese industries? This paper investigates how oil price increases driven by shocks to global aggregate demand and to oil supply affect Taiwanese sectoral stock returns. It uses Hamilton's (2014) approach to divide oil price changes into portions driven by demand and supply factors. The results indicate that the semiconductor sector and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are harmed by oil price increases. Since oil prices are often high and quick to change, these findings imply that TSMC should expedite its goal of switching from depending on fossil fuels to utilizing renewable energy.
石油价格起伏不定。油价对台湾产业有何影响?本文研究了全球总需求和石油供应冲击导致的油价上涨如何影响台湾行业股票回报。本文采用 Hamilton(2014)的方法,将油价变化分为需求和供应因素驱动的两部分。结果表明,半导体行业和台湾半导体制造公司(TSMC)受到油价上涨的损害。由于油价经常居高不下且变化迅速,这些发现意味着台积电应加快实现从依赖化石燃料转向利用可再生能源的目标。
{"title":"How oil prices impact the Taiwanese economy: Evidence from the stock market","authors":"Willem Thorbecke","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100086","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100086","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Oil prices are volatile. How do oil prices affect Taiwanese industries? This paper investigates how oil price increases driven by shocks to global aggregate demand and to oil supply affect Taiwanese sectoral stock returns. It uses Hamilton's (2014) approach to divide oil price changes into portions driven by demand and supply factors. The results indicate that the semiconductor sector and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) are harmed by oil price increases. Since oil prices are often high and quick to change, these findings imply that TSMC should expedite its goal of switching from depending on fossil fuels to utilizing renewable energy.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100086"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142571568","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
The fourth industrial revolution: Implications for the global economy and for the strategic competition between the United States and China 第四次工业革命:对全球经济和中美战略竞争的影响
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100097
Josef C. Brada , Jehoon Park
During the First Industrial Revolution, industrialization led to incompatibilities between the economic sphere and a political sphere based on rule by monarchs and land-owning nobles. These incompatibilities led to poor economic outcomes for workers and, ultimately, to deep changes in the political system. In the Second and Third Industrial Revolutions, compatibility emerged between new technologies and political systems based on representative democracy, leading to favorable outcomes. The changes in technology brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution may lead to a growing incompatibility between the productive and political spheres, marked by polarization and conflict both within and among counties. A key aspect of this conflict is the rivalry between the United States and China. We evaluate the strengths of the respective countries and analyze which of them is likely to win the competition for dominance during the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
在第一次工业革命期间,工业化导致了经济领域与基于君主和拥有土地的贵族统治的政治领域之间的不相容。这些不相容导致工人的经济状况不佳,并最终导致政治体系发生深刻变化。在第二次和第三次工业革命中,新技术与以代议制民主为基础的政治制度之间出现了兼容性,导致了有利的结果。第四次工业革命带来的技术变革可能导致生产领域和政治领域之间日益不相容,其特征是国家内部和国家之间的两极分化和冲突。这场冲突的一个关键方面是美国和中国之间的竞争。我们评估了各自国家的优势,并分析了哪些国家有可能在第四次工业革命中赢得主导地位的竞争。
{"title":"The fourth industrial revolution: Implications for the global economy and for the strategic competition between the United States and China","authors":"Josef C. Brada ,&nbsp;Jehoon Park","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100097","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100097","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>During the First Industrial Revolution, industrialization led to incompatibilities between the economic sphere and a political sphere based on rule by monarchs and land-owning nobles. These incompatibilities led to poor economic outcomes for workers and, ultimately, to deep changes in the political system. In the Second and Third Industrial Revolutions, compatibility emerged between new technologies and political systems based on representative democracy, leading to favorable outcomes. The changes in technology brought by the Fourth Industrial Revolution may lead to a growing incompatibility between the productive and political spheres, marked by polarization and conflict both within and among counties. A key aspect of this conflict is the rivalry between the United States and China. We evaluate the strengths of the respective countries and analyze which of them is likely to win the competition for dominance during the Fourth Industrial Revolution.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100097"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142748638","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Economic growth and foreign direct investment in Asia: When investors imperfectly fulfil approved investment plans 亚洲的经济增长和外国直接投资:当投资者不完全履行已批准的投资计划时
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100093
Abigail S. Hornstein
Foreign direct investment (FDI) may represent an expansion in the domestic capital supply, which could thus increase GDP growth through the investment and consumption sectors and generate productivity increases. We examine this hypothesis by looking earlier in the investment process and use little-known data on FDI approvals from ten Asian countries that have routinely required advance approval of FDI and have also disclosed this data. We show that the approved FDI predicts actual FDI inflows, and that on average more FDI is approved than realized. The approved FDI is used to create an FDI commitment ratio and gap, which are thus absolute and relative measures of how FDI pledges are fulfilled. We then examine how the host economy is affected by the FDI commitment ratio and gap using an Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimator to examine an unbalanced dataset spanning 1967–2022. We find GDP growth forecasts are significantly affected by both FDI measures. However, actual GDP growth is affected negatively by the FDI gap, with the effects strongest at the 3-year horizon. Thus, we show that FDI initially displaces domestic capital before expanding the domestic capital supply.
外国直接投资(FDI)可能代表着国内资本供应的扩大,从而通过投资和消费部门提高国内生产总值的增长,并带来生产率的提高。我们通过研究投资过程的早期阶段来检验这一假设,并使用了鲜为人知的外国直接投资审批数据,这些数据来自十个亚洲国家,这些国家通常要求外国直接投资的提前审批,并披露了这些数据。我们的研究表明,批准的外国直接投资可以预测实际的外国直接投资流入量,而且平均而言,批准的外国直接投资多于实际的外国直接投资。批准的外国直接投资被用来创建外国直接投资承诺比率和差距,从而绝对和相对地衡量外国直接投资承诺的履行情况。然后,我们使用 Arellano-Bond 动态面板估算器,对 1967-2022 年间的非平衡数据集进行研究,考察东道国经济如何受到外国直接投资承诺比率和缺口的影响。我们发现,GDP 增长预测受到这两种外国直接投资措施的显著影响。然而,实际 GDP 增长受到外国直接投资缺口的负面影响,3 年期的影响最大。因此,我们表明,外国直接投资在扩大国内资本供应之前,最初会取代国内资本。
{"title":"Economic growth and foreign direct investment in Asia: When investors imperfectly fulfil approved investment plans","authors":"Abigail S. Hornstein","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100093","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100093","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>Foreign direct investment (FDI) may represent an expansion in the domestic capital supply, which could thus increase GDP growth through the investment and consumption sectors and generate productivity increases. We examine this hypothesis by looking earlier in the investment process and use little-known data on FDI approvals from ten Asian countries that have routinely required advance approval of FDI and have also disclosed this data. We show that the approved FDI predicts actual FDI inflows, and that on average more FDI is approved than realized. The approved FDI is used to create an FDI commitment ratio and gap, which are thus absolute and relative measures of how FDI pledges are fulfilled. We then examine how the host economy is affected by the FDI commitment ratio and gap using an Arellano-Bond dynamic panel estimator to examine an unbalanced dataset spanning 1967–2022. We find GDP growth forecasts are significantly affected by both FDI measures. However, actual GDP growth is affected negatively by the FDI gap, with the effects strongest at the 3-year horizon. Thus, we show that FDI initially displaces domestic capital before expanding the domestic capital supply.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100093"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142704993","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Profiling the perceived resilience of young farmers in Japanese agriculture 剖析日本农业中青年农民的抗风险能力
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100092
Yuna Seo, Naoto Shirasawa
The importance of younger farmers is increasing as Japan's agricultural sector faces a declining labor force. This study assessed young farmers' perceptions and resilience in response to agricultural changes and risks, using four criteria: robustness, adaptability, transformability, and cooperativeness. Farmers were categorized into two resilience profiles: high and low. High-resilience farmers displayed strong agricultural training, mathematical skills, and a positive approach to future challenges, managing farm functions efficiently. Conversely, the low-resilience group had limited training, lower mathematical abilities, and struggled with challenges, expressing concerns about economic issues and uncertainty. Recommendations for strengthening resilience include enhancing agricultural education, promoting rural life, and fostering innovative farming. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to build a resilient, sustainable agricultural sector in Japan.
随着日本农业部门面临劳动力减少的问题,年轻农民的重要性与日俱增。本研究以稳健性、适应性、可转变性和合作性这四个标准来评估年轻农民对农业变化和风险的看法和应变能力。农民被分为两种抗灾能力:高抗灾能力和低抗灾能力。抗灾能力强的农民受过良好的农业培训,掌握数学技能,能积极应对未来的挑战,有效地管理农场功能。与此相反,低抗逆能力组的培训有限,数学能力较低,在挑战面前举步维艰,对经济问题和不确定性表示担忧。加强抗灾能力的建议包括加强农业教育、促进农村生活和培育创新型农业。这些见解为决策者提供了宝贵的指导,有助于他们在日本建立一个具有抗灾能力、可持续发展的农业部门。
{"title":"Profiling the perceived resilience of young farmers in Japanese agriculture","authors":"Yuna Seo,&nbsp;Naoto Shirasawa","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100092","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100092","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The importance of younger farmers is increasing as Japan's agricultural sector faces a declining labor force. This study assessed young farmers' perceptions and resilience in response to agricultural changes and risks, using four criteria: robustness, adaptability, transformability, and cooperativeness. Farmers were categorized into two resilience profiles: high and low. High-resilience farmers displayed strong agricultural training, mathematical skills, and a positive approach to future challenges, managing farm functions efficiently. Conversely, the low-resilience group had limited training, lower mathematical abilities, and struggled with challenges, expressing concerns about economic issues and uncertainty. Recommendations for strengthening resilience include enhancing agricultural education, promoting rural life, and fostering innovative farming. These insights offer valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to build a resilient, sustainable agricultural sector in Japan.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100092"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142655428","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Local corruption and corporate investment in an emerging market 新兴市场的地方腐败与企业投资
Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100087
Thi Mai Nguyen, Quoc Trung Tran, Thi Thuy Trang Truong
This paper examines how local corruption determines corporate investment in Vietnam where local corruption is more relevant to firms’ business activities than central corruption. We use the informal payment score extracted from the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) database as a proxy of local corruption. With a sample of 5,852 observations from firms listed in Vietnam, we find that local corruption increases investment expenditure through decreasing underinvestment and increasing overinvestment.
在越南,地方腐败比中央腐败更影响企业的商业活动,本文研究了地方腐败如何决定企业投资。我们使用从越南省级竞争力指数(PCI)数据库中提取的非正式支付得分作为地方腐败的替代指标。通过对越南上市企业的 5,852 个样本观察,我们发现地方腐败会通过减少投资不足和增加过度投资来增加投资支出。
{"title":"Local corruption and corporate investment in an emerging market","authors":"Thi Mai Nguyen,&nbsp;Quoc Trung Tran,&nbsp;Thi Thuy Trang Truong","doi":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100087","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.aglobe.2024.100087","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>This paper examines how local corruption determines corporate investment in Vietnam where local corruption is more relevant to firms’ business activities than central corruption. We use the informal payment score extracted from the Vietnam Provincial Competitiveness Index (PCI) database as a proxy of local corruption. With a sample of 5,852 observations from firms listed in Vietnam, we find that local corruption increases investment expenditure through decreasing underinvestment and increasing overinvestment.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":100126,"journal":{"name":"Asia and the Global Economy","volume":"4 2","pages":"Article 100087"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"142593600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Asia and the Global Economy
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:604180095
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1