S. Nurdiati, E. Khatizah, M. Najib, Linda Leni Fatmawati
El Nino is a global climate phenomenon caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino has a powerful effect on the intensity of rainfall in several areas in Indonesia. El Nino impacts can be minimized by predicting the El Nino index from the sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 area. Therefore, many researchers have tried to predict sea surface temperature, and many prediction data are available, one of which is ECMWF. But, in reality, the ECMWF data still contains systematic errors or bias towards the observations. Consequently, El Nino predictions using ECMWF data are less accurate. For that reason, this study aims to correct the ECMWF data in the Nino 3.4 area using statistical bias correction with a quantile mapping approach. This method uses ECMWF data from 1983-2012 as training data and 2013-2018 as testing data. For this case, the results showed that 60% of El Nino's predictions on the testing data had improved the mean value. Also, all of El Nino's predictions on the testing data have improved the standard deviation value. Moreover, data testing's expected error can be corrected for all months in the 1st to 4th lead times. But, in the 5th to 7th lead times, only November-June can be corrected.
{"title":"El nino index prediction model using quantile mapping approach on sea surface temperature data","authors":"S. Nurdiati, E. Khatizah, M. Najib, Linda Leni Fatmawati","doi":"10.24042/DJM.V4I1.7595","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24042/DJM.V4I1.7595","url":null,"abstract":"El Nino is a global climate phenomenon caused by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean. El Nino has a powerful effect on the intensity of rainfall in several areas in Indonesia. El Nino impacts can be minimized by predicting the El Nino index from the sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 area. Therefore, many researchers have tried to predict sea surface temperature, and many prediction data are available, one of which is ECMWF. But, in reality, the ECMWF data still contains systematic errors or bias towards the observations. Consequently, El Nino predictions using ECMWF data are less accurate. For that reason, this study aims to correct the ECMWF data in the Nino 3.4 area using statistical bias correction with a quantile mapping approach. This method uses ECMWF data from 1983-2012 as training data and 2013-2018 as testing data. For this case, the results showed that 60% of El Nino's predictions on the testing data had improved the mean value. Also, all of El Nino's predictions on the testing data have improved the standard deviation value. Moreover, data testing's expected error can be corrected for all months in the 1st to 4th lead times. But, in the 5th to 7th lead times, only November-June can be corrected.","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"34 1","pages":"79-92"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"74628882","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Doi: 10.24042/djm.v4i1.7737 Confidence interval estimation of parameters determines the value interval, which is calculated based on statistical measurements and has specific estimates probability that contains the actual parameters. A method is needed to estimate the parameters' confidence interval, and the methods used are the Score method and the Bootstrap method. This study aims to estimate parameters by using the maximum likelihood estimation method and analyze the reliability of the aircraft engine cooling system's lifetime that follows the Gamma Distribution, and estimate the confidence interval of the parameters.
{"title":"Confidence interval estimation of gamma distribution lifetime data using score and bootstrap methods","authors":"Larasati Larasati, Rudi Ruswandi, Fitriani Fitriani","doi":"10.24042/DJM.V4I1.7737","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24042/DJM.V4I1.7737","url":null,"abstract":"Doi: 10.24042/djm.v4i1.7737 Confidence interval estimation of parameters determines the value interval, which is calculated based on statistical measurements and has specific estimates probability that contains the actual parameters. A method is needed to estimate the parameters' confidence interval, and the methods used are the Score method and the Bootstrap method. This study aims to estimate parameters by using the maximum likelihood estimation method and analyze the reliability of the aircraft engine cooling system's lifetime that follows the Gamma Distribution, and estimate the confidence interval of the parameters.","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"87 1","pages":"93-100"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-03-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"77244084","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"tisztességtelen kereskedelmi gyakorlatok szabályozása és joggyakorlata Magyarországon","authors":"József Zavodnyik","doi":"10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/7","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/7","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>-</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"1 1","pages":"165-188"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"83179295","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"tisztességtelen kereskedelmi gyakorlatok szabályozása és joggyakorlata Lengyelországban","authors":"Aneta Wiewiórowska-Domagalska, Áron Balogh","doi":"10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/8","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/8","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>-</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"15 1","pages":"189-211"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"72639497","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"tisztességtelen kereskedelmi gyakorlatok szabályozása és gyakorlata Csehországban","authors":"Rita Simon","doi":"10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/6","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>-</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"6 1","pages":"139-163"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"88867365","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"tisztességtelen kereskedelmi gyakorlatok szabályozása és joggyakorlata Romániában","authors":"Bálint Kovács, Áron Balogh","doi":"10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"1 1","pages":"213-241"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"91198431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"fogyasztói adásvétel egyes kérdéseinek szabályozása és joggyakorlata Szlovákiában","authors":"Péter Mészáros","doi":"10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/5","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/5","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>-</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"22 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78464112","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"fogyasztói adásvétel egyes kérdéseinek szabályozása és joggyakorlata Csehországban","authors":"Jiří Hrádek","doi":"10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.24169/DJM/2020/1-2/1","url":null,"abstract":"<jats:p>-</jats:p>","PeriodicalId":11442,"journal":{"name":"Dwight's Journal of Music","volume":"25 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-02-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"78555435","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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