FUTURES & FORESIGHT SCIENCE最新文献

How can we facilitate collective sensemaking and reframing processes to foster futures thinking? This paper explores the use of Responsible Futuring, a design-oriented approach, in a learning trajectory for professionals facing complex digital transformations in their organizations. Responsible Futuring supports collective sensemaking and reframing processes across four cognitive and experiential levels: (1) understanding values, (2) imagining, (3) tangibilizing, and (4) introspecting. While the trajectory enabled participants to incorporate diverse perspectives and embrace long-term thinking, our findings revealed a tendency towards solutionism, where participants prematurely focused on specific solutions rather than exploring broader, values-driven futures. In response, we propose four critical areas of attention, including (1) iterative guidance to redirect focus towards broader perspectives, (2) zooming processes to mitigate risks of actor and stakeholder inclusion/exclusion, (3) clearly defined goals in speculative activities to align with learning objectives, and (4) grounding speculative futures in everyday realities to enhance relevance. By addressing these areas, we offer insights for researchers and practitioners aiming to integrate futures-oriented activities into lifelong learning trajectories for communities navigating complex transformations.

Horizon scanning (HS) is a method for the identification of emerging change through systematic analysis of trusted sources using a defined scope and prespecified methods. In health research, it can provide early awareness of potential developments ahead of market access. Within the medicines space, HS is supported by international requirements for clinical trial registration, conduct and reporting, and by transparent regulatory processes. Potential changes can be identified at different stages of development, emerging, transitional, and imminent to launch. This paper delineates a comprehensive methodological approach for medicines HS within the transitional horizon from a national HS center, the National Institute for Health and Care Research Innovation Observatory (IO) in the United Kingdom. The UK single-payer healthcare system supports access to medicines approved by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE); the assessment process for this requires an early awareness program ahead of regulatory approval. We report an expansive step-by-step HS process at the IO that has been tailored to meet stakeholder requirements. Manual and automated methods are used in tandem to extract and sift data from clinical trial registries, industry databases and medical databases. Intensive industry engagement and news media sources are used to supplement data collection. Data are sifted and triangulated to populate an internal database. Records are monitored to allow tracking of technologies through the pipeline and to trigger our notification processes. This HS program is a potential model for other agencies wishing to establish such an early awareness program internationally.

This study explores the future of cybersecurity governance in Spain by 2035, focusing on the roles of public and private actors. Using a two-round Delphi method, we collected insights from experts to evaluate the probability, desirability, and impact of 20 projections for Spain's cybersecurity landscape. The findings suggest a consolidation of multi-stakeholder forms of governance, with public agencies like INCIBE and CCN guiding policy and oversight while private entities deliver essential services. Experts foresee continued collaboration between national and EU institutions, with the EU playing a key role in regulatory coordination. Three governance scenarios emerged: public-centric cybersecurity governance, state-driven cybersecurity assurance, and private monopolistic provision. These scenarios underscore a complex multistakeholder model shaped by collaboration and tension between public and private actors, particularly in light of fragmented ownership over cyberspace resources. This study highlights the need for adaptable governance frameworks that balance regulatory oversight with private sector efficiency, providing insights for stakeholders as they prepare for evolving cyber threats.

The world is on a trajectory to exceed the 1.5-degree target set by the Paris Agreement. As the effects of climate change become increasingly evident, there is a pressing need to fundamentally transform our societies towards just and sustainable futures. This paper presents a practical methodology for guiding collaborative transformation processes towards sustainability. Our aim is to contribute to the development of tools that combine insights from foresight with theories from the sustainability transitions literature, specifically scenario planning and multi-level perspective (MLP) approaches. Foresight and sustainability transitions both aim to understand long-term trends shaping production and consumption systems and guide transitions to more desirable socio-technical regimes. However, few scholars have examined overlaps between the fields and explored the potential for practical integration in workshop settings. The MLP can benefit from scenario planning by incorporating directionality and pluralism of futures in transition processes, while the MLP provides a structure for understanding system dynamics and socio-technical change to scenario planning. In this paper, we share our experiences using an integrated MLP-scenario planning framework in a workshop setting where actors from the Swedish food system explored prospective transitions. Using backcasting and pre-mortem related to regime dimensions from the MLP, participants built a common understanding of events, barriers and pathways associated with four normative scenarios of sustainable food systems. Our results show that the MLP and scenario planning can be integrated and implemented on a practical level to facilitate dialogues on current regime lock-ins and thereby pave the way for transformative change.

In democratic countries, citizens are informed about economic policies, health systems, and public education, as well as the policy actions addressing these areas. However, the public often only notices security and defense policies when they are lacking. Security and defense foresight exercises are typically seen as the domain of military personnel, technology experts, and politicians, due to their experience with strategic assets and classified information. Although citizens are represented by elected politicians, security and defense issues frequently remain in the political background, overshadowed by more immediate concerns like energy availability and pricing. To increase meaningful citizen participation in security and defense issues, a well-informed citizenry is essential. This requires knowledge of threats, civil rights, technological developments, and international affairs. The multidisciplinary nature of these topics makes selecting suitable participants for foresight exercises complex. While informed citizens can contribute to discussions on future developments and threats, such as artificial intelligence, fake news, and electoral processes, the question remains: how can citizens participate in security and defense foresight exercises? This study, based on the Spanish case, reveals that experts agree on the need for greater citizen participation in defense and security politics. However, they did not offer specific ideas or suggestions for achieving this. Consequently, a review of participatory foresight instruments was conducted, resulting in a proposed workflow for future exercises and recommendations for practice.