FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

This paper introduces a simple and reproducible method to modify model forecasts using expert forecasts which is useful in crisis times. The idea is to add the expert forecast as an additional observation of the dependent variable, and to extend the model with an additional explanatory variable such as the square of a deterministic trend. Next, the new model forecast is combined with the expert forecast using equal weights. We show that it works well for gross domestic product growth forecasts for 2020 for 12 countries and that it improves upon an equal-weighted combination of the original model forecast and expert forecast.

We adopted an innovative methodology that combines systems thinking with “imaginary future generations” (IFGs), a method for activating “futurability” in people, to discussions about the issues and needs of a future society, and we verified the effectiveness and value of this methodology. We conducted a series of five debate experiments in which groups comprised of company employees and university students worked to formulate a vision of the future state, social issues, and social needs of society in 2050, and to investigate policies that should be adopted in the years ahead. The results of a text analysis of group debates and questionnaire surveys of debate participants showed that (1) adopting IFGs facilitates the exploration of new issues and needs when depicting the images of the future state of society; (2) adopting IFGs gives rise to recognized cognitive changes in debate participants; and (3) combining the IFG methodology with causal loop diagrams (CLDs), a systems thinking tool, makes it possible to generate the effects of systems thinking while simultaneously maintaining a “future generation” perspective. Most importantly, the results show that the IFG methodology and CLDs could be compatible. These findings demonstrate that a combination of IFGs and systems thinking can effectively be used in discussions and decision-making that deal with complex issues related to the future of society.

This paper discusses temporalities in futures research in terms of a novel notion of time-need. It is argued that this notion contributes to the theoretical and critical discussion about time in futures research. The paper uses as an illustrative case study a railway transportation system to highlight how different actors within a system have unique temporal needs that shape their perceptions, actions, and relation to the future. The authors discuss the interplay of power, control, utilization, and the strategic manipulation of temporal information. This paper argues for a novel conceptual approach to temporal phenomena that can be used to (i) understand and plan a technological system better, but also (ii) provide critical reflection on the power and control implicit in such systems. Moreover, the paper suggests that futures research as a field has its own time-needs that shape how it approaches the future. Recognizing these time-needs enables a more nuanced understanding of futures research. Scenarios, knowledge, and power are all intimately related to time.

A review of scoring rules highlights the distinction between rewarding honesty and rewarding quality. This motivates the introduction of a scale-invariant version of the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) which enables statistical accuracy (SA) testing based on an exact rather than an asymptotic distribution of the density of convolutions. A recent data set of 6761 expert probabilistic forecasts for questions for which the actual values are known is used to compare performance. New insights include that (a) variance due to assessed variables dominates variance due to experts, (b) performance on mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is weakly related to SA (c) scale-invariant CRPS combinations compete with the Classical Model (CM) on SA and MAPE, and (d) CRPS is more forgiving with regard to SA than the CM as CRPS is insensitive to location bias.

Internet technologies have empowered commentators to participate in information production. This phenomenon has been studied as citizen journalism and media convergence. However, one perspective has remained underdeveloped: commentators are empowered as prosumers who are neither consumers nor producers. Commentators prosume comments for themselves and their communities rather than for sale. Therefore, in terms of Toffler, prosumers can raise the Sector A economy, which is typical of agricultural society, and which is overshadowed by the market or the Sector B economy in industrial society. This article highlights prosumers' freedom to post lawful comments and the implications for this freedom coming from moderation standards imposed in the EU by the European Court of Human Rights and the Digital Services Act. The analysis led to the construction of three models of information production/prosumption and the anticipatin of their futures. The article concludes by suggesting how prosumers' freedom to post lawful comments and moderators' control over comments prosumption can be balanced better from a legal perspective.

Organizational and political responses to strategic surprises such as the credit crunch in 2008 and the pandemic in 2020 are increasingly reliant on scientific insights. As a result, the accuracy of scientific models has become more critical, and models have become more complex to capture the real-world phenomena as best as they can. So much, so that appeals for simplification are beginning to surface. But unfortunately, simplification has its issues. Too simple models are so generic that they no longer accurately describe or predict real-world cause-effect relationships. On the other hand, too complex models are hard to generalize. Somewhere on the continuum between too simple and too complex lies the optimal model. In this article, the authors contribute to the ongoing discussion on model complexity by presenting a logical and systematic framework of simplification issues that may occur during the conceptualization and operationalization of variables, relationships, and model contexts. The framework was developed with the help of two cases, one from foresight, a relatively young discipline, and the other from the established discipline of innovation diffusion. Both disciplines have a widely accepted foundational predictive model that could use another look. The shared errors informed the simplification framework. The framework can help social scientists to detect possible oversimplification issues in literature reviews and inform their choices for either in- or decreases in model complexity.

In this paper, we introduce the notion of a microperspective to futures research. Contrary to the more traditional timespans of futures research that are measured in years or decades, a microperspective focuses on shorter timespans that can be measured even in minutes. We point out that the use of a microperspective can provide an understanding of the central issues of futures research from a new angle. These issues involve the difficulties in estimating the future, the entanglement of the future with accounts of it, and the (in)ability to relate to certain futures. We argue that a microperspective can provide an understanding of how patterns shaping the future are created, how people respond to patterns, and how conflicts and misunderstandings shape the future. As an illustrative case, we discuss how the workings of elevators and the development of predictive algorithms in Kone corporation shape the future moment-by-moment in an interaction between the users and the developers. A microperspective shows how the different temporal orientations of the actors and their different interpretations of the environment interact. The case indicates that a microperspective can provide a novel way to study some of the central issues in futures research. The case also indicates that the notion of a microperspective is not merely an academic concept but has practical utility in planning and creating the future.

This article focuses on using science fiction for military purposes to anticipate the future of warfare and presents a new tool for creating military science fiction. As technology is a significant driver in the future of warfare, science fiction has increased its popularity for military purposes. Armies and defense organizations have begun utilizing science fiction to anticipate and prepare for future wars. Examples can be found in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Australia, and NATO. Even though military sci-fi is on the rise, there is a lack of a more profound analysis of the sci-fi narratives of the military and its foundations. Allied Command Transformation's, (NATO's Strategic Warfare Development Command) report called Visions of Warfare 2036 (2016) exhibits an example of military-based science fiction employed to anticipate and get prepared for the future of warfare. It includes 12 narratives of the future of warfare varying from gene-manipulated soldiers to AI-generated warfare. By analyzing the report qualitatively using the Atlas.ti program and manual methods, the basic elements of the stories were identified. One of the findings of the analysis was that the stories were somewhat similar to each other. To create more diverse military science fiction scenarios, a new tool: the Military Science Fiction Scenario Card was created. This tool can be used in practical work when thinking about the war of the future and in particular the role of technology in it. It can also be seen as a new tool in the field of futures research.

As a multidisciplinary field, futures research borrows approaches from different disciplines. However, it often ignores the potential of the arts on a large scale, even though the arts embrace creativity and often depict and narrate imagined futures. This article applies a case study approach to review and categorize selected arts-based approaches and assess their potential—strengths and limitations—for futures workshops in higher arts education context. The approaches were tried extensively in Art School Futures Labs (15 test labs and 12 actual labs) and a summer school in eight European countries. Three case examples are scrutinized in more detail to illuminate their use in the cocreation of futures images. One artistic futures image is discussed within the frameworks of Wittgensteinian aspect perception and intertextuality, highlighting the importance of interpretation in unpacking the complex meanings that artistic futures images convey. Finally, some recommendations are given to support the successful use of arts-based approaches in futures workshops.