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Bankroll management in Sit and go poker tournaments 坐着玩扑克锦标赛的资金管理
Pub Date : 2016-10-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I2.1096
Björn Lantz
This study focuses on Sit and go poker tournaments, where a player with an advantage over her opponents needs to manage her bankroll properly. The study applies the Kelly criterion to games that have several outcomes, where the organizer charges a rake. The premise is that an advantage itself is not enough for a poker player to play at any stakes, because risking too large a fraction of the bankroll will result in a negative expected growth rate, even though the game itself is characterized by a positive expected value. Accordingly, this study uses a formula-based approach to address the challenge of identifying games where the player’s current bankroll has the highest expected growth rate, while also considering differences in the rake.
这项研究的重点是“坐着走”扑克锦标赛,在这种比赛中,比对手有优势的玩家需要妥善管理自己的资金。该研究将凯利标准应用于有多种结果的游戏,在这些游戏中,组织者收取了大量费用。前提是,优势本身并不足以让扑克玩家承担任何风险,因为让资金中的太大一部分冒险将导致负的预期增长率,尽管游戏本身的特征是正的期望值。因此,这项研究使用了一种基于公式的方法来解决识别玩家当前资金具有最高预期增长率的游戏的挑战,同时也考虑了收益的差异。
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引用次数: 0
A Public Choice Perspective on the Legalization of Casino Gaming 公共选择视角下的赌场博彩合法化
Pub Date : 2016-10-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I2.1154
Miao He, Ricardo C. S. Siu
The public choice theory is applied in this study to explore the effects of the expected economic benefits and cost of voters in the process of casino legalization. It is shown that in contrast to most voting processes, the emotional inclination of voters and the related changes have an explicit role in determining the decision made on a ballot for casino legalization. A model is therefore proposed based on the existing literature (for e.g., Morton, 1991; Olson, 1965; Riker and Ordeshook, 1968) to show the interactions and decision making process of related policy makers, and beneficiary and anti-gaming groups. The arguments are elaborated and verified by using evidence from New Jersey and Taiwan, where state-wide referendums were adopted as part of the legalization process of casino gaming.
本研究运用公共选择理论,探讨选民在赌场合法化过程中预期经济收益与成本的影响。研究表明,与大多数投票过程相反,选民的情感倾向和相关变化在决定对赌场合法化投票的决定方面发挥了明确的作用。因此,根据现有文献(例如,Morton, 1991;奥尔森,1965;Riker和Ordeshook(1968),以展示相关政策制定者、受益群体和反游戏群体之间的互动和决策过程。这些论点是通过使用新泽西州和台湾的证据来阐述和验证的,这两个州的全民公投被采纳为赌场赌博合法化过程的一部分。
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引用次数: 0
The Demand For Sports Lottery: Evidence from the City of Kumasi in Ghana 体育彩票的需求:来自加纳库马西市的证据
Pub Date : 2016-10-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I2.1173
Akofa Adzo Aflakpui, E. F. Oteng-Abayie
Formalised sports lottery is fast becoming a craze in Ghana, especially amongst the male populace. There is however no documented research on the demand for this product as well as its effects on the population and economy of Ghana as a whole. This study sought to investigate the factors that influence the demand for sports lottery in Ghana. Based on the expected utility hypothesis, a model was constructed using a binary logistic regression to analyse the characteristics that influence the demand for sports lottery in Ghana. Four hundred respondents were employed in this study where it was realized that 92% out of the about 96% males engaged in sports lottery in Ghana were within the age bracket of 21-40 years. Furthermore, 53.6% of those engaged in sports lottery were reported to be unemployed. Price, gender, age, employment status, monthly income and whether a person has won a bet before were discovered to be significant factors of the demand for sports lottery in Ghana. The study also realized that online lotteries were such as MyBet and Supabet were the most preferred to the offline lottery offered by the National Lottery Authority. Therefore the NLA must redesign their product to meet the demand preferences of the patrons.
在加纳,正式的体育彩票正迅速成为一种热潮,尤其是在男性人群中。然而,没有关于这种产品的需求以及它对加纳人口和经济的影响的文献研究。本研究旨在调查影响加纳体育彩票需求的因素。在期望效用假设的基础上,利用二元逻辑回归构建了一个模型来分析影响加纳体育彩票需求的特征。400名受访者在这项研究中受雇,人们意识到,在加纳从事体育彩票的约96%的男性中,有92%在21-40岁的年龄段内。此外,据报道,从事体育彩票的人中有53.6%失业。价格,性别,年龄,就业状况,月收入和是否一个人赢得了赌注之前被发现是加纳体育彩票需求的显著因素。该研究还发现,与国家彩票管理局提供的线下彩票相比,MyBet和Supabet等在线彩票更受欢迎。因此,图书馆必须重新设计其产品,以满足读者的需求偏好。
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引用次数: 5
Late Money and Betting Market Efficiency: Evidence from Australia 后期资金和博彩市场效率:来自澳大利亚的证据
Pub Date : 2016-10-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I2.1246
Marshall K. Gramm, C. N. McKinney, R. Parker
This paper examines the empirical importance of late money on market efficiency in horse race gambling. Our inquiry into the effect of late money on parimutuel pools uses data from Australian thoroughbred horse races over the entire 2006 racing season and includes every race at all thoroughbred tracks. This amounts to 14,854 races with an average of 10.37 starters per race. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the hypotheses that late money is smart money and late money improves market efficiency.
本文考察了后期资金对赛马博彩市场效率的实证意义。我们对后期资金对parimutuel池的影响的调查使用了整个2006赛季澳大利亚纯种马比赛的数据,包括所有纯种马赛道的每场比赛。这相当于14,854场比赛,平均每场比赛有10.37名首发选手。这些证据压倒性地支持这样的假设:迟交的钱是聪明的钱,迟交的钱能提高市场效率。
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引用次数: 0
The university of sydneySocial-Economic Impacts of Sports Betting on Ugandan Youth. The case of Mbale Youth . 悉尼大学体育博彩对乌干达青年的社会经济影响。Mbale Youth的案例。
Pub Date : 2016-10-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I2.1205
Kutosi Ayub Masaba, Johnson Sekakubo, A. Blaszczynski
Sports betting activities, particularly among youth, is increasing rapidly in Ugandan. The aim of this study was to determine the motivation for sports betting among Ugandan youth, and the social economic impact of this form of gambling. In a cross sectional quantitative research design, a questionnaire data was obtained from a sample of 181 youth attending betting houses in the Mbale district.  Results indicated that that most youths were motivated by the desire to win money. Findings also revealed that Ugandan youth socially and economically benefited from sports betting. The study concludes by recommending that even if findings do not show the negative impacts of gambling on youth, there is need for stricter laws to avert any future negative implications.
在乌干达,体育博彩活动,特别是年轻人的体育博彩活动正在迅速增加。本研究的目的是确定乌干达青年体育博彩的动机,以及这种赌博形式的社会经济影响。在横断面定量研究设计中,从Mbale地区参加博彩公司的181名青年样本中获得问卷调查数据。结果表明,大多数年轻人的动机是想赢钱。调查结果还显示,乌干达青年在社会和经济上受益于体育博彩。这项研究的结论是,即使研究结果没有显示赌博对青少年的负面影响,也需要制定更严格的法律来避免任何未来的负面影响。
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引用次数: 2
Is there such a thing as a safe bet 有没有所谓的安全赌注
Pub Date : 2016-08-09 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I1.1159
N. Zafiris
This paper is an attempt to set out a betting strategy appropriate to events with several possible final outcomes which are a) unambiguously defined and b) likely to show fluctuations in the respective probabilities as the event unfolds. It is then shown that, by placing bets of appropriate magnitude and at appropriate times, such as to take advantage of changing odds , it is possible to secure a certain profit, generally in advance of the outcome becoming known, and irrespective of which of the possible outcomes finally materialises. Furthermore, the bettor should enjoy the reassurance of an improving Net Expected Value (NEV), as the event progresses. The procedure, which may be viewed as a multiple hedging one, is suited to in running betting on individual match events, as well as on protracted seasonal events (such as a league championship in football or other sport). The principal requirement is that there be a reasonable expectation of a large amount of alternation in the relative prospects of at least two contenders. The procedure is outlined in general terms and illustrated with reference to real life football matches and league competitions from the 2015/6 season. It is seen to be profitable under the specified conditions. Apparent advantages in betting on draws and on favourites are discussed.
本文试图提出一种适合于具有几种可能的最终结果的事件的投注策略,这些结果是a)明确定义的,b)随着事件的展开,各自的概率可能会出现波动。然后表明,通过在适当的时间投注适当的金额,例如利用不断变化的赔率,可以确保一定的利润,通常在结果已知之前,无论哪种可能的结果最终实现。此外,随着事件的进展,投注者应该享有不断提高的净预期价值(NEV)的保证。该程序可被视为多重套期保值,适用于对个别比赛事件的投注,也适用于长期的季节性事件(如足球或其他运动的联赛冠军)。主要要求是对至少两名竞争者的相对前景有大量交替的合理预期。该程序概述了一般术语,并参考现实生活中的足球比赛和2015/6赛季的联赛比赛进行了说明。在特定的条件下,它被认为是有利可图的。讨论了在平局和热门上投注的明显优势。
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引用次数: 0
A Review Of Regulatory Theory And The U.S. Casino Industry 监管理论与美国博彩业述评
Pub Date : 2016-08-09 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I1.1059
Peter T. Calcagno, Douglas Walker
The casino industry is one of the most stringently regulated industries in the United States. State governments and their regulatory agencies control almost every aspect of the industry. However, U.S. casino regulation has not received much research attention. We examine the five most applicable economic theories of regulation. Since relevant empirical data of regulatory changes for casinos are sparse, we examine trends of the key variables to evaluate these theories. We categorize and examine trends in state and industry characteristics to determine if any one of these theories best explains the regulation of casinos. Based on our review of the state-level data, we conclude that the legalization and regulation of casinos best conform to a Leviathan theory of government in which the primary policy goal is to maximize government revenues.
博彩业是美国监管最严格的行业之一。州政府及其监管机构几乎控制着该行业的各个方面。然而,美国的赌场监管并没有得到太多的研究关注。我们研究了五种最适用的监管经济理论。由于赌场监管变化的相关经验数据很少,我们研究了关键变量的趋势来评估这些理论。我们对州和行业特征的趋势进行分类和检查,以确定这些理论中是否有任何一个能最好地解释赌场的监管。根据我们对州级数据的回顾,我们得出结论,赌场的合法化和监管最符合利维坦政府理论,其中主要政策目标是最大化政府收入。
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引用次数: 7
Analysis of Large Mega Millions Rollovers 大型百万级滚转分析
Pub Date : 2016-08-09 DOI: 10.5750/jgbe.v10i1.1170
S. Lee, Ki C. Han, David Y. Suk, Hyunmo Sung
From May 17, 2002 to December 30, 2014, there were 1,318 Mega Millions drawings and 153 were winning drawings.  In 148 out of 153 winning drawings, there was no winner(s) in the first drawing and the jackpot prize was rolled over and added to the next drawing.  Since the Mega Millions does not have a rollover limit, this process continues until there is an eventual winning ticket. If there are no winners over a month, the jackpot prize will approach $100 million.  As the jackpot prize approaches $100 million, significantly larger additional cash flows into the lottery.  Based on the analysis of 29 large Mega Millions winning drawings (jackpot prize ≥ $100 million), we report the following findings.  First, significantly larger additional money flows into the lottery as the jackpot prize gets larger, and over 90% of the additional cash inflow is spent on Mega Millions tickets.  Second, for the entire sample there does not appear to be reallocating of funds taking place within lottery games.  However, when total sales declines or changes in Mega Millions sales is greater than changes in total lottery sales, a small amount of money (less than $0.20 per capita) being transferred from Instant Games to Mega Millions appears to take place.  Third, zip-codes with a higher average family income or residents with more years of schooling experience a significantly higher demand for Mega Millions tickets.  In addition, as the percentage of white or Asian-Americans in an area increase, the demand for Mega Millions increases by a significant amount.  Lastly, as the jackpot prize gets larger, lottery players from all income levels spend more money on Mega Millions, but over 80% of the additional money comes from consumers belonging to the upper-middle or higher income brackets.
从2002年5月17日到2014年12月30日,共有1318张超级百万彩票抽奖,其中153张是中奖彩票。在153个中奖抽奖中,有148个在第一次抽奖中没有获奖者,头奖奖金被滚动并添加到下一次抽奖中。由于超级百万没有滚动限制,这个过程一直持续到最终的中奖彩票。如果一个月内没有中奖者,头奖奖金将接近1亿美元。随着头奖奖金接近1亿美元,更多的额外现金流入彩票。根据对29张Mega Millions大奖(头奖≥1亿美元)的分析,我们报告了以下发现。首先,随着头奖奖金的增加,更多的额外资金流入彩票,超过90%的额外现金流入用于购买超级百万彩票。其次,对于整个样本来说,似乎没有在彩票游戏中进行资金重新分配。然而,当总销售额下降或超级百万销售额的变化大于彩票总销售额的变化时,就会出现少量资金(人均少于0.20美元)从Instant Games转移到超级百万的情况。第三,平均家庭收入较高的地区或受教育年限较长的居民对超级百万彩票的需求明显更高。此外,随着一个地区白人或亚裔美国人的比例增加,对超级百万彩票的需求也会大幅增加。最后,随着头奖奖金越来越大,所有收入水平的彩票玩家在超级百万上花的钱也越来越多,但超过80%的额外资金来自中上或更高收入阶层的消费者。
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引用次数: 7
Casinos In Asia: Legalizing Gambling In The Chinese Province Of Hainan, The Ideological Obstacle 亚洲的赌场:中国海南省的赌博合法化,意识形态障碍
Pub Date : 2016-08-09 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V10I1.826
Sébastien Goulard
The successful liberalization of the gaming industry in Macau has incited other Asian destinations to reconsider their position on gambling. For the last ten years, new gaming destinations have emerged in Asia. China has still not yet legalized this industry, but since last year, new policies authorizing sport lotteries have been introduced in the province of Hainan. The objective of this measure is to diversify tourism in that province and make Hainan more attractive for visitors. In case of success, this policy could be expanded to other gaming activities and casinos would be legalized in Hainan, as advocated by the provincial government; but legalizing casinos in Hainan may face several obstacles. This paper aims at showing that the success of Asian casino destinations mainly results from China’s ban on gambling. This study will focus on the history of gambling in China, and the reasons for the continuation of gambling prohibition in China. The author will argue that the ideological opposition plays a similar role as religious movements in Western countries. The paper will be illustrated by a literature review analyzing previous examples in other parts of the world.
澳门博彩业的成功开放促使其他亚洲目的地重新考虑它们对博彩业的立场。在过去十年中,亚洲出现了许多新的游戏目的地。中国尚未将这一行业合法化,但自去年以来,海南省出台了授权体育彩票的新政策。这项措施的目的是使海南省的旅游业多样化,使海南对游客更具吸引力。如果成功,这一政策可以扩展到其他博彩活动,赌场将在海南合法化,正如省政府所倡导的那样;但海南赌场合法化可能会面临一些障碍。本文旨在表明亚洲赌场目的地的成功主要源于中国的赌博禁令。本研究将重点关注中国赌博的历史,以及中国继续禁止赌博的原因。作者认为,意识形态上的对立与西方国家的宗教运动有着相似的作用。本文将通过分析世界其他地区以前的例子的文献综述来说明。
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引用次数: 0
Bankroll Management in Large Poker Tournaments 大型扑克锦标赛中的资金管理
Pub Date : 2016-01-06 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V9I3.1074
Björn Lantz
This study focuses on bankroll management, defined as the process of determining the right fraction of the bankroll one should put at risk in a particular advantageous situation, examined in a poker tournament context. The aim of the study is to conduct a theoretical analysis of bankroll management based on the Kelly criterion in a typical large poker tournament, using the actual World Series of Poker Main Event payout table as an example of such tournaments. A main conclusion of this paper is that a long-term profitable poker player’s expected return on investment in tournaments (i.e., the level of advantage) does not provide sufficient information to obtain an optimal bankroll management policy for the player. The level of advantage is obviously an important factor, but the player’s strategic approach to the game, that is, if the player primarily tries to avoid finishing the tournament without a payout or if the player primarily tries to finish in the very top of the ranking, is also very important to consider.
本研究的重点是资金管理,定义为确定一个人应该把资金的正确比例在一个特定的有利情况下,在扑克比赛的背景下进行检查的过程。本研究的目的是在一个典型的大型扑克锦标赛中进行基于凯利标准的资金管理理论分析,使用实际的世界扑克大赛主赛事支付表作为此类锦标赛的一个例子。本文的一个主要结论是,一个长期盈利的扑克玩家在比赛中的预期投资回报(即优势水平)并没有提供足够的信息来为玩家获得最佳的资金管理策略。优势等级显然是一个重要因素,但玩家的游戏策略(游戏邦注:即玩家是否主要试图避免在没有奖金的情况下完成比赛,或者玩家是否主要试图在排名中名列前茅)也是需要考虑的重要因素。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
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