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Transforming talent into performance: Efficiency heterogeneity, strategic behavior, and welfare in sports leagues 将人才转化为绩效:效率异质性、战略行为与体育联盟福利
Pub Date : 2025-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100064
Marco Henriques Pereira , Markus Lang
Understanding why some sports clubs consistently outperform others despite similar financial resources remains a central question in sports economics. This paper develops a contest-theoretic model of a sports league in which clubs differ in both their financial capacity and their efficiency in transforming player talent into on-field performance. Each club chooses its optimal level of talent investment under either profit-maximizing or win-maximizing objectives. The model explicitly distinguishes between two types of heterogeneity-market size and efficiency, allowing us to study how these asymmetries jointly shape equilibrium talent demand, competitive balance, and welfare. The results reveal that profit-maximizing clubs may reduce talent investment when efficiency improves, while win-maximizing clubs respond in the opposite direction. Efficiency differences also affect large and small clubs asymmetrically, with small clubs often expanding investment under conditions in which large clubs contract. Welfare implications depend critically on league orientation: in profit-oriented leagues, welfare improves when small clubs are less efficient and large clubs are more efficient, whereas the opposite holds in win-oriented leagues. By integrating contest theory with the literature on club efficiency, the paper demonstrates that efficiency heterogeneity is not inherently detrimental. Under certain conditions, it can yield strategic advantages and even enhance league welfare, offering new insights for both academic research and league policy.
理解为什么在财政资源相似的情况下,一些体育俱乐部的表现总是优于其他俱乐部,仍然是体育经济学的一个核心问题。本文建立了一个体育联盟的竞赛理论模型,其中俱乐部在财政能力和将球员才能转化为场上表现的效率方面存在差异。在利润最大化和收益最大化的目标下,每个俱乐部都会选择自己最优的人才投入水平。该模型明确区分了两种类型的异质性——市场规模和效率,使我们能够研究这些不对称如何共同塑造均衡人才需求、竞争平衡和福利。结果表明,当效率提高时,利润最大化俱乐部会减少人才投入,而收益最大化俱乐部则相反。效率差异对大俱乐部和小俱乐部的影响也是不对称的,小俱乐部往往在大俱乐部收缩的情况下扩大投资。福利影响主要取决于联赛方向:在以利润为导向的联赛中,当小俱乐部效率较低而大俱乐部效率较高时,福利会提高,而在以胜利为导向的联赛中,情况则相反。本文将竞争理论与俱乐部效率研究文献相结合,证明了效率异质性并非天生有害。在一定条件下,它可以产生战略优势,甚至提高联盟福利,为学术研究和联盟政策提供新的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Announcement 2026 Simon Rottenberg Award 公告2026年西蒙·罗滕贝格奖
Pub Date : 2025-11-13 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100062
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引用次数: 0
Do subjective and compensatory scores matter? an empirical analysis of Ski jumping competitions 主观分数和补偿性分数重要吗?跳台滑雪比赛的实证分析
Pub Date : 2025-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100061
Kjetil K. Haugen , Andrew Musau
This paper examines the role of compensatory and subjective scoring elements in determining competition outcomes in ski jumping. Using detailed data from seven seasons of men’s World Cup events (2010/11-2016/17), we decompose final scores into their constituent components: jump distance, style points awarded by judges, wind compensation, and gate compensation. We then simulate alternative ranking systems that exclude one or more components to assess how much they matter for event- and season-level standings. Our results show that jump distance alone explains most of the variation in rankings, and that removing style, wind, or gate points individually leads to only modest statistical changes in aggregate correlations. However, even small positional shifts - often one or two places - can be decisive for professional athletes, affecting prize money, sponsorships, and career trajectories. The findings illustrate a central tension in the design of scoring systems: subjective and compensatory elements may appear marginal in statistical terms but can have substantial consequences for individuals and for perceptions of fairness. By situating ski jumping in the broader economics literature on contests, subjective evaluation, and institutional design, we highlight how this case sheds light on the trade-offs between transparency, fairness adjustments, and competitive incentives in performance evaluation systems.
本文考察了补偿性和主观得分因素在决定跳台滑雪比赛结果中的作用。我们利用世界杯7个赛季(2010/11-2016/17)男子项目的详细数据,将最终得分分解为其组成部分:跳跃距离、裁判的风格积分、风补偿、门补偿。然后,我们模拟排除一个或多个组件的替代排名系统,以评估它们对赛事和赛季级别排名的影响程度。我们的结果表明,跳跃距离单独解释了排名的大部分变化,并且单独去除风格,风或门点只会导致总体相关性的适度统计变化。然而,即使是很小的位置变化——通常是一两个位置——对职业运动员来说也可能是决定性的,影响到奖金、赞助和职业轨迹。这些发现说明了评分系统设计中的一个核心矛盾:主观和补偿因素可能在统计学上显得微不足道,但对个人和对公平的看法可能会产生重大影响。通过将跳台滑雪置于更广泛的关于竞赛、主观评估和制度设计的经济学文献中,我们强调了本案例如何阐明绩效评估系统中透明度、公平调整和竞争性激励之间的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of foreign player absence on domestic player performance: A COVID-19 natural experiment 外援缺阵对国内球员表现的影响——基于COVID-19的自然实验
Pub Date : 2025-10-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100060
Jiang Jin , Di Yang , Yaokai Liu , Lihua He
This paper investigates the influence of foreign players on the performance of domestic players in the Chinese Basketball Association. During the 2019–2020 season, the COVID-19 outbreak disrupted player availability, as some foreign players were unable to return to their teams. This unexpected situation created an exogenous shift in team composition, offering a unique natural experiment to study this dynamic. Our findings reveal that the performance of domestic players, measured by plus-minus values, significantly improved in the absence of foreign players. This result holds across a range of robustness checks. Furthermore, we find that the absence of foreign players led to an improvement in domestic players’ field goal percentage and points per minute. A mechanism analysis, conducted from two perspectives—through Two-Stage Least Squares estimation and by focusing on players whose positions directly overlapped with foreign players—suggests that the increased playing time caused by the absence of foreign players is the primary driver behind the enhanced on-court performance of domestic players.
本文调查了中国篮协外籍球员对国内球员表现的影响。在2019-2020赛季,新冠肺炎疫情扰乱了球员的可用性,因为一些外国球员无法回到他们的球队。这种意想不到的情况造成了团队构成的外生变化,为研究这种动态提供了一个独特的自然实验。我们的研究结果表明,在没有外国球员的情况下,国内球员的表现(以正负值衡量)显著提高。这一结果适用于一系列稳健性检查。此外,我们发现外籍球员的缺席导致了国内球员的投篮命中率和每分钟得分的提高。通过两阶段最小二乘估计和关注与外籍球员位置直接重叠的球员,从两个角度进行的机制分析表明,外籍球员缺席导致的上场时间增加是国内球员场上表现增强的主要驱动因素。
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引用次数: 0
Do team-level calculations support “the idea of WAR”? Implications for Wins production estimation in baseball 团队层面的计算是否支持“战争的想法”?棒球比赛中胜率估算的含义
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100055
Rodney Fort , Finn McMichael , Randal R. Rucker
We derive three propositions describing what we coin “the idea of WAR” from published and online sources—replacement wins, unit contribution, and comparability across position, team, and time. Using a team win production regression model incorporating the three propositions, team-level data from Baseball-Reference (BR-WAR) and FanGraphs (FG-WAR) reject replacement wins and comparability. The unit contribution proposition is rejected for pitcher BR-WAR but not hitter BR-WAR, while the opposite is true for FG-WAR. Hitter and pitcher WAR contributions to wins are not equal to each other for either version of WAR. Finally, the contribution of pitcher FG-WAR to wins exhibits diminishing returns. While our results reject that these two measures adhere completely to the idea of WAR, they do not reject either one as useful measures of player performance. These results are important for sports analytics, the economic estimation of wins production, and a recent Major League Baseball salary arbitration issue.
我们从公开的和在线的资源中得出三个命题来描述我们创造的“战争思想”——替代胜利、单位贡献和跨职位、团队和时间的可比性。使用包含三个命题的团队胜利生产回归模型,来自Baseball-Reference (BR-WAR)和FanGraphs (FG-WAR)的团队级别数据拒绝了替代胜利和可比性。对于投手BR-WAR,单位贡献命题被拒绝,而对于击球手BR-WAR则不被拒绝,而对于FG-WAR则相反。在两个版本的战争中,击球手和投手对胜利的贡献是不相等的。最后,投手FG-WAR对胜场的贡献呈现递减收益。虽然我们的研究结果否定了这两种方法完全符合WAR的理念,但它们并没有否定任何一种方法都是衡量玩家表现的有效方法。这些结果对于体育分析、对胜利产生的经济估计以及最近的美国职业棒球大联盟薪资仲裁问题都很重要。
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引用次数: 0
Review for the beautiful dataset 查看漂亮的数据集
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100057
Alex Krumer , Stefan Szymanski
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引用次数: 0
Is the UEFA champions league fair? 欧洲冠军联赛公平吗?
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100056
Luís Cabral , Shucheng Liao
Is access to the UEFA Champions League based on sporting merit? We test whether a marginally excluded team from domestic league i is expected to perform better than a marginally included team from domestic league j. Using past performance as a predictor of future performance, our answer is a resounding yes. We compute the counterfactual of an access rule based on sporting merit and show that the vast majority of slots would be allocated to top European leagues.
进入欧洲冠军联赛是基于体育成绩吗?我们测试了被排除在国内联赛i之外的球队是否会比被排除在国内联赛j之外的球队表现得更好。用过去的表现来预测未来的表现,我们的答案是肯定的。我们计算了基于体育成绩的准入规则的反事实性,并表明绝大多数席位将分配给欧洲顶级联赛。
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引用次数: 0
Announcement of inclusion of the Sports Economics Review into Scopus index 宣布将《体育经济学评论》纳入Scopus索引
Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100058
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引用次数: 0
Foul Play: The impact of financial incentives on aggression in sports 犯规:体育运动中经济激励对攻击性的影响
Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100053
Jeffrey Cisyk , Pascal Courty , Amin Kouhbor
We examine the impact of match-specific monetary incentives on match outcome and team behavior in the English Premier League. Our findings reveal that higher financial stakes increase the likelihood of a team winning a match while also encouraging more aggressive play: a £1M increase in the expected award from winning a game raises the probability of winning by 1.1 percentage points and results in an expected rise of 0.07 fouls per game. Teams adapt to financial incentives to maximize success in high-stakes games. These results help sports organizations understand the trade-offs in mitigating misconduct while preserving the competitive intensity of the game.
我们研究了英超联赛中特定比赛的货币激励对比赛结果和球队行为的影响。我们的研究结果表明,更高的经济赌注增加了球队赢得比赛的可能性,同时也鼓励了更积极的比赛:赢得一场比赛的预期奖励增加100万英镑,获胜的可能性就会提高1.1个百分点,导致每场比赛的犯规预期增加0.07次。在高风险的比赛中,球队适应经济激励,以最大限度地取得成功。这些结果有助于体育组织了解在保持比赛竞争强度的同时减轻不当行为的权衡。
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引用次数: 0
Creative innovation in golf course architecture and retrospective judgments of quality 高尔夫球场建筑的创造性创新和质量的回顾性判断
Pub Date : 2025-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2025.100054
Daniel Ackerberg , Douglas J. Hodgson
In creative fields, supply is often thought to precede demand, rather than reacting to it, the source of Richard Caves’ influential “nobody knows” property, which is especially strong at points of significant stylistic change. Producers compete to promote new work, often through polemics that demarcate new styles from predominant ones by assigning new meanings to historical styles that are held to possess important meanings that are revived in the new style. This retrospective revaluation of past styles, “reputational entrepreneurship”, is meant to influence preferences of consumers (and thus demand), the efficacity of which may be measurable in some cases; for example, golf course architecture, where periodic magazine rankings of golf courses exist. We empirically evaluate the efficacity of a polemic advanced in the early 1990s by young architects (entrepreneurs in the reputational and professional senses) seeking to advance the reputation of pre-war relative to post-war architecture. We measure changes in consensus judgments through changes in biannual magazine rankings of the 100 Greatest Courses in the United States, and find that the rankings evolved in favor of pre-war as opposed to post-war (1945–1985) courses. We situate our analysis with reference to developments in the golf industry, discursive consecration of specific ideals as to the character of golf itself, and the propagation of the latter via appeals to social distinction. We relate our results to a Bourdieusian model of interdependence of demand and supply in creative fields undergoing major change, as well as to the literature on related questions in the field of conventional architecture, especially the triumph of Postmodernism.
在创意领域,供应通常被认为先于需求,而不是对需求做出反应,这就是理查德•凯夫斯(Richard Caves)那句颇具影响力的“无人知晓”(nobody knows)名言的来源,在风格发生重大变化时,这句话尤其有力。制作人竞相推广新作品,通常是通过争论来区分新风格和主流风格,给那些被认为具有重要意义的历史风格赋予新的意义,而这些意义在新风格中得到了复兴。这种对过去风格的回顾性重新评估,即“声誉创业”,旨在影响消费者的偏好(从而影响需求),其效率在某些情况下可能是可衡量的;例如,高尔夫球场的建筑,有高尔夫球场的定期杂志排名。我们从经验上评估了20世纪90年代初由年轻建筑师(声誉和专业意义上的企业家)发起的一场论战的有效性,这场论战旨在提高战前建筑相对于战后建筑的声誉。我们通过两年一次的杂志对美国100个最伟大球场排名的变化来衡量共识判断的变化,发现排名的演变倾向于战前而不是战后(1945-1985)的球场。我们将我们的分析定位于高尔夫产业的发展,对高尔夫本身特征的具体理想的话语奉献,以及通过呼吁社会区别来传播后者。我们将我们的研究结果与正在发生重大变化的创意领域的供需相互依存的布尔迪乌模型联系起来,以及与传统建筑领域相关问题的文献,特别是后现代主义的胜利。
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Sports Economics Review
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