Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards最新文献

Flood management policies in the United States rely on scientific information about the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation and runoff. Yet, the available information is inherently uncertain because of the complexity of meteorological and hydrological processes. In mountainous areas, flood risk can vary greatly even within short distances depending on local climate, topography, soil characteristics, and land use. This paper describes two Colorado cases in which policy makers were presented with conflicting scientific estimates: revision of the Fort Collins floodplain map and modification of the Cherry Creek Dam. The case studies demonstrate that uncertainty can have substantial impacts on regulatory processes, public safety, and costs. The analysis considers the differing perspectives of various participants in the flood management processes, illustrating the interplay between uncertainties attributable to scientific issues and values issues. It suggests that attempts to provide a single “best” estimate do not necessarily meet the decision needs of all stakeholders. Conclusions indicate a need to improve communication about uncertainty when scientific estimates are provided to decision makers. Furthermore, in highly controversial decisions, it may be necessary to reframe the discussion to consider the values issues raised by scientific uncertainty.

Extremely damaging snowstorms, those causing more than $1 million in property losses across the US, were studied, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the storm activity during 1949–2001 were defined. There were 155 catastrophic snowstorms and they caused insured losses of $21.6 billion (2001 dollars). The northeastern US had the nation's maximum storm occurrences (79 storms), greatest total losses ($7.3 billion), and highest storm intensity. Two-thirds of all US losses occurred in the Northeast, Southeast, and Central climate regions, and storm occurrences and losses were least in the western US. The incidence of storms peaked during the 1976–1985 period and exhibited no up or down trend during 1949–2001. However, losses had a significant upward time trend, as did storm sizes and intensity. New York and Pennsylvania had the greatest number of storms with fewest in Montana, Idaho, and Utah. Time distribution of losses in the northeastern and southeastern US were U-shaped with flat time trends for 1949–2001. Losses in the western regions and Deep South had distinct upward trends in losses, storm intensity, and storm size. More than 90 percent of all storm losses in the western US have occurred since 1980. These findings indicate that rapidly growing population and property at risk have been major factors in increasing losses as well as atmospheric changes leading to greater storm intensity and size.

Emergency and disaster management in Australia is gradually moving towards a prevention-oriented focus that involves working with rather than on local communities. Such an approach, now frequently employed through the nationally endorsed framework of emergency risk management (ERM), involves the consideration of ‘vulnerability’ of individuals and communities. This paper focuses on emergency management in remote indigenous communities to illustrate how the conceptualisation and application of the concept of vulnerability is bound with our attitudes to, and understanding of these communities. It is argued that the uncritical application of the concept of vulnerability to indigenous communities will do little to build communities that are more resilient and better able to manage disasters and emergencies. The paper suggests that a focus on local understandings of risk, local knowledge of hazards and coping strategies is critical for the development of safer, sustainable communities. This will involve re-examining the role of emergency managers and the applicability of mainstream emergency management practices in indigenous communities. The paper concludes that emergency management must learn from critiques of dominant development strategies by accepting the value of existing capacities in indigenous communities and working towards relationships and processes that apply new strategies and ways of working.

The issue of communities and their exposure to bushfire hazard is highly topical internationally. There is a perceived trend of greater exposure to bushfire risk which is exacerbated by increased levels of building in fire-prone areas or peri-urban regions. There is a need to clarify what we understand to be peri-urban regions, and how we conceptualise and describe the communities that reside in them, in order that efficient and effective services are provided. However, more questions arise for us. For example: Where are these communities located? What do we know about the people who live there? What are the implications for bushfire mitigation? Despite being problematic, locality remains important to the understanding of communities, bushfire hazard and delivery of services.

Previous research has acknowledged the importance of mass media in shaping risk perception and as the channel through which people get information during and after disasters. There is still much more to know about the role mass media (but especially the television medium) plays in people's precautionary hazard behaviors. Close to 400 people were surveyed in the Memphis, TN television market about their knowledge and perception of the severe weather threat, and their past experiences with tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. The survey results show that respondents do develop a relationship with their local television weathercaster and also trust their weathercaster during severe weather. This relationship and trust can then predict the likelihood of taking shelter during severe weather. Ultimately, the case will be made that the findings may be useful to future hazards research in other locations.

This study examined the economic impact of the May 3, 1999 Oklahoma tornado outbreak on the labor markets of Oklahoma City (OK), Wichita (KS), and Kansas City (MO). In particular, this article examines the transmission of shocks to employment growth across these different labor markets. Using monthly employment data from January 1990 to December 2004, we provide empirical evidence on the cross-market relationships that existed before and after the Oklahoma City tornado. The results suggest that the impact of the wind event may have altered labor market dynamics in Oklahoma City, as well as Wichita and Kansas City.

In most OECD countries, emergency response to accidents and natural disasters is very dependent on a trained workforce of emergency services volunteers: fire, rescue, medical, care and relief. With its large area, sparsely settled population, and frequent periods of low rainfall, Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat posed by wildfires. There are an estimated 220,000 rural fire volunteers (in a population of 20 million) in eight state and territory volunteer rural fire services. These fire services have experienced significant decreases in volunteer numbers over the past decade, a trend which is true also of North American volunteer fire services. An investigation suggests that the decrease is driven by two related sets of factors: economic and demographic. Globalisation and deregulation of the economy, and technological innovation, have resulted in structural changes in the nature of work: privatisation, casualisation, self-employment, and demands for increased productivity. These factors make it more difficult for members of communities to volunteer, regardless of their motivation to do so. Further, like many other OECD countries, Australia's birth rate has fallen over the last three decades, resulting in a decline in the proportion of the population aged between 25 and 45 years—a trend that is unlikely to be reversed in the foreseeable future. These economic and demographic changes make it difficult for Australian volunteer rural fire agencies to meet their community protection responsibilities. Responding to these challenges may require radical changes in the way that these fire services are organised and supported.

This paper examines the current health policy response to the management of vector-borne disease (VBD), specifically Ross River (RR) virus, in subtropical coastal Australia. It demonstrates the multi-dimensional nature of the VBD problem and considers the value of more sustainable policy responses. The paper provides an integrated exploration of the incidence of RR virus in the context of socio-biophysical interactions and change, climate variability, and possible enhanced threat due to climate change. The study focuses on two subtropical coastal case study regions in Australia. Collectively, the existing and emerging socio-biophysical interactions in these regions raise questions as to the future risks and management of RR virus, while climate change adds a significant further dimension. The paper demonstrates the need for the incorporation of environmental planning elements, particularly attention to strategic assessment and planning, into the traditional suite of health policy responses given the multi-dimensional nature of the problem and evident socio-biophysical environmental change.

Australian bushfire agencies have a position that people in the path of a fire should either prepare, stay and defend their properties, or leave the area well before the fire front arrives. The position is based largely on observations that evacuating at the last minute is often fatal and that, generally, a key factor in house survival during a wildfire is the presence of people in the building. In practice, full implementation of the position has been difficult for a range of reasons.

As part of the Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre (CRC) research effort 〈www.bushfirecrc.com〉, our project is examining the evidence base for this position and aims to suggest ways of improving implementation.

We have found that the available evidence, which goes back some 60 yr, strongly supports the Australian position. The position is supported on the grounds of both improved safety and reduced property loss. The evidence also shows that the most dangerous option—and the cause of most fatalities—is last minute evacuation.

The purpose of this study was to examine completion of recommended wildland–urban interface (WUI) fire mitigation measures by residents adjacent to the heavily vegetated North Saskatchewan river valley and ravine system in the City of Edmonton, Alberta. A mail survey was distributed to a random sample of households adjacent to this natural area. Almost all homeowners were found to be completing some recommended mitigation measures and in many cases were willing to complete most but not all of the measures that they had not yet completed, despite mixed motivations to act. Perceived responsibility for reducing risks, social bonds, beliefs that emergency services would protect homeowners’ property in the event of a fire, and perceptions of the effectiveness of recommended mitigation measures, were not significantly related to completion of a higher average number of recommended mitigation measures. Importantly, most mitigation measures were completed for reasons other than WUI fire mitigation. The implications of these results and recommendations for emergency managers and communicators are discussed.