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A Note on the Evidence of Adverse Selection from Thoroughbred Wagering – Further Evidence in Australia 关于纯种马赌博逆向选择证据的说明——澳大利亚的进一步证据
Pub Date : 2013-08-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V7I2.758
R. Wrathall
Chezum and Wimmer (2000) show the impact of asymmetric information in the American thoroughbred industry by demonstrating that homebreds (horses retained and raced by their breeders), on average, have lower betting odds than otherwise similar nonhomebreds. In this paper we test their hypothesis in the Australian thoroughbred industry. While we find no relationship between lower betting odds and homebreds when we use their model, we are still able to support their conclusion when we use a logistic model to measure the relationship between homebred and horse performance.
Chezum和Wimmer(2000)展示了信息不对称对美国纯种马行业的影响,他们证明了家庭品种(由饲养者保留和比赛的马)的平均投注赔率低于其他类似的非家庭品种。在本文中,我们在澳大利亚纯种马行业中检验了他们的假设。虽然当我们使用他们的模型时,我们没有发现较低的投注赔率与家种之间的关系,但当我们使用逻辑模型来衡量家种和马表现之间的关系时,我们仍然能够支持他们的结论。
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引用次数: 0
Casinos and economic growth: an update. 赌场与经济增长:最新进展。
Pub Date : 2013-08-28 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V7I2.757
Douglas Walker
As U.S. politicians and voters continue to grapple with the slower-than-expected recovery from the 2007-09 recession, the legalization (or expansion) of commercial casinos has become an increasingly popular policy. Casinos are politically popular because the state government legalizes them, and can thus create a new industry which pays high taxes and may stimulate employment and economic development. Despite the fact that casinos are now widespread in the United States – there are around 1,000 commercial and tribal casinos – the empirical evidence on their economic impacts is still negligible. In two previous studies ( we have tested the relationship between state-level casino revenues and per capita income (i.e., economic growth) to provide evidence on whether or not casinos have a positive economic impact on states’ economies. We have utilized a Granger causality model modified for use with panel data. Our initial evidence, from a paper published in 1998, indicated that casinos do Granger cause economic growth. However, when we re-tested the model using up-to-date data (at the time, through 2005), we found no significant results. The casino industry has grown extensively since 2005, and although the recession of 2007-09 had a negative impact on the casino industry, the national-level revenue numbers are again climbing. We extend our previous analyses in order to provide updated evidence on the economic growth impact of commercial casinos in the United States. Section 2 provides a more detailed background of our previous analysis and an overview of other relevant literature. Section 3 describes the data and model, and provides the results. Section 4 is a discussion and conclusion.
随着美国政客和选民继续努力应对2007-09年经济衰退后慢于预期的复苏,商业赌场合法化(或扩张)已成为一项越来越受欢迎的政策。赌场在政治上很受欢迎,因为州政府将其合法化,从而可以创造一个新的产业,支付高额税收,并可能刺激就业和经济发展。尽管赌场现在在美国很普遍——大约有1000家商业和部落赌场——但它们对经济影响的实证证据仍然微不足道。在之前的两项研究中(我们已经测试了州级赌场收入与人均收入(即经济增长)之间的关系),以提供赌场是否对州经济产生积极经济影响的证据。我们使用了一个格兰杰因果关系模型修改使用面板数据。我们最初的证据来自1998年发表的一篇论文,表明赌场确实格兰杰导致经济增长。然而,当我们使用最新的数据(当时,直到2005年)重新测试该模型时,我们没有发现显著的结果。自2005年以来,博彩业得到了广泛的发展,尽管2007-09年的经济衰退对博彩业产生了负面影响,但全国层面的收入数字再次攀升。我们扩展了之前的分析,以提供有关美国商业赌场对经济增长影响的最新证据。第2节提供了我们之前分析的更详细的背景和其他相关文献的概述。第3节描述了数据和模型,并提供了结果。第四部分是讨论和结论。
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引用次数: 21
GAMBLING ON GAMBLING: FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF RAISING BET LIMITS AND TABLE DIFFERENTIALS 对赌博的赌博:提高投注限额和赌桌差额的财务影响
Pub Date : 2013-05-23 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V7I1.600
Mark T. Spence, S. Sugden, S. Kale
The house advantage for Baccarat is known, hence the theoretical win can be determined. What is impractical to theoretically determine is the frequency and financial implications of extreme events, for example, prolonged winning streaks coupled with various betting patterns. The simulation herein provides such granularity. We explore the effect of following the ‘hot hand’, that is, rapidly escalating bets when players are on a winning streak. To minimize their exposure, casino management sets a table bet maximum as well as a table differential. These figures can and do serve as a means to differentiate one casino from another. As the allowable bet maximum increases so does the total amount bet, which increases the theoretical winnings, thus suggesting that a high bet limit and differential is beneficial for the house. However, the greater are these amounts, the greater the number of shoes that end with players losing relative to a constant betting scenario (the number of times a player wins at all can drop from ~47% of the time to less than a quarter); but there will, on occasion, be more extreme payouts to players. This simulation is therefore intended to help casino managers set betting limits that maximize total winnings while bearing in mind both the likelihood and magnitude of negative outcomes to the casino.
百家乐的庄家优势是已知的,因此理论上的胜利可以确定。理论上无法确定的是极端事件的频率和金融影响,例如,长时间的连胜加上各种投注模式。这里的模拟提供了这样的粒度。我们探讨了跟随“热手”的影响,即当玩家处于连胜状态时迅速增加赌注。为了尽量减少他们的风险,赌场管理设置了赌桌赌注最大值和赌桌差额。这些数字可以并且确实可以作为区分一个赌场与另一个赌场的手段。随着允许的投注最大值的增加,投注总额也会增加,这增加了理论上的奖金,从而表明高投注限额和差额对庄家有利。然而,这些数值越大,玩家输掉的鞋子数量也就越多(游戏邦注:玩家获胜的次数可能会从47%下降到不到25%);但有时会有更极端的支付给球员。因此,此模拟旨在帮助赌场经理设置投注限制,使总奖金最大化,同时牢记赌场出现负面结果的可能性和程度。
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引用次数: 0
WHAT ATTRIBUTES ARE SOUGHT BY CHINESE CASINO VISITORS WHEN THEY VISIT A CASINO 中国赌场游客在访问赌场时寻求哪些属性
Pub Date : 2013-05-23 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V7I1.627
S. H. Chan, P. Wan, M. Speece
Understanding what attributes are sought by casino visitors during their visit to a casino can enable casino operators to enhance the quality of service elements. This study assessed the important casino attributes that casino visitors seek when visiting a casino. The study also seek to identify the major segments of casino visitors with similar preferences for casino attributes, and determine whether difference(s) may exist between segments in terms of trip behavior and socio-demographic characteristics. Using the benefit segmentation approach, quantitative data were collected from 371 Chinese casino visitors. Four distinct segments of Chinese casino visitors were identified; namely games customers, casual tryout customers, employee service customers, and casino goers. Two segments were actually concerned with gaming specifically. Based on the findings, we established that casinos need to identify strategic segments and allocate adequate resources to achieve the competitive advantages of each segment. Casinos also need to develop innovative products or services for particular segments whose members may not see gaming as the main reason to visit casinos. This research highlights the need to use benefit segmentation to understand the visitors to casino properties.
了解赌场访客在访问赌场期间所寻求的属性可以使赌场运营商提高服务元素的质量。这项研究评估了赌场游客在访问赌场时寻求的重要赌场属性。该研究还试图确定对赌场属性具有相似偏好的赌场游客的主要部分,并确定在旅行行为和社会人口特征方面,各部分之间是否存在差异。采用利益分割方法,从371名中国赌场游客中收集了定量数据。研究确定了中国赌场游客的四个不同群体;即游戏客户、休闲试玩客户、员工服务客户和赌场常客。其中有两个部分是专门针对游戏的。根据研究结果,我们确定赌场需要确定战略细分市场,并分配足够的资源来实现每个细分市场的竞争优势。赌场还需要开发创新的产品或服务,以满足某些细分市场的需求,这些细分市场的成员可能不会将博彩视为访问赌场的主要原因。这项研究强调了使用利益细分来了解赌场物业访客的必要性。
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引用次数: 2
Assessment Tool to Measure and Evaluate the Risk Potential of Gambling Products: AsTERiG 衡量和评估赌博产品潜在风险的评估工具:AsTERiG
Pub Date : 2013-05-23 DOI: 10.1089/GLRE.2011.151107
Franz W. Peren
Although most individuals who gamble do so without any adverse consequences, some individuals develop a recurrent, maladaptive pattern of gambling behaviour, often called pathological gambling or gambling disorder, that is associated with financial losses, disruption of family and interpersonal relationships, and co-occurring psychiatric disorders. Identifying whether different types of gambling modalities vary in their ability to lead to maladaptive patterns of gambling behaviour is essential to develop public policies that seek to balance access to gambling opportunities with minimizing risk for the potential adverse consequences of gambling behaviour. Until recently, assessing the risk potential of different types of gambling products was nearly impossible. ASTERIG, initially developed in Germany in 2006-2010, is an assessment tool to measure and to evaluate the risk potential of any gambling product based on scores on ten dimensions. In doing so, it also allows a comparison to be drawn between the addictive potential of different gambling products. Furthermore, the tool highlights where the specific risk potential of each specific gambling product lies. This makes it a valuable tool at the legislative, case law, and administrative levels as it allows the risk potential of individual gambling products to be identified and to be compared globally and across 10 different dimensions of risk potential. We note that specific gambling products should always be evaluated rather than product groups (lotteries, slot machines) or providers, as there may be variations among those product groups that impact their risk potential. For example, slot machines may vary on the amount of jackpot, which may influence their risk potential.
虽然大多数人赌博没有任何不良后果,但有些人会出现反复的、不适应的赌博行为模式,通常被称为病态赌博或赌博障碍,这与经济损失、家庭和人际关系的破坏以及同时发生的精神障碍有关。确定不同类型的赌博模式是否会导致赌博行为的不适应模式,这对于制定公共政策至关重要,这些政策旨在平衡获得赌博机会与最大限度地减少赌博行为潜在不良后果的风险。直到最近,评估不同类型赌博产品的潜在风险几乎是不可能的。ASTERIG最初于2006-2010年在德国开发,是一种评估工具,用于衡量和评估基于十个维度得分的任何赌博产品的风险潜力。这样做,还可以比较不同赌博产品的成瘾性。此外,该工具突出了每个特定赌博产品的特定风险潜力所在。这使得它在立法、判例法和行政层面上成为一个有价值的工具,因为它允许识别个人赌博产品的风险潜力,并在全球范围内和10个不同的风险潜力方面进行比较。我们注意到,应该始终评估特定的赌博产品,而不是产品组(彩票,老虎机)或供应商,因为这些产品组之间可能存在影响其风险潜力的差异。例如,老虎机的累积奖金可能会有所不同,这可能会影响它们的风险潜力。
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引用次数: 13
Over-Valued And Under-Dogged: An Assessment Of The Seeding Of Mid-Major Teams In The Ncaa Men’S Basketball Tournament 被高估和被低估:对Ncaa男子篮球锦标赛中游球队种子的评估
Pub Date : 2013-05-23 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V7I1.626
J. Lackritz, B. Reinig, I. Horowitz
We test whether the NCAA Selection Committee’s tournament seeding process is biased with respect to teams from the Mid-Major conferences, by analyzing Seeds, Spreads, Betting Lines, and the participants’ conference affiliations for the 819 games of the 13 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournaments played from 2000 to 2012. We demonstrate that the Selection Committee overvalues Mid-Major teams that receive a favorable seed and undervalues those that receive unfavorable seeds. Because Mid-Major teams receive more unfavorable seeds than favorable ones, by a nearly two-to-one ratio, the net results are to the detriment of the Mid-Major conferences. We show that the betting market appears to acknowledge the Selection Committee’s bias and makes adjustments.
我们通过分析2000年至2012年13场NCAA男子篮球锦标赛的819场比赛的种子、价差、投注线和参与者所属的会议,来检验NCAA选拔委员会的锦标赛种子过程是否对来自中部主要会议的球队有偏见。我们证明了选拔委员会高估了获得有利种子的中等主要球队,而低估了那些获得不利种子的球队。由于大联盟中部球队收到的不利种子比有利种子多,比例接近2比1,因此最终结果对大联盟中部球队不利。我们发现,博彩市场似乎承认了选拔委员会的偏见,并做出了调整。
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引用次数: 0
PROFITING ON INEFFICIENCIES IN BETTING DERIVATIVE MARKETS: THE CASE OF UEFA EURO 2012 从投注衍生品市场的低效率中获利:以2012年欧足联欧洲杯为例
Pub Date : 2013-05-23 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V7I1.597
Dominic Cortis, Steven D. Hales, F. Bezzina
This paper investigates whether it is possible to profit from market inefficiencies on betting exchanges during short tournaments. We describe how a Monte Carlo simulation method, with an inbuilt noise parameter applied on '1X2' markets, can be used to determine odds for derivative markets. In cases of mismatch between model and market odds, a modified Kelly strategy is proposed to determine the percentage of own funds placed against the market. When this proposal is applied to the UEFA European Nations association football tournament 2012, two important findings emerge: (a) a profit of circa 12% of allocated funds was generated, and (b) the profit is not contingent on the noise parameter, thus indicating the possibility of arbitrage between different betting markets. The proposed method can be extended to other sports provided the competition consists of a group stage held over a short period of time.
本文研究了短期比赛期间投注交易所是否有可能从市场效率低下中获利。我们描述了如何使用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,将内置噪声参数应用于“1X2”市场,以确定衍生品市场的赔率。在模型和市场赔率不匹配的情况下,提出了一种改进的凯利策略来确定自己的资金对市场的投资比例。当这一提议应用于2012年欧洲足联欧洲国家协会足球锦标赛时,出现了两个重要的发现:(a)产生了大约12%的分配资金的利润,(b)利润不取决于噪声参数,因此表明了不同博彩市场之间套利的可能性。所建议的方法可以扩展到其他体育项目,只要比赛包括在短时间内举行的小组赛阶段。
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引用次数: 9
Examining Participation in Sports Betting in Germany 调查参与体育博彩在德国
Pub Date : 2013-03-26 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V6I3.610
P. Wicker, B. Soebbing
Previous research has examined participation in betting in general, while sports bets have not been investigated specifically. The purpose of this study is to investigate the participation in sports betting and the mechanisms to place bets in Germany. Based on the economic household theory, it is assumed that participation in sports betting can be explained by a set of economic, socio-demographic, and lifestyle factors. A convenience sample of German citizens is drawn using an online survey (n=464). The results show that the typical online bettor is a male with high income, low education, and non-German nationality, who plays cards and poker during his leisure time, but does not regularly participate in sport. On the contrary, people betting via automats are predominantly female with low income and high education, who do not play poker, but practice sport in their leisure time. The findings have implications for policy makers.
以前的研究已经调查了一般的赌博参与情况,而体育博彩还没有被专门调查过。本研究的目的是调查参与体育博彩和机制投注在德国。基于经济家庭理论,假设参与体育博彩可以由一系列经济、社会人口和生活方式因素来解释。通过在线调查抽取了德国公民的方便样本(n=464)。结果表明,典型的在线投注者是高收入、低教育水平、非德国国籍的男性,他们在闲暇时间玩纸牌和扑克,但不经常参加体育活动。相反,通过自动取款机下注的主要是低收入、高学历的女性,她们不玩扑克,而是在闲暇时间练习体育运动。这些发现对政策制定者有启示意义。
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引用次数: 11
FORECASTING NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE GAME OUTCOMES RELATIVE TO BETTING SPREADS 预测国家橄榄球联盟的比赛结果相对于投注价差
Pub Date : 2013-03-26 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V6I3.609
W. Mallios
Cointegrated time processes measuring NFL playoff game performances relative to the betting spreads are graphed in terms of candlestick charts and forecast in terms of autoregressive systems with time varying coefficients. Coefficients are modeled in terms of linear regressions on lagged shocks. Estimation is non Bayesian. Forecasts provide measures of market efficiency/inefficiency and outcome volatility. Risk assessment utilizes GARCH-type modeling in estimating volatility. Applications are presented for the New York Giants 2012 playoff games based on a data backlog of three years.
测量NFL季后赛比赛表现与投注价差的协整时间过程以烛台图的形式绘制,并以具有时变系数的自回归系统的形式预测。系数是根据滞后冲击的线性回归建模的。估计是非贝叶斯的。预测提供了衡量市场效率/效率低下和结果波动性的方法。风险评估利用garch模型来估计波动率。纽约巨人队2012年季后赛的申请是基于三年的数据积压。
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引用次数: 0
Does International Simulcast Wagering Reduce Live Handle at Canadian Racetracks 国际联播投注会减少加拿大赛马场的现场处理吗
Pub Date : 2013-03-26 DOI: 10.5750/JGBE.V6I3.612
B. Humphreys, B. Soebbing
Consumer interest in horse racing has declined significantly in North America. In an attempt to reverse this decline, additional gambling opportunities, including simulcast betting, have been added at race tracks. This paper investigates the impact of simulcast betting on live racing handle at Canadian horse racetracks. Using data from the 18 largest Canadian racetracks over the period 1999 through 2006, IV results indicate that increases in remote wagering opportunities in Canada lead to small positive increases in live handle. Simulcast betting opportunities do not cannibalize live wagering, rather they increase live wagering.
在北美,消费者对赛马的兴趣明显下降。为了扭转这种颓势,在赛马场增加了额外的赌博机会,包括同时直播赌博。本文研究了加拿大赛马场同时直播投注对现场赛马手柄的影响。利用1999年至2006年期间加拿大18个最大赛马场的数据,IV结果表明,加拿大远程投注机会的增加导致现场处理的小幅正增长。联播投注机会不会蚕食现场投注,相反,它们会增加现场投注。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
The Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
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