Journal of Government and Economics最新文献

英文中文

Testing self-financing public investment: Evidence from an oil-exporting economy 测试自筹资金的公共投资：来自石油出口经济体的证据

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2026.100164

Yanina Bajaña-Villagómez , Freddy García-Albán

We revisit the fiscal return to public investment using a present-value self-financing criterion that can be interpreted as a benchmark decision rule for a revenue-constrained government in oil-exporting economies. We first derive simple analytical bounds that translate the condition into requirements on discounted multipliers, clarifying why a multiplier greater than one is necessary but far from sufficient for self-financing. We then implement the test for Ecuador—an oil-exporting, dollarized economy—using a Bayesian VAR with sign and zero restrictions over 2004Q1–2019Q3. The empirical framework treats oil revenues as a fiscal income component and assesses the relevance of oil-revenue exogeneity in a resource-dependent setting. We evaluate five specifications: public-investment and public-consumption shocks, an oil-revenue shock, and two financing-based scenarios (deficit-financed and oil-financed investment). Across horizons up to 80 quarters, median present-value ratios lie well below the self-financing threshold. The most favorable case—deficit-financed investment—approaches unity but remains far short of the threshold, while oil-financed investment performs noticeably worse. We conclude that, although public investment raises output, it does not generate present-value fiscal returns commensurate with its cost.

我们使用现值自我融资标准重新审视公共投资的财政回报，该标准可以被解释为石油出口经济体中收入受限政府的基准决策规则。我们首先推导出简单的分析界限，将条件转化为对贴现乘数的要求，阐明为什么乘数大于1是必要的，但远不足以实现自筹资金。然后，我们对厄瓜多尔（一个石油出口、美元化的经济体）实施了测试，在2004年第四季度至2019年第三季度期间，我们使用带有符号和零限制的贝叶斯VAR。实证框架将石油收入视为财政收入的组成部分，并评估石油收入外生性在资源依赖型环境中的相关性。我们评估了五种规格：公共投资和公共消费冲击、石油收入冲击和两种基于融资的情景（赤字融资和石油融资投资）。在长达80个季度的时间跨度内，现值比率中值远低于自我融资门槛。最有利的案例——赤字融资投资接近统一，但仍远低于门槛，而石油融资投资的表现明显更差。我们的结论是，尽管公共投资提高了产出，但它无法产生与其成本相称的现值财政回报。

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引用次数: 0

When institutions intervene: Economic freedom and the uneven transmission of monetary policy into U.S. housing markets 当机构干预：经济自由和货币政策对美国房地产市场的不均衡传导

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2026.100166

Rafael Acevedo , Jorge Romero-Habeych

This paper investigates whether the effects of monetary policy shocks on housing prices are conditioned by state-level institutional quality, measured through economic freedom. Using an annual panel of U.S. states from 1991 to 2007 and a fixed-effects interaction model, we find that the impact of monetary policy on housing prices consistently declines in states with greater economic freedom. While the estimated effects are modest, they are statistically significant and robust across multiple specifications and alternative measures of both monetary shocks and institutional quality. The results suggest that more market-oriented institutional environments do moderately dampen monetary transmission into housing markets.

本文研究了货币政策冲击对房价的影响是否取决于国家层面的制度质量（通过经济自由度来衡量）。利用1991年至2007年美国各州的年度面板和固定效应相互作用模型，我们发现货币政策对房价的影响在经济自由度较大的州持续下降。虽然估计的影响是适度的，但在多种规格和货币冲击和制度质量的替代措施中，它们在统计上是显著的和稳健的。结果表明，更加市场化的制度环境确实适度抑制了货币向住房市场的传导。

引用次数: 0

The role of government in shaping market competition and ownership structure in the banking industry: substitutes or complements? 政府在塑造银行业市场竞争和所有权结构中的作用：替代还是补充？

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-10-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100158

Miroslav Mateev

This study investigates how market competition and ownership concentration influence bank performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a particular focus on the role of government in shaping these relationships. Using data from 175 banks across 19 countries from the MENA region between 2006 and 2022, we explore whether competition and ownership act as substitutes or complements under regulatory and institutional frameworks. Unlike prior studies, this research focuses specifically on the banking sector, where governance structures are strongly shaped by policy and regulation. The findings indicate that, individually, both ownership concentration and market power enhance profitability and stability. More importantly, their interaction demonstrates a complementary effect: market competition amplifies the positive impact of ownership concentration on bank performance. This effect remains robust across varying levels of ownership concentration. The results indicate that government policies promoting fair competition can enhance and reinforce the benefits associated with ownership structures. Furthermore, Islamic banks appear to benefit more from the complementarity effect of governance mechanisms compared to conventional banks, highlighting the importance of tailored regulatory oversight to promote financial stability within a dual banking system.

本研究调查了市场竞争和所有权集中度如何影响中东和北非（MENA）地区的银行绩效，并特别关注政府在塑造这些关系中的作用。利用2006年至2022年期间来自中东和北非地区19个国家175家银行的数据，我们探讨了在监管和制度框架下，竞争和所有权是相互替代还是相互补充。与之前的研究不同，本研究特别关注银行部门，该部门的治理结构受到政策和监管的强烈影响。研究结果表明，单独来看，股权集中度和市场支配力都能提高盈利能力和稳定性。更重要的是，二者的相互作用呈现出互补效应：市场竞争放大了股权集中度对银行绩效的正向影响。这种效应在不同程度的股权集中度中依然强劲。结果表明，促进公平竞争的政府政策可以增强和强化与所有权结构相关的利益。此外，与传统银行相比，伊斯兰银行似乎从治理机制的互补效应中获益更多，这突出了在双重银行体系中促进金融稳定的量身定制监管的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Terrorism and gender inequalities in politics: An empirical analysis 恐怖主义与政治中的性别不平等：一个实证分析

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100157

Atangana Zambo Charles Christian , Ongo Nkoa Bruno Emmanuel , Etogo Nyaga Yves Patrice

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of terrorism on gender inequality in politics for a panel of 180 countries over the period 2000-2020. Using generalized method of moments in a system, the results obtained reveal that terrorism reduces women's political representation, thereby increasing gender inequality in politics. This result remained robust after modifying the measure of women's political representation and terrorism. However, further analysis showed that, effect of international sanctions as moderators was limited in time, while military spending and autocracy amplify gender inequality in politics during periods of terrorism. Based on these findings, we propose that leaders of countries affected by terrorism promote democratic norms and that the international community prioritize sanctions that promote gender norms in target countries.

本研究的目的是分析恐怖主义对2000-2020年180个国家政治性别不平等的影响。利用系统中广义矩量方法，得到的结果表明，恐怖主义减少了女性的政治代表性，从而增加了政治中的性别不平等。在修改了妇女政治代表性和恐怖主义的衡量标准后，这一结果仍然强劲。然而，进一步的分析表明，国际制裁作为调节者的效果在时间上是有限的，而军费开支和专制在恐怖主义时期放大了政治上的性别不平等。基于这些发现，我们建议受恐怖主义影响国家的领导人促进民主规范，国际社会优先考虑促进目标国家性别规范的制裁。

引用次数: 0

Diversification of rare earth metals supply chain: Can the U.S. rely on non-Chinese sources? 稀土金属供应链多元化：美国能依赖非中国来源吗？

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100156

Arsene Oka

China’s recent restrictions on rare earth (RE) metal exports have heightened U.S. concerns over supply security. A key question is whether non-Chinese producers can substitute for China and reduce dependence. This paper examines that issue by estimating the cross-price elasticity of U.S. RE metal imports from China and the rest of the world (ROW). Positive elasticities imply substitutability, while negative values suggest complementarity, limiting diversification. Using a cointegration-based time-series framework and annual data from 1991–2023, the analysis reveals a clear time horizon distinction. In the long run, Chinese and ROW supplies behave as complements: price increases in one source reduce imports from the other. In the short run, however, they act as substitutes, with higher prices from one source increasing imports from the other. The findings show that while non-Chinese suppliers can provide short-term relief, they cannot fully replace Chinese supply in the long run due to higher costs and limited capacity. China therefore remains structurally indispensable, underscoring the importance of industrial policy and strategic investment in developing a domestic RE metals supply chain. This study provides the first empirical estimates of U.S. RE import demand and disaggregated cross-price elasticities, offering insights for both supply chain managers and government strategists.

中国最近对稀土金属出口的限制加剧了美国对供应安全的担忧。一个关键问题是，非中国生产商能否替代中国并减少对中国的依赖。本文通过估算美国从中国和世界其他地区进口稀土金属（ROW）的交叉价格弹性来检验这一问题。正弹性意味着可替代性，而负值意味着互补性，限制了多样化。使用基于协整的时间序列框架和1991-2023年的年度数据，分析显示了明显的时间范围差异。从长远来看，中国和西欧的供应互为补充：一个来源的价格上涨会减少从另一个来源的进口。然而，在短期内，它们起到了替代品的作用，一个来源的价格上涨会增加从另一个来源的进口。研究结果表明，尽管非中国供应商可以提供短期缓解，但从长远来看，由于成本较高和产能有限，它们无法完全取代中国供应。因此，中国在结构上仍然不可或缺，强调了产业政策和战略投资对发展国内可再生金属供应链的重要性。本研究首次提供了美国稀土进口需求和分类交叉价格弹性的实证估计，为供应链经理和政府战略家提供了见解。

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引用次数: 0

National output without government? State capacity and welfare measurement 没有政府的国民产出？国家能力和福利衡量

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100155

Vincent Geloso , Chandler S. Reilly

Should government services be counted in GDP? In this paper, we argue that this is the wrong question. The more relevant question is: what do government services allow us to capture about economic well-being? By construction, counting government spending at cost as part of GDP turns it into an upper-bound approximation of welfare—one that tends to overvalue the contribution of the state. We use the concept of the Private Product Remaining (PPR) from Rothbard (1972) as a lower-bound measure of economic output that removes government in a comprehensive manner from GDP. We argue that the gap between GDP and PPR reflects the uncertainty surrounding the true welfare contribution of the state (thus affecting the reliability of any attempts of using national accounts to speak to welfare). This gap becomes analytically useful once we introduce state capacity into the picture: improvements in state capacity shift us along the spectrum between these two bounds. We formalize this idea through a "measurement legitimacy" function of state capacity which lies between PPR and GDP depending on the effectiveness of the state. Using newly extended data for the United States from 1889 to 2024, we find that the size and direction of the gap between the two measures vary systematically in ways that alter our understanding of American economic history and the role of state capacity. From 1889 to 1928, rising state capacity leads to GDP understating growth. Between 1929 and 1985, GDP overstates growth. After 1985, GDP once again understates it.

政府服务应该计入GDP吗？在本文中，我们认为这是一个错误的问题。更相关的问题是：政府服务让我们能够捕捉到经济福祉的哪些方面？通过构建，将政府支出的成本作为GDP的一部分来计算，使其成为福利的上界近似值——这往往高估了国家的贡献。我们使用罗斯巴德（Rothbard, 1972）的私人产品剩余（PPR）概念作为经济产出的下限指标，将政府从GDP中全面剔除。我们认为GDP和PPR之间的差距反映了围绕国家真正福利贡献的不确定性（从而影响了使用国民账户来谈论福利的任何尝试的可靠性）。一旦我们将状态容量引入图中，这个差距在分析上就变得有用了：状态容量的改进使我们沿着这两个界限之间的频谱移动。我们通过国家能力的“测量合法性”函数将这一想法形式化，该函数位于PPR和GDP之间，取决于国家的有效性。利用美国1889年至2024年的最新扩展数据，我们发现这两个指标之间差距的大小和方向系统性地变化，从而改变了我们对美国经济史和国家能力作用的理解。从1889年到1928年，不断增长的国家产能导致GDP低估了增长。1929年至1985年间，GDP夸大了增长。1985年之后，GDP再次低估了这一数字。

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引用次数: 0

Untangling Africa’s peace and growth trajectories: the role of property rights 理清非洲的和平与增长轨迹：产权的作用

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100159

Martins Iyoboyi , Muftau Olaiya Olarinde

The role of government in promoting property rights has been acknowledged in the literature. This study investigates the impact of property rights peace, and consequently the impact of peace and property rights on economic growth, utilizing the system Generalized Method of Moments technique on panel data on 31 African countries from 2008 to 2019. The results indicate that the institutional structure in natural resource-based countries, through mitigating the effects of the natural resource curse phenomenon, improves economic growth. The paper concludes with actionable recommendations on the contributions of property rights on peace and economic growth and recommends policies that improve the quality of property rights in the African context and government integrity. The role of government is critical in Africa, in ensuring improved property rights and ensuring a peaceful environment for growth.

政府在促进产权方面的作用已在文献中得到承认。本研究利用系统广义矩量法技术对31个非洲国家2008年至2019年的面板数据进行了调查，探讨了产权和平的影响，从而探讨了和平与产权对经济增长的影响。研究结果表明，自然资源型国家的制度结构通过缓解自然资源诅咒现象的影响，促进经济增长。该文件最后就产权对和平与经济增长的贡献提出了可行的建议，并就改善非洲背景下产权质量和政府廉正的政策提出了建议。在非洲，政府在确保改善产权和确保和平的增长环境方面的作用是至关重要的。

引用次数: 0

Editor’s note: Special issue on government and economic development in history 编者按：历史上的政府与经济发展特刊

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100160

Stephen Broadberry

引用次数: 0

Editor’s note: Rare earth, size of government and GDP, institutions, and terrorism 编者注：稀土、政府规模和GDP、机构和恐怖主义

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100161

Zhangkai Huang, David Daokui Li

引用次数: 0

Can poor institutions explain Brazil’s economic stagnation? A brief review of policy choices and incentives 糟糕的制度能解释巴西经济停滞的原因吗？简要回顾政策选择和激励措施

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2025-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100150

Matheus Terentin

This article critically examines Brazil's economic stagnation since the 1980s, contesting the overarching view that attributes underdevelopment primarily to poor institutions. While acknowledging Brazil's impressive growth from 1932 to 1980, driven by an entrepreneurial state, the paper argues that the institutional determinants of growth do not offer a plausible explanation for its slowdown. Instead, it presents an alternative perspective rooted in New Developmentalism and structuralist economics, highlighting the detrimental impact of policy shifts initiated in the 1980s. These include the retreat of the developmental state, a decline in public investment, chronically high interest rates, and a persistently overvalued exchange rate, all of which have hampered Brazil's structural transformation. Knowing who benefits and who loses from these policies provides insight into why policymakers persist on this stagnant path, sacrificing sustained growth for momentary gains. It concludes by asserting that policymakers have conveniently used the discourse of public inefficiency to justify withdrawing the government from its role in development. It advocates for a paradigm shift in policymaking, urging recognition that poor institutions are primarily a consequence, not a cause, of underdevelopment.

本文批判性地考察了巴西自20世纪80年代以来的经济停滞，对将不发达主要归因于糟糕制度的总体观点提出了质疑。虽然承认巴西在企业家国家的推动下，从1932年到1980年取得了令人印象深刻的增长，但本文认为，增长的制度决定因素并不能为其放缓提供合理的解释。相反，它提出了植根于新发展主义和结构主义经济学的另一种观点，强调了20世纪80年代开始的政策转变的有害影响。这些因素包括发展中国家的退出、公共投资的减少、长期的高利率和持续高估的汇率，所有这些都阻碍了巴西的结构转型。了解谁从这些政策中受益，谁从这些政策中受损，可以让我们深入了解决策者为什么坚持走这条停滞不前的道路，牺牲持续增长来换取短暂的收益。文章最后断言，政策制定者很方便地利用公共效率低下的话语，为政府退出其在发展中的角色辩护。它倡导在政策制定方面进行范式转变，敦促人们认识到，糟糕的制度主要是不发达的结果，而不是原因。

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