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Designing Unemployment Insurance Systems in Developing Countries: Moral Hazard vs Liquidity Constraints in Chile 发展中国家失业保险制度的设计:智利的道德风险与流动性约束
Pub Date : 2020-05-21 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3607058
K. Sehnbruch
One of the most complex social policy issues that developing countries commonly face is the question of how they can protect the unemployed. However, the analysis of unemployment insurance (UI) in developing economies with large informal sectors is in its infancy, with few papers providing solid empirical evidence. This paper makes several contributions to the development literature: first, it applies Chetty’s 2008 landmark work on UI to a developing country (Chile) and shows that the moral hazard effects expected by policy makers, who designed the system are minimal, while liquidity effects were entirely neglected. By means of an RDD, it analyses the Chilean UI system using a large sample of administrative data, which allows for an extremely precise analysis of how the system is working, thus providing invaluable empirical lessons for other developing countries.

Second, this paper shows that it is not enough merely to quantify an effect such as moral hazard, but to understand its causes and implications. An extended unemployment period stemming from moral hazard has extremely different welfare implications than one stemming from a liquidity effect and should therefore result in different policy recommendations.

Third, our results also highlight that the Chilean UI system is regressive overall, as it protects workers with higher income levels and more stable jobs much more than it protects vulnerable workers, who are also much more likely to become unemployed.

Fourth, this paper shows that it is essential that developing countries should take into account the specific labor market and macroeconomic context when designing social policies as the incentives embedded in such a policy may not be enough to compensate for the limitations that arise from the structure of a labor market.

This research thus has implications for many developing countries, which may also be considering the implementation of some form of UI and/or the partial or complete replacement of existing severance pay legislation with continuous contributions to individual savings accounts, as recommended by the international development institutions. Furthermore, even high-income developing countries, such as Chile, cannot rely on unemployment insurance alone when it comes to protecting workers from the fallout of an economic crisis or rapid changes in the labor market that generate unemployment. Any UI system must also be linked to other social protection mechanisms to provide complimentary benefits to workers with precarious jobs.
发展中国家普遍面临的最复杂的社会政策问题之一是如何保护失业者的问题。然而,对拥有大量非正规部门的发展中经济体的失业保险(UI)的分析尚处于起步阶段,很少有论文提供可靠的经验证据。本文对发展文献做出了几点贡献:首先,它将Chetty 2008年关于UI的里程碑式工作应用于一个发展中国家(智利),并表明设计该制度的政策制定者预期的道德风险效应是最小的,而流动性效应完全被忽略了。通过RDD,它利用大量行政数据样本分析了智利的失业保险制度,从而对该制度的运作方式进行了极其精确的分析,从而为其他发展中国家提供了宝贵的经验教训。其次,本文表明,仅仅量化道德风险等影响是不够的,还要了解其原因和影响。由道德风险引起的延长失业期与由流动性效应引起的延长失业期对福利的影响截然不同,因此应提出不同的政策建议。第三,我们的研究结果还强调,智利的失业保险制度总体上是倒退的,因为它对高收入水平和更稳定工作的工人的保护远远超过对弱势工人的保护,而弱势工人也更有可能失业。第四,本文表明,发展中国家在设计社会政策时必须考虑到特定的劳动力市场和宏观经济背景,因为这种政策所包含的激励措施可能不足以弥补劳动力市场结构所产生的限制。因此,这项研究对许多发展中国家有影响,这些国家也可能按照国际发展机构的建议,考虑执行某种形式的失业补偿和(或)部分或完全取代现有的遣散费立法,继续向个人储蓄帐户缴款。此外,即使是像智利这样的高收入发展中国家,也不能仅仅依靠失业保险来保护工人免受经济危机的影响或劳动力市场的快速变化造成的失业。任何失业保险制度还必须与其他社会保护机制挂钩,为从事不稳定工作的工人提供免费福利。
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引用次数: 0
Relaxing Household Liquidity Constraints through Social Security 通过社会保障放松家庭流动性约束
Pub Date : 2020-05-04 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3593054
S. Catherine, Max Miller, Natasha Sarin
More than a quarter of working-age households in the United States do not have sufficient savings to cover their expenditures after a month of unemployment. Recent proposals suggest giving workers early access to a small portion of their future Social Security benefits to finance their consumption during the COVID-19 pandemic. We empirically analyze their impact. Relying on data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we build a measure of households' expected time to cash shortfall based on the incidence of COVID-induced unemployment. We show that access to 1% of future benefits allows 75% of households to maintain their current consumption for three months in case of unemployment. We then compare the efficacy of access to Social Security benefits to already legislated approaches, including early access to retirement accounts, stimulus relief checks, and expanded unemployment insurance.
失业一个月后,美国超过四分之一的适龄工作家庭没有足够的储蓄来支付支出。最近的提案建议,让工人提前获得未来社会保障福利的一小部分,以资助他们在COVID-19大流行期间的消费。我们对其影响进行了实证分析。根据消费者财务调查(Survey of Consumer Finances)的数据,我们根据covid - 19导致的失业率建立了一个衡量家庭现金短缺预期时间的指标。我们表明,在失业的情况下,获得1%的未来福利可以让75%的家庭维持目前的消费三个月。然后,我们将获得社会保障福利的效力与已经立法的方法进行比较,包括提前获得退休账户,刺激救济支票和扩大失业保险。
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引用次数: 1
Unemployment Insurance, Recalls and Experience Rating 失业保险,召回和经验评级
Pub Date : 2020-04-25 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3589296
Julien Albertini, Xavier Fairise, Anthony Terriau
In the US, almost half of unemployment spells end through recall. In this paper, we show that the probability of being recalled is much higher among unemployment benefit recipients than nonrecipients. We argue that a large part of the observed difference in recall shares is accounted for by the design of the unemployment insurance financing scheme characterized by an experience rating system. We develop a search and matching model with different unemployment insurance status, endogenous separations, recalls and new hires. We quantify what would have been the labor market under alternative financing scheme. In the absence of the experience rating, the hiring and separations would have been higher in the long run and more volatile. Experience rating system contributes significantly to the difference in recalls between the recipients and the nonrecipients.
在美国,近一半的失业期以召回结束。在本文中,我们证明了失业救济金领取者被召回的概率比非失业救济金领取者高得多。我们认为,观察到的召回份额差异的很大一部分是由以经验评级系统为特征的失业保险融资方案的设计造成的。我们建立了一个包含不同失业保险状况、内生离职、召回和新员工的搜索匹配模型。我们量化了在替代融资方案下的劳动力市场。如果没有经验评级,从长远来看,招聘和离职的比例会更高,也会更不稳定。经验评级系统对接受者和非接受者之间的回忆差异有显著影响。
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引用次数: 1
Long-term Outlook for the German Statutory Pension System 德国法定养老金制度的长期展望
Pub Date : 2020-04-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3581216
Matthias Schön
This paper presents long term projections of the German pension system that are based on a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations (OLG). This framework takes into account the two way feedback of both micro and macroeconomic relationships, meaning that households, for example, react to changes in the statutory pension system, such as the retirement age or the replacement rate. Changes in households' behaviour, in turn, impact on macroeconomic developments and public finances. One approach to parametrically reform the pension system would be linking (indexing) the retirement age systematically to increasing life expectancy. The model shows that the resulting increase in employment would also bolster social security contributions and taxes. Moreover, with a rising retirement age and the associated longer periods of work, pension entitlements would increase.
本文提出了德国养老金制度的长期预测是基于一般均衡模型与重叠代(OLG)。该框架考虑到微观和宏观经济关系的双向反馈,这意味着,例如,家庭对法定养恤金制度的变化作出反应,例如退休年龄或替代率。家庭行为的变化反过来又影响宏观经济发展和公共财政。对养恤金制度进行参数化改革的一种方法是系统地将退休年龄与预期寿命的增加联系起来。该模型显示,由此产生的就业增长也会增加社会保障缴款和税收。此外,随着退休年龄的提高和工作时间的延长,养恤金应享权利也会增加。
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引用次数: 8
Rationality Test in the Housing Market: Project-level Evidence from China 房地产市场的合理性检验:来自中国的项目层面证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-07 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3090129
Yifan Chen, Jianhua Gang, Zongxin Qian, Jinfan Zhang
This paper examines the rationality of the residential housing market. We adopt a proprietary dataset covering China’s first-tier cities from 2009 to 2016 that consists of project-level rents and repeated selling prices and identify investors’ “underreaction” phenomenon to the cash flow news. With the benefit of this project-level dataset, we demonstrate that research in this field suffers serious aggregation bias for omitting the heterogeneity in dynamic interactions among micro- and macro-level variables. Aggregation leads to a wrong conclusion that investors’ reaction to cash flow news is nearly rational or they slightly overreact. We therefore argue that research on the pricing behavior in the residential housing market has to be conducted at a disaggregated level.
本文考察了我国住宅市场的合理性。我们采用了一个涵盖2009年至2016年中国一线城市的专有数据集,包括项目级租金和重复销售价格,并确定投资者对现金流新闻的“反应不足”现象。利用这个项目级数据集的优势,我们证明了该领域的研究存在严重的聚集偏差,因为忽略了微观和宏观层面变量之间动态相互作用的异质性。综合分析会得出一个错误的结论,即投资者对现金流消息的反应接近理性,或者反应有些过度。因此,我们认为对住宅市场定价行为的研究必须在分类水平上进行。
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引用次数: 1
Is the Social Safety Net a Long-Term Investment? Large-Scale Evidence from the Food Stamps Program 社会保障网络是一项长期投资吗?来自食品券计划的大规模证据
Pub Date : 2020-04-01 DOI: 10.3386/w26942
M. Bailey, H. Hoynes, Maya Rossin-Slater, Reed Walker
We use novel, large-scale data on 17.5 million Americans to study how a policy-driven increase in economic resources affects children's long-term outcomes. Using the 2000 Census and 2001–13 American Community Survey linked to the Social Security Administration's NUMIDENT, we leverage the county-level rollout of the Food Stamps program between 1961 and 1975. We find that children with access to greater economic resources before age five have better outcomes as adults. The treatment-on-the-treated effects show a 6% of a standard deviation improvement in human capital, 3% of a standard deviation increase in economic self-sufficiency, 8% of a standard deviation increase in the quality of neighbourhood of residence, a 1.2-year increase in life expectancy, and a 0.5 percentage-point decrease in likelihood of being incarcerated. These estimates suggest that Food Stamps’ transfer of resources to families is a highly cost-effective investment in young children, yielding a marginal value of public funds of approximately sixty-two.
我们使用了关于1750万美国人的新颖的大规模数据来研究政策驱动的经济资源增加如何影响儿童的长期结果。利用2000年人口普查和2001-13年美国社区调查与社会保障局的NUMIDENT相关联,我们利用1961年至1975年期间县级食品券计划的推出。我们发现,在5岁之前获得更多经济资源的儿童成年后会有更好的表现。治疗对治疗的效果表明,人力资本改善了6%的标准差,经济自给自足提高了3%的标准差,居住社区的质量提高了8%的标准差,预期寿命延长了1.2年,被监禁的可能性降低了0.5个百分点。这些估计表明,食品券向家庭转移资源对幼儿来说是一项极具成本效益的投资,产生的公共资金边际价值约为62。
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引用次数: 73
A Post-Coronavirus World: 7 Points of Discussion for a New Political Economy 冠状病毒后的世界:新政治经济学的7点讨论
Pub Date : 2020-03-20 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3557738
Usman W. Chohan
The Coronavirus outbreak of 2019-20 has left governments, markets, and civil society reeling through disruptions and damage that shall heal at differing intervals and to differing degrees around the world. The post-Coronavirus economy and polity may, however, be designed and structured based on lessons drawn from the outbreak, as well as on international reactions to the hardships that ensued in its wake. This paper raises 7 points of discussion for international policymakers as the outbreak subsides, aiming to generate a debate around greater post-corona value creation for the public.
2019- 2020年的冠状病毒疫情给各国政府、市场和民间社会带来了混乱和破坏,这些破坏和破坏将以不同的时间间隔和不同程度在世界各地愈合。然而,冠状病毒后的经济和政治可以根据疫情的教训以及国际社会对疫情后困难的反应来设计和构建。随着疫情的消退,本文为国际政策制定者提出了7点讨论,旨在就如何为公众创造更大的冠状病毒后价值展开辩论。
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引用次数: 27
Can Big Data Cure Risk Selection in Healthcare Capitation Programs? A Game Theoretical Analysis 大数据能解决医疗费用分摊计划中的风险选择问题吗?博弈论分析
Pub Date : 2020-03-19 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3556992
Zhaowei She, T. Ayer, Daniel Montanera
Early empirical evidence indicates that Medicare Advantage (MA), the largest capitation payment program in the U.S. healthcare market, unintentionally incentivizes health plans to cherry pick profitable patient types, which is referred to as "risk selection". Motivated by this observation, we study the root causes of risk selection in the MA market design and potential strategies to eliminate risk selection. The existing literature primarily attributes the observed risk selection in MA market to data limitations and low explanatory power (e.g. low R^2) of the current risk adjustment design in the MA market. With the availability of big data and advancements in machine learning (ML) techniques, risk selection due to imperfect risk adjustment is expected to gradually disappear from the MA market. However, our study shows that big data and ML alone cannot cure risk selection in the MA capitation program. More specifically, we show that even if the current MA risk adjustment design becomes informationally perfect (e.g. R^2=1) through availability of big data and advanced ML algorithms, health plans still have incentives to conduct risk selection through strategically subsidizing some subgroups of patients using capitation payments collected from other subgroups, which we call "risk selection induced by cross subsidization". Furthermore, we develop and present selection-proof capitation mechanisms to eliminate this type of risk selection behavior from the MA market. Our findings further indicate that through some small modifications to the existing Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) mechanism, risk selection of this kind could be eliminated from the MA market.
早期的经验证据表明,医疗保险优势(MA),美国医疗保健市场上最大的资本支付计划,无意中激励健康计划挑选有利可图的患者类型,这被称为“风险选择”。基于这一观察结果,我们研究了MA市场设计中风险选择的根本原因以及消除风险选择的潜在策略。现有文献主要将MA市场中观察到的风险选择归因于数据限制和当前MA市场风险调整设计的低解释力(如低R^2)。随着大数据的可用性和机器学习(ML)技术的进步,由于风险调整不完善而导致的风险选择预计将逐渐从MA市场消失。然而,我们的研究表明,大数据和机器学习本身并不能解决MA capitation项目中的风险选择问题。更具体地说,我们表明,即使当前的MA风险调整设计通过大数据的可用性和先进的ML算法在信息上变得完美(例如R^2=1),健康计划仍然有动机进行风险选择,通过使用从其他亚组收取的人头付款对某些亚组患者进行战略性补贴,我们称之为“交叉补贴诱导的风险选择”。此外,我们开发并提出了防选择的资本化机制,以消除MA市场中的这种风险选择行为。我们的研究结果进一步表明,通过对现有的医疗损失率(MLR)机制进行一些小的修改,可以从MA市场中消除这种风险选择。
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引用次数: 4
Opposisjonsstyre: Stortingsvedtak Om Styrkingen Av Ideelle Virksomheter I Velferdssamfunnet (Opposition Rule: Parliament Decisions on the Strengthening of Non-Profit Organizations in the Welfare Society)
Pub Date : 2020-03-13 DOI: 10.18261/issn.2464-3076-2020-01-02
Hans Morten Haugen
Norwegian abstract: Norges to minoritetsregjeringer i perioden 2013–2019 har blitt utfordret av opposisjonen innenfor velferdstjenester og anbud, men kritikken har ikke vært rettet mot ideelle aktører. Ti anmodningsvedtak i perioden 2016–2018 er fattet i Stortinget for å styrke ideelle aktører, og regjeringspartiene har støttet fem av disse. Regjeringen har også blitt mer proaktiv, blant annet gjennom forslag om forskrift for anbud kun for ideelle organisasjoner. Samtlige partier har etterlyst et måltall og en plan for å øke de ideelles andel av de samlede helse- og omsorgstjenestene. Artikkelen foreslår to nye begreper for å beskrive hvordan opposisjonsstyre kan utøves: påleggende, der regjeringen presses av opposisjonen til å treffe nye tiltak, og påvirkende, der regjeringen endrer forståelse av og prioriteringer innenfor et sakskompleks.

English abstract: Norway’s two minority governments from 2013–2019 have been challenged by the opposition in the field of welfare services and tenders, but the criticism has not been directed towards non-profit organizations. Ten decisions by the Storting were made in 2016–2018 based on opposition proposals, to strengthen non-profit actors, and the government parties have voted for five of these. The government has also become more proactive, inter alia by proposing a regulation that allows reserving tenders for non-profit organizations. All parties called for a target and a plan to increase the non-profit organizations’ share of the total health and care services. The article proposes two new concepts to describe how opposition rule is exercised: imposing – where the government is pressured by the opposition to take new measures – and influencing – where the government changes understanding and priorities within a case complex.
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引用次数: 0
HUD Section 811 PRA Project Rental Assistance Program Phase II Evaluation Final Report Implementation and Short-Term Outcomes 住房和城市发展部第811节PRA项目租赁援助计划第二阶段评估最终报告实施和短期成果
Pub Date : 2020-03-09 DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3615819
Melisa Vandawalker, Ian Bruenig, Samuel R. Dastrup, Sara Galantowicz, Gretchen Locke, A. Nichols
The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD)’s Section 811 Project Rental Assistance (PRA) Program provides rental housing assistance to nonelderly people with disabilities. In this second phase of its evaluation of the PRA program, HUD sought to determine the impact of the program on residents’ housing tenancy and use of home and community-based services, characteristics of properties and neighborhoods where assisted residents live, and residents’ healthcare diagnoses and utilization. In order to assess the program’s effectiveness, the study compared short-term outcomes of the PRA program against outcomes for residents in the Section 811 Capital Advance/Project Rental Assistance Contract program (referred to as PRAC in this report), outcomes for people with disabilities in other HUD rental assistance programs, and outcomes for a group of similar people who receive Medicaid but are not assisted by HUD programs.

The evaluation found that the PRA program assists people who are different from people with disabilities in HUD’s other housing assistance programs in their demographic characteristics, the types and sizes of properties they live in, and the characteristics of the neighborhoods where they live. PRA residents have lower incomes, have more chronic and disabling conditions, and are more likely to have had long-term stays in inpatient settings. Looking at early outcomes for a sample of units in just six states, both housing unit and neighborhood quality are lower for PRA units than for PRAC units. PRA units have greater access to public transportation and are in neighborhoods with greater walkability, but PRA residents do not feel as safe in their neighborhoods.
美国住房和城市发展部(HUD)的第811条项目租赁援助(PRA)计划为非老年残疾人提供租赁住房援助。在PRA项目评估的第二阶段,HUD试图确定该项目对居民住房租赁、家庭和社区服务的使用、援助居民居住的物业和社区的特征以及居民的医疗诊断和利用的影响。为了评估该计划的有效性,该研究比较了PRA计划的短期结果与第811条资本预付/项目租赁援助合同计划(本报告中称为PRAC)的居民的结果,其他HUD租赁援助计划中残疾人的结果,以及一组接受医疗补助但未获得HUD计划援助的类似人群的结果。评估发现,PRA项目在人口统计特征、所居住房产的类型和大小以及所居住社区的特征方面,帮助了不同于HUD其他住房援助项目中的残疾人。PRA居民收入较低,有更多的慢性和致残疾病,并且更有可能长期住院。从仅六个州的单元样本的早期结果来看,PRA单元的住房单元和社区质量都低于PRAC单元。PRA单位有更多的公共交通工具,并且位于更适合步行的社区,但PRA居民在他们的社区中并不感到安全。
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引用次数: 0
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Comparative Political Economy: Social Welfare Policy eJournal
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