We examine insider trades of bankers as a measure of how much they know relative to outsiders. In contrast to trades of insiders in non-financial firms, trades by bankers are less informative. Although bankers are relatively better at timing their sales, they earn negative long-run abnormal returns on their purchases. This is in marked contrast to insiders in non-financial firms. Even though banks are supposedly more opaque during the crisis, bank insider trades are still relatively uninformative during this period. These results are not driven by differences in idiosyncratic volatility, firm size, governance and compensation structures or routine versus opportunistic trades. Our results suggest that even if banks are transparent according to many standard measures, they are difficult to understand — even for insiders.
{"title":"What Do Bankers Know?","authors":"Renée B. Adams, Yanhui Wu, Qiaoqiao Zhu","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2193986","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2193986","url":null,"abstract":"We examine insider trades of bankers as a measure of how much they know relative to outsiders. In contrast to trades of insiders in non-financial firms, trades by bankers are less informative. Although bankers are relatively better at timing their sales, they earn negative long-run abnormal returns on their purchases. This is in marked contrast to insiders in non-financial firms. Even though banks are supposedly more opaque during the crisis, bank insider trades are still relatively uninformative during this period. These results are not driven by differences in idiosyncratic volatility, firm size, governance and compensation structures or routine versus opportunistic trades. Our results suggest that even if banks are transparent according to many standard measures, they are difficult to understand — even for insiders.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2012-12-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"76836846","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-10-05DOI: 10.1017/CBO9780511599040.014
D. Hirshleifer
An informational cascade occurs when it is optimal for an individual, having observed the actions of those ahead of him, to hollow the behavior of the preceding person without regard to his own information. Among the phenomena that can be explained by informational cascades are conformism at specific times and places, error-prone behavior, and fragility of behaviors.
{"title":"The Blind Leading the Blind: Social Influence, Fads and Informational Cascades","authors":"D. Hirshleifer","doi":"10.1017/CBO9780511599040.014","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511599040.014","url":null,"abstract":"An informational cascade occurs when it is optimal for an individual, having observed the actions of those ahead of him, to hollow the behavior of the preceding person without regard to his own information. Among the phenomena that can be explained by informational cascades are conformism at specific times and places, error-prone behavior, and fragility of behaviors.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"204 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-10-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"82822426","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Entrepreneurial activity is often regarded as an engine for economic growth and job creation. Through tax policy, governments possess a potential lever to influence the decisions of economic agents to start and close small businesses. In Germany, the top marginal income tax rates were reduced exclusively for entrepreneurs in 1994 and 1999/2000. These tax reforms provided two naturally defined control groups that enable us to exploit the legislation changes as "natural experiments". First, the tax rate reductions did not apply to freelance professionals (Freiberufler), and second, entrepreneurs with earnings below a certain threshold were not affected. Using data from two different sources, the SOEP and the Mikrozensus (LFS), we analyse the effect of the tax cuts on transitions into and out of self-employment and on the rate of self-employment. We apply a "difference-in-difference-in-difference" estimation technique within a discrete time hazard rate model. The results indicate that the decrease in tax rates did not have a significant effect on the self-employment decision.
{"title":"Income Taxes and Entrepreneurial Choice: Empirical Evidence from Germany","authors":"Frank M. Fossen, Viktor Steiner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.910229","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.910229","url":null,"abstract":"Entrepreneurial activity is often regarded as an engine for economic growth and job creation. Through tax policy, governments possess a potential lever to influence the decisions of economic agents to start and close small businesses. In Germany, the top marginal income tax rates were reduced exclusively for entrepreneurs in 1994 and 1999/2000. These tax reforms provided two naturally defined control groups that enable us to exploit the legislation changes as \"natural experiments\". First, the tax rate reductions did not apply to freelance professionals (Freiberufler), and second, entrepreneurs with earnings below a certain threshold were not affected. Using data from two different sources, the SOEP and the Mikrozensus (LFS), we analyse the effect of the tax cuts on transitions into and out of self-employment and on the rate of self-employment. We apply a \"difference-in-difference-in-difference\" estimation technique within a discrete time hazard rate model. The results indicate that the decrease in tax rates did not have a significant effect on the self-employment decision.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"27 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77329663","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Johan Gielis showed that all closed curves might be considered as some sort of deformed ellipses. He gave a superformula to parameterize such shapes. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the parameters of Gielis' superformula from empirical data. We use an optimum search algorithm on multi-modal surfaces - the Genetic Algorithm- to find the best fit. Randomly scattered starting points have been used for the search of an optimum solution. Some examples are based on simulated data, while the solution of a real problem also may be attempted. It has also been shown that the parameters of the superformula are not uniquely related to the data from which they are estimated. This lack of uniqueness may pose the problems of interpretation of parameters.
Johan Gielis证明了所有的闭合曲线都可以被认为是某种变形的椭圆。他给出了一个超公式来参数化这些形状。本研究尝试从经验数据中估计吉利斯超公式的参数。我们使用了一种多模态曲面的最优搜索算法——遗传算法——来寻找最佳的拟合。随机分散的起始点被用来寻找最优解。一些例子是基于模拟数据的，同时也可以尝试解决实际问题。还表明，超公式的参数与估计它们所依据的数据并不是唯一相关的。这种唯一性的缺乏可能会造成参数解释的问题。
{"title":"On Estimation of the Parameters of Gielis Superformula from Empirical Data","authors":"Sudhanshu K. Mishra","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.905051","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.905051","url":null,"abstract":"Johan Gielis showed that all closed curves might be considered as some sort of deformed ellipses. He gave a superformula to parameterize such shapes. In this study an attempt has been made to estimate the parameters of Gielis' superformula from empirical data. We use an optimum search algorithm on multi-modal surfaces - the Genetic Algorithm- to find the best fit. Randomly scattered starting points have been used for the search of an optimum solution. Some examples are based on simulated data, while the solution of a real problem also may be attempted. It has also been shown that the parameters of the superformula are not uniquely related to the data from which they are estimated. This lack of uniqueness may pose the problems of interpretation of parameters.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"31 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2006-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"75102556","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This study analyzes the performance of mature investments made by venture-capital (VC) funds that specialize in financing minority business enterprises. We explore the hypothesis that VCs focusing on investing in minority businesses earn attractive returns because this market niche is underserved. Minority VC funds collectively earned yields on their realized investments that were estimated to be broadly equivalent to those of the mainstream VC industry. However, these yields vary greatly from fund to fund. VC fund traits that predict high yields on individual investments are identified by estimating multivariate regressions explaining net investment returns. Copyright (c)2008 The Ohio State University.
{"title":"Venture Capital Investment in Minority Business","authors":"W. Bradford, Timothy Bates","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.796406","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.796406","url":null,"abstract":"This study analyzes the performance of mature investments made by venture-capital (VC) funds that specialize in financing minority business enterprises. We explore the hypothesis that VCs focusing on investing in minority businesses earn attractive returns because this market niche is underserved. Minority VC funds collectively earned yields on their realized investments that were estimated to be broadly equivalent to those of the mainstream VC industry. However, these yields vary greatly from fund to fund. VC fund traits that predict high yields on individual investments are identified by estimating multivariate regressions explaining net investment returns. Copyright (c)2008 The Ohio State University.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"304 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78345514","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
The author analyzes a general-equilibrium model of a heterogeneous agents economy in which the agents are subject to borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. In particular, he addresses the impact of these frictions on entrepreneurial investment and illustrates the trade-off between production risk and precautionary savings faced by the entrepreneur. In contrast to other studies, the author's results suggest that, when entrepreneurs' earnings are poorly diversified and production risk mainly affects the total output produced, the underaccumulation of capital in the entrepreneurial sector of the model economy is less likely to hold, because of a strong precautionary savings motive. Furthermore, the presence of these frictions on entrepreneurial investment exacerbates the overaccumulation of capital in the corporate sector of the economy that is reported in Bewley models with uninsurable labour income risk.
{"title":"Uninsured Idiosyncratic Production Risk with Borrowing Constraints","authors":"Francisco Covas","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.697302","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.697302","url":null,"abstract":"The author analyzes a general-equilibrium model of a heterogeneous agents economy in which the agents are subject to borrowing constraints and uninsurable idiosyncratic production risk. In particular, he addresses the impact of these frictions on entrepreneurial investment and illustrates the trade-off between production risk and precautionary savings faced by the entrepreneur. In contrast to other studies, the author's results suggest that, when entrepreneurs' earnings are poorly diversified and production risk mainly affects the total output produced, the underaccumulation of capital in the entrepreneurial sector of the model economy is less likely to hold, because of a strong precautionary savings motive. Furthermore, the presence of these frictions on entrepreneurial investment exacerbates the overaccumulation of capital in the corporate sector of the economy that is reported in Bewley models with uninsurable labour income risk.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"23 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-04-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"85495892","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper explores the relationship between the relative size of the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector, economic growth, and poverty alleviation using a new database on the share of SME labor in the total manufacturing labor force. Using a sample of 45 countries, we find a strong, positive association between the importance of SMEs and GDP per capita growth. The data do not, however, confidently support the conclusions that SMEs exert a causal impact on growth. Furthermore, we find no evidence that SMEs alleviate poverty or decrease income inequality.
{"title":"Smes, Growth, and Poverty","authors":"T. Beck, Asli Demirgüç-Kunt, R. Levine","doi":"10.3386/W11224","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/W11224","url":null,"abstract":"This paper explores the relationship between the relative size of the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector, economic growth, and poverty alleviation using a new database on the share of SME labor in the total manufacturing labor force. Using a sample of 45 countries, we find a strong, positive association between the importance of SMEs and GDP per capita growth. The data do not, however, confidently support the conclusions that SMEs exert a causal impact on growth. Furthermore, we find no evidence that SMEs alleviate poverty or decrease income inequality.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"129 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2005-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78251039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes a risk averse entrepreneur's real investment decision under incomplete markets. The entrepreneur smoothes his intertemporal consumption by investing in both a risk-free asset and a risky asset, which allows him to partially hedge against the project cash flow risk. We show that risk aversion lowers both the project value upon investment and the option value of waiting to invest through the precautionary saving effect. Furthermore, risk aversion delays investment since the project value is reduced more than the option value to invest. It is also shown that although hedging can reduce the cash flow risk, it may have a positive or negative return effect, depending on the correlation between the cash flow risk and the market. Consequently, investment timing is not monotonic with the extent of hedging opportunity. Finally, welfare implications of hedging are analyzed.
{"title":"Investment, Hedging, and Consumption Smoothing","authors":"Jianjun Miao, Neng Wang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.565601","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.565601","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes a risk averse entrepreneur's real investment decision under incomplete markets. The entrepreneur smoothes his intertemporal consumption by investing in both a risk-free asset and a risky asset, which allows him to partially hedge against the project cash flow risk. We show that risk aversion lowers both the project value upon investment and the option value of waiting to invest through the precautionary saving effect. Furthermore, risk aversion delays investment since the project value is reduced more than the option value to invest. It is also shown that although hedging can reduce the cash flow risk, it may have a positive or negative return effect, depending on the correlation between the cash flow risk and the market. Consequently, investment timing is not monotonic with the extent of hedging opportunity. Finally, welfare implications of hedging are analyzed.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"65 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2004-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78609120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes institutional arrangements for public debt management by reviewing the experience of OECD countries during the late 1980s and 1990s. It discusses principal-agent issues arising from the delegation of authority from the Minister of Finance to the debt management office and describes how countries have designed governance structures and control and monitoring mechanisms to deal with these issues. The paper also discusses what lessons emerging market countries and transition countries can draw from the experience of advanced OECD countries. The OECD experience clearly indicates that-regardless of whether the debt management office is located inside or outside the Ministry of Finance-four issues are of vital importance: 1) Giving priority to strategic public policy objectives rather than tactical trading objectives. 2) Strengthening the institutional capacity to deal with financial portfolio management and with the public policy aspects of debt management. 3) Modernizing debt management. 4) Creating mechanisms to ensure successful delegation and accountability to the Ministry of Finance and Parliament.
{"title":"Institutional Arrangements for Public Debt Management","authors":"Eriko Togo, J. Dethier, Elizabeth Currie","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-3021","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-3021","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes institutional arrangements for public debt management by reviewing the experience of OECD countries during the late 1980s and 1990s. It discusses principal-agent issues arising from the delegation of authority from the Minister of Finance to the debt management office and describes how countries have designed governance structures and control and monitoring mechanisms to deal with these issues. The paper also discusses what lessons emerging market countries and transition countries can draw from the experience of advanced OECD countries. The OECD experience clearly indicates that-regardless of whether the debt management office is located inside or outside the Ministry of Finance-four issues are of vital importance: 1) Giving priority to strategic public policy objectives rather than tactical trading objectives. 2) Strengthening the institutional capacity to deal with financial portfolio management and with the public policy aspects of debt management. 3) Modernizing debt management. 4) Creating mechanisms to ensure successful delegation and accountability to the Ministry of Finance and Parliament.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"8 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2003-04-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"84296320","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper looks at competitive interactions between Airbus and Boeing in very large aircraft. It concludes that Boeing attempted to preempt Airbus in introducing a new product in this space but failed to do so because of the incredibility, given the assumption of value maximization, of self-cannibalization. A theoretical model is used to illustrate this credibility constraint, and an assortment of evidence-involving pro forma financial valuations, product market data (on prices and quantities), capital market reactions to key events, and qualitative information on Boeing's organizational structure and recent changes to it-is assembled to support the hypothesis that the constraint on self-cannibalization ultimately proved decisive.
{"title":"Airbus vs. Boeing in Superjumbos: A Case of Failed Preemption","authors":"B. Esty, P. Ghemawat","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.302452","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.302452","url":null,"abstract":"This paper looks at competitive interactions between Airbus and Boeing in very large aircraft. It concludes that Boeing attempted to preempt Airbus in introducing a new product in this space but failed to do so because of the incredibility, given the assumption of value maximization, of self-cannibalization. A theoretical model is used to illustrate this credibility constraint, and an assortment of evidence-involving pro forma financial valuations, product market data (on prices and quantities), capital market reactions to key events, and qualitative information on Boeing's organizational structure and recent changes to it-is assembled to support the hypothesis that the constraint on self-cannibalization ultimately proved decisive.","PeriodicalId":11044,"journal":{"name":"delete","volume":"33 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2002-02-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"80432708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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