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Did the Wizards help Washington dodge bullets? 奇才队帮助华盛顿躲过子弹了吗?
Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2024.100026
Brian Meehan, E. Frank Stephenson

This paper looks at crime in Washington D.C. after the Washington Bullets NBA basketball team changed its name to the Washington Wizards in 1997. The team’s owner changed the name because he believed that the Bullets name promoted gun violence. The name change was combined with a team-sponsored community anti-violence campaign in hopes that these changes would reduce gun violence in Washington. We examine the impact of these changes on Washington crime using synthetic control models. Our analysis suggests that the name change and anti-violence campaign had no effect on murder in Washington.

本文探讨了华盛顿特区在 1997 年 NBA 篮球队华盛顿子弹队更名为华盛顿奇才队之后的犯罪情况。球队老板之所以改名,是因为他认为 "子弹 "这个名字助长了枪支暴力。更名与球队发起的社区反暴力运动相结合,希望这些变化能够减少华盛顿的枪支暴力。我们使用合成控制模型研究了这些变化对华盛顿犯罪的影响。我们的分析表明,更名和反暴力运动对华盛顿州的谋杀案没有影响。
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引用次数: 0
A short summary of the first year 第一年的简短总结
Pub Date : 2023-12-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100023
Alex Krumer, Stefan Szymanski
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引用次数: 0
The Thrash to the Onion Patch: Boat-length and the Newport to Bermuda race 激流到洋葱地:船长和纽波特到百慕大的比赛
Pub Date : 2023-11-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100020
Adam Witham , Brian Leite , Teresa Starzecki

We empirically examine the effect of boat length upon the race times in the biennial Newport to Bermuda sailing event. We find that boat length has an economically and statistically significant negative effect upon elapsed times for race participants. Specifically, each foot of boat length relates to a 35-min reduction in elapsed time. We find no similarly significant effects upon the corrected times utilized to determine actual finishing ranks for participating boats, however, which may be indicative of the quality of the handicapping methodology employed by the race sponsors. We further examine the effect of boat domicile upon race times, finding a lack of any disadvantage in terms of elapsed time for non-US boats, while at the same time finding a disadvantage for their corrected time (implying they are handicapped relative to US boats). We subsequently find statistical evidence of an interaction effect between US-domiciled boats and boat length on elapsed times in the regatta. This may suggest evidence in support of the Alchian-Allen effect, where only high-quality non-US boats and crews are “exported” for race participation.

我们在两年一度的纽波特至百慕大帆船比赛中实证检验了船长对比赛时间的影响。我们发现,船的长度有一个经济和统计显著的负面影响,对比赛参与者的流逝时间。具体地说,船长每增加一英尺就意味着缩短35分钟的运行时间。我们发现,对于用于确定参赛船只实际完成排名的修正时间,没有类似的显著影响,然而,这可能表明比赛赞助商采用的限制方法的质量。我们进一步研究了船籍地对比赛时间的影响,发现在非美国船只的经过时间方面缺乏任何劣势,同时发现他们的纠正时间的劣势(意味着他们相对于美国船只是不利的)。我们随后发现统计证据的相互作用的影响,在美国定居的船只和船的长度在赛艇会经过的时间。这可能是支持阿尔奇安-艾伦效应的证据,即只有高质量的非美国船只和船员才会“出口”参加比赛。
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引用次数: 0
Testing a variant of match-level outcome uncertainty using historical data from the European Champion Clubs’ Cup 使用欧洲冠军俱乐部杯的历史数据测试比赛水平结果不确定性的变体
Pub Date : 2023-11-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100022
Barry Reilly

This study empirically tests a version of the match-level uncertainty of outcome hypothesis (UOH) using data from second leg games in the now defunct European Champion Clubs' Cup. The data used cover the playing seasons from its inception in 1955/56 to 1991/92. The context within which the analysis is conducted is deliberately selected to reflect an era when the organization of European soccer was more austere in nature and less affected by the influence of commercialization. The motivation for the focus on second leg games is that these are interpretable as ‘one-off’ sporting contests. This enables the goal difference from the first leg to provide a measure of outcome uncertainty for the second leg match. The empirical analysis yields strong and compelling support for this variant of the UOH.

本研究利用现已停赛的欧洲冠军俱乐部杯次回合比赛的数据,实证检验了一种版本的比赛水平结果不确定性假设(UOH)。所使用的数据涵盖了从1955/56年开始到1991/92年的比赛季节。进行分析的背景是刻意选择的,以反映一个时代,当时欧洲足球的组织性质更严格,受商业化影响的影响更小。关注次回合比赛的动机是,这些比赛可以被解释为“一次性”的体育比赛。这使得第一回合的净胜球差可以作为第二回合比赛结果不确定性的衡量标准。实证分析为UOH的这种变体提供了强有力的有力支持。
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引用次数: 0
Football finance and Covid-19 足球财经与Covid-19
Pub Date : 2023-11-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100021
Mobolaji Alabi, Andrew Urquhart

This study looks at the financial performance of top English football clubs to understand the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. Our analysis focuses on English Premier League (EPL) and English Football League (EFL) clubs that have participated at least once in England’s highest league, the EPL. Using panel data methodology from 36 clubs between 2005 – 2021, we quantify the impact and severity of Covid-19 on top English football clubs’ financial performance. We find statistically significant evidence that profitability deteriorated during the pandemic with EPL clubs more reliant on matchday revenue the most impacted. Both financial stability and indebtedness deteriorated during the pandemic but the deterioration was not statistically significant. EFL clubs were the most impacted by reduced financial stability and increased indebtedness. These findings are vital for football’s regulators as it provides empirical evidence on the stability of the industry and also provides insights football club owners on strategies they can adopt to survive during external shocks to the industry

本研究着眼于英国顶级足球俱乐部的财务表现,以了解Covid-19大流行的影响。我们的分析重点是英超联赛(EPL)和英格兰足球联赛(EFL)中至少参加过一次英格兰最高联赛的俱乐部。利用2005年至2021年间36家俱乐部的面板数据方法,我们量化了Covid-19对英国顶级足球俱乐部财务业绩的影响和严重程度。我们发现有统计学意义的证据表明,在疫情期间,英超俱乐部的盈利能力恶化,更依赖比赛日收入的影响最大。金融稳定性和债务状况在大流行期间都有所恶化,但这种恶化在统计上并不显著。受财务稳定性下降和债务增加影响最大的是EFL俱乐部。这些发现对足球监管机构至关重要,因为它提供了行业稳定性的经验证据,也为足球俱乐部老板提供了在行业外部冲击中生存的策略
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引用次数: 0
The minimum concentration of points in sports leagues without ties 没有平局的体育联赛中的最低积分集中度
Pub Date : 2023-09-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100019
Francisco Triguero-Ruiz , P. Dorian Owen , Antonio Avila-Cano

We analyse the distribution of results that leads to the lowest level of concentration of within-season points, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschman index, in sports leagues where individual matches cannot result in ties. Typically, the minimum concentration level is considered to be when teams have equal shares of points, but this may not always be feasible. We develop appropriate expressions for the minimum concentration measure in such scenarios and evaluate the accuracy of using the equal distribution assumption. The error involved in using this assumption is a decreasing function of the number of teams in the league and increases the closer the level of competition is to perfect balance. Use of the incorrect minimum concentration can lead to substantial overestimation of the normalized concentration index.

我们分析了在个人比赛无法导致平局的体育联赛中,通过赫芬达尔-赫希曼指数衡量,导致赛季内积分集中度最低的结果分布。通常,当团队得分相等时,会认为是最低集中度,但这可能并不总是可行的。我们为这种情况下的最小浓度测量开发了适当的表达式,并评估了使用等分布假设的准确性。使用这一假设所涉及的误差是联盟中球队数量的递减函数,竞争水平越接近完美平衡,误差就越大。使用不正确的最小浓度可能导致对标准化浓度指数的严重高估。
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引用次数: 0
Economic analysis of the 12th man: Should the fans be paid? 第12人的经济分析:球迷应该得到报酬吗?
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100017
Luc Arrondel , Jean-Pascal Gayant , Jean-François Laslier

The paper provides a theoretical sports league model to study the pricing of tickets. It considers the trade-off between maximizing match day revenues, through high prices, and maximizing the support of the most demonstrative fans, through low prices. These spectators, the “ultras” contribute to the competitive level of the club along with team-level talent, and therefore indirectly increase the number of victories, hence the revenue from TV rights. We model the role of effusive spectators and show that, in a non-cooperative Nash equilibrium, it may be optimal for the club to subsidize their presence in order to take full advantage of the 12th man effect.

本文提供了一个体育联盟门票定价的理论模型。它考虑了通过高价格最大化比赛日收入和通过低价格最大化最具示范性球迷的支持之间的权衡。这些观众,即“超级观众”,与球队级别的人才一起,为俱乐部的竞争水平做出了贡献,因此间接增加了胜利的次数,从而增加了电视转播权的收入。我们对热情观众的角色进行了建模,并表明,在非合作纳什均衡中,俱乐部为充分利用第12人效应而补贴他们的存在可能是最优的。
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引用次数: 0
Do sporting events amplify airborne virus transmission? Causal evidence from US professional team sports 体育赛事会放大空气传播病毒吗?美国职业团队运动的因果证据
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100013
Alexander Cardazzi , Brad R. Humphreys , Jane E. Ruseski , Brian P. Soebbing , Nicholas Watanabe

We analyze the impact of professional sporting events on local seasonal influenza mortality to develop evidence on the role played by spectator attendance at sporting events in airborne virus transmission. Results from a difference-in-differences model applied to data from a sample of US cities that gained new professional sports teams over the period 1962–2016 show that the presence of games in these cities increased local influenza mortality by between 4% and 24%, depending on the sport, relative to cities with no professional sports teams and relative to mortality in those cities before a new team arrived. Influenza mortality fell in cities with teams in some years when work stoppages occurred in sports leagues. Health policy decisions, and decisions about the subsidization of professional sports, should take into account the role played by sporting events in increasing airborne virus transmission and local influenza and coronavirus mortality.

我们分析了职业体育赛事对当地季节性流感死亡率的影响,以证明观众参加体育赛事在空气传播病毒中所起的作用。将差异中的差异模型应用于1962年至2016年期间获得新职业运动队的美国城市样本的数据,结果显示,根据运动的不同,这些城市的比赛使当地流感死亡率增加了4%至24%,相对于没有专业运动队的城市,以及相对于新球队到来之前这些城市的死亡率。有些年份,当体育联盟出现停工时,有球队的城市的流感死亡率有所下降。卫生政策决定以及关于职业体育补贴的决定,应考虑到体育赛事在增加空气传播病毒以及当地流感和冠状病毒死亡率方面所起的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of rule changes on the MLS SuperDraft 规则变更对MLS超级选秀的影响
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100016
Sean Hellingman , Zilin Wang , Mary Thompson

During the period of 2006–2008 Major League Soccer made a series of rule changes regarding roster structures and how clubs obtained players. These changes include: creating Designated Player roster spots, increasing the number of international roster spots, and allowing clubs to sign players from their academies. This work examines the impact of those rule changes on the MLS careers of players selected in the MLS SuperDraft. Statistical methods to compare two groups and regression models are used to examine possible impacts. There is a significant decrease in the probability of players selected after the rule changes going on to play competitive games in MLS. These results may impact how clubs choose to allocate resources for player recruitment.

在2006年至2008年期间,美国职业足球大联盟(Major League Soccer)对球员名册结构和俱乐部获得球员的方式进行了一系列规则更改。这些变化包括:创建指定球员名单名额,增加国际球员名单名额的数量,并允许俱乐部从他们的学院签下球员。这项工作考察了这些规则的变化对美国职业足球大联盟超级选秀球员职业生涯的影响。使用统计方法比较两组,并使用回归模型来检查可能的影响。规则改变后,被选中参加美国职业足球大联盟竞技比赛的球员的概率显著降低。这些结果可能会影响俱乐部如何选择为球员招募分配资源。
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引用次数: 0
Has financial fair play changed European football? 金融公平竞争改变了欧洲足球吗?
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100018
Ariela Caglio , Sébastien Laffitte , Donato Masciandaro , Gianmarco Ottaviano

In 2011 UEFA, the governing body of European football, introduced the Financial Fair Play Regulation (FFPR), consisting of a set of financial restraints to be met by clubs as a prerequisite for participation to its competitions. The aim of the FFPR was to introduce financial discipline into the clubs’ decision-making processes, and ultimately protect the long-term viability of the European football industry. The reform was criticized because of possible unintended detrimental consequences. In particular, Peeters and Szymanski (2014) provided a model-based ex-ante simulation analysis showing that the reform would increase the profitability of clubs, but also tilt the competitive balance in favor of the top teams, thus reducing the interest of fans and investors as one of the main attractions in sports is precisely that the best team does not always win. Exploiting an original dataset between the seasons 2007–2008 and 2019–2020, we provide an ex-post econometric evaluation of the effects of the introduction of the FFPR revealing causal evidence that largely vindicates those ex-ante predictions.

2011年,欧洲足球管理机构欧足联推出了《金融公平竞争条例》(FFPR),其中包括俱乐部必须满足的一系列金融限制,作为参加其比赛的先决条件。FFPR的目的是将财务纪律引入俱乐部的决策过程,并最终保护欧洲足球行业的长期生存能力。改革受到了批评,因为可能会产生意想不到的有害后果。特别是,Peeters和Szymanski(2014)提供了一个基于模型的事前模拟分析,表明改革将提高俱乐部的盈利能力,但也会使竞争平衡向顶级球队倾斜,从而降低球迷和投资者的兴趣,因为体育运动的主要吸引力之一正是最好的球队并不总是获胜。利用2007-2008年和2019-2020年季节之间的原始数据集,我们对引入FFPR的影响进行了事后经济计量评估,揭示了在很大程度上证明这些事前预测正确的因果证据。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Sports Economics Review
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