Resources and Energy最新文献

The purpose of this paper is to study productivity growth in Illinois electric utilities. We develop an input based Malmquist productivity index which makes use of Shephard's input distance functions. Our Malmquist productivity index does not require that firms be revenue maximizers or cost minimizers or that information be available on input prices. Moreover, our productivity index accounts for changes in technical efficiency as well as changes in the frontier technology. Linear programming techniques are used to calculate the Malmquist productivity index for a sample of 19 coal-fired steam electric generating plants in Illinois during 1975–1981. On average, rates of productivity growth are relatively stable but statistically significant productivity slowdown is found for the period of 1976–1977. The major contribution to this productivity slowdown is due to technological regress in that period. At the plant-specific level, we found that there are considerable variations in changes in both efficiency and technology and that efficiency change plays a major role in productivity growth. Our results suggest that neglecting technical efficiency in the analysis of productivity growth may lead to inappropriate conclusions.

A model of oil-well valuation and abandonment is proposed for situations where shut-down decisions are irreversible and where there is uncertainty both of future oil prices and oil extraction rates. The approach uses the stopping rule approach to irreversible investment projects to derive valuations and abandonment rules.

Optimal use over time of renewable and non-renewable natural resources is studied within a model where the two resources are used for the same purpose. It is shown that the two types of resources should be used at the same time if, and only if, the stock of the renewable resource is at its MSY-level. Contrary to the result when the two resources are studied in isolation from each other the biological concept MSY is economically relevant, independent of the rate of interest. Optimal paths over time for the use of the two resources from different initial situations are also found.

In this paper we present a multi-period, multi-region model of cost-minimizing new investment in electricity generation capacity, efficient plant dispatch subject to environmental constraints, and interregional power exchanges. We illustrate the model's use by applying it to a nine-state region in the eastern U.S. A key feature of the modeling framework is a detailed stochastic sensitivity analysis. The main conclusions from our application are that some ‘new’ generation technologies appear to have significant cost advantages over technologies now being widely used, and that expanded interregional power exchanges may convey significant cost savings if the requisite transmission capacity is available.

Statistical analyses of electricity generation productivity have focused on the capacity factor, i.e., the ratio of realized to potential output. Here, the capacity factor is decomposed into the capacity utilization rate (output when the reactor is operating) and the service factor (the percent of operating time). Elasticities of capacity factor, utilization rate, service factor, and the forced outage rate with respect to reactor size and age are estimated for fuel cycles of four reactor manufacturers, controlling for changes in the industry after the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979. While the service factor decreases with size for all reactor makes, the increase in the capacity utilization rate yields a positive relationship between size and the capacity factor for boiling water reactors. Age has no consistent influence. Only Babcock & Wilcox (the manufacturer of TMI) reactors experienced a significant decrease in productivity after 1979.

The Replacement Cost Integration Program (RCIP) forecasts the annual additions to proven reserves and production of domestic crude oil. The inputs to RCIP include parameters (discount rate, tax rate, and supply elasticity), expected oil prices, and process model output. The process model output consists of capital costs, operating costs, and production levels for 31 regions. For each region and year, RCIP calculates expected profits and forecasts the level of reserve additions. Two production profiles relate reserve additions to future oil production. The parameters in the model were estimated using data for 1970 to 1986. Results are presented for two sets of prices: high and low. For the period from 1987 to 2020, the cumulative production of oil increases by 64 percent from the low case to the high case, while the cumulative additions to proven reserves increase by more than a factor of three.

In this note, it is shown that, in contrast to the conclusion reached in Dasgupta (1982), the optimal age for felling trees in a constrained synchronized forest is less than in a rotating forest. And the latter is less than for a single-one time tree.

Using a pool of data from eleven time-of-use (TOU) pricing experiments, a consumer demand model is estimated, and simple but statistically exact tests are performed for rate structure parameter instability across these experiments. Rate structure effects considered in the analyses concern the length of time (during the demand cycle) that the respective prices are charged, intermediate pricing periods, demand versus energy charges, and voluntary versus mandatory participation. Pricing period length and energy charges are found to have significant effects but the significance of others rate structure effects are generally mixed. The hypotheses of parameter instability are accepted, in a number of cases, across experiments but rejected through time.

Much empirical work has been performed to test the predictions of Hotelling-style models of non-renewable resource production. Disparate, seemingly contradictory results have emerged, some damaging to the predictions of rational models of present value maximization. This paper presents a theoretical model of mining which incorporates the facts that varying qualities of material must be extracted at any time from a deposit, so that a cut-off grade must be determined, and that the extractive sector is embedded in an economy with more than one sector. The model reconciles many of the disparate findings from a rationalist, Hotelling perspective. Empirical results for Canadian gold mining are consistent with the theoretical predictions.

Notions of customer value of service have become increasingly important in utility resource planning, capacity expansion and rate making. In order to design and implement value of service policies, utilities have come to rely upon a variety of customer surveys. Unfortunately, theoretical and empirical analysis suggests that responses to such surveys may be seriously distorted by ‘status quo’ effects. Using both regression and choice-theoretic frameworks, we empirically investigate whether status quo effects arise in a contingent valuation survey addressing the value of service reliability for residential customers. We find substantial status quo effects, which must be explicitly understood and addressed.