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The Roof is on Fire: Wildfires' Effect on Housing Prices 屋顶着火了:野火对房价的影响
Pub Date : 2019-12-12 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3545603
Victor Sierra
Regression analyses have been commonly applied to studying the relationships between wildfires and housing prices in local markets. My study conducts a regression analysis on a panel of local markets using county-level data. It contributes to climate and housing literature by estimating the impact of wildfires on housing prices across the Western United States using a robust least squares regression. Most models estimate wildfire effects on housing prices using direct data from wildfire activities or acres burned due to wildfire as their variables of interest. Wildfire activity data is not easily accessible on the county-level; thus, this model utilizes average annual maximum temperatures to measure changes in climate over time which exacerbate and contribute to more frequent wildfire activities. (Westerling et al., 2007). My study finds that as the average maximum temperature increases within a county, the housing prices will generally decrease in value. The results of these effects are found to be statistically significant. Specifically, one percentage point increase in the growth rate of average maximum temperature reduces the growth rate of housing sales price by an average of 0.149 percentage point. These results can provide policymakers and researchers more information about land use in wildfire-prone areas and the impact wildfires have on housing markets.
回归分析通常用于研究野火与当地市场房价之间的关系。我的研究使用县级数据对当地市场面板进行回归分析。它通过使用稳健的最小二乘回归估计野火对美国西部房价的影响,为气候和住房文献做出贡献。大多数模型使用野火活动的直接数据或野火烧毁的面积作为感兴趣的变量来估计野火对房价的影响。在县一级很难获得野火活动数据;因此,该模型利用年平均最高温度来测量气候随时间的变化,这些变化加剧并导致更频繁的野火活动。(Westerling et al., 2007)。我的研究发现,随着县内平均最高气温的升高,房价普遍会下降。这些影响的结果在统计上是显著的。其中,平均最高气温增速每提高1个百分点,住房销售价格增速平均降低0.149个百分点。这些结果可以为政策制定者和研究人员提供更多关于野火易发地区土地利用以及野火对住房市场影响的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Government Assisted Programs and Unemployment Reduction in Developing Economies: A Study of Nigeria and Ghana 发展中经济体的政府援助计划与减少失业:以尼日利亚和加纳为例
Pub Date : 2019-12-07 DOI: 10.32327/ijmess/8.4.2019.18
Prof Edwin Agwu
This paper sets out to comparatively analyze various programs developed by the governments of Nigeria and Ghana towards alleviating unemployment. The inadequacies which have bedeviled these government assisted programs and their consequent failures warrant a review and reconsideration. The research employed qualitative case method with interviews as tools for data collection. Findings revealed a plethora of evidential facts with respect to perception of entrepreneurship in these countries which hinged on challenges such as inadequate funding, lack of requisite trainings, dearth of entrepreneurship education as well as the enabling environments. Most obvious among these challenges are the complete lack of governmental supports for the programs they propagated leading to the failure of various employment alleviation programs. This paper recommends the enactment of clear-cut policies by the governments under the leadership of a specialized ministry (ministry for entrepreneurship). Furthermore, a review and inclusion of entrepreneurship in the academic curriculum at all levels of the educational system will endear students to entrepreneurship studies. Finally, a holistic support of the organized private sectors in achieving a quantifiable target of full-fledged entrepreneurs within a decade will assist in unemployment reduction.
本文旨在比较分析尼日利亚和加纳政府为缓解失业而制定的各种方案。困扰这些政府援助项目的不足之处以及随之而来的失败,值得我们进行审查和重新考虑。本研究采用定性案例法,以访谈为资料收集工具。调查结果揭示了这些国家对企业家精神的看法方面的大量证据事实,这些事实取决于诸如资金不足、缺乏必要的培训、缺乏企业家精神教育以及有利的环境等挑战。在这些挑战中,最明显的是政府对他们宣传的项目完全缺乏支持,导致各种就业缓解项目的失败。建议政府在专门部门(创业部)的领导下制定明确的政策。此外,审查创业精神并将其列入各级教育系统的学术课程,将使学生对创业精神的研究更感兴趣。最后,全面支持有组织的私营部门在十年内实现成熟企业家的可量化目标,将有助于减少失业。
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引用次数: 3
Disclosure and Competition for Capital 资本披露与竞争
Pub Date : 2019-12-06 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3402345
Stephanie F. Cheng, Christine Cuny, Hao Xue
Ownership segmentation in the municipal bond market gives rise to competition among local issuers for a limited supply of capital. We consider the disclosure implications of this competition for capital, using Moody’s 2010 recalibration of the municipal rating scale. The recalibration placed lowly upgraded issuers at a disadvantage relative to their highly upgraded peers within the same market segment. We develop a model in which two municipal bond issuers compete for investors’ capital by choosing bond yields. The model predicts the issuer that is disadvantaged by the recalibration is more likely to improve its disclosure to better compete with its advantaged peer if (i) the rating upgrade that its peer receives is higher and (ii) competition for capital is fiercer. Empirically, we find that the disadvantaged issuers provide more and timelier financial disclosures after the recalibration. This improvement in disclosure quality increases in the extent of the issuer’s disadvantage, arises only if we consider peers with whom the issuer directly competes for capital, and is pronounced when the local capital supply is constrained. Our analytical and empirical analyses support the idea that a competitive disadvantage in raising capital in segmented markets can motivate issuers to improve disclosure quality. This paper was accepted by Brian Bushee, accounting.
市政债券市场的所有权分割导致地方发行人争夺有限的资金供应。我们使用穆迪2010年重新校准的市政评级规模来考虑这种资本竞争对披露的影响。在同一细分市场中,评级重新调整使得评级较低的发行人相对于评级较高的同行处于不利地位。我们开发了一个模型,其中两个市政债券发行人通过选择债券收益率来争夺投资者的资本。该模型预测,如果:(1)同业获得的评级提升越高,且(2)对资金的竞争越激烈,处于再校准不利地位的发行人更有可能改善其信息披露,以更好地与处于有利地位的同业竞争。实证研究发现,调整后弱势发行人提供的财务信息披露更多、更及时。这种披露质量的改善增加了发行人的劣势程度,只有在我们考虑与发行人直接竞争资本的同行时才会出现,并且在当地资本供应受到限制时才会明显。我们的分析和实证分析支持这样一种观点,即在细分市场中筹集资金的竞争劣势可以激励发行人提高披露质量。这篇论文被会计Brian Bushee接受。
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引用次数: 2
Does Equalizing Assets Spur Development? Evidence From Large-Scale Land Reform in Peru 资产均等化能刺激发展吗?秘鲁大规模土地改革的证据
Pub Date : 2019-12-02 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3668577
Michael Albertus, Bogdan G. Popescu
Many scholars point to landholding inequality as a root cause of the “Great Divergence” between rich and poor countries over the last few centuries. Large landowners who fear being eclipsed by the masses or rival industrial elites and seek to preserve social and economic rents under-invest in public goods, block rural-urban migration, and keep peasants poor and subservient. By eliminating large landowners and enabling new policy initiatives, extensive land reform holds potential to vastly and directly improve peasant livelihoods, facilitate human capital formation, and enhance economic and social mobility. We demonstrate that this failed to occur in Peru despite a sweeping land reform that redistributed half of all private land to peasants. Using original localized land reform data and a geographic regression discontinuity design that exploits unevenness in reform implementation, we show that greater land reform intensity in Peru generated more poverty and stunted human development. This occurred because land reform encouraged rural demographic stasis, generated widespread land informality and property rights instability, and reduced political competitiveness. Although the government’s distortionary management of post-reform cooperatives certainly did not maximize their development potential, evidence suggests that Peru’s land reform failed to promote development because of broader inherent features of the reform.
许多学者指出,土地占有不平等是过去几个世纪贫富国家“大分化”的根本原因。大地主担心被大众或与之竞争的工业精英所取代,并寻求保持社会和经济租金,对公共产品投资不足,阻碍城乡移民,并使农民贫穷和屈从。通过消除大地主和实施新的政策举措,广泛的土地改革有可能大大直接改善农民生计,促进人力资本形成,增强经济和社会流动性。我们证明,尽管秘鲁进行了全面的土地改革,将所有私有土地的一半重新分配给了农民,但这种情况并未发生。利用原始的地方土地改革数据和利用改革实施不均匀性的地理回归不连续设计,我们发现秘鲁更大的土地改革强度会导致更多的贫困和阻碍人类发展。这是因为土地改革鼓励农村人口停滞不前,造成了广泛的土地非正规和产权不稳定,并降低了政治竞争力。虽然政府对改革后合作社的扭曲管理肯定没有最大限度地发挥其发展潜力,但有证据表明,秘鲁的土地改革未能促进发展,是因为改革具有更广泛的内在特征。
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引用次数: 5
Health Equity in Housing: Evidence and Evidence Gaps 住房卫生公平:证据和证据差距
Pub Date : 2019-11-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3490008
S. Burris, Katie Moran-McCabe, Nadya Prood, K. Blankenship, Angus Corbett, A. Gutman, Bethany Saxon
This report is the third in a series of reports exploring the role of law in housing equity and innovative uses of law to improve health equity through housing. The reports are based on extensive literature scans and semi-structured interviews with people who are taking action in housing policy and practice. The full series includes: Report I: A Vision of Health Equity in Housing; Report II: Legal Levers for Health Equity in Housing: A Systems Approach; Report III: Health Equity in Housing: Evidence and Evidence Gaps; Report IV: Creative People and Places Building Health Equity in Housing; Report V: Governing Health Equity in Housing; and Report VI: Health Equity through Housing: A Blueprint for Systematic Legal Action. This report outlines what we know and don’t know about the impacts of 30 legal levers, and how they are influencing health equity in housing. It takes a “cold-eyed view�? to wipe the slate of misconceptions and unwarranted confidence in existing legal levers, to help us better structure future efforts as the experiments they are. This report reviews not only the existing evidence for the levers, but clearly outlines the lingering questions we still have about how these legal levers are impacting health — setting the stage for our recommendations coming in a later report.
本报告是探讨法律在住房公平方面的作用和创新利用法律通过住房改善卫生公平的一系列报告中的第三份。这些报告是基于广泛的文献扫描和对正在住房政策和实践中采取行动的人的半结构化采访。完整的系列报告包括:报告一:住房卫生公平愿景;报告二:促进住房卫生公平的法律手段:系统办法;报告三:住房卫生公平:证据和证据差距;报告四:创造性的人和地方在住房中建立卫生公平;报告五:管理住房保健公平;报告六:通过住房实现卫生公平:系统法律行动蓝图。本报告概述了我们对30种法律杠杆的影响所知道和不知道的情况,以及它们如何影响住房卫生公平。它采取一种“冷眼旁观”的观点。为了消除对现有法律杠杆的误解和毫无根据的信心,为了帮助我们更好地将未来的努力作为实验来组织。本报告不仅审查了这些杠杆的现有证据,而且清楚地概述了我们仍然存在的关于这些法律杠杆如何影响健康的悬而未决的问题——为我们在以后的报告中提出建议奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
How Reliant are Older Americans on State and Local Government Pensions? 美国老年人对州和地方政府养老金的依赖程度如何?
Pub Date : 2019-11-18 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3489348
Philip Armour, M. Hurd, S. Rohwedder
State and local government pension plans cover about 19.5 million participants, and many participants are heavily reliant on these pensions for retirement income. Most of these plans, however, are underfunded. Based on data from the Health and Retirement Study, we examined the lifetime work histories of those observed at ages 67 to 72 in 2004, 2008, or 2014. Seventy-seven percent of single persons and 61 percent of couple households had never worked for state or local (SL some of the cuts are paid for by reduced taxes; and the affected households will bequeath less.
州和地方政府的养老金计划覆盖了大约1950万参与者,许多参与者严重依赖这些养老金作为退休收入。然而,这些计划大多资金不足。根据健康与退休研究的数据,我们研究了2004年、2008年和2014年67岁至72岁人群的一生工作经历。77%的单身人士和61%的夫妻家庭从未为州或地方政府工作过(注1),其中一些削减是通过减税来支付的;受影响的家庭留下的遗产也会减少。
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引用次数: 1
Poverty Traps and Disaster Insurance in a Bi-Level Decision Framework 双层决策框架下的贫困陷阱与灾害保险
Pub Date : 2019-11-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3515648
Raimund M. Kovacevic, W. Semmler
In this paper, we study mechanisms of poverty traps that can occur after large disaster shocks. Our starting point is a stylized deterministic dynamic model with locally increasing returns to scale possibly generating multiple equilibria paths with finite upper equilibrium. The deterministic dynamics is then overlayed by random dynamics where catastrophic events happen at random points of time. The number of events follows a Poisson process, whereas the proportional capital losses (given a catastrophic event) are beta distributed. In a setup with fixed insurance premium per unit of insured capital, a fraction of the capital might be insured, and this fraction may change after each event. We seek for an optimal strategy with respect to the insured fraction. Falling below the instable equilibrium of the deterministic dynamics introduces the possibility of ending up in a poverty trap after the disaster shocks. We show that the trapping probability (over an infinite time horizon) is equal to one when the stable upper equilibrium of the deterministic dynamics is finite. This is true regardless of the chosen amount of insured capital. Optimization then is done with the expected discounted capital after the next catastrophic event as the objective. Our model may also be useful to assess risk premia and creditworthiness of borrowers when a sequence of shocks at uncertain times and of uncertain size occurs.
在本文中,我们研究了大型灾害冲击后可能出现的贫困陷阱的机制。我们的出发点是一个程式化的确定性动态模型,该模型局部收益随比例递增,可能产生具有有限上限均衡的多个均衡路径。然后,确定性动力学被随机动力学覆盖,其中灾难性事件在随机时间点发生。事件的数量遵循泊松过程,而资本损失的比例(给定灾难性事件)是贝塔分布的。在单位保险资本的固定保险费的设置中,一部分资本可能被保险,而这一部分在每次事件后可能会发生变化。我们寻求关于保险部分的最优策略。如果低于确定性动态的不稳定平衡,就有可能在灾害冲击之后陷入贫困陷阱。我们证明了当确定性动力学的稳定上平衡是有限时,捕获概率(在无限时间范围内)等于1。无论选择多少保险资本,这都是正确的。然后以下一次灾难性事件后的预期贴现资本为目标进行优化。当在不确定的时间和规模发生一系列冲击时,我们的模型也可能对评估借款人的风险溢价和信誉有用。
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引用次数: 7
The Impact of Expanding Public Health Insurance on Safety Net Program Participation: Evidence from the ACA Medicaid Expansion 扩大公共健康保险对社会安全网计划参与的影响:来自ACA医疗补助扩大的证据
Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/W26504
L. Schmidt, Lara D. Shore-Sheppard, Tara Watson
The expansion of public insurance eligibility that occurred with the Affordable Care Act (ACA) Medicaid expansions may have spillover effects to other public assistance programs. We explore the impact of the ACA on two large safety net programs: the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP). We use a county border-pair research design, examining county-level administrative measures of EITC and SNAP participation in contiguous county pairs that cross state lines where the county on one side of the border experienced the Medicaid expansion and the county on the other side did not. This approach allows us to focus narrowly on differences arising from the ACA Medicaid expansion choice, implicitly controlling for local economic trends that could affect safety net participation. Our results suggest that the Medicaid expansion increased participation in SNAP, and possibly in the EITC, in counties that expanded relative to nearby counties that did not expand. We corroborate and extend these results using individual level data from the American Community Survey (ACS). Our results show that access to one safety net program may increase take-up of others.
随着《平价医疗法案》(ACA)医疗补助计划的扩大,公共保险资格的扩大可能会对其他公共援助计划产生溢出效应。我们探讨了ACA对两大安全网计划的影响:劳动所得税抵免(EITC)和补充营养援助计划(SNAP)。我们使用县边界对研究设计,检查跨州的相邻县对中EITC和SNAP参与的县级行政措施,边界一侧的县经历了医疗补助扩张,而另一侧的县没有。这种方法使我们能够狭隘地关注ACA医疗补助扩大选择所产生的差异,隐含地控制可能影响安全网参与的当地经济趋势。我们的研究结果表明,医疗补助扩张增加了SNAP的参与,也可能增加了EITC的参与,这些县相对于附近没有扩张的县进行了扩张。我们使用来自美国社区调查(ACS)的个人水平数据来证实和扩展这些结果。我们的研究结果表明,获得一个安全网计划可能会增加其他安全网计划的使用率。
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引用次数: 15
Food and Social Security at the Margins: The Parhaiyas of Jharkhand 边缘的食品和社会保障:贾坎德邦的帕尔海亚
Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3540956
A. Somanchi
A recent survey of all Particularly Vulnerable Tribal Group (PVTG) households in two blocks of Jharkhand reveals that their existence remains precarious due to disrupted livelihoods, limited access to education and other public services, and continued exploitation. The public distribution system has become an important source of support for them: most PVTG households have ration cards and receive the bulk of their monthly food rations. Social security pensions also help, but exclusion rates are higher and pension payments have recently been disrupted by Aadhaar-related problems, as have a range of other schemes. In spite of these useful social security measures, food insecurity remains common among PVTGs: more than 40 per cent of households reported that some members had slept hungry ‘a few times’ or ‘many times’ during the three months preceding the survey.
最近对贾坎德邦两个街区的所有特别脆弱部落群体(PVTG)家庭的调查显示,由于生计中断,获得教育和其他公共服务的机会有限,以及持续的剥削,他们的生存仍然不稳定。公共分配系统已成为支持他们的一个重要来源:大多数PVTG家庭都有配给卡,并领取他们每月的大部分口粮。社会保障养老金也有帮助,但排斥率更高,养老金支付最近因与阿达哈尔有关的问题而中断,其他一系列计划也是如此。尽管有这些有用的社会保障措施,但粮食不安全在pvtg中仍然很普遍:40%以上的家庭报告说,在调查前的三个月里,一些成员“几次”或“多次”饿着肚子睡觉。
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引用次数: 1
The Welfare Magnet Hypothesis: Evidence from an Immigrant Welfare Scheme in Denmark 福利磁石假说:来自丹麦移民福利计划的证据
Pub Date : 2019-11-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26454
Ole Agersnap, A. Jensen, H. Kleven
We study the effects of welfare generosity on international migration using reforms of immigrant welfare benefits in Denmark. The first reform, implemented in 2002, lowered benefits for non-EU immigrants by about 50 percent, with no changes for natives or EU immigrants. The policy was later repealed and reintroduced. Based on a quasi-experimental research design, we find sizable effects: the benefit reduction reduced the net flow of immigrants by about 5,000 people per year, and the subsequent repeal of the policy reversed the effect almost exactly. The implied elasticity of migration with respect to benefits equals 1.3. This represents some of the first causal evidence on the welfare magnet hypothesis. (JEL F22, H53, I38, J15)
本文以丹麦的移民福利改革为例,研究了福利慷慨对国际移民的影响。2002年实施的第一次改革将非欧盟移民的福利降低了约50%,对本国人和欧盟移民没有任何改变。这一政策后来被废除又重新引入。基于准实验研究设计,我们发现了相当大的影响:福利削减使每年的移民净流入量减少了约5000人,随后政策的废除几乎完全扭转了这种影响。移民的隐含弹性相对于福利等于1.3。这代表了福利磁石假说的第一批因果证据。(j22, h53, i38, j15)
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引用次数: 35
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Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal
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