This study examines the relationship between NFL game characteristics and the frequency of fan ratings on the NFL’s website (www.NFL.com). The margin of victory and overall total points scored in a game are shown to be significant determinants of the number of times individual games are rated; suggesting fans enjoy close and high-scoring games. While the actual game characteristics are only known for certain after the game is played, information provided by betting markets show similar predictive power in estimating the number of times a game is rated. Given that betting market data is generated prior to the start of the game, these relationships may allow for improvements in pre-game forecasting of television, or other media, audiences for live sporting events.
{"title":"Measuring and Forecasting Fan Interest in NFL Football Games","authors":"R. Paul, Y. Wachsman, A. Weinbach","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V6I3.611","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V6I3.611","url":null,"abstract":"This study examines the relationship between NFL game characteristics and the frequency of fan ratings on the NFL’s website (www.NFL.com). The margin of victory and overall total points scored in a game are shown to be significant determinants of the number of times individual games are rated; suggesting fans enjoy close and high-scoring games. While the actual game characteristics are only known for certain after the game is played, information provided by betting markets show similar predictive power in estimating the number of times a game is rated. Given that betting market data is generated prior to the start of the game, these relationships may allow for improvements in pre-game forecasting of television, or other media, audiences for live sporting events.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130831605","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
There are varieties of real options, which include shrinking, expanding, switching and abandon options. This paper applies a switching real options approach to the game betting which allows the gamblers to switch between teams during the game. The volatility of odds is not only a source of concern for the gamblers but also a source of profit opportunities. In this paper, we combine features of the odds volatility and options to switch and find that with low switching cost, gamblers can exploit the variability of a team's odds volatility to increase their profits.
{"title":"The Power of Real Options in Games Betting: An Application of Switching Options","authors":"Shin-Yun Wang","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V3I2.544","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V3I2.544","url":null,"abstract":"There are varieties of real options, which include shrinking, expanding, switching and abandon options. This paper applies a switching real options approach to the game betting which allows the gamblers to switch between teams during the game. The volatility of odds is not only a source of concern for the gamblers but also a source of profit opportunities. In this paper, we combine features of the odds volatility and options to switch and find that with low switching cost, gamblers can exploit the variability of a team's odds volatility to increase their profits.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"974 ","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120862546","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Empirical studies of horse race betting in the US, the UK, Australia, and Germany have empirically established the so called favorite-longshot bias. It was found that bets on longshots on average lose much more than bets on favorites. The theoretical literature on wagering markets has offered a variety of explanations for that bias. One of the most prominent is the assumption of a homogeneous bettor population with a preference for risk. However, the risk-love explanation has also been severely challenged. We add to this challenge by proposing a different explanation of the favorite-longshot bias. We show that if populations of bettors have only noisy estimates of horses' true winning probabilities, a favorite-longshot bias will be the market equilibrium outcome even with risk neutral bettors and even if the median estimate is correct. We provide evidence on four different types of bets broadly consistent with the noisy estimates assumption but not with the risk-love explanation.
{"title":"AN ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION OF THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS","authors":"M. Kukuk, S. Winter","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V2I2.532","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V2I2.532","url":null,"abstract":"Empirical studies of horse race betting in the US, the UK, Australia, and Germany have empirically established the so called favorite-longshot bias. It was found that bets on longshots on average lose much more than bets on favorites. The theoretical literature on wagering markets has offered a variety of explanations for that bias. One of the most prominent is the assumption of a homogeneous bettor population with a preference for risk. However, the risk-love explanation has also been severely challenged. We add to this challenge by proposing a different explanation of the favorite-longshot bias. We show that if populations of bettors have only noisy estimates of horses' true winning probabilities, a favorite-longshot bias will be the market equilibrium outcome even with risk neutral bettors and even if the median estimate is correct. We provide evidence on four different types of bets broadly consistent with the noisy estimates assumption but not with the risk-love explanation.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121027705","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Betting lines and scores from the 2009/10 college basketball season for 169 mid-major and major colleges are used to verify the efficiency hypothesis for the betting-market analogy to the CAPM-based market model. As in that model, the portion of the variance in the spreads that is unexplained by the betting lines is the idiosyncratic risk associated with a team’s games. The paper shows that this risk is due to team-specific and conference-specific informational and consistency-of-play factors that impact bettors’ decisions.
{"title":"Information and Idiosyncratic Risk in the NCAA Men's Basketball Betting Market","authors":"I. Horowitz","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V5I3.572","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V5I3.572","url":null,"abstract":"Betting lines and scores from the 2009/10 college basketball season for 169 mid-major and major colleges are used to verify the efficiency hypothesis for the betting-market analogy to the CAPM-based market model. As in that model, the portion of the variance in the spreads that is unexplained by the betting lines is the idiosyncratic risk associated with a team’s games. The paper shows that this risk is due to team-specific and conference-specific informational and consistency-of-play factors that impact bettors’ decisions.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125106409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We extend previous research on higher sales for end-of-the-week lottery drawings to a longer time series and to different lotteries. We find higher sales for end-of-the-week lotteries drawings with Wednesday/Saturday drawings and Tuesday/Friday drawings. Additionally, higher Friday sales from daily lotteries along with results from bonus play opportunities and intraday lottery sales provide evidence suggesting that the leisure time hypothesis is an incomplete explanation for the observed phenomenon. We offer an alternate explanation related to the preferred habitat for liquidity and suggest that an individual's pool of discretionary funds is largest immediately following pay days. It is the fact that the most common pay pattern is weekly or biweekly with payment on Fridays which likely results in higher sales for end-of-the-week lottery drawings.
{"title":"An Examination of Two Competing Hypotheses for the Demand for Lottery Tickets","authors":"Ozzy Akay, Mark D. Griffiths, Drew B. Winters","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V2I1.526","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V2I1.526","url":null,"abstract":"We extend previous research on higher sales for end-of-the-week lottery drawings to a longer time series and to different lotteries. We find higher sales for end-of-the-week lotteries drawings with Wednesday/Saturday drawings and Tuesday/Friday drawings. Additionally, higher Friday sales from daily lotteries along with results from bonus play opportunities and intraday lottery sales provide evidence suggesting that the leisure time hypothesis is an incomplete explanation for the observed phenomenon. We offer an alternate explanation related to the preferred habitat for liquidity and suggest that an individual's pool of discretionary funds is largest immediately following pay days. It is the fact that the most common pay pattern is weekly or biweekly with payment on Fridays which likely results in higher sales for end-of-the-week lottery drawings.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121412493","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In Pelota matches, games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, bets on the winner are made through a middleman who receives 16% of the finally paid amount. The classical decision theory of expected utility maximization can not explain this market assuming bettors are identical. Llorente and Aizpurua (2007) explain the existence of bets in the market under Quiggin’s rank dependent expected utility (RDEU) model. They find that bettors have to be optimistic in order to explain the existence of a bet. Analyzing the way odds are fixed in the market Llorente (2006) finds that assuming equal return on bets there are inefficiencies in the market. In this paper we show that, given an assumption that bettors are rank dependent expected utility maximizers, these inefficiencies tend to disappear.
{"title":"An explanation of inefficiencies in the Pelota betting market: rank dependent expected utility.","authors":"Loreto Llorente","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V1I2.515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V1I2.515","url":null,"abstract":"In Pelota matches, games with two mutually exclusive and exhaustive outcomes, bets on the winner are made through a middleman who receives 16% of the finally paid amount. The classical decision theory of expected utility maximization can not explain this market assuming bettors are identical. Llorente and Aizpurua (2007) explain the existence of bets in the market under Quiggin’s rank dependent expected utility (RDEU) model. They find that bettors have to be optimistic in order to explain the existence of a bet. Analyzing the way odds are fixed in the market Llorente (2006) finds that assuming equal return on bets there are inefficiencies in the market. In this paper we show that, given an assumption that bettors are rank dependent expected utility maximizers, these inefficiencies tend to disappear.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125607058","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Recently I competed in a club golf competition where there was organized parimutuel betting on the outcome. I made an ``across the board'' (ATB) bet of $20 on our team to win, place, and show. Subsequently I wondered whether this was the best thing to do. Hence, this paper examines the theory of an optimal ATB parimutuel bet. The goal is to develop principles that would guide such wagering when a bettor has only limited information about the sizes of the betting pools and the relative probabilities of finish of the various teams.
{"title":"Across-the-board Parimutuel Bets","authors":"W. Hurley","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V1I3.520","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V1I3.520","url":null,"abstract":"Recently I competed in a club golf competition where there was organized parimutuel betting on the outcome. I made an ``across the board'' (ATB) bet of $20 on our team to win, place, and show. Subsequently I wondered whether this was the best thing to do. Hence, this paper examines the theory of an optimal ATB parimutuel bet. The goal is to develop principles that would guide such wagering when a bettor has only limited information about the sizes of the betting pools and the relative probabilities of finish of the various teams.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130716538","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Sally Melissa Gainsbury, Saalem Sadeque, D. Mizerski, A. Blaszczynski
Gambling research often relies on self-report and cross-sectional data which is limited by inaccuracies in recall. Analysis of behavioural data is necessary to advance conceptual understandings of gambling. This paper analysed player account data of 11,394 customers of a large Australian wagering operator over a ten-year period to investigate characteristics and betting patterns of account holders. Comparisons were made between players based on the total number of bets placed. More frequent bettors (those with greater total bet frequency counts), made smaller bets, but bet greater total amounts and lost smaller proportions as compared to less frequent bettors. Less frequent bettors bet larger single bets and lost a greater proportion of their total amounts bet. A minority of bettors accounted for a disproportionately high number of bets but lost the lowest proportion of these. The results indicate that players exhibit differential patterns of betting and subgroups of gamblers can be identified and appropriately targeted with player education and responsible gambling strategies.
{"title":"Wagering in Australia: a retrospective behavioural analysis of betting patterns based on player account data","authors":"Sally Melissa Gainsbury, Saalem Sadeque, D. Mizerski, A. Blaszczynski","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V6I2.581","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V6I2.581","url":null,"abstract":"Gambling research often relies on self-report and cross-sectional data which is limited by inaccuracies in recall. Analysis of behavioural data is necessary to advance conceptual understandings of gambling. This paper analysed player account data of 11,394 customers of a large Australian wagering operator over a ten-year period to investigate characteristics and betting patterns of account holders. Comparisons were made between players based on the total number of bets placed. More frequent bettors (those with greater total bet frequency counts), made smaller bets, but bet greater total amounts and lost smaller proportions as compared to less frequent bettors. Less frequent bettors bet larger single bets and lost a greater proportion of their total amounts bet. A minority of bettors accounted for a disproportionately high number of bets but lost the lowest proportion of these. The results indicate that players exhibit differential patterns of betting and subgroups of gamblers can be identified and appropriately targeted with player education and responsible gambling strategies.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129316434","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The international sports betting markets are becoming more global, but there is still a large concentration of local bettors in gambling markets of individual countries. Home loyalty and other patterns of human behavior might lead to odds for international competitions being different in different countries with less favorable odds being quoted in the home country; the home bias effect. In this paper we explain the logic of this phenomena and examine a small data set to show the existence of the bias in three different sports: tennis, golf, and European football. We also suggest ideas for a more thorough investigation of the home bias phenomenon.
{"title":"Home Bias and International Betting Markets: Can Institutional Constraints and Behavioral Biases Lead to Arbitrage Profits?","authors":"Ludwig B. Chincarini, Chris Contreras","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V4I3.560","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V4I3.560","url":null,"abstract":"The international sports betting markets are becoming more global, but there is still a large concentration of local bettors in gambling markets of individual countries. Home loyalty and other patterns of human behavior might lead to odds for international competitions being different in different countries with less favorable odds being quoted in the home country; the home bias effect. In this paper we explain the logic of this phenomena and examine a small data set to show the existence of the bias in three different sports: tennis, golf, and European football. We also suggest ideas for a more thorough investigation of the home bias phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"74 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"130234562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In two earlier papers, an intricate Jackpot structure and analysis of pseudo-random numbers for Keno in the Australian state of Queensland circa 2000 were described. Aspects of the work were also reported at an international conference . Since that time, many aspects of the game in Australia have changed. The present paper presents more up-to-date details of Keno throughout the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A much simpler jackpot structure is now in place and this is described. Two add-ons or side-bets to the game are detailed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player (ERTP) are presented in all cases.
{"title":"Aspects of Keno Modelling","authors":"S. Sugden","doi":"10.5750/JGBE.V4I3.561","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.5750/JGBE.V4I3.561","url":null,"abstract":"In two earlier papers, an intricate Jackpot structure and analysis of pseudo-random numbers for Keno in the Australian state of Queensland circa 2000 were described. Aspects of the work were also reported at an international conference . Since that time, many aspects of the game in Australia have changed. The present paper presents more up-to-date details of Keno throughout the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A much simpler jackpot structure is now in place and this is described. Two add-ons or side-bets to the game are detailed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player (ERTP) are presented in all cases.","PeriodicalId":109210,"journal":{"name":"The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122539359","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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