Journal of Government and Economics最新文献

英文中文

Political determinants of centre-state transfers: An empirical analysis across Indian states 中央邦转移支付的政治决定因素：印度各邦的实证分析

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100130

Deepti Kohli

This paper focuses on the political aspect of intergovernmental transfers in India. By using a balanced panel data-set comprising of data on 28 Indian states and Union Territories for the period 2003–2023 for both Legislative Assembly and Parliamentary elections at the state-level, the aim is to investigate whether there occurs a politically motivated distribution of financial resources by the central government to the states in India? The analysis has been done for three categories of centre-state transfers: loans, grants and tax devolution. The regression estimations include various political controls such as, electoral competition between political parties, voter participation rate, government’s ideological leaning, centre-state partisan affiliation, government incumbency and a control for political lobbying. The findings of this study reveal a significant influence of various political forces on different categories of intergovernmental transfers in India. For instance, a greater political competition leads to a lowering of grants and a rise in tax devolution and loans provided by the central government in proportion to the state’s GDP. A left-leaning government ideology is found to entail an increase in the proportion of grants from the centre in proportion to the state’s GDP. In addition, a greater partisan affiliation between the central and state governments leads to an increase in the average proportion of grants and tax devolution provided to that state. Finally, an increase in the political contributions provided to the winning party in a state leads to a rise in the provision of loans and grants by the centre to that state, while tax devolution is dampened. All these results do provide some evidence in favour of electoral opportunism and lobbying at work in the distribution of financial resources across Indian states.

本文关注的是印度政府间转移支付的政治方面。通过使用一个平衡的面板数据集，包括28个印度邦和联邦领土2003-2023年期间的立法议会和邦一级议会选举的数据，目的是调查中央政府是否出于政治动机向印度邦分配财政资源？这项分析是针对中央政府的三种转移支付方式进行的：贷款、拨款和税收下放。回归估计包括各种政治控制，如政党之间的选举竞争、选民参与率、政府的意识形态倾向、中央州的党派关系、政府任职和对政治游说的控制。本研究的结果揭示了各种政治力量对印度不同类别的政府间转移支付的重大影响。例如，更激烈的政治竞争导致补助金减少，税收下放增加，中央政府提供的贷款与邦的GDP成比例。研究发现，左倾的政府意识形态会导致中央政府拨款占该州GDP的比例增加。此外，中央和州政府之间更大的党派关系导致向该州提供的拨款和税收下放的平均比例增加。最后，在一个州，向获胜政党提供的政治捐款增加，会导致中央政府向该邦提供的贷款和拨款增加，同时税收权力下放受到抑制。所有这些结果确实提供了一些支持选举机会主义和游说在印度各邦财政资源分配中的作用的证据。

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引用次数: 0

Trade remedy measures and their effects on industry performance, and implicit government intentions: Changes in revealed comparative advantage indices in China, India, and Japan 贸易救济措施及其对产业绩效和政府隐性意图的影响：中国、印度和日本的显性比较优势指数变化

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100129

Keiichi Iwase, Shuichi Ishida

This study introduces a two-dimensional matrix analysis method that utilizes revealed comparative advantage and revealed comparative disadvantage indices. It aims to clarify the impact of trade remedy measures on beneficiary industries' performance. We compare the effects of these measures across both growing and mature industries. In the former case, we examine the steel industries in China and India, while in the latter case, we focus on Japan's basic chemicals and other products. By tracking the changes in the revealed comparative advantage and disadvantage indices before and after the execution of each measure, we identify distinct patterns depending on the industry's developmental stage. Although trade remedy measures are defined as countermeasures against unfair trade practices, this distinction enables us to determine whether trade remedy measures serve as tools for enhancing and sustaining industrial competitiveness or averting competitive disadvantages effectively with implicit intentions of governments. Furthermore, this analytical framework also provides insights into industry conditions. Its versatility extends to potential applications in corporate management and policy evaluation.

本文介绍了利用显性比较优势和显性比较劣势指标的二维矩阵分析方法。旨在阐明贸易救济措施对受益行业绩效的影响。我们比较了这些措施对成长型和成熟型行业的影响。在前一种情况下，我们研究了中国和印度的钢铁行业，而在后一种情况下，我们关注的是日本的基本化学品和其他产品。通过跟踪各措施实施前后的显性比较优势和劣势指数的变化，我们发现了不同行业发展阶段的不同模式。虽然贸易救济措施被定义为针对不公平贸易行为的反制措施，但这一区别使我们能够确定贸易救济措施是作为增强和维持产业竞争力的工具，还是在政府隐含意图的情况下有效避免竞争劣势的工具。此外，该分析框架还提供了对行业状况的洞察。它的多功能性扩展到公司管理和政策评估方面的潜在应用。

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引用次数: 0

Editor's note: Market-preserving government, global value chains, trade remedies, center-state transfers, and foreign aid. 编者按：维护市场的政府、全球价值链、贸易救济、中央政府转移支付和外援。

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2025.100133

Zhangkai Huang, David Daokui Li

引用次数: 0

The nature of market-preserving government 维护市场的政府的本质

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100131

Yi-Jiang Wang

This paper offers a framework for understanding the origin of market-preserving government. The paper shows that when parties in a Hobbesian society end in an arms race rather than war, they can create a market-preserving government to maintain the no-war equilibrium at lower cost. The government can be small yet effective or larger and more efficient. Under certain conditions, the parties are better off completely disarming themselves, paving the road for a modern society with equal rights for all citizens and a government monopoly on violence. The war-economic theory of political development sheds light on historical experiences and contemporary policy issues.

本文为理解维护市场的政府的起源提供了一个框架。这篇论文表明，当霍布斯社会中的各方以军备竞赛而不是战争结束时，他们可以创建一个保持市场的政府，以较低的成本维持无战争均衡。政府可以小而有效，也可以大而高效。在某些条件下，各方最好完全解除武装，为所有公民享有平等权利、政府垄断暴力的现代社会铺平道路。政治发展的战争经济理论为历史经验和当代政策问题提供了启示。

引用次数: 0

Long-term effects of deep institutional shocks: Historical evidence from Mexico 深度制度冲击的长期影响：墨西哥的历史证据

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100128

Shai Dothan , Mitja Kovac , Rok Spruk

This paper examines the potential impact of institutional shocks on long-term development of property rights and on institutions regulating contracting. The paper seeks to demonstrate that the external institutional shocks might have an uncontemplated side-effect on the institutional development of Mexico. The analysis exploits the within-country variation in the presence of US administrative authorities during the Mexican-American conflict across Mexican states and cities. Using propensity score and nearest neighbour matching technique, we present some evidence of the potential long-term institutional implications of the presence of US administrative authorities. We show that the presence of US administrative authority generated an unexpected positive effect which could influence long-term property rights and contracting institutions of Mexican states. The positive impact of US administrative authorities’ presence are robust to a variety of specification checks and are particularly large for smaller cities.

本文探讨了制度冲击对产权的长期发展以及对规范订约的制度的潜在影响。本文试图证明，外部制度冲击可能会对墨西哥的制度发展产生意料之外的副作用。分析利用了美墨冲突期间美国行政机构在墨西哥各州和各市存在的国内差异。利用倾向得分和近邻匹配技术，我们提出了一些证据，说明美国行政当局的存在可能对制度产生的长期影响。我们发现，美国行政当局的存在产生了意想不到的积极影响，可能会对墨西哥各州的长期产权和契约制度产生影响。美国行政机构的存在所产生的积极影响对各种规范检查都是稳健的，尤其是对较小的城市。

引用次数: 0

Global value chains and intra-BRICs trade in value-added 全球价值链和区域经济一体化倡议内部的增值贸易

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-11-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100127

José Firmino de Sousa Filho , Gervásio Ferreira dos Santos , Luiz Carlos de Santana Ribeiro , Rodrigo Barbosa de Cerqueira , Larissa Lopes Lima

We analyze the BRICs countries' role in Global Value Chains (GVCs) and their trade patterns in value-added and vertical specialization, using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) from 2000-2014 with a decomposition model of intermediate goods and trade flows. Our findings reveal increased connectivity within global value chains, particularly for China and India. China significantly advances GVCs and intra-BRICs trade, focusing on high and medium-high technology industries. Brazil and Russia, however, have limited participation in GVCs, mainly engaging in value-added trade for medium-low and low-technology industries. Our network analysis reveals increasing connections between countries in global value chains, particularly for China and India. India excels in medium-technology goods and has increased its share in GVCs. While India and China demonstrate strong vertical specialization, Brazil and Russia concentrate major component exports on domestic value-added. Our study emphasizes the importance of expanding coordinated government policies among BRICs countries to foster value-added trade gains and industrial development. Governments in BRICs must address the strategic gaps to leverage their domestic resources effectively within the GVC framework.

我们利用 2000-2014 年的世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）和中间产品与贸易流分解模型，分析了金砖四国在全球价值链（GVC）中的作用及其在附加值和纵向专业化方面的贸易模式。我们的研究结果表明，全球价值链内部的连通性增强，尤其是中国和印度。中国以高新技术产业为重点，极大地推动了全球价值链和区域内贸易。而巴西和俄罗斯对全球价值链的参与有限，主要从事中低技术产业的增值贸易。我们的网络分析显示，各国在全球价值链中的联系日益紧密，尤其是中国和印度。印度在中等技术产品方面表现突出，在全球价值链中的份额也有所增加。印度和中国表现出很强的纵向专业化，而巴西和俄罗斯则将主要的零部件出口集中在国内附加值上。我们的研究强调了扩大金砖四国之间政府政策协调的重要性，以促进增值贸易收益和工业发展。金砖四国政府必须解决战略差距问题，以便在全球价值链框架内有效利用国内资源。

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引用次数: 0

The state and industrialization in Turkey since the nineteenth century 十九世纪以来土耳其的国家与工业化

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-10-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100126

Şevket Pamuk

State directed industrialization in developing countries became a common strategy after World War II. The success of a small number of countries in East Asia added new dimensions to the debates on the role of states in taming domestic and international market forces. However, it soon became evident that states and government-private sector relations in developing countries show a great deal of variation which is reflected in the different degrees of success with state directed industrialization. This paper focuses on a country which has experienced above average rates of industrialization but has not been amongst the most successful cases. It examines the evolution of the larger political order, the state-private sector relations and the related “micro” institutions in four periods. One key finding is that the international environment has not always been conducive to industrialization. Moreover, industrialization outcomes did not depend on a single or a specific set of institutions but on the relations between the political and private sector elites, and more generally, on the political economy.

第二次世界大战后，国家指导发展中国家的工业化成为一种常见战略。东亚少数国家的成功为有关国家在控制国内和国际市场力量方面的作用的讨论增添了新的内容。然而，人们很快发现，发展中国家的国家和政府与私营部门的关系存在很大差异，这反映在国家指导的工业化取得了不同程度的成功。本文将重点关注一个工业化率高于平均水平，但并不属于最成功案例的国家。它研究了四个时期中更广泛的政治秩序、国家与私营部门的关系以及相关 "微观 "机构的演变。一个重要发现是，国际环境并不总是有利于工业化。此外，工业化的结果并不取决于单一或特定的一套制度，而是取决于政治精英和私营部门精英之间的关系，更广泛地说，取决于政治经济。

引用次数: 0

European sovereign debt risk management: The role of a European Debt Agency 欧洲主权债务风险管理：欧洲债务机构的作用

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100118

Massimo Amato , Everardo Belloni , Carlo A. Favero , Lucio Gobbi , Ludovica Priviero

This paper proposes the establishment of a European Debt Agency (EDA) as a tool for the efficient management of Eurozone public debt, to address two primary risks: roll-over and sustainability risk. The proposed EDA would price its loans using a transparent formula that would anchor the price to fundamental economic factors. This approach would encourage fiscal discipline among Member States and avoid inefficient costs resulting from market price deviations from fundamentals, without resorting to debt mutualization. In addition, the paper suggests that adopting flexible fiscal rules alongside the EDA could result in a smoother path towards debt stabilization, by mitigating the macroeconomic effects of excessive fluctuations in risk premia. The simulations indicate that this combination could offer a comprehensive strategy for managing sovereign debt in the Eurozone that would promote fiscal responsibility and stability.

本文建议成立欧洲债务机构（EDA），作为有效管理欧元区公共债务的工具，以应对两个主要风险：展期风险和可持续性风险。拟议的欧洲债务管理局将采用透明的公式为贷款定价，使价格与基本经济因素挂钩。这种方法将鼓励成员国执行财政纪律，避免因市场价格偏离基本面而导致成本效率低下，同时又不诉诸债务互助。此外，本文还提出，在采用经济发展援助的同时采用灵活的财政规则，可以减轻风险溢价过度波动对宏观经济的影响，从而更顺利地实现债务稳定。模拟结果表明，这种组合可以为欧元区的主权债务管理提供一个全面的战略，促进财政责任和稳定。

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引用次数: 0

Government responses to oilfield discoveries: Impact of resource wealth on non-resource tax revenues 政府对油田发现的反应：资源财富对非资源税收的影响

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100119

Abraham Lartey

It has often been argued that countries that produce natural resources mobilize less non-resource tax revenues than other countries. In this paper, we exploit the exogenous variation in the timing of giant oilfield discoveries to estimate the causal impact of natural resources on taxation. The timing of giant oilfield discoveries is arguably exogenous and thus renders them appealing to empirically examine this argument. This allows us to examine the performance of non-resource tax revenue effort before and immediately after discovery as well as the period corresponding to the inflow of revenues from the production. We find that non-resource tax revenues tend to increase in the period following the discovery before the onset of production and after production commences. This effect is due to an increase in non-resource indirect tax revenues. Further analysis shows that both the total and indirect non-resource tax revenues, experience an increase in only low- -middle income countries, and largely driven by an increase in the consumption of goods and services.

常有人认为，与其他国家相比，生产自然资源的国家调动的非资源税收较少。在本文中，我们利用巨型油田发现时间的外生变化来估计自然资源对税收的因果影响。巨型油田的发现时间可以说是外生的，因此很适合对这一论点进行实证研究。这使我们能够考察发现油田之前和发现油田之后以及油田生产收入流入的相应时期非资源税收入的表现。我们发现，非资源税收收入往往在发现后生产开始前和生产开始后增加。这种效应是由于非资源间接税收入的增加。进一步的分析表明，只有中低收入国家的非资源税总收入和间接税收入都出现了增长，这主要是由商品和服务消费的增长所驱动的。

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Education and economic growth: Does the East Asian education fever overstate the growth effect? 教育与经济增长：东亚教育热是否夸大了增长效应？

Journal of Government and Economics

Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.jge.2024.100121

Jang C. Jin , Dan-A Kim

This paper employs a cross-country regression to investigate the role of education in the growth of nations. The sample includes 101 countries over the period from 1980 to 2015. We have found that education, in general, has significant effects on economic growth. For the robustness of the results, several sensitivity tests were conducted using alternative measures of education, as well as a dummy variable to isolate an East Asian growth effect. The results were generally robust in that the growth effect of the quantity measure of schooling was statistically significant. However, the growth effect of quality measures of education was substantially mitigated and became insignificant when the East Asian effect was segregated from the regression. The results suggest that the significant growth effects of educational quality found in the literature could have been overstated because of the East Asian growth effect which was largely attributed to the education fever in East Asia.

本文采用跨国回归法研究教育在国家增长中的作用。样本包括 1980 年至 2015 年期间的 101 个国家。我们发现，总体而言，教育对经济增长有显著影响。为了确保结果的稳健性，我们使用了其他教育衡量指标以及一个虚拟变量来隔离东亚的增长效应，并进行了若干敏感性测试。测试结果总体上是稳健的，因为衡量学校教育数量的增长效应在统计上是显著的。然而，当把东亚效应从回归中分离出来时，教育质量的增长效应大大减弱，变得不明显。结果表明，文献中发现的教育质量的显著增长效应可能被夸大了，因为东亚增长效应在很大程度上归因于东亚的教育热。

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