Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR) with time-varying parameters and volatility we investigate monetary policy in the United States, in particular its interaction with the formation of inflation expectations and the linkages between monetary policy, inflation expectations and the behaviour of CPI inflation. We use Livingston Survey data for expected inflation, measured at a bi-annual frequency, actual inflation, unemployment and a nominal interest rate to estimate the VAR and show the significant changes that have occurred in the responses of these variables to monetary policy shocks or to shocks to expected and actual inflation. In so doing, we generalize the analysis undertaken by Leduc, Sill and Stark (2007) to allow for a more nuanced and detailed look at questions such as the impact of different chairmanship regimes at the Federal Reserve Board, the role of good policy versus good luck, and second round inflation effects. While some of the questions asked have a relatively long history, the methods used to undertake our investigations are very new, and the time-varying structure allows us to offer a more detailed picture. In using these methods we also undertake a substantial technical discussion to unearth the appropriateness of the TVP-SVAR models hitherto estimated in the literature, in particular the role of the choice of priors in determining the outcome of the estimations. As we discuss in the paper, this is an important issue which has remained rather hidden in the discussions surrounding the estimation of TVP-SVARs, yet may have a substantially important role to play in determining the results obtained.
{"title":"The Changing Role of Expectations in US Monetary Policy: A New Look Using the Livingston Survey","authors":"Sadia Malik, A. Banerjee","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2038820","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2038820","url":null,"abstract":"Using a Bayesian structural vector autoregression (TVP-SVAR) with time-varying parameters and volatility we investigate monetary policy in the United States, in particular its interaction with the formation of inflation expectations and the linkages between monetary policy, inflation expectations and the behaviour of CPI inflation. We use Livingston Survey data for expected inflation, measured at a bi-annual frequency, actual inflation, unemployment and a nominal interest rate to estimate the VAR and show the significant changes that have occurred in the responses of these variables to monetary policy shocks or to shocks to expected and actual inflation. In so doing, we generalize the analysis undertaken by Leduc, Sill and Stark (2007) to allow for a more nuanced and detailed look at questions such as the impact of different chairmanship regimes at the Federal Reserve Board, the role of good policy versus good luck, and second round inflation effects. While some of the questions asked have a relatively long history, the methods used to undertake our investigations are very new, and the time-varying structure allows us to offer a more detailed picture. In using these methods we also undertake a substantial technical discussion to unearth the appropriateness of the TVP-SVAR models hitherto estimated in the literature, in particular the role of the choice of priors in determining the outcome of the estimations. As we discuss in the paper, this is an important issue which has remained rather hidden in the discussions surrounding the estimation of TVP-SVARs, yet may have a substantially important role to play in determining the results obtained.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115037675","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Through panel estimates using OECD country-industry statistics, this paper aims to clarify the determinants of rent creation and the mechanisms of rent sharing, and the role of market regulations in these processes. The empirical analysis is carried out in two steps. The first explains the rent creation process. For each country-industry-year observation, the size of rents, measured by the value added price relative to the GDP price, is assumed to depend solely on direct anti-competitive regulations on services and goods. The second step explains the rent sharing process. Three destinations of rents are distinguished for each country-industry-year observation: upstream industries, capital and labour. The main empirical findings are as follows. Regarding the rent creation, direct anti-competitive regulations are associated with a very significant rise in rent size. Concerning the rent sharing, the capital share in value added appears to i) increase with rent size, decrease with anti-competitive regulation in upstream sectors and increase with the industry specific output gap; ii) decrease with the national output gap, increase with the national employment rate and decrease with employment protection regulation; iii) increase with the interaction of rent size and the unemployment rate and decrease with the interaction of rent size and employment protection regulations. These results confirm the existence of three destinations for rents. They also show that the magnitude of each destination depends on the market power of its beneficiary. All these results are robust to a variety of sensitivity checks.
{"title":"Rent Building, Rent Sharing - A Panel Country-Industry Empirical Analysis","authors":"Philippe Askenazy, G. Cette, P. Maarek","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2022926","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2022926","url":null,"abstract":"Through panel estimates using OECD country-industry statistics, this paper aims to clarify the determinants of rent creation and the mechanisms of rent sharing, and the role of market regulations in these processes. The empirical analysis is carried out in two steps. The first explains the rent creation process. For each country-industry-year observation, the size of rents, measured by the value added price relative to the GDP price, is assumed to depend solely on direct anti-competitive regulations on services and goods. The second step explains the rent sharing process. Three destinations of rents are distinguished for each country-industry-year observation: upstream industries, capital and labour. The main empirical findings are as follows. Regarding the rent creation, direct anti-competitive regulations are associated with a very significant rise in rent size. Concerning the rent sharing, the capital share in value added appears to i) increase with rent size, decrease with anti-competitive regulation in upstream sectors and increase with the industry specific output gap; ii) decrease with the national output gap, increase with the national employment rate and decrease with employment protection regulation; iii) increase with the interaction of rent size and the unemployment rate and decrease with the interaction of rent size and employment protection regulations. These results confirm the existence of three destinations for rents. They also show that the magnitude of each destination depends on the market power of its beneficiary. All these results are robust to a variety of sensitivity checks.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"26 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133837810","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Reserve requirements are a prominent policy instrument in many emerging countries. The present study investigates the circumstances under which reserve requirements are an appropriate policy tool for price or financial stability. We consider a small open economy model with sticky prices, financial frictions and a banking sector that is subject to legal reserve requirements and compute optimal interest rate and reserve requirement rules. Overall, our results indicate that reserve requirements can support the price stability objective only if financial frictions are important and lead to substantial improvements if there is a financial stability objective. Contrary to a conventional interest rate policy, reserve requirements become more effective when there is foreign currency debt.
{"title":"Reserve Requirements for Price and Financial Stability - When are They Effective?","authors":"C. Glocker, Pascal Towbin","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2008665","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2008665","url":null,"abstract":"Reserve requirements are a prominent policy instrument in many emerging countries. The present study investigates the circumstances under which reserve requirements are an appropriate policy tool for price or financial stability. We consider a small open economy model with sticky prices, financial frictions and a banking sector that is subject to legal reserve requirements and compute optimal interest rate and reserve requirement rules. Overall, our results indicate that reserve requirements can support the price stability objective only if financial frictions are important and lead to substantial improvements if there is a financial stability objective. Contrary to a conventional interest rate policy, reserve requirements become more effective when there is foreign currency debt.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"45 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127011790","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.
{"title":"The European Way Out of Recession","authors":"F. Bec, Othman Bouabdallah, L. Ferrara","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1992906","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1992906","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a two-regime Bounce-Back Function augmented Self-Exciting Threshold AutoRegression (SETAR) which allows for various shapes of recoveries from the recession regime. It relies on the bounce-back effects first analyzed in a Markov-Switching setup by Kim, Morley and Piger [2005] and recently extended by Bec, Bouabdallah and Ferrara [2011a]. This approach is then applied to post-1973 quarterly growth rates of French, German, Italian, Spanish and Euro area real GDPs. Both the linear autoregression and the standard SETAR without bounce-back effect null hypotheses are strongly rejected against the Bounce-Back augmented SETAR alternative in all cases but Italy. The relevance of our proposed model is further assessed by the comparison of its short-term forecasting performances with the ones obtained from a linear autoregression and a standard SETAR. It turns out that the bounce-back models one-step ahead forecasts generally outperform the other ones, and particularly so during the last recovery period in 2009Q3-2010Q4.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115791684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
A large part of the term structure literature interprets the first underlying factors as a level factor, a slope factor, and a curvature factor. In this paper we consider factor models interpretable as a level factor model, a level and a slope factor model, respectively. We prove that such models are compatible with no-arbitrage restrictions and the positivity of rates either under rather unrealistic conditions on the dynamic of the short term interest rate, or at the cost of explosive long-term interest rates. This introduces some doubt on the relevance of the level and slope interpretations of factors in term structure models.
{"title":"A Term Structure Model with Level Factor Cannot Be Realistic and Arbitrage Free","authors":"S. Dubecq, C. Gouriéroux","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1992904","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1992904","url":null,"abstract":"A large part of the term structure literature interprets the first underlying factors as a level factor, a slope factor, and a curvature factor. In this paper we consider factor models interpretable as a level factor model, a level and a slope factor model, respectively. We prove that such models are compatible with no-arbitrage restrictions and the positivity of rates either under rather unrealistic conditions on the dynamic of the short term interest rate, or at the cost of explosive long-term interest rates. This introduces some doubt on the relevance of the level and slope interpretations of factors in term structure models.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"15 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131024916","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Risk aversion and uncertainty are often both at play in market price determination, but it is empirically challenging to disentangle one from the other. In this paper we set up a theoretical model particularly suited for opaque over-the-counter markets that is shown to be empirically tractable. Based on high frequency data, we thus propose an evaluation of risk aversion and uncertainty inherent to the government bond markets in the euro area between 2007 and 2011. We particularly examine the impact of the European Central Bank Securities Markets Programme [SMP] implemented in May 2010 and re- activated in August 2011 to ease the pressure on the European sovereign bond markets. We show how this programme has killed market uncertainty but raised risk aversion for all countries except Greece in a risk-pooling mechanism: this can therefore weaken the impact of market interventions over the long-term.
{"title":"Risk Aversion and Uncertainty in European Sovereign Bond Markets","authors":"J. Idier, Valère Fourel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1955933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1955933","url":null,"abstract":"Risk aversion and uncertainty are often both at play in market price determination, but it is empirically challenging to disentangle one from the other. In this paper we set up a theoretical model particularly suited for opaque over-the-counter markets that is shown to be empirically tractable. Based on high frequency data, we thus propose an evaluation of risk aversion and uncertainty inherent to the government bond markets in the euro area between 2007 and 2011. We particularly examine the impact of the European Central Bank Securities Markets Programme [SMP] implemented in May 2010 and re- activated in August 2011 to ease the pressure on the European sovereign bond markets. We show how this programme has killed market uncertainty but raised risk aversion for all countries except Greece in a risk-pooling mechanism: this can therefore weaken the impact of market interventions over the long-term.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121785863","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Estimates of the Nairu generally suffer from a large uncertainty, which can be reduced by adopting a bivariate framework and assuming that shifts of the Phillips curve share a common trend with the unemployment rate. We consider in this paper if this common trend assumption is empirically relevant or not for seven economies over the sample 1973-2010. First, it appears that the Nairu can substantially differ from the unemployment trend. Second, relaxing the common trend assumption improves the fit of the inflation equation. Third, this assumption is necessary for getting an important reduction of uncertainty in a bivariate framework.
{"title":"Measuring the Nairu: A Complementary Approach","authors":"Marie-Elisabeth de la Serve, Matthieu Lemoine","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1924678","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1924678","url":null,"abstract":"Estimates of the Nairu generally suffer from a large uncertainty, which can be reduced by adopting a bivariate framework and assuming that shifts of the Phillips curve share a common trend with the unemployment rate. We consider in this paper if this common trend assumption is empirically relevant or not for seven economies over the sample 1973-2010. First, it appears that the Nairu can substantially differ from the unemployment trend. Second, relaxing the common trend assumption improves the fit of the inflation equation. Third, this assumption is necessary for getting an important reduction of uncertainty in a bivariate framework.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114372861","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In this paper, we present a general discrete-time affine framework aimed at jointly modeling yield curves associated with different debtors. The underlying fixed-income securities may differ in terms of credit quality and/or in terms of liquidity. The risk factors follow conditionally Gaussian processes, with drifts and variance-covariance matrices that are subject to regime shifts described by a Markov chain with (historical) non-homogenous transition probabilities. While flexible, the model remains tractable. In particular, bond prices are given by quasi-explicit formulas. Various numerical examples are proposed, including a sector-contagion model and credit-rating modeling.
{"title":"Default, Liquidity and Crises: An Econometric Framework","authors":"A. Monfort, Jean-Paul Renne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1911881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1911881","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we present a general discrete-time affine framework aimed at jointly modeling yield curves associated with different debtors. The underlying fixed-income securities may differ in terms of credit quality and/or in terms of liquidity. The risk factors follow conditionally Gaussian processes, with drifts and variance-covariance matrices that are subject to regime shifts described by a Markov chain with (historical) non-homogenous transition probabilities. While flexible, the model remains tractable. In particular, bond prices are given by quasi-explicit formulas. Various numerical examples are proposed, including a sector-contagion model and credit-rating modeling.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"72 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121466771","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We investigate the wage-setting behavior of French companies using an ad-hoc survey conducted specifically for this study. Our main results are the following. i) Wages are changed infrequently. The mean duration of wage contracts is one year. Wage changes occur at regular intervals during the year and are concentrated in January and July. ii) We find a lower degree of downward real wage rigidity and nominal wage rigidity in France compared to the European average. iii) About one third of companies have an internal policy to grant wage increases according to inflation. iv) When companies are faced with adverse shocks, only a partial response is transmitted into prices. Companies also adopt cost-cutting strategies. The wage of newly hired employees plays an important role in this adjustment.
{"title":"Wage-Setting Behavior in France: Additional Evidence from an Ad-Hoc Survey","authors":"J. Montornès, Jacques-Bernard Sauner-Leroy","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1619188","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1619188","url":null,"abstract":"We investigate the wage-setting behavior of French companies using an ad-hoc survey conducted specifically for this study. Our main results are the following. i) Wages are changed infrequently. The mean duration of wage contracts is one year. Wage changes occur at regular intervals during the year and are concentrated in January and July. ii) We find a lower degree of downward real wage rigidity and nominal wage rigidity in France compared to the European average. iii) About one third of companies have an internal policy to grant wage increases according to inflation. iv) When companies are faced with adverse shocks, only a partial response is transmitted into prices. Companies also adopt cost-cutting strategies. The wage of newly hired employees plays an important role in this adjustment.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-10-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129581246","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Several recent papers are devoted to the examination of the central banker's behaviour in an uncertain economic environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as an illustration of their effects within an analytical framework. In particular, it shows that depending on the type of uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different. Retaining an ad hoc loss function - discretionary choice - in place of an endogenous loss function - choice consistent with the structural parameters - can involve considerable welfare losses.
{"title":"Central Banker's Behaviour in an Uncertain Environment","authors":"S. Avouyi-Dovi, Jean‐Guillaume Sahuc","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1666731","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1666731","url":null,"abstract":"Several recent papers are devoted to the examination of the central banker's behaviour in an uncertain economic environment. This paper proposes, from a central banker's point of view, a synthesis of the main sources of uncertainty as well as an illustration of their effects within an analytical framework. In particular, it shows that depending on the type of uncertainty and the choice of the selected loss function, the recommendations for monetary policy can be noticeably different. Retaining an ad hoc loss function - discretionary choice - in place of an endogenous loss function - choice consistent with the structural parameters - can involve considerable welfare losses.","PeriodicalId":101534,"journal":{"name":"Banque de France Research Paper Series","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114331887","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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