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Optimal policies for protecting the quality of groundwater 保护地下水水质的最佳政策
Pub Date : 1990-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90005-4
Wen-Yuan Huang, Noel D. Uri

This paper provides an analytical framework for use by a regional authority when assessing the potential impacts of a policy initiative directed at improving groundwater quality. In particular, a policy model is developed relying on three decision components (a farm level production decision model, a household decision model and a regional policy decision model) where the objective is that of identifying the trade-offs that a regional authority will be confronted with as it strives to balance the preferences of farmers and households while endeavoring to maximize net economic welfare. The basic rule developed indicates that the regional authority must choose a policy such that any increase (decrease) in regional income is just equal to the decrease (increase) in net benefits to households.

本文提供了一个分析框架,供区域当局在评估旨在改善地下水质量的政策倡议的潜在影响时使用。特别是,一个政策模型是基于三个决策组成部分(农场层面的生产决策模型、家庭决策模型和区域政策决策模型)开发的,其目标是确定区域当局在努力平衡农民和家庭的偏好同时努力最大化净经济福利时将面临的权衡。所开发的基本规则表明,地区当局必须选择一项政策,使任何地区收入的增加(减少)正好等于家庭净收益的减少(增加)。
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引用次数: 0
Energy R&D portfolio analysis 能源研发组合分析
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90014-A
Gideon Fishelson, Brent Kroetch

This paper investigates portfolios of research and development projects as applied to energy storage devices. First, the paper discusses how energy storage is well suited for such portfolio analysis. The paper then focuses on a general discussion of cost-benefit analysis of R&D projects, paying particular attention to technical success. The conditions for which a portfolio of projects is justified are discussed. Next the particular application of portfolios of projects to energy storage is discussed in greater detail. The paper then presents an example of developing a portfolio of energy storage with particular focus on peak and off-peak electricity markets. Finally, the paper concludes that portfolios of R&D projects are appropriate for energy storage devices.

本文研究了应用于储能装置的研究和开发项目组合。首先,本文讨论了储能如何很好地适合于这种投资组合分析。然后,本文集中讨论了研发项目的成本效益分析,特别关注技术上的成功。讨论了项目组合合理的条件。接下来,将更详细地讨论项目组合在储能方面的具体应用。然后,本文给出了一个开发能源存储组合的例子,特别关注高峰和非高峰电力市场。最后,本文得出了研发项目组合适合储能装置的结论。
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引用次数: 4
Energy research and long-term energy policy in the Netherlands 荷兰的能源研究和长期能源政策
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90010-G
P.J. Aubert

Planning of energy research policy relative to future energy developments has been a difficult task for policy planners in the Netherlands. This paper describes the methodology accepted by the General Energy Council as a tool for policy advice. The decision method consists of negotiating agreement at four stages: agreement on the nature of future problems in the energy system, agreement on the kind of criteria to be set for long-term energy policy, agreement on the set of energy options that satisfy these criteria, and finally, agreement on the research needed to develop these options.

对荷兰的政策规划者来说,规划与未来能源发展有关的能源研究政策是一项艰巨的任务。本文描述了通用能源委员会作为政策建议工具所接受的方法。决策方法包括四个阶段的协商协议:就能源系统未来问题的性质达成协议,就制定长期能源政策的标准达成协议,就满足这些标准的一套能源选择达成协议,最后,就制定这些选择所需的研究达成协议。
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引用次数: 2
A framework for the appraisal of energy R&D 能源研发评价框架
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90011-7
George S. Tolley, Gideon Fishelson, S. Tiwari

This article develops a benefit/cost framework for energy R&D projects. Two basic elements are probability of success and market penetration, which are combined to yield a measure of net-benefits to a project. An example is given demonstrating the technique. The article goes on to describe how the technique is used when there is a portfolio of projects, where the outcome of a project affects one or more other projects. Finally, the article outlines decision rules for undertaking projects in a portfolio.

本文为能源研发项目开发了一个效益/成本框架。两个基本要素是成功的概率和市场渗透,这两个要素结合起来就可以产生一个项目的净效益。最后给出了一个实例。本文将继续描述当存在一个项目组合时如何使用该技术,其中一个项目的结果会影响一个或多个其他项目。最后,本文概述了在投资组合中进行项目的决策规则。
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引用次数: 0
The probability of technical success and R&D appraisal 技术成功概率与研发评价
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90012-8
J. Hodge, Craig Hakkio

Two models that assess the probability of technical success are presented. The first model describes projects that are either complete successes or complete failures. The second model describes projects that may have partial success. The first model uses an expert evaluator's assessments of the probability of success of selected projects to parametrize a logit probability distribution. The results give implicit weights which can be employed in future analyses to calculate the expected level of success of new projects. The second model allows projects to be partially successful. Several methods of using an expert evaluator's opinion to determine the parameters of a beta distribution are developed.

提出了两种评估技术成功概率的模型。第一个模型描述了完全成功或完全失败的项目。第二个模型描述了可能部分成功的项目。第一个模型使用专家评估者对选定项目成功概率的评估来参数化逻辑概率分布。结果给出了隐式权重,可用于未来的分析,以计算新项目的预期成功水平。第二种模式允许项目部分成功。开发了几种使用专家评估者意见来确定beta分布参数的方法。
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引用次数: 0
Energy research and development : introduction 能源研究与开发:介绍
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90008-7
The Editors
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引用次数: 0
A methodology to incorporate uncertainty into R&D cost and performance data 一种将不确定性纳入研发成本和绩效数据的方法
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90013-9
Stephen Barrager, Oliver Gildersleeve

This paper describes and demonstrates a methodology developed for the Electric Power Research Institute that combines modeling, sensitivity analysis and subjective probability encoding to analyze the cost differences between projects competing for R&D funds. The methodology involves two distinct stages: a deterministic stage and a probabilistic stage. The deterministic stage sets ground rules for comparison, compiles variables and ranges, specifies a cost model, identifies key variables by sensitivity analysis, and reviews the outcome by participants involved. The probabilistic stage determines probability distributions for the key variables and then calculates probability distributions for project costs based on the cost model and distributions of key variables. The paper then demonstrates this methodology by describing a case study step-by-step. The case study is an EPRI comparison of an integrated gasificationcombined cycle plant with a conentional coal plant with flue gas desulfurization. Finally a critique of the methodology is given.

本文描述并演示了为电力研究所开发的一种方法,该方法结合了建模、敏感性分析和主观概率编码来分析竞争研发资金的项目之间的成本差异。该方法包括两个不同的阶段:确定性阶段和概率阶段。确定性阶段为比较设定基本规则,编译变量和范围,指定成本模型,通过敏感性分析确定关键变量,并审查相关参与者的结果。概率阶段确定关键变量的概率分布,然后根据成本模型和关键变量的分布计算项目成本的概率分布。然后,本文通过逐步描述一个案例研究来演示这种方法。案例研究是综合气化联合循环电厂与传统燃煤电厂烟气脱硫的EPRI比较。最后,对该方法进行了批判。
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引用次数: 2
Major energy R&D needs 主要能源研发需求
Pub Date : 1990-02-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(90)90009-8
a group of energy specialists

In the last 15 years, energy systems have experienced significant technological, economic and regulatory influences. Additional information has become available about environmental effects, and new technologies and computer methodologies have evolved to measure and modify these effects. World trade, world energy supply and economic impacts have stabilized somewhat. To deal with these changes, an attempt has been made to identify major research needs in energy exploration, extraction, processing, storage, transmission and end-use. They are aimed at helping achieve three goals: (1) energy security, both economic and strategic; (2) an efficient, or least-cost, strategy of energy supply in the long term; and (3) environmental, societal and institutional acceptability of energy technologies. The guidelines are organized under the headings of ‘Sources of energy supply’, ‘Energy end-uses’, and ‘Pervasive energy issues’. Each section is further divided into research areas which are discussed in terms of issues and research needs to address these issues.

在过去的15年里,能源系统经历了重大的技术、经济和监管影响。关于环境影响的更多信息已经获得,新的技术和计算机方法已经发展到可以测量和修正这些影响。世界贸易、世界能源供应和经济影响已有所稳定。为了应付这些变化,已试图确定能源勘探、提取、加工、储存、传输和最终使用方面的主要研究需要。它们旨在帮助实现三个目标:(1)经济和战略上的能源安全;(2)长期高效或成本最低的能源供应战略;(3)能源技术在环境、社会和制度上的可接受性。这些指导方针被组织在“能源供应来源”、“能源最终用途”和“普遍能源问题”的标题下。每个部分进一步划分为研究领域,这些研究领域根据问题和解决这些问题的研究需求进行讨论。
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引用次数: 0
Simulating Norwegian troll gas prospects in a competitive spatial model 在竞争性空间模型中模拟挪威巨魔天然气前景
Pub Date : 1989-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(89)90004-2
Carol Dahl, Eystein Gjelsvik

The 1986 Troll gas agreement between Statoil and a European consortium of gas buyers is the largest ever signed in Europe. Uncertainty surrounds this most expensive North Sea gas to date with its long lead time and dependence on an unstable oil market. Uncertain contract profitability is a key concern extending to both sides of the market. Importing and exporting governments as well as those more directly involved have a keen interest in deriving the bounds such profits might have. We provide quantitative evidence on profitability for these decision makers by simulating this infusion of gas into the European gas market using a spatial model that includes both gas and oil explicitly. The model simultaneously solves for equilibrium gas prices at demand and supply regions, given transportation costs as well as supply and demand assumptions in the oil and gas markets. The model generates gas prices under alternative assumptions about oil prices; own and cross price elasticities for gas and oil; income growth and elasticities; as well as the behavior of Norway's major competitors. Combining these prices with cost information, we compute a range of rates of return for the project that vary from 7.4% to 24.8%. We find these rates of return to be highly dependent on oil prices, income growth, income elasticities, and alternative supplies of gas, but much less dependent on own and cross price elasticities for gas. Using a probability distribution derived from oil price forecasts, we find expected real rates of return to be 15.9% to 21.9%. We conclude that under our model assumptions, if contract prices are adjusted to market forces, the Troll contract appears to be quite promising.

1986年挪威国家石油公司与一个欧洲天然气买家财团签署的巨魔天然气协议是欧洲有史以来签署的最大协议。这种迄今为止最昂贵的北海天然气的开发周期很长,而且依赖于不稳定的石油市场,因此存在不确定性。不确定的合同盈利能力是市场双方都关注的一个关键问题。进出口政府以及那些更直接参与其中的政府,都对确定此类利润可能具有的界限有着浓厚的兴趣。我们通过使用明确包括天然气和石油的空间模型模拟天然气注入欧洲天然气市场,为这些决策者提供了盈利能力的定量证据。在给定运输成本和油气市场供需假设的情况下,该模型同时解决了供需区域的平衡天然气价格问题。该模型在对油价的不同假设下生成天然气价格;天然气和石油的自有和交叉价格弹性;收入增长和弹性;以及挪威主要竞争对手的行为。将这些价格与成本信息结合起来,我们计算出项目的回报率范围,从7.4%到24.8%不等。我们发现,这些回报率高度依赖于油价、收入增长、收入弹性和天然气的替代供应,但对天然气自身和交叉价格弹性的依赖程度要小得多。根据石油价格预测得出的概率分布,我们发现预期实际收益率为15.9%至21.9%。我们的结论是,在我们的模型假设下,如果合同价格根据市场力量进行调整,巨魔合同似乎很有希望。
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引用次数: 3
Uncertainty and the joint extraction of helium and natural gas 不确定性和氦和天然气的联合开采
Pub Date : 1989-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/0165-0572(89)90005-4
A.M. Hughey

In this paper a model of joint natural resources is developed in order to examine particular aspects of the helium industry. The importance of helium demand for the equilibria in the markets for natural gas and helium, the joint resources, is analyzed. This analysis is pursued under both conditions of certainty and helium demand uncertainty. A modified Hotelling rule is derived under conditions of uncertainty in the timing of demand for the residual resource.

本文建立了一个联合自然资源模型,以考察氦工业的特定方面。分析了氦气需求对天然气和氦气这两种联合资源市场平衡的重要性。这种分析是在确定性和氦需求不确定性两种情况下进行的。在剩余资源需求时间不确定的条件下,导出了改进的霍特林规则。
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引用次数: 5
期刊
Resources and Energy
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