Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards最新文献

Recent studies have yielded definitive information about the nation's economic impacts from extreme climates, although some sectoral values rely on educated estimates since hard data does not exist. Review of existing measures of the national impacts from weather–climate conditions reveals annual average losses of $36 billion from extremes and gains averaging $26 billion when conditions are favorable (good growing seasons, mild winters, etc.). Comparison of these values with various measures of the national economy reveals that the impacts are relatively small, typically about 1% of the Gross Domestic Product and less than 2% of the federal budget. The current impact information provides a basis for assessing various estimates of the nation's financial impacts resulting from a future climate change due to global warming. Most such estimates predict values similar to the magnitude of current climate impacts. Moreover, most economists attempting such estimates express a large degree of uncertainty about their projections.

This study explores the preparedness of residents living in a rural community in Victoria, Australia, for wildfires, and the factors influencing their preparedness. Overall, participants were well aware of wildfire risks and appeared well prepared for the event of a fire. However, residents involved in agriculture and with a long-standing association with the area appeared better prepared than were those on small properties and newcomers. Their social networks, previous experiences with wildfires and grassfires, and involvement with the local fire brigade influenced preparedness of long-term residents. Characteristics of agricultural communities, including a culture of self-reliance, experience with fires as part of farming, and social cohesion, appeared to contribute to wildfire preparedness within this community. Included are recommendations encouraging preparedness for wildfires.

In 1999, the entire population of tourism-dependent Baños, Ecuador, some 16,000 people, was evacuated in anticipation of a violent eruption of Mount Tungurahua. Subsequently, many areas in the risk zone experienced heavy ash falls, lahars, and landslides, although no cataclysmic events occurred. Many small rural communities were also evacuated. While these communities became impacted by the hazard, Baños avoided most direct effects. Conditions for all evacuees were grim, and their conditions compounded because Ecuador was simultaneously undergoing profound economic and political crises. Absent livelihood alternatives, community leaders from Baños organized a return to their town even though it remained under an evacuation order. An aggressive campaign brought tourists and more residents back and Baños revived economically; however, this was achieved at the cost of hazard awareness among both groups, tourists and residents, and public safety became compromised.

This paper tests the validity of proximity as an estimate for environmental health hazard exposure, and suggests how it may be used as an indicator in future environmental health and justice research. Using geostatistics and geographic information systems, air pollution monitoring data in Hamilton, Canada are interpolated to obtain local estimates of total suspended particulates. These estimates are used address the following questions: How does the distribution of proximity to health hazards compare with monitored air pollution data? Does the use of proximity rather than air pollution data significantly change the substantive conclusions of environmental injustice in models with sociodemographic data? The results show that proximity measures can be useful indicators if flexibly applied. Guidelines for future applications are discussed.

The paper conducts a retrospective analysis of the relief and recovery efforts in the aftermath of the 2001 flood disaster in the Rawalpindi–Islamabad conurbation in Pakistan. The concept of recovery back to “normal” is questioned because “normal” life in the study area was characterized by extreme poverty, injustice, exposure, and vulnerability to hazards. A strong gender dimension to the experience of relief and recovery was found from the case study. It is suggested that participatory approach to needs assessment and actual relief and recovery, with special attention to gender variables, will go a long way towards linking recovery with long-term vulnerability mitigation.

Flood risk to the economy, society and the environment reflects the cumulative effects of environmental and socio-economic change over decades. Long-term scenarios are therefore required in order to develop robust and sustainable flood risk management policies. Quantified national-scale flood risk analysis and expert appraisal of the mechanisms causing change in flood risk have been used to assess flood risk in England and Wales over the period 2030–2100. The assessment involved the use of socio-economic and climate change scenarios. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed—up to 20-fold increase in economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable to a combination of climate change (in particular increasing precipitation and relative sea level rise in parts of the UK) and increasing socio-economic vulnerability, particularly in terms of household/industrial contents and infrastructure vulnerability. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.

Resilience is widely seen as a desirable system property in environmental management. This paper explores the concept of resilience to natural hazards, using weather-related hazards in coastal megacities as an example. The paper draws on the wide literature on megacities, coastal hazards, hazard risk reduction strategies, and resilience within environmental management. Some analysts define resilience as a system attribute, whilst others use it as an umbrella concept for a range of system attributes deemed desirable. These umbrella concepts have not been made operational to support planning or management. It is recommended that resilience only be used in a restricted sense to describe specific system attributes concerning (i) the amount of disturbance a system can absorb and still remain within the same state or domain of attraction and (ii) the degree to which the system is capable of self-organisation. The concept of adaptive capacity, which has emerged in the context of climate change, can then be adopted as the umbrella concept, where resilience will be one factor influencing adaptive capacity. This improvement to conceptual clarity would foster much-needed communication between the natural hazards and the climate change communities and, more importantly, offers greater potential in application, especially when attempting to move away from disaster recovery to hazard prediction, disaster prevention, and preparedness.

In this article we argue that the growing occurrence and impacts of forest fires in Catalonia can be mainly attributed not to climate change or individual misbehavior but to the decline of the landscape mosaic that has historically characterized Mediterranean rural areas. Recent socio-economic change has resulted in an uncontrolled growth of the forest masses in turn facilitating the propagation of large fires. Forest fire policy has reacted compulsively after the great fire waves of the last decades overemphasizing extinction to the detriment of prevention, and individual education to the detriment of a more comprehensive rural development planning. This option reflects a biased analysis of causality, which we examine in the context of the hazard chain developed by researchers at Clark University. Using the example of the Bages County in central Catalonia we outline the problems associated with the conventional approach to forest fire management and also the difficulties faced by alternative choices.

New technologies promise reduced flash flood losses. However, real-time observations with vast multi-sensor networks, more precise mapping capabilities using remote sensing and GIS, quicker hydrological and meteorological models, and increasing forecast lead times have not reduced losses. In November, 1999, 35 researchers from nine countries met in Ravello, Italy at a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute, to discuss these issues and to develop a research agenda that incorporates the various components required to cope with flash floods. The key recommendations from the Institute were: (1) greater emphasis on increasing understanding of the social processes involved in flash flood warning, particularly in the response phases, and (2) the need to reduce vulnerability in sustainable ways compatible with long-term economic and social goals. The relationship between hydrometeorology and social science is seen as critical to advancing our abilities to cope with flash floods.