Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice最新文献

This article focuses on individual credit evaluation of commercial bank. The records of individual credit include both numerical and nonnumeric data. Decision tree is a good solution for this kind of issue. This year, the algorithm C4.5 of decision tree become popular, but C5.0 algorithm is still undergoing. In this article, we do some deep research on C5.0 algorithm by embedding “boosting” technology in cost matrix and cost-sensitive tree to establish a new model for individual credit evaluation of Commercial Bank. We apply our new model on evaluating the individual credit records of a German bank, and compared results of the adjusted decision tree model and the original one. The comparison shows that the adjusted decision tree model is more precise.

According to the connotation of the human-oriented, comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development concept, this article constructed the comprehensive evaluation index system on the basis of the authoritative organization high-frequency indices. Combining the current situation of statistics with the observable principle in complex systems, the index system is formed through five hierarchy rules, such as economy, environment, society, the human comprehensive development, and science and technology. The scientific development evaluation model based on the circulating revision was built, and then the model was applied to 10 sub-provincial cities level administrative regions of China. The contribution of this article came from the following two aspects. First, the principle of people-oriented concept was implemented by bringing Per Capita Green GDP, Gross National Happiness. The connotation of the scientific development, comprehensive, coordinated, and sustainable development concept was reflected through the index of Per Capita Green Space and Synthetic Energy Consuming Per 10000 RMB of GDP. Second, this article evaluated the scientific development of 10 sub-provincial cities using circulating revision and found the main factors affecting their scientific development.

In order to solve the scheduling problems of mixed batch and continuous processes, continuous time was discretized, and an improved differential evolution algorithm was developed. A new chromosome representation was proposed, considering capacity constraints. Also, a new crossover method and a new mutation method were proposed based on the new chromosome representation. The value of the crossover probability CR was obtained by using the logistic chaotic map method, and the selection operator was improved to promote the global search ability. The results of the simulation indicate that the model and the method are feasible.

The evaluation of rainbow options on two average prices (labeled as rainbow Asian options) is a computational problem arising from the inherent complexities of multifactor path-dependent options. In this article, the pricing model of rainbow Asian options on two dividend -paying assets was constructed on the basis of the Ito lemma and the arbitrage-free principle. With the boundary conditions, an analytical formula for the call option with geometric average was derived and also call-put parity relationship on the proposed option was provided. Overwhelming numerical evidence indicates that the reduction variate technique with the help of the above analytical solution dramatically improves the accuracy of the simulated price of rainbow Asian option with arithmetic average. Moreover, this study will pave a novel way to copy with the family of Asian options pricing.

This study explored the construction of the university optimal human resource management practices (OHRMP) and the impact of OHRM on organizational performance. A sample of 700 staff from 7 universities in China was used for data analysis by structural equation modeling. The result indicated that (i) OHRMP were composed of staff recruitment and allocation, motivation mechanism, participation, and performance management, and (ii) organizational performance was composed of staff satisfaction, teaching and research performance, society satisfaction, and financial performance. Further, the result also showed that (i) staff recruitment and allocation have significantly a positive impact on staff satisfaction and society satisfaction, and (ii) motivation mechanism has significantly a positive impact on teaching and research performance and financial performance, and (iii) participation has significantly a positive impact on society satisfaction; organizational performance management has significantly a positive impact on staff satisfaction. Implications for management theory and practice are discussed.

Earthquake disasters are typical giant open complex systems. In this article, the system analyzes the structure features from its framework, motion, and space-time. Its entirety characteristics' such as open, complexity, high dimension, uncertainty and emergence, are discussed. Based on the discussion of the earthquake disaster system's components, elements and influencing factors, the Hall for Workshop of Meta-synthetic Engineering, which is composed of a specialist system, a machine system, and a knowledge system, is constructed to analyze earthquake disaster, and then designs the meta-synthesis analyzing processes, with the following steps: starting from experts' experience and data statistics to obtain perceptual cognition, after that, building models to reach rational cognition, and then, re-practicing through computer operation, eventually, via experts' assessment, data processing, and the modifying model to achieve goals on recognition. Based on the analysis and assessment of well-known earthquakes, earthquake risk, bearing capacity of region disaster, essential information of earthquake, scope of disaster influencing, geological environmental security, carrying capacity of resource environmental, economical influence, social influence, and the benefit of disaster reduction are found to be the essential contents of assessment of earthquake disaster. The framework of the meta-synthesis assessment of earthquake disaster systems and the “men, machine, methods, techniques, data” based on meta-synthesis assessment system are constructed.

In view of the operation rule of retail loans and the characteristics of default factors affecting default behavior, the authors put forward non-linear proportional default model with time-dependent variables based on the Cox model. This model takes into account the non-linear relationship among variables and time-dependent variables while calculating the retail loan default probability in China's commercial banks, which will make the model to be in line with its objective reality better. The result demonstrates this model is scientific and feasible in practical application in China's commercial banks through empirical analysis and example analysis.

Based on lattice-ordered preference structure, in this article, we show that the elements in the same layer are incomparable with each other under lattice order relation, and further, all subsets consisting of the elements in the same layer are subject to chain structure under the original preference relation. Hence, we propose a decision-making method to classify the lattice order alternatives according to the above chain structure. This method shows its high feasibility in practice.

As to the inherent simulant error of grey Verhulst model, this article presents unbiased grey Verhulst model. Recursive solutions are given under two initial conditions of the unbiased model. The results show the complete coincidence of the prediction and simulation to the original data of S-shaped curve generated form has achieved. The unbiased grey Verhulst model presented in this article has not only completely eliminated the inherent simulant error of the traditional model, but also avoided the jumping errors from the differential equation to differential equation in traditional grey modeling. Case analysis shows that the simulation and prediction accuracy in traditional modeling has been significantly improved by unbiased grey Verhulst model.

Putting forward the Maximum Probability Principle for the return of total assets portfolio larger than 0, hedging decision-making model of incremental and existing portfolio based on the maximum return probability is set up. The contributions and innovations of the model are as follows: First, through the analysis of the central limit theorem, it comes into two basic conditions which can ensure the maximum probability of total assets portfolio return greater than 0 during the hedging: maximum return per unit risk of total assets portfolio and the return rate of total assets portfolio larger than 0. Second, by identifying incremental portfolio hedge ratio, the maximum probability for the return of total assets portfolio greater than 0 can be obtained. How to decide the hedge ratio on the new portfolio to make the probability maximum of total assets profit larger than 0 can be solved, whereas the hedge ratio of existing portfolio is invariability. Third, by building the function of non-linear risk overlap between the incremental and existing assets portfolio, the problem of how to ensure the risk of the total assets portfolio while allocating incremental hedging asset has been solved.