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‘Good job!’ the impact of positive and negative feedback on performance 干得好!"积极和消极反馈对绩效的影响
Pub Date : 2024-11-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100045
Daniel Goller , Maximilian Späth
We analyze the effect of positive and negative feedback on professional performance. For this, we exploit a unique data source in which quasi-random, naturally occurring variations within subjective ratings serve as positive and negative feedback. Our analysis suggests that receiving positive feedback has a favorable impact on subsequent performance, while negative feedback does not have an effect. These main results are found in two distinct environments and for different cultural backgrounds, experiences, and genders of the feedback recipients. The favorable impact of positive feedback is short-term, repeatable, and stronger for highly relevant tasks.
我们分析了积极和消极反馈对专业绩效的影响。为此,我们利用了一个独特的数据源,将主观评分中自然出现的准随机变化作为积极和消极反馈。我们的分析表明,获得积极反馈会对后续绩效产生有利影响,而消极反馈则没有影响。这些主要结果是在两种不同的环境中,针对不同的文化背景、经历和反馈接受者的性别发现的。积极反馈的有利影响是短期的、可重复的,而且对高度相关的任务影响更大。
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引用次数: 0
Within-game uncertainty of outcome and the demand for professional basketball on television 赛内结果的不确定性与电视对职业篮球的需求
Pub Date : 2024-10-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100044
John Solow , Patrick Reilly , Peter von Allmen
This paper provides one of the first tests of the within-game uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. We examine the relationship between the demand for nationally televised regular season NBA basketball viewing and outcome uncertainty while the games are being played. We use granular television viewing and scoring data and account for the dynamics of television viewing. We find evidence of modest but statistically significant effects of outcome uncertainty on the size of the TV viewing audience which occur largely at the end of the game, supporting the uncertainty of outcome hypothesis. These effects are subject to diminishing marginal returns. We also find evidence of a sizable independent loss of viewers at halftime and the end of games that is unrelated to outcome uncertainty.
本文首次对比赛结果的不确定性假设进行了检验。我们研究了 NBA 篮球比赛进行期间全国电视转播常规赛收视需求与比赛结果不确定性之间的关系。我们使用了细粒度的电视收视和得分数据,并考虑了电视收视的动态变化。我们发现有证据表明,比赛结果的不确定性对电视观众人数的影响不大,但在统计上却很显著,这种影响主要发生在比赛结束时,支持了比赛结果不确定性假说。这些影响的边际收益递减。我们还发现有证据表明,在中场休息和比赛结束时会有相当大的独立观众流失,这与结果的不确定性无关。
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引用次数: 0
Competing against former teammates predicts team victory 与昔日队友较量,预示着团队的胜利
Pub Date : 2024-10-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100043
Satyam Mukherjee , Yun Huang , Brian Uzzi , Noshir Contractor
The small but growing body of research on team vs. team competition focuses on predicting the winner based on multilevel factors, including the team's strength and prior relations among team members within a team. Our research demonstrates the significance and power of prior relations among members between competing teams in predicting the outcome of a contest. Leveraging data over 8 seasons of the Indian Premier League (IPL), we demonstrate the effects of competing against former teammates on a team's victory in IPL matches. If two teams, A and B, are competing in a match, and nA players from A are former teammates of players on B and nB players from B are former teammates of players on A, then if team A has smaller values of nA, it will have a competitive advantage over Team B with a higher value of nB. We call the magnitude of the difference of nA and nB the “ecosystem” factor in predicting performance. Using regression and stochastic network models, we find that the ecosystem factor significantly impacts the outcome of a match. Our findings have implications for franchise owners. While recruiting a player, franchise owners should not rely solely on the player's ability but also leverage the rivalry between former teammates.
关于团队与团队竞争的研究虽然为数不多,但却在不断增加,研究重点是根据多层次因素预测胜负,这些因素包括团队实力和团队内部成员之间的先前关系。我们的研究证明了竞争团队成员之间的先前关系在预测比赛结果方面的重要性和威力。利用印度超级联赛(IPL)8 个赛季的数据,我们证明了与前队友竞争对球队在 IPL 比赛中获胜的影响。如果两支球队(A 和 B)在一场比赛中竞争,A 队中有 nA 名球员是 B 队球员的前队友,B 队中有 nB 名球员是 A 队球员的前队友,那么如果 A 队的 nA 值较小,就会比 nB 值较高的 B 队更具竞争优势。我们将 nA 和 nB 的差值大小称为预测成绩的 "生态系统 "因素。利用回归和随机网络模型,我们发现生态系统因素对比赛结果有显著影响。我们的研究结果对特许经营店主有一定的启示。在招募球员时,专营权所有者不应只依赖球员的能力,还应充分利用前队友之间的竞争关系。
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引用次数: 0
Comparing two methods for testing the efficiency of sports betting markets 比较检验体育博彩市场效率的两种方法
Pub Date : 2024-09-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100042
Tadgh Hegarty, Karl Whelan
Sports betting markets can be considered strongly efficient if expected returns on all possible bets on an event are equal. If this form of efficiency holds, then there is a direct mapping from betting odds into probabilities of outcomes of sporting events. We compare two regression-based methods for testing this form of efficiency that have been used in previous research: One that uses normalized probabilities as the explanatory variable for event outcomes and one that uses the inverse of the decimal odds. We show that the normalized probability method produces good tests of the null hypothesis of strong market efficiency but that the inverse odds method does not, with results biased against finding favorite-longshot bias. We illustrate this finding using large datasets of bets and outcomes for tennis and soccer and also with realistic simulations.
如果对某项赛事的所有可能投注的预期收益都相等,那么体育博彩市场就可以被视为具有很高的效率。如果这种效率形式成立,那么投注赔率就可以直接映射到体育赛事结果的概率。我们比较了之前研究中使用的两种基于回归的方法来测试这种效率形式:一种是使用归一化概率作为赛事结果的解释变量,另一种是使用十进制赔率的倒数。我们的研究表明,归一化概率法可以很好地检验强市场效率的零假设,但赔率倒数法则不然,其结果偏向于发现偏好-长投偏差。我们使用网球和足球的大型投注和结果数据集以及现实模拟来说明这一发现。
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引用次数: 0
Is there a nationality wage premium in European football? 欧洲足球是否存在国籍工资溢价?
Pub Date : 2024-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100040
Alex Farnell , David Butler , Giambattista Rossi , Robert Simmons , David Berri , Esperance Yassine Bamba

We investigate the presence of nationality salary premia in two top European football leagues (the Premier League and Serie A). We uncover a substantial pay premium for South American players (primarily driven by Argentina and Brazil) of between 11 and 15 per cent in magnitude. We investigate possible mechanisms, such as whether these salary effects are driven by new entrants to the league, and whether they are reflected in team attendances and team performance. Fans appear to respond to higher proportions of South American players in England, but not in Italy. We discuss the implications of these results and suggest why potential differences might exist across the leagues.

我们调查了欧洲两大顶级足球联赛(英超联赛和意甲联赛)中是否存在国籍薪酬溢价。我们发现南美球员(主要是阿根廷和巴西球员)的薪酬溢价幅度在 11% 到 15% 之间。我们研究了可能的机制,例如这些薪资效应是否是由新加入联赛的球员驱动的,以及这些效应是否反映在球队的上座率和球队表现上。在英格兰,球迷似乎对较高比例的南美球员做出了反应,但在意大利却没有。我们讨论了这些结果的影响,并提出了联赛间可能存在潜在差异的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Professionals do play Minimax: Revisiting the Nash equilibrium in Major League Baseball 职业球员确实在玩 Minimax:重新审视美国职业棒球大联盟的纳什均衡
Pub Date : 2024-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100039
Jean-François Mercier

We present a game-theoretic model of baseball as a two-by-two normal-form game between pitchers and batters, where batters decide whether to swing or hold, and pitchers choose whether to throw inside or outside the strike zone. We use machine learning to label pitches that have not been swung at. Our approach enables testing of the predictions derived from the Minimax Theorem for both players. The hypotheses of equality of payoffs across actions and the absence of serial correlation hold for the majority of players. Batters exhibit lower swing rates than theoretical predictions, while pitchers tend to throw inside the strike zone more frequently than expected.

我们提出了一个棒球博弈论模型,即投手和击球手之间的二乘二正则表达式博弈,其中击球手决定挥棒还是持球,投手选择投掷打击区内还是打击区外的球。我们使用机器学习来标记未挥棒的投球。我们的方法可以测试从最小最大定理中得出的对双方选手的预测。对于大多数球员来说,不同行动间报酬相等和不存在序列相关性的假设成立。击球手的挥棒率低于理论预测值,而投球手在打击区内投球的频率往往高于预期。
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引用次数: 0
Momentum-stopping: Effects on performance 停止动力:对成绩的影响
Pub Date : 2024-08-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100038
Matías José Gómez Seeber

Does success breed success? Psychological momentum theory suggests that past achievements might influence future performance. However, distinguishing between psychological and strategic momentum — where a player's effort shifts based on relative position — is challenging. In this paper, using a novel dataset from professional Counter-Strike: Global Offensive matches, I focus on technical timeouts. These timeouts don't affect player position but may disrupt psychological momentum. I find that a winning [losing] team with significant momentum sees a 13 [11.7] percentage points increased chance of losing [winning] the following round after calling for such a timeout. This shows that psychological momentum significantly affects performance and that timeouts can reset the momentum.

成功会滋生成功吗?心理动力理论认为,过去的成就可能会影响未来的表现。然而,要区分心理动量和战略动量(即玩家的努力会根据相对位置发生变化)具有挑战性。在本文中,我使用了来自职业《反恐精英:全球攻势》比赛的新数据集:全球攻势》比赛的新数据集,重点研究技术暂停。这些暂停不会影响玩家的位置,但可能会破坏玩家的心理动量。我发现,在要求技术暂停后,势头强劲的获胜 [失败] 队伍在下一轮比赛中失败 [获胜] 的几率会增加 13 [11.7] 个百分点。这说明心理动量对成绩有很大影响,而暂停可以重置动量。
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引用次数: 0
Incentives matter sometimes: On the differences between league and Cup football matches 激励有时很重要:联赛与杯赛的区别
Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100037
Jan C. van Ours , Martin van Tuijl

Economic agents react to incentives, and this holds true for professional football teams as well. Double round-robin and single-match elimination represent two opposite competition regimes, with incentives varying distinctly between them. At the level of individual matches, a single defeat needs not be fatal under a double round-robin regime, unlike in a single-match elimination system. Utilizing data from Dutch professional football from the 2004/05 season to the 2022/23 season, we compare single-match elimination Cup matches with double round-robin league matches, focusing on stadium attendance, match results, and home advantage. Stadium attendance tends to be lower in Cup matches, although the gap narrows in later stages of the Cup tournament, and it eventually disappears. The home advantage is similar in Cup matches and league matches, but when Cup matches extend beyond regular time, the home advantage diminishes. In later stages of the Cup tournament, both during extra time and penalty shootouts, home advantage appears to be virtually absent.

经济行为主体会对激励机制做出反应,职业足球队也是如此。双循环和单场淘汰制代表了两种截然相反的竞争制度,两者之间的激励机制也截然不同。就单场比赛而言,与单场淘汰制不同的是,在双循环制度下,一场失败不一定是致命的。利用荷兰职业足球从 2004/05 赛季到 2022/23 赛季的数据,我们比较了单场淘汰制杯赛和双循环联赛,重点关注球场上座率、比赛结果和主场优势。在杯赛中,球场上座率往往较低,但在杯赛后期,这一差距会逐渐缩小,并最终消失。主场优势在杯赛和联赛中相似,但当杯赛超过常规时间时,主场优势就会减弱。在杯赛后期,无论是加时赛还是点球大战,主场优势似乎都不复存在。
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引用次数: 0
The transfer market for sports players - A contest theory approach 体育运动员的转会市场--一种竞赛理论方法
Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100035
Yizhaq Minchuk

The transfer market for sports players is analyzed using a contest theory approach. A sports team exerts two types of effort in order to attract a player: productive effort, for which the team incurs a cost only if the player signs a contract with them; and persuading effort, for which the team incurs a cost regardless. The findings describe the conditions under which there will be no persuading effort, as well as the impact of persuading effort on productive effort and the contestant's utility.

本文采用竞争理论方法分析了体育运动员的转会市场。运动队为吸引球员会付出两种努力:一种是生产性努力,只有当球员与运动队签订合同时,运动队才会为此付出代价;另一种是说服性努力,无论如何,运动队都会为此付出代价。研究结果描述了没有劝说努力的条件,以及劝说努力对生产性努力和选手效用的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Competitive balance in professional sports: A multi-dimensional perspective 职业体育中的竞争平衡:多维视角
Pub Date : 2024-05-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100034
Levi Bognar , Scott A. Brave , R. Andrew Butters , Kevin A. Roberts

What constitutes competitive balance is a contentious issue in professional sports. We contribute to this debate with a simple framework encapsulating multiple viewpoints of competitive balance and highlight how this framework suggests that there could be an inherent tradeoff along two common dimensions. Using the framework as a lens for comparing North American professional sports leagues, we then demonstrate how important changes over time in the collective bargaining process have influenced the competitive balance of these leagues in different ways. Finally, we discuss and provide descriptive evidence for the influence of differences in non-gate revenue growth across leagues and how it might have affected their competitive balance in recent years. (JEL L83, D63, C23).

什么是竞技平衡是职业体育中一个有争议的问题。我们为这一争论提供了一个简单的框架,囊括了关于竞争平衡的多种观点,并强调了这一框架如何表明在两个共同的维度上可能存在固有的权衡。然后,我们将该框架作为比较北美职业体育联盟的一个视角,说明随着时间的推移,集体谈判过程中的重要变化是如何以不同的方式影响这些联盟的竞争平衡的。最后,我们讨论了各联赛非门票收入增长差异的影响,并提供了描述性证据,说明这种差异如何影响了近年来各联赛的竞争平衡。(JEL L83, D63, C23)。
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引用次数: 0
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Sports Economics Review
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