Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice最新文献

The security of power consumption demand is an essential issue in maintaining a rapid economic development in China. Owing to the advantages such as the robustness and favorable estimation performances, the semiparametric model and nonparametric models have obtained wide popularity. In this article, based on the semiparametric and nonparametric models, a new estimation model is created, and the linear and nonlinear effects of influencing the power consumption are investigated. The results indicate that the economic growth, population, and economic structure play a vital role in the power consumption; the impact of the power price index on the electricity consumption is small, which can-not offset rapid growth of the electricity consumption that the economic growth, population and economic structure bring; the energy utilization efficiency still stays at a low level in China.

In this article, with adaptive and bounded rational dynamics, the dynamic bidding system models, including the cases of two and three power producers, are presented, respectively, based on Cournot game. The stability of Nash equilibriums are analyzed analytically, after which the stable regions, bifurcations, and chaotic stranger attractors are displayed by numerical simulations. In addition, chaos control of dynamic bidding systems are analyzed with state delayed feedback control method, and numerical simulations indicate that Nash equilibrium of oligopoly bidding dynamics is maintainable if suitable control variables and parameters are chosen.

A new scheme of sliding mode control (SMC) for a class of non-linear systems is presented. The parameters of switching function and exponential reaching law are designed with modified particle swarm intelligent optimization (MPSO) by combining SMC with MPSO, which accelerates the reaching velocity and improves the dynamic behavior and robustness. It can not only track the desired trajectory quickly and accurately, but also eliminate the high-frequency chattering inherent in sliding mode control. The presented scheme is applied to the inverted pendulum system and the simulation results show its validity.

we classify a bank's 15595 clients into 9 groups by their ages and bank balances, and then each group is classified further into two parts, namely active and inactive clients. The 1939 service channels, which are used in the transaction are divided into three transaction worlds for each group of clients: local world, the weak nonlocal world, and the strong nonlocal world. The service channels in regular use are defined as its local world, the weak nonlocal world, and the strong nonlocal world are the channels, which are used occasionally, but the use probability of the former is higher than the latter. For the bipartite weighted network, which consists of 15595 clients and 1939 service channels, we propose an evolving model, which has the mechanism of different active degrees of clients, preferential attachment in the local world, random attachment in the weak nonlocal world by higher probability and in the strong nonlocal world by lesser probability, to discuss the network generating mechanism. Finally, by the method of numerical simulation, we validate the generating mechanism. The work is significant for the generating mechanism study of the bipartite weighted network related to the geographical location and the management of bank service channels.

Aimed at the problems of slow pace of convergence and easy subsidence precocious problem, a new fast evolution algorithm is proposed for constrained multiobjective optimization problems. A crossover operator, which searches simultaneously from feasible and infeasible solution space is designed. Combining constraint condition and objective, a new partial-order relation for comparing individual is introduced. Thus, a new Niche computation method for maintaining diversity of population is suggested and repeat search is avoided using searched solution space. Based on all these, a novel effective evolution algorithm for global optimization is proposed and its convergence is proved. Compared with the current MOEAs, the simulation results show that this algorithm can rapidly converge at global Pareto solutions, and can maintain diversity of population.

In view of the study on the conflict degree among the evidence from different sources made by Weiru Liu, this article improves his analysis by coming up with the analysis of consistency degree among the evidence. In this research, the conflict and the harmony in the analysis of the degree of conflict (ADCF) are developed into the consistency, the conflict, the nonconflict and inconsistency in the analysis of the degree of consistency (ADCS). On this basis, the general mathematical and practical expressions of the consistency degree are proposed by resorting to the mass of the combined belief assigned to the empty-set before the normalization and the distance between betting commitments of evidence, and the impact of the consistency degree on the applicability of Dempster's combination rule is analyzed. The representative numerical examples and the comparison of the ADCF with the ADCS demonstrate that the ADCS provides a strongly robust and reasonable indicator on the applicability of Dempster's combination rule.

Outsourcing E-government services helps governments to overcome barriers, such as lacking skilled IT Staff and limited financial resources. There are some models for the government to outsource its E-government services. This article analyzes one of such outsourcing model; building-owning-operation (BOO) using a transaction cost theory approach. By modeling the outsourcing strategy, the article argues about the maximum E-government benefit and the maximum profit of the vendor. It also discusses the expected E-government benefit that is affected by the vendor's some degree of shirking and the incentive policy which the government can adopt to remove the attractiveness of shirking to the vendor. The approach used in this article provides both of the contracting parties with a strategy and techniques for analyzing some complex issues when they deal with outsourcing decision-problems.

System of fuzzy equations is a widespread problem in many applied fields, such as production planning, resource management, optimization decision, and so on, and the variation description of fuzzy variables is the bottle neck problem of realizing solution operation. Starting from the structure-feature of fuzzy information and the essential characteristic of fuzzy decision, this paper proposes the concept of quasi-linear fuzzy number, and establishes a solution model based on metric and uncertainty restriction for system of fuzzy equations (denoted by FESM-M+U, for short); further, on the basis of quasi-linear fuzzy number and principle operation strategy, then gives a genetic algorithm named by FGA-QL+PO; finally, considers its convergence using Markov chain theory and analyzes its performance through an example. All these indicate that, FGA-QL+PO can not only effectively reflect decision consciousness, but has good global convergence, and be suitable for all systems of fuzzy equations, so it can be widely used in many problems.

A simultaneous approach that incorporates inventory control decision into facility location model is proposed, which is used to solve the multi-commodity logistics network design problem. Based on the assumption that the stochastic demands of the retailers are normal distributed, a non-linear mixed integer programming model that simultaneously described the inventory decision and the facility location decision is presented, in which the objective is to minimize the total cost that including location costs, inventory costs, and transportation costs under the certain service level. The combined simulated annealing (CSA) algorithm is developed to solve the problem. The model and effectiveness of the algorithm are clarified by the computational experiments.

This paper establishes the non-linear functional relationship of risk overlap of incremental and existing portfolios. The decision-making model for incremental loan portfolio is based on how total loan portfolio optimization is built. The contributions and characteristics lie in three aspects. The first contribution is to put forward the scientific problem of controlling total portfolio risk based on risk overlapping of incremental and existing portfolios while putting out an incremental portfolio. The whole control of incremental and existing portfolios is the top issue, which not only exploits new idea about optimal allocation and control of financial assets but also alters traditional idea merely considering the risk of incremental portfolios. The second contribution is to establish the non-linear function relation of overlap between incremental and existing portfolios. Based on the theory of non-linear overlap of total portfolio, the function expression connecting total portfolio with incremental and existing portfolios is built. The third contribution is the controlling of total risk after overlapping between the existing and incremental portfolios risk. It solves the problem of how to control and optimize total portfolio risk while allocating an incremental portfolio.