The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World最新文献

英文中文

Violence amidst virus 病毒中的暴力

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-6

Soumyanetra Munshi

引用次数: 0

Developing economic herd immunity in the face of a pandemic1 面对大流行，发展经济群体免疫力

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-11

Parikshit Ghosh

Covid-19 is an aggregate productivity shock but the magnitude of the shock varies widely across sectors and households. As a result, it is also a shock to the income distribution. A second feature of the pandemic is that the virus creates a classic negative externality-greater economic activity spreads the disease faster but agents do not internalize this beyond personal health risk. Borrowing techniques from the optimal taxation literature, this chapter analyses how these twin problems can be addressed using tax-transfer policies and economic incentives. I show that there is no conflict between efficiency and equity-policies which reduce the disease burden optimally must also redistribute from agents and sectors that have suffered relatively smaller losses to those that have been beset with big shocks. Lags in income assessment can be overcome by paying a universal basic income upfront and postponing tax liabilities. Even from a public health perspective, an egalitarian response to the heterogeneous impact of Covid-19 can be more effective than blanket measures like lockdowns coupled with fiscal conservatism. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

2019冠状病毒病是一次总体生产率冲击，但冲击的程度因部门和家庭而异。因此，它也对收入分配造成冲击。大流行的第二个特征是，病毒造成了典型的负外部性——经济活动越活跃，疾病传播得越快，但代理人并没有将其内在化，超出了个人健康风险。本章借用最优税收文献中的技术，分析了如何利用税收转移政策和经济激励来解决这两个问题。我表明，效率与公平之间并不存在冲突——最优减少疾病负担的政策也必须从遭受相对较小损失的机构和部门重新分配给遭受重大冲击的机构和部门。收入评估的滞后可以通过预先支付全民基本收入和推迟纳税义务来克服。即使从公共卫生的角度来看，对Covid-19的异质影响采取平等主义的应对措施，也可能比封锁和财政保守主义等一揽子措施更有效。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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引用次数: 0

Coping with Covid-19 and its consequences 应对Covid-19及其后果

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-16

A. Mukherji, Arjun Shatrunjay

Covid-19‘s outbreak resulted in a nation-wide disruption of economic activity. Using data collected by CMIE, Consumer Pyramids data, we discuss the effects of the Covid-19 outbreak on household consumption and its constituent components in this chapter. We describe how income and consumption patterns of households adjust when facing an economy-wide lockdown. We focus on the extent of income smoothing that was possible across different socio-economic groups to understand the nature of risk-mitigating behaviour that households had access to. Finally, we utilize MGNREGA data on household demand for labour and availability of work under India’s employment guarantee act to describe the extent of distress faced by rural households. This allows us to provide a comprehensive narrative of household income and consumption adjustments in response to the outbreak of Covid-19. One takeaway based on the current data available is a sudden and rapid increase in inequality during the lockdown. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

新冠肺炎疫情导致全国经济活动中断。利用CMIE、消费者金字塔数据收集的数据，我们在本章中讨论了Covid-19疫情对家庭消费及其组成部分的影响。我们描述了家庭的收入和消费模式如何在面临经济全面封锁时进行调整。我们关注不同社会经济群体的收入平滑程度，以了解家庭能够获得的风险缓解行为的性质。最后，我们利用MGNREGA关于印度就业保障法下家庭劳动力需求和工作可用性的数据来描述农村家庭面临的困境程度。这使我们能够全面介绍为应对Covid-19疫情而进行的家庭收入和消费调整。根据现有数据得出的结论是，在封锁期间，不平等现象突然而迅速地加剧。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

引用次数: 0

Impact of the coronavirus pandemic on de-globalization 冠状病毒大流行对去全球化的影响

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-13

Ranajoy Bhattacharyya, Anupriya Gangopadhyay, Abhilasha Pandey

In this chapter, we argue that the economic devastation caused by the coronavirus pandemic has forced governments to attach a higher weight to social welfare over other political objectives in determining trade policies. We make this point by looking at the pandemic package announced by the Indian government during the initial stages of the coronavirus episode. We then analyse this argument in the context of an extended version of the protection for sale model to conjecture about the possible short-run and long-run implications of the pandemic on globalization and its reverse. In our framework, in the short run governments are free to choose unilateral tariff levels according to the changed circumstances. In the long run, these unilateral tariff levels are set by a process of bargaining with trading partners. Three factors emerge as important in determining the future course of globalization: the continued importance given to social welfare, the extent of labour intensity of the import-competing sector and the relative bargaining power of the country. In general, countries attaching more importance to social welfare will reduce tariffs and ease out of the de-globalization process if they have a relatively capital-intensive import-competing sector and low bargaining power in trade negotiations. However, countries with labour-intensive import-competing sectors and some bargaining power in trade negotiations may increase tariffs and further contribute to the de-globalization process. The analysis also gives some rationale to the Indian government’s self-reliance slogan during the announcement of the pandemic economic package and its relative inaction in actual policy front. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

在本章中，我们认为，冠状病毒大流行造成的经济破坏迫使政府在确定贸易政策时将社会福利置于其他政治目标之上。我们通过查看印度政府在冠状病毒事件初期宣布的大流行一揽子计划来说明这一点。然后，我们在扩展版的销售保护模式的背景下分析这一论点，以推测大流行对全球化及其逆转可能产生的短期和长期影响。在我们的框架中，短期内政府可以根据变化的情况自由选择单方面的关税水平。从长远来看，这些单边关税水平是通过与贸易伙伴讨价还价的过程确定的。在决定全球化的未来走向方面，有三个因素显得很重要:对社会福利的持续重视、进口竞争部门的劳动强度程度以及国家的相对议价能力。一般来说，更重视社会福利的国家如果拥有相对资本密集的进口竞争部门和较低的贸易谈判议价能力，就会降低关税，并从去全球化进程中解脱出来。但是，拥有劳力密集的进口竞争部门和在贸易谈判中具有一定议价能力的国家可能会提高关税，进一步促进去全球化进程。分析还为印度政府在宣布疫情经济一揽子计划时提出的自力更生口号以及在实际政策方面的相对不作为提供了一些理由。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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引用次数: 0

Covid-19 pandemic Covid-19大流行

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-21

Sutirtha Bandyopadhyay, Bipasha Maity

引用次数: 0

The macroeconomic impact of Covid-19 on the Indian economy 新冠肺炎疫情对印度经济的宏观经济影响

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-10

Ajitava Raychaudhuri

Covid-19 pandemic has not only brought health contagion across countries, but affected the interdependent global economy severely. The Indian economy is no exception, but it has a distinction. The economy was already facing a macroeconomic crisis before the onset of Covid-19 in the form of deficiency of aggregate demand leading to unintended inventory accumulation in various sectors of the economy and slowdown of GDP growth. Covid just made the problem worse. The components of aggregate demand were subdued for various reasons. Current consumer expenditure showed further decline due to a rising uncertainty and widening income inequality. Investment did not respond to Reserve Bank’s efforts in either reducing cost of capital or increasing liquidity on account of both business uncertainty and bank apathy. The current account in international trade showed improvement not in response to increase in global demand but rather to a significant slowdown of import due to a sluggish Indian economy. The only component which is left is government expenditure which is expected to follow Keynesian pump-priming theory. However, aggregate supply experienced sectoral negative shocks due to sudden lockdown and reverse migration of labour force. Thus, the economy shows lower than expected performance in the immediate short run, but in the medium and long term one cannot guarantee a sustained growth trajectory either without additional policy interventions. The chapter explores such macroeconomic effects in terms of some variants of aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) framework, introducing uncertainty and supply shocks in both static and growth perspective. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

新冠肺炎疫情不仅在各国之间造成健康传染，也严重影响了相互依存的全球经济。印度经济也不例外，但它有一个区别。在新冠疫情爆发之前，中国经济已经面临宏观经济危机，其表现形式是总需求不足，导致经济各部门意外库存积累，GDP增长放缓。Covid只是让问题变得更糟。由于各种原因，总需求的组成部分受到抑制。由于不确定性上升和收入不平等扩大，目前的消费支出进一步下降。由于业务的不确定性和银行的冷漠，投资对储备银行降低资金成本或增加流动性的努力没有反应。国际贸易经常账户的改善并非是对全球需求增长的回应，而是对印度经济低迷导致的进口大幅放缓的回应。剩下的唯一组成部分是政府支出，预计将遵循凯恩斯的刺激理论。然而，由于劳动力的突然封锁和反向迁移，总供给经历了行业负面冲击。因此，经济在短期内的表现低于预期，但在中长期内，如果没有额外的政策干预，也无法保证持续的增长轨迹。本章根据总需求(AD)和总供给(AS)框架的一些变体探讨了这种宏观经济效应，从静态和增长的角度介绍了不确定性和供给冲击。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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引用次数: 0

Corona pandemic and the changing global economy 新冠疫情与不断变化的全球经济

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-1

R. Bhattacharyya, A. Dastidar, S. Sikdar

The largest unprecedented and devastating health shock of the twenty-first century appeared with the outbreak of Covid-19 virus. It has brought the world to a standstill and thrown before it the challenge of ‘life or livelihood’. Along with massive economic disruption, it has brought considerable human suffering, and significantly affected socio-cultural relationships, behavioural patterns and psychological attitudes governing human interactions. This introductory chapter seeks to provide an overview of the impact of this pandemic on various aspects of the economy and human life output, employment, trade patterns, educational platforms, changes in social relations, gender discrimination and behavioural patterns. It also attempts to explore the extent of preparedness of South Asian countries, and in particular India, to implement revival policies to overcome the crisis. The chapter also tries to analyse and provide a broad overview of revival policy options for combating possible global recession. Finally, the various issues explored in different chapters of this volume in connection with the corona pandemic are also briefly presented herein. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

随着Covid-19病毒的爆发，出现了21世纪前所未有的最严重和最具破坏性的卫生冲击。它使世界陷入停滞，并向它提出了“生命还是生计”的挑战。随着大规模的经济中断，它给人类带来了相当大的痛苦，并严重影响了社会文化关系、行为模式和支配人类互动的心理态度。本导论章旨在概述这一流行病对经济和人类生活产出、就业、贸易模式、教育平台、社会关系变化、性别歧视和行为模式等各个方面的影响。它还试图探讨南亚国家，特别是印度在执行复兴政策以克服危机方面的准备程度。本章还试图分析和提供一个广泛的复兴政策选项，以应对可能的全球衰退。最后，本文还简要介绍了本卷不同章节中探讨的与冠状病毒大流行有关的各种问题。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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引用次数: 0

Brothers in arms? Covid-19 and Hindu-Muslim conflict in India1 战友?2019冠状病毒病与印度的印度教-穆斯林冲突

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-7

Anirban Mitra, A. Mukherji

Recurrent episodes of Hindu-Muslim violence have plagued India for many years. The Covid-19 pandemic poses new challenges against this backdrop of religious conflict. We explore the performance of various Indian districts in terms of their Covid-19 cases alongside their historical proclivities towards Hindu-Muslim violence. The link between inter-faith cooperation in an area and its subsequent performance in terms of Covid-19 cases is theoretically ambiguous. It may be that areas characterised by low(er) religious antagonism are better able to harness trust within and across communities to jointly battle the spread of the pandemic. Equally, the continual presence of religious violence may induce cooperation within each community and thus check the spread of the virus in riot-prone areas. Combining several district-level datasets, we uncover a robust correlation between various Covid-related outcomes and past conflict measures. Specifically, we find that higher levels of prior Hindu-Muslim conflict are associated with a lower number of Covid-19 infections, deaths and active cases. This pattern is consistent and holds across a wide range of specifications. Our empirical analysis therefore finds strong support for the latter channel. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

多年来，印度教徒和穆斯林之间反复发生的暴力事件一直困扰着印度。在宗教冲突的背景下，新冠肺炎疫情带来了新的挑战。我们探讨了印度各区在新冠肺炎病例方面的表现，以及它们在印度教-穆斯林暴力事件中的历史倾向。就新冠肺炎病例而言，一个地区的宗教间合作与其后续表现之间的联系在理论上是模糊的。宗教对抗程度较低的地区可能更有能力利用社区内部和社区之间的信任，共同抗击疫情的蔓延。同样，宗教暴力的持续存在可能促使每个社区内部进行合作，从而遏制病毒在易发生骚乱地区的传播。结合几个区级数据集，我们发现各种与covid相关的结果与过去的冲突措施之间存在强大的相关性。具体来说，我们发现先前的印度教-穆斯林冲突水平较高，与Covid-19感染、死亡和活跃病例数量较低有关。此模式是一致的，并且适用于广泛的规范。因此，我们的实证分析为后一种渠道提供了强有力的支持。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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引用次数: 0

Riding the wave or going under? The Covid-19 pandemic and trust in governments 乘风破浪还是沉沦?Covid-19大流行与对政府的信任

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-4

Catherine Bros

This chapter investigates the nature of the surge in the approval ratings of leaders of ten countries between January 1 and mid-August 2020. These increases occurred in many countries at the same time as the rise in the number of Covid-19 cases and the issuance of stay-at-home orders and liberties’ restrictions. Some authors have argued that these increases in popularity signalled a decisive change in citizens’ political demand in favour of expertise and technocratic forms of government. However, these surges may also illustrate a standard rally-around-the-flag effect that was triggered by a feeling of insecurity in the face of a new menace. The analysis conducted in this chapter tends to favour the latter hypothesis. It is shown that changes in leaders’ popularity have more to do with the severity of the measures taken, which may have provided a sense of security rather than the trajectory of the number of Covid-19 cases and hence the actual management of the epidemic. The analysis undermines the idea that the Covid-19 dramatically changed political demand and represented a critical juncture. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

本章调查了2020年1月1日至8月中旬10个国家领导人支持率飙升的本质。这些增长发生在许多国家，与此同时，新冠肺炎病例数也在增加，并发布了居家令和自由限制。一些作者认为，这些受欢迎程度的增加标志着公民政治需求的决定性变化，即支持专业知识和技术官僚形式的政府。然而，这些激增也可能说明了一种标准的团结效应，这种效应是由面对新的威胁时的不安全感引发的。本章的分析倾向于后一种假设。研究表明，领导人受欢迎程度的变化更多地与采取的措施的严重程度有关，这些措施可能提供了一种安全感，而不是与新冠肺炎病例数量的变化轨迹以及实际的疫情管理有关。这一分析打破了新冠疫情极大地改变了政治需求并代表了一个关键时刻的观点。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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引用次数: 0

The Covid-19 pandemic and its impact on global political economy 新冠肺炎大流行及其对全球政治经济的影响

The COVID-19 Pandemic, India and the World

Pub Date : 2021-09-08 DOI: 10.4324/9781003220145-3

R. Bhattacharya, Ujjwal Kango

The Covid-19 pandemic is likely to have a significant impact on the global political economy through acceleration of incipient trends. In this chapter, we focus on three such economic trends-the changes in the labour market brought about by technological changes, the re-organisation of global value chains and changes in social welfare regimes. These economic trends are also likely to rhyme well with a fourth political trend-the rise of populism across the world. Together, these trends can pose significant disruption to the model of globalisation that had consolidated in the last four decades. Going beyond its immediate impact on health, output and employment, the Covid-19 pandemic may well turn out to be the point of inflection in global political economy. © 2022 selection and editorial matter, Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar and Soumyen Sikdar;individual chapters, the contributors.

新冠肺炎大流行可能会加速初期趋势，对全球政治经济产生重大影响。在本章中，我们将集中讨论三个这样的经济趋势——技术变革带来的劳动力市场的变化、全球价值链的重组和社会福利制度的变化。这些经济趋势也可能与第四种政治趋势——全球民粹主义的兴起——相吻合。这些趋势加在一起，可能对过去40年巩固起来的全球化模式造成重大破坏。除了对健康、产出和就业的直接影响之外，新冠肺炎大流行很可能成为全球政治经济的拐点。©2022选择和编辑事项，Rajib Bhattacharyya, Ananya Ghosh Dastidar和Soumyen Sikdar;个人章节，贡献者。

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