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Do sporting events amplify airborne virus transmission? Causal evidence from US professional team sports 体育赛事会放大空气传播病毒吗?美国职业团队运动的因果证据
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100013
Alexander Cardazzi , Brad R. Humphreys , Jane E. Ruseski , Brian P. Soebbing , Nicholas Watanabe

We analyze the impact of professional sporting events on local seasonal influenza mortality to develop evidence on the role played by spectator attendance at sporting events in airborne virus transmission. Results from a difference-in-differences model applied to data from a sample of US cities that gained new professional sports teams over the period 1962–2016 show that the presence of games in these cities increased local influenza mortality by between 4% and 24%, depending on the sport, relative to cities with no professional sports teams and relative to mortality in those cities before a new team arrived. Influenza mortality fell in cities with teams in some years when work stoppages occurred in sports leagues. Health policy decisions, and decisions about the subsidization of professional sports, should take into account the role played by sporting events in increasing airborne virus transmission and local influenza and coronavirus mortality.

我们分析了职业体育赛事对当地季节性流感死亡率的影响,以证明观众参加体育赛事在空气传播病毒中所起的作用。将差异中的差异模型应用于1962年至2016年期间获得新职业运动队的美国城市样本的数据,结果显示,根据运动的不同,这些城市的比赛使当地流感死亡率增加了4%至24%,相对于没有专业运动队的城市,以及相对于新球队到来之前这些城市的死亡率。有些年份,当体育联盟出现停工时,有球队的城市的流感死亡率有所下降。卫生政策决定以及关于职业体育补贴的决定,应考虑到体育赛事在增加空气传播病毒以及当地流感和冠状病毒死亡率方面所起的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Impacts of rule changes on the MLS SuperDraft 规则变更对MLS超级选秀的影响
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100016
Sean Hellingman , Zilin Wang , Mary Thompson

During the period of 2006–2008 Major League Soccer made a series of rule changes regarding roster structures and how clubs obtained players. These changes include: creating Designated Player roster spots, increasing the number of international roster spots, and allowing clubs to sign players from their academies. This work examines the impact of those rule changes on the MLS careers of players selected in the MLS SuperDraft. Statistical methods to compare two groups and regression models are used to examine possible impacts. There is a significant decrease in the probability of players selected after the rule changes going on to play competitive games in MLS. These results may impact how clubs choose to allocate resources for player recruitment.

在2006年至2008年期间,美国职业足球大联盟(Major League Soccer)对球员名册结构和俱乐部获得球员的方式进行了一系列规则更改。这些变化包括:创建指定球员名单名额,增加国际球员名单名额的数量,并允许俱乐部从他们的学院签下球员。这项工作考察了这些规则的变化对美国职业足球大联盟超级选秀球员职业生涯的影响。使用统计方法比较两组,并使用回归模型来检查可能的影响。规则改变后,被选中参加美国职业足球大联盟竞技比赛的球员的概率显著降低。这些结果可能会影响俱乐部如何选择为球员招募分配资源。
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引用次数: 0
Has financial fair play changed European football? 金融公平竞争改变了欧洲足球吗?
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100018
Ariela Caglio , Sébastien Laffitte , Donato Masciandaro , Gianmarco Ottaviano

In 2011 UEFA, the governing body of European football, introduced the Financial Fair Play Regulation (FFPR), consisting of a set of financial restraints to be met by clubs as a prerequisite for participation to its competitions. The aim of the FFPR was to introduce financial discipline into the clubs’ decision-making processes, and ultimately protect the long-term viability of the European football industry. The reform was criticized because of possible unintended detrimental consequences. In particular, Peeters and Szymanski (2014) provided a model-based ex-ante simulation analysis showing that the reform would increase the profitability of clubs, but also tilt the competitive balance in favor of the top teams, thus reducing the interest of fans and investors as one of the main attractions in sports is precisely that the best team does not always win. Exploiting an original dataset between the seasons 2007–2008 and 2019–2020, we provide an ex-post econometric evaluation of the effects of the introduction of the FFPR revealing causal evidence that largely vindicates those ex-ante predictions.

2011年,欧洲足球管理机构欧足联推出了《金融公平竞争条例》(FFPR),其中包括俱乐部必须满足的一系列金融限制,作为参加其比赛的先决条件。FFPR的目的是将财务纪律引入俱乐部的决策过程,并最终保护欧洲足球行业的长期生存能力。改革受到了批评,因为可能会产生意想不到的有害后果。特别是,Peeters和Szymanski(2014)提供了一个基于模型的事前模拟分析,表明改革将提高俱乐部的盈利能力,但也会使竞争平衡向顶级球队倾斜,从而降低球迷和投资者的兴趣,因为体育运动的主要吸引力之一正是最好的球队并不总是获胜。利用2007-2008年和2019-2020年季节之间的原始数据集,我们对引入FFPR的影响进行了事后经济计量评估,揭示了在很大程度上证明这些事前预测正确的因果证据。
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引用次数: 1
Willingness to pay for hosting the Tour de France 愿意为举办环法自行车赛付费
Pub Date : 2023-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100014
Christian Gjersing Nielsen , Arne Feddersen

This paper uses the contingent valuation method to estimate the willingness to pay for hosting the Tour de France start 2022 in Denmark. Using a dichotomous choice format with a one-off tax payment, we estimate a total economic value between €12.8–26.0 million for the 2.788 million Danish households, with €14.7 as our preferred estimate. Spike models reveal that the likelihood of voting in favor of an earmarked tax to retain the Tour de France in Denmark decreases with the physical distance from the route. Moreover, we find a negative effect of living in one of the host municipalities (start or finish of a stage), ceteris paribus. This indicates that if non-use values are higher for residents living in a host municipality, they are offset by the negative externalities associated with hosting.

本文使用或有估值方法来估计2022年在丹麦举办环法自行车赛的支付意愿。使用一次性纳税的二分法选择格式,我们估计278.8万丹麦家庭的总经济价值在1280万至2600万欧元之间,14.7欧元是我们的首选估计。Spike模型显示,投票支持保留丹麦环法自行车赛专用税的可能性随着距离路线的物理距离而降低。此外,我们发现居住在主办城市之一(一个阶段的开始或结束)会产生负面影响。这表明,如果居住在东道市的居民的非使用价值较高,则会被与东道相关的负外部性所抵消。
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引用次数: 0
The age-performance relationship for a cognitive-intensive task: Empirical evidence from chess grandmasters 认知密集型任务的年龄-表现关系:国际象棋特级大师的经验证据
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100010
Adriaan Kalwij , Kris De Jaegher

To gain insight into the age-performance relationship (APR) for cognitively demanding tasks, we analyse the APR for the task of playing chess from a theoretical and empirical perspective. We set up a game-theoretic model showing that for risk-neutral players who are homogeneous in their linear payoffs, the APR can be estimated with either players' game outcomes or their Elo ratings. This result is empirically substantiated with data on outcomes of games played at an annual international chess tournament (1970–2021), and with players' Elo ratings. Further, the findings support the estimation of the APR with Elo ratings using a model that controls for player fixed effects and period random effects, which is also in accordance with the theoretical model. Next, we show that on average chess performance peaks in grandmasters’ early-thirties and declines thereafter. Implications of the findings for a labour market characterised by an increase in cognitively demanding jobs and individuals working longer are discussed.

为了深入了解认知要求任务的年龄-表现关系(APR),我们从理论和实证的角度分析了下棋任务的APR。我们建立了一个博弈论模型,表明对于线性收益同质的风险中性玩家,APR可以用玩家的游戏结果或他们的Elo评级来估计。这一结果得到了年度国际象棋锦标赛(1970-2021)比赛结果数据和棋手Elo评分的实证证实。此外,研究结果支持使用一个控制球员固定效应和周期随机效应的模型来估计具有Elo评级的APR,这也与理论模型一致。接下来,我们发现,平均而言,国际象棋的表现在大师们30岁出头达到峰值,之后有所下降。讨论了这些发现对劳动力市场的影响,劳动力市场的特点是认知要求高的工作增加,个人工作时间更长。
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引用次数: 0
Fair travel distances in tournament schedules: A cooperative game theory approach 比赛日程中的公平旅行距离:一种合作博弈论方法
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100011
Ondrej Osicka , Mario Guajardo

The most studied problem in sports scheduling, so-called traveling tournament problem (TTP), aims at finding schedules minimizing the total distance traveled by the teams. While minimizing all the traveling between games is efficient from the overall perspective, it overlooks the distribution of the travel among the teams. Consequently, some teams may end up better than others with respect to their individual goals, an imbalance which may affect teams’ often-limited resources or preparedness for the games. This article adopts a cooperative game theory framework to obtain tournament schedules where the distances traveled by the teams are allocated according to fairness criteria. The approach consists of three steps. First, the scheduling problem is reformulated as a transferable utility game. Second, by means of well-established allocation methods, an ideal distance distribution among the teams is determined. Third, we introduce fairness measures to produce a schedule which approximately resembles the ideal distribution. We also discuss the case of not pursuing fairness, but rather a compromise between fairness and minimum total distance. We illustrate the approach by a numerical example in one of the classic TTP data instances.

运动日程安排中研究最多的问题,即所谓的巡回赛问题(TTP),旨在找到使团队总行程最小化的日程安排。虽然从整体角度来看,尽量减少比赛之间的所有旅行是有效的,但它忽略了旅行在球队之间的分布。因此,一些球队在个人目标方面可能会比其他球队更好,这种不平衡可能会影响球队通常有限的资源或比赛准备。本文采用合作博弈论框架来获得比赛时间表,其中团队行进的距离是根据公平标准分配的。该方法包括三个步骤。首先,将调度问题重新表述为可转移效用博弈。其次,通过完善的分配方法,确定了团队之间的理想距离分布。第三,我们引入了公平措施来产生一个近似于理想分布的时间表。我们还讨论了不追求公平,而是在公平和最小总距离之间达成妥协的情况。我们通过一个经典TTP数据实例中的数值例子来说明该方法。
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引用次数: 0
Competitiveness in Formula One 一级方程式赛车的竞争力
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2022.100007
Ronald Peeters, Dennis Wesselbaum

We define a measure of competitiveness that is based on full rankings and corrects for partitioning of the parties in exogenously defined clusters. We use the measure to study the change in competitiveness of Formula One racing during the period 1993–2019.

我们定义了一种基于完整排名的竞争力衡量标准,并纠正了外部定义集群中政党的划分。我们使用该指标来研究1993-2019年期间一级方程式赛车竞争力的变化。
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引用次数: 0
Doping and uncertainty of outcome 兴奋剂和结果的不确定性
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2022.100002
Kjetil K. Haugen

This paper demonstrates, by simple classical game theory, that the claim by Savulescu et al. (2004) of a safer and fairer sport with legalized doping is a highly unlikely outcome. This result, with added arguments related to adverse effects on both demand and supply for the sports product, should hopefully affect the debate on legalization of performance-enhancing drugs. The Nash equilibrium obtained in the analysis predicts more doping, and maybe more importantly, use of more dangerous performance-enhancing drugs. As a consequence, a legalization of performance.enhancing drugs may threaten the actual existence of professional sports markets.

本文用简单的经典博弈论证明了Savulescu等人。(2004年)一项更安全、更公平的运动与合法的兴奋剂是极不可能的结果。这一结果,再加上对体育产品供需的不利影响,有望影响关于提高成绩药物合法化的辩论。分析中获得的纳什均衡预测会有更多的兴奋剂,也许更重要的是,会使用更危险的提高成绩的药物。因此,兴奋剂合法化可能会威胁到职业体育市场的实际存在。
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引用次数: 0
Ghost games and ex-post viewing preferences for the English Premier League: Evidence from YouTube highlights 幽灵游戏和英超联赛赛后观看偏好:来自YouTube亮点的证据
Pub Date : 2023-06-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2023.100012
David Butler, Robert Butler

We ask if the move to play elite football (soccer) matches without spectators during the COVID-19 pandemic impacted online viewership. Using a new dataset from YouTube, we depart from the traditional ex ante approach to modelling football demand and investigate streaming preferences for known results in football. Our data is collected in real-time and considers English Premier League matches from 2019 to 2021 played both in front of crowds and behind closed doors. The results indicate increased viewership for matches played without crowds. The findings also allow a deeper understanding of direct demand for football as we identify motivators, including different pre-game and in-game characteristics as well as scheduling effects, that make fans curious to view content after the fact. The research adds to our understanding of the effects of the pandemic on fan viewer behaviour and speaks to broadcasting firms developing digital extension strategies.

我们询问在新冠肺炎大流行期间在没有观众的情况下进行精英足球比赛是否影响了在线观众。使用YouTube上的一个新数据集,我们偏离了传统的事前建模足球需求的方法,并调查了足球中已知结果的流媒体偏好。我们的数据是实时收集的,考虑了2019年至2021年在观众面前和闭门进行的英超比赛。结果表明,在没有观众的情况下进行的比赛收视率有所上升。这些发现还使我们能够更深入地了解对足球的直接需求,因为我们确定了激励因素,包括不同的赛前和赛中特征以及日程安排效果,这些因素让球迷好奇地想在比赛结束后观看内容。这项研究增加了我们对疫情对粉丝观众行为影响的理解,并为广播公司制定数字推广战略提供了信息。
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引用次数: 1
Estimated costs of injuries in college and high school female sports 大学和高中女子体育运动中受伤的估计费用
Pub Date : 2023-03-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.serev.2022.100006
Ray C. Fair , Christopher Champa

Injury rates in thirteen U.S. women’s college sports and four U.S. girls’ high school sports are examined in this paper. The sports are categorized as high injury (H) or low injury (L) and differences in injury rates between the two are examined. Estimates are presented of the injury savings that would result if the H sports were changed to have injury rates similar to those in the L sports.

本文调查了13个美国女子大学体育项目和4个美国女子高中体育项目的损伤率。这些运动被分为高损伤(H)或低损伤(L),并考察了两者损伤率的差异。如果H运动项目的受伤率与L运动项目的相似,则会对受伤节省进行估计。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Sports Economics Review
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